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  1. #641
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 21 September 2017

    • FOMC statement drove price action yesterday
    • UK retail sales beat expectations
    • Theresa May’s Brexit speech in Florence expected tomorrow afternoon

    Market moves yesterday were largely motivated by the FOMC statement which was slightly more hawkish than what the market had expected. The USD rallied and 2y US Treasury yields surged in response.
    The price action most likely was driven by the surprising shift in the Fed’s “dot plot.” 13 of 17 FOMC participants now believe one or more rate hikes this year is appropriate.
    Fed funds futures markets are now pricing in more than a 60% probability of a December hike. In line with this, we continue to expect the incoming data, including upcoming prints on inflation, to lead to a third rate increase this year at the December meeting.
    The FOMC also announced the beginning of balance sheet normalization next month which was in line with expectations as it had been well signposted to the market.
    Barclays Research expects “the actual amount of runoff to be less than implied by the cap sizes…” and for the balance sheet to “…to normalize at about $3trn in approximately three years…”.
    UK retail sales surprised to the upside yesterday, coming in at 1%m/m (vs. consensus 0.2%m/m) This was primarily driven by strength in non-food and online retailing.
    This beat saw GBPUSD trade up above 1.3600 briefly, before the market looked to fade the move ahead of the FOMC.
    We believe that the details of the retail sales, combined with the information in the latest BoE agents’ summary, support our view of a BoE hike in November. However, the subdued longer-term outlook for households, due to negative real wage growth, may limit the potential for further hikes.
    Focus now turns to Theresa May’s Brexit speech in Florence, expected tomorrow afternoon. The Speech will clearly set the tone for the next move in GBP in the short term ahead of a quiet week of data, next week in the UK.

  2. #642
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 September 2017

    • New threats from North Korea weighs on risk sentiment
    • PM May’s speech in Florence in focus today
    • General elections will be held this weekend in Germany and New Zealand

    Asian equity markets have followed their US counterparts lower this morning after a threat by North Korea to send a hydrogen bomb into the Pacific weighed on risk sentiment.
    USDJPY fell by as much as 0.7% driven by safe haven demand but the biggest move yesterday came in Indian assets after Bloomberg reports that the government is considering measures to boost growth, which would widen the fiscal deficit.
    PM May’s Brexit speech in Florence, expected to take place around 14.00, will be in focus today and it be the first big Brexit-specific speech by the PM following the General Election back in June.
    Barclays Research believes that “…the challenge for the PM in her speech will be to appear constructive to her EU partners, so as to advance the negotiation process, while at the same time not angering those within her own party, who may prefer a less accommodative course vis-à-vis the EU in the negotiations…”.
    While some central banks have begun a normalization of interest rates, a majority remain in wait-and-see mode. Norges Bank kept its rhetoric and policy setting unchanged yesterday as did the SARB (South Africa) and the central bank of Taiwan.
    German elections will be held this Sunday and polls currently show that another grand coalition is the most likely outcome, but an alternative outcome cannot be fully discounted.
    For example, a large increase in the share of the anti-European AfD could reduce the leeway for further European integration.
    New Zealand also heads to the polls on Sunday which should be close given that the gap between the ruling National Party and the opposition Labour Party has narrowed.
    Recent price action suggests that a Labour victory could weigh heavily on NZD.

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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 25 September 2017

    • Angela Merkel wins fourth term as German Chancellor but faces coalition tussle
    • GBP under pressure after PM May’s Brexit speech disappointed and Moody’s downgraded the UK
    • Fourth round of UK/EU negotiations and a number of central banks in focus this week

    Angela Merkel won her fourth term as German Chancellor but both Merkel’s CDU and the SPD got their fewest votes in decades. With the SPD ruling out a coalition, the most likely outcome will be a CDU/Greens/FDP government (Jamaica), although negotiations will take time
    The AFD did better than expected highlighting that the global decline in mainstream politics has reached Germany.
    EUR opened marginally lower with EURUSD dipping below 1.1900 before retracing
    Prime Minister May’s Brexit speech in Florence underwhelmed markets with its lack of detail. Some had hoped that that May would make concessions in her speech but the only important ‘new news’ was a formal acknowledgement of the need for a two-year transition period (as previously proposed by Chancellor Hammond).
    Further pressure on GBP originated from Moody’s downgrade of the UK’s rating to Aa2 late Friday, as they play catch up with other agencies that had downgraded the UK last summer. GBP sold off c. 0.5% initially in an illiquid session just before the close, with GBPUSD dipping to lows of 1.3451 (Bloomberg) before regaining some of its losses to trade back above 1.3500 overnight.
    We continue to see downside risks to GBP given the lack of clarity over a number of key measures, including the “Divorce Bill”. Looking ahead, the next key events in the Brexit saga are this week’s fourth round of UK/EU negotiations; and the UK Conservative party conference on 1-4 October.
    Elsewhere, NZD fell c. 1.1% (vs. USD) amid disappointment after the incumbent National Party failed to get a majority in the weekend vote, with both the National Party and Labour going into negotiations with other parties to form a coalition.
    After the Fed kept the December meeting live last week, Fed speakers and Friday’s US PCE inflation data will be watched ahead of a potential US tax reform proposal later this week. Elsewhere, we expect the RBNZ (Wednesday), Banxico (Thursday), BoT, CNB (Wednesday) and Banrep (Friday) to keep policy unchanged.

 

 
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