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Thread: OIL

  1. #181
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    Brent oil reached 6 year lows


    Brent oil prices fell more than 3% to a fresh 6-year low of USD 37.09/barrel on worries the supply glut is here to stay for a long time.
    Brent Jan futures currently trade 3.1% lower at USD 37.11/barrel. Prices are down for the seventh consecutive session and are on track to suffer losses for the second consecutive year.
    Across the pond, the WTI Jan futures are currently down 2.68% at USD 34.66/barrel. A stronger USD ahead of the Wednesday’s FOMC decision only adds to the bearish pressure on oil.

  2. #182
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    Crude Oil organized inside the bearish channel – Analysis - 21/12/2015

    Crude oil price keeps its organized trading inside the bearish channel that appears on chart, which is supported by the negative pressure offered by the EMA50, which supports the continuation of the bearish trend in the upcoming period, waiting to break 35.13 level to confirm opening the way to achieve more decline on the short term and medium term basis, as the negative targets extend to reach 30.00.
    Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by holding below 37.75 level.
    Expected trading range for today is between 33.00 support and 37.75 resistance.
    Expected trend for today: Bearish



  3. #183
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    Oil Advances as Saudis Cut Ties With Iran After Embassy Attacked

    Oil rose as Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran a day after its embassy in Tehran was attacked to protest the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.Futures climbed as much as 3.5 percent in New York, extending Thursday’s 1.2 percent advance. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of repercussions and protesters assaulted the embassy with rocks and firebombs on Saturday. The following day Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir gave Iran’s ambassador 48 hours to leave Riyadh.The breakdown of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are on opposite sides of Middle East conflicts from Syria to Yemen, is preventing oil from following other commodities lower after Chinese stocks slumped 7 percent, forcing a trading halt. The Middle East accounted for about 30 percent of global oil output in 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Prices last week capped the biggest two-year loss on record amid speculation a global glut will be prolonged as U.S. crude stockpiles expanded and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandoned output limits.
    WTI, Brent
    West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose as much as $1.28 to $38.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $37.41 as of 10:26 a.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was about 82 percent higher than the 100-day average. Prices lost 11 percent in December for a second monthly decline.Brent for February settlement traded at $37.89 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, up 1.6 percent, after earlier rising 3.3 percent. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of 48 cents to WTI. Brent slid 35 percent last year for a third annual drop.The Saudi-Iran crisis is the worst between the two regional powers since the late 1980s, when the Sunni-led kingdom suspended ties with Shiite-ruled Iran after its embassy was attacked following the death of Iranian pilgrims during Hajj in Mecca.
    Oil Output
    Saudi Arabia produced 10.25 million barrels a day in December, helping to keep daily OPEC output above 32 million barrels for a seventh month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Iran pumped 2.7 million barrels a day and is seeking to boost exportsonce international sanctions are lifted.
    Iran will raise exports by 500,000 barrels a day within a week of sanctions being removed, said Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. The country will add another 500,000 barrels a day in a second phase within six months after the curbs end, he said.
    Russia’s crude output set another post-Soviet record in December, Energy Ministry data show. The country’s crude and gas condensate production rose to 10.825 million barrels a day, beating November’s record by 0.4 percent, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the data.

  4. #184
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    Oil down again to 12-year low
    Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Thursday, lurching again to 12-year lows as new financial market tumult in China brought a $30 per barrel handle within view.Oil has fallen every day this year, losing nearly 10 percent in a sudden dive that makes last year's Goldman Sachs (N:GS) warning of sub-$30 crude seem not so outlandish after all."Can we go down another $3 a barrel? In percent terms, that's another 10 percent and could happen in a matter of one or two days of trading," said Greg Sharenow, executive vice-president overseeing a $16 billion commodities portfolio for the Pacific Investment Management Company in Newport Beach, California.Global oil benchmark Brent and U.S. crude futures fell to nearly $32 a barrel on Thursday, their lowest since at least 2004, after another free fall in the Chinese stock market rattled investors already concerned by the world glut in oil.Although oil prices later bounced off the day's lows as some bearish traders took profits on short positions, few dealers were willing to call an end to the 18-month slump."I wouldn't say it's a given right now that we will break below $30, but I think before the first quarter we will," said Doug King, fund manager in London for the $220 million Singapore-based Merchant Commodity Fund."And the reason for that is you're not stopping enough production where it needs to be shut, like in the U.S."U.S.government data on Wednesday showed a 10.6 million-barrel surge in gasoline supplies, the biggest weekly build since 1993, rattling investors already concerned by near-record production and massive stockpiles around the world.Brent (LCOc1) settled down 48 cents at $33.75, after sliding to a low of $32.16, a level last seen in April 2004.U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CLc1) finished down 70 cents at $33.27, after hitting a low of $32.10, the lowest since late 2003.Even so, some traders think the oil rout has gone too far, too fast since the start of the year. After a frenetic fall of nearly 6 percent in European trading, crude prices retraced much of those losses in mid-morning trade in New York as those with short positions took profit from the four-day slide.

  5. #185
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    Oil trades below $30 a barrel for first time in 12 years
    Oil fell briefly below $30 a barrel on Tuesday, extending a relentless selloff that has wiped almost 20 percent off prices this year amid deepening concerns about fragile Chinese demand and the absence of output restraint.The day's near 4 percent drop marks a seventh day of losses for oil. Traders have all but given up attempting to predict where the new-year rout will end, with momentum-driven dealing and overwhelmingly bearish sentiment engulfing the market. Some analysts warned of $20 a barrel; Standard Chartered (L:STAN) said fund selling may not relent until it reaches $10.By Tuesday, the crash had become almost self-fulfilling, with speculators too afraid to buy for fear of being burned by another false bottom.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude(WTI) (CLc1) was down $1.19 at $30.22 per barrel as of 2:19 p.m. EST (1919 GMT), a 3.7 percent loss, after touching a low of $29.93, which was last seen in December 2003."The momentum is too strong to the bearish side, even if fundamentally nothing has changed," said Dominick Chirichella, a senior partner at Energy Management Institute.With prices now below break-even costs for many producers, particularly in the once-thriving U.S. shale patch, and the costly Canadian oil sands producers barely making $15 a barrel, an extended slump has caused financial pain to flare across the world, threatening corporate bankruptcies and fiscal strain.Benchmark Brent crude (LCOc1) had dropped 97 cents to $30.58 a barrel, for a 3.1 percent loss, after hitting a low of $30.34.Prices firmed early in the day after a deadly suicide bombing rocked central Istanbul, and Nigeria's oil minister said a "couple" of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members had requested an emergency meeting.But they then nosedived anew after the United Arab Emirates oil minister quashed talk of a possible meeting, saying the group strategy was working. OPEC has rejected calls by some of its members to curb output, opting instead to pump full throttle to defend market share rather than shore up prices.Oil has tumbled more than 18 percent this year alone, the worst seven-day run since the financial crisis. The long list of negative factors also includes the weakening economy and ailing stock market of No. 2 consumer China, the rising U.S. dollar, which makes oil more costly, and the surprising resilience of U.S. shale drillers in the face of the price slide.Adding to supply fears, Iraq, the second-biggest OPEC producer, plans to export a record of around 3.63 million barrels per day in February, said trade sources.

  6. #186
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    Crude sinks 4 % as market braces for more Iranian Oil.


    Crude future plunged more than 4 percent to near 12 year lows on Friday as the market braced for increased Iranian oil exports, with the lifting of international sanctions possible within days.

    The international atomic energy agency could issue its report on Iran’s compliance with an agreement to curb its nuclear program during a Friday meeting in Vienna, potentially triggering the lifting of western sanctions.

    U.S crude future were 5 percent lower at $29.64 per barrel at 1053 GMT, after posting the first significant gains for 2016 in the previous session. The contract earlier hit $29.39, the lowest since November 2003.

    The key theme for 2016 will be real fundamental adjustment that can rebalance markets to create the birth of a new bull market, which we still see happening in late 2016.

    Other was more concerned about the impact of new exports from Iran. While expert warned that not all sanctions may be lifted immediately once the agreement on its nuclear program came into effect, any additional oil would add to a glut that has pushed prices into a deep slump since mid-2014.

    That means a drop toward $25 is quite possible, but not much lower than that.






    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Mirza
    PCM Brokers
    Executive coordinator.


  7. #187
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    OPEC sees oil market re balancing in 2016, but Iran to counter non-OPEC decline.
    OPEC forecast on Monday that oil supply from non-member countries will post a larger-than-expected decline this year due to the collapse in prices, boosting the need for crude from the producer group.Supply outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would decline by 660,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016, led by the United States, OPEC said in a report. Last month, OPEC predicted a drop of 380,000 bpd."The analysis indicates that 2016 will be a supply-driven market. It will also be the year when the re balancing process starts," OPEC said."Non-OPEC marginal barrel production in the next six months will be sensitive to sustained low oil prices."A drop in non-OPEC supply would reduce a supply glut which has prompted oil prices to collapse to below $28 a barrel, the lowest since 2003. OPEC's 2014 strategy shift to defend market share and not prices helped deepen the decline.The price drop has started to slow the development of relatively expensive supply sources such as U.S. shale oil and forced companies to delay or cancel billions of dollars worth of projects, putting some future supplies at risk. U.S. output will average 13.50 million bpd this year, the report said, down 380,000 bpd from 2015 and the largest drop outside OPEC. Output is also vulnerable in places such as the North Sea, Latin America and Canada, OPEC said.But OPEC's report makes no mention of the supply impact of the lifting of Western sanctions on member-country Iran, which on Monday said it was increasing output by 500,000 bpd - which would fill most of the hole left by non-OPEC members.The United Arab Emirates' energy minister, in the first comment by a Gulf OPEC member about Iran since most sanctions were lifted on Tehran, said anyone increasing output during the current oversupply would worsen the situation.For now, OPEC said it pumped less oil in December, reducing the excess in the market.Production including returning OPEC member Indonesia fell by 210,000 bpd to 32.18 million bpd in December, the report said, citing secondary sources.The report points to a 530,000-bpd supply surplus this year if the group keeps pumping at December's rate, down from 860,000 bpd implied in last month's report.OPEC left its 2016 global oil demand growth forecast little changed, predicting global demand would rise by 1.26 million bpd, marking a slowdown from 1.54 million bpd in 2015.

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    Crude sharply weaker


    Crude oil prices fell smartly in Asia on Wednesday with the advent of an expected surge in Iranian crude on the market the main focus.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for March delivery dropped 1.17% to $29.20 a barrel.Investors await the release of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report on Wednesday, delayed a day because of the Martin Luther King Jr holiday in the U.S. Seprate data from the U.S. Department of Energy will be released on Thursday.On Tuesday morning, China released preliminary data that showed demand for crude in 2015 surged by 2.5% on an annual basis to 10.32 million bpd. The figures may help ease persistent worries of moderate demand growth in the face of near-record supply.Overnight, U.S. crude futures closed significantly lower on Tuesday on a volatile day of trading, as investors continued to digest Iran's historic return to global energy markets and reports of record annual demand in China while oil prices remained at near 12-year lows.On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for March delivery traded between $28.61 and $30.25 a barrel before closing at $28.84, up 0.29 or 1.02% on the day. In spite of the slight gains, North Crude sea futures have still plummeted by more than 22% in January. In Asian trading on Sunday night, brent futures dipped below $28 a barrel to hit a 13-year low. Meanwhile, the spread between the U.S. and international benchmarks of crude stood at 0.88, below Monday's level of 1.27 at the close of trading.Investors continued to react to Saturday's Implementation Day announcement after a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that the Persian Gulf state completed the steps necessary to restrict its nuclear testing program. The assessment helped unlock a bevy of long-term economic sanctions that limited Iranian exports to around 1 million barrels per day, significantly below pre-sanction levels above 3 million bpd in 2011. Iran is expected to ramp up exports by 500,000 bpd before expanding the total to 1 million bpd in six to seven months. Within a year, Iran is optimistic that its export total could approach 3.4 million bpd.Iran's economy has suffered mightily over the last decade, constrained by heavy sanctions that limited the nation from exporting crude to only a handful of countries approved by a group of Western Powers. In recent months, however, Iran has reportedly lined up customers to purchase about 300,000 bpd, as financial restrictions continue to be eased. Short-term fluctuations in crude prices over the next few weeks could depend on how quickly Iran unloads ultralight oil stored in offshore tankers onto markets through Asia and Europe.
    Iranian exporters will likely trade with traditional buyers from Asian buyers in India, while also sending approximately 200,000 bpd to European purchasers from Greece, Spain and Italy, according to the Financial Times.

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    Oil price rise on hopes of crude output cut.
    oil prices rise on Tuesday in another volatile session on hopes oil producers would pare production to alleviate the supply excess that has punished equity prices and pushed oil values to 12-year lows.Nervous investors put more money into low-risk yen, Swiss franc, gold, U.S. and German government debt as they await more clues whether the Federal Reserve and other central banks would provide support to stabilize markets that have been roiled partly due to worries about weakening economic growth in China.
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its two-day policy meeting, which begins later Tuesday, and signal it may not raise rates again, perhaps until mid-2016 at the earliest."It's going to go back and forth, and it looks like it's going to all depend on what the price of oil does today," said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Tactical Management in Greenwich, Connecticut.
    Top OPEC and Russian oil industry officials stepped up vague talk on Monday of possible joint action to remedy one of the worst supply gluts in decades, though there were others, including Kuwait, who say they doubt it will happen as long as others are increasing their output.
    Brent crude was last up 36 cents, or 1.18 percent, at $30.86 a barrel, and U.S. crude was last up 21 cents, or 0.69 percent, at $30.55 per barrel.

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    Oil prices extend gains on slide in dollar


    crude oil prices extended gains from the previous session on Thursday, as a weaker dollar and ongoing yet unconfirmed talk of producers potentially meeting to discuss output cuts lifted the market despite record U.S. stocks.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 crude futures were trading at $32.39 per barrel at 0031 GMT on Thursday, up 11 cents from the previous session's close when they rallied 8 percent from below $30 per barrel.Analysts said that prices had recovered support from a sliding dollar, as well as from ongoing yet unconfirmed talk of a potential meeting by major oil producers to cut output in support of prices, which have fallen around 70 percent since mid-2014.


    But the main feature of oil trading in the past few weeks has been volatility, with prices lashing out up and down, with over 10 percent price swings within two trading sessions frequently occurring since mid-January."The weaker U.S. dollar provided some interim support to the commodity complex, but volatility in crude oil remains extreme. Climbing U.S. crude stocks remain an ongoing threat to further price weakness," ANZ bank said.

 

 
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