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  1. #831
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 July 2018

    • Stocks rebound as trade tensions appear to ease
    • GBP under pressure on Trump Brexit comments
    • Barclays Research revise BoE call for August and now expect a hike


    Stocks in the US rebounded yesterday and Asian stocks look set to follow suit as trade tensions appeared to ease with China refraining from detailing retaliation plans against threatened US tariff increases (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research think “the Chinese government is likely reevaluating its strategy, and moving from the current tit-for-tat approach towards more controlled and selective retaliation, while accelerating China’s opening up and domestic reforms”
    In the UK, market reaction to the release of the White Paper was muted, however overnight GBP came under pressure as US President Donald Trump warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May that her Brexit proposal could “kill” any future US trade deal
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3095 ahead of 1.3000, with resistance at 1.3365. They expect EURGBP will trade within a 40 pip range for now, with 0.8800-0.8900 wider range
    Barclays Research have revised their BoE call for August and now expect a hike
    The MPC will likely be satisfied with the latest data supporting Q2 GDP at 0.4% q/q and deliver a rate hike in August; three members voted previously for such a decision. This view is not supported by our macroeconomic forecasts, but based on recent policy statements, resilient data and more constructive Brexit negotiations
    Elsewhere, the ECB released the minutes of the June meeting. It did not deviate from the script in the earlier press conference, emphasizing the importance of forward guidance as a policy tool

  2. #832
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 July 2018

    • Global equities gained last week despite escalating geopolitical tensions
    • Domestic UK data unlikely to materially alter BoE rate hike expectations
    • Oil prices dropped on potential supply increases


    US and Asian equity markets mostly gained last week despite an abundance of trade-protectionism headlines, political turmoil in the UK, and geopolitical tension during President Trump’s European visit and NATO meetings. To start the week, Asian shares fell however on soft Chinese activity data
    USD rose against most currencies last week on concerns about the escalating trade conflict, even gaining against traditional safe havens such as JPY and CHF
    Last week saw geopolitical tensions escalating as the US Administration announced more tariffs on China and reiterated potential tariffs on cars from the EU. A so-far restrained response from China helped to stabilize sentiment towards the end of last week
    However, Barclays Research remains cautious on local market assets of countries that are exposed to escalating trade tensions
    This week's EU-China and EU-Japan summits could provide more signals on trade negotiations and could pose further headline risks
    GBPUSD was mainly driven by domestic UK political developments, which overshadowed the slightly more constructive rhetoric from the EU on Brexit progress. Barclays Research believes that “this week’s labour market, inflation and retail sales (…) are unlikely to materially alter market expectations of an August rate hike (c.20bp priced in) given the recent hawkish MPC rhetoric”
    Oil prices fell overnight on the back of reports that the US Administration is considering tapping into the emergency stockpiles to ease pricing tensions ahead of the November mid-term elections (Bloomberg)

  3. #833
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 July 2018

    • Global equities performed mixed yesterday
    • UK politics continued to make headlines but GBP remained relatively unchanged
    • Oil priced dropped on Saudi supply increases

    US equities closed mixed yesterday with energy stocks coming under pressure due to sliding oil prices, while financials were supported by better US earnings. Asian stocks mostly continued to trade lower on the back of soft Chinese activity data
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index has fallen since the start of the week ahead of Powell’s testimony tonight
    In the UK, the Customs bill was passed yesterday keeping PM May’s Brexit strategy on track, however EURGBP traded in a tight range which suggests investors’ fatigue with such news
    A potential resignation speech by Boris Johnson may pose further headline risk before an earlier than expected recess of Parliament for Summer on Thursday
    Today’s focus is on domestic labour market data at 9.30 as BoE’s Haldane has previously outlined the importance of this release for the fundamental economic outlook
    Crude oil prices dropped by more than 4% yesterday after Saudi Arabia increased its exports to Asia, and at the same time headlines suggest that the US could add to global supply and tap its strategic reserves to stabilize markets when sanctions on Iran come back in full later in the year
    The Antipodeans rallied overnight with AUD gaining on RBA minutes which indicated that keeping the policy rate unchanged is appropriate for now but that the next rate change is more likely an increase. NZD also outperformed against the weaker USD on RBNZ’s core inflation data which is at its fastest pace in seven years

  4. #834
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 July 2018

    • Global equities closed marginally higher yesterday
    • Powell’s testimony supported the USD
    • Focus on UK inflation this morning and any further Brexit-related headlines

    Global equities closed marginally in the green yesterday albeit price action was relatively muted overall. Powell’s semi-annual testimony provided a positive outlook on the US economy which supported the USD, sent two-year Treasury yields to their highest level in nearly 10 years and led gold drop to a one-year low
    Fed Chair Powell suggested that the Fed will continue its gradual hiking path “for now”, broadly in line with recent FOMC communication; USDJPY reached a 6-month high overnight on back of Powell’s upbeat assessment of the US economy
    The Beige Book could gain some importance today at 19.00, as it includes feedback from business leaders on the potential impact of trade tariffs
    PM May won yesterday’s House of Commons’ vote on her post-Brexit customs plans with a marginal majority, defeating plans of rebel Conservative MPs to amend the Trade Bill. GBPUSD sold off yesterday amid ongoing Brexit concerns, breaking below 1.3100 yesterday evening
    In data, the UK May Labour report continued to show signs of a buoyant labour market with strong job creation and strong hourly wages, but lower average weekly earnings
    Today’s focus is on UK inflation data at 9.30, and any further Brexit-related headlines

  5. #835
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 July 2018

    • Global equities traded mostly higher yesterday
    • GBP underperformed on weaker than expected inflation
    • Euro area inflation and US housing starts also surprised to the downside


    US equities continued to trade higher amid strong US corporate earnings and in the absence of many trade related headlines, however their Asian counterparts closed broadly lower. The Bloomberg USD Spot index retraced initial gains, and closed the day largely unchanged
    AUDUSD rallied (+0.6%) on a strong June employment report but also reversed most gains shortly after
    GBP was the main focus for investors yesterday as it continued to sell off after domestic inflation data came in weaker than expected. From a political standpoint, Prime Minister’s Questions and Boris Johnson’s resignation speech did not lead to market-moving headlines and a leadership contest seems unlikely before Parliament recesses for summer on Thursday
    Focus today is on UK Retail sales at 9.30 which may prompt the market to reevaluate chances of a BoE rate hike at the next meeting in August
    In other data, Euro area inflation surprised to the downside, which supports Barclays Research’s view that “euro area headline inflation is close to having peaked as volatile components approach their zenith”. In the US, housing starts declined sharply in June, leading Barclays Research to revise lower its residential investment tracker, but the overall GDP tracker was left unchanged at 5.3%
    Elsewhere, CNY dropped against most Asian currencies as the USDCNY fix was set at above 6.70. Additionally, the PBoC is reportedly considering incentivizing banks to support targeted lending (Reuters)

  6. #836
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 July 2018

    • US stocks traded lower on President Trumps’ discontent about strong USD
    • CNY dropped after PBoC lowered its fixing versus the USD
    • GBP sold off on softer than expected Retail sales

    US stocks declined yesterday, led by banks stocks, and US Treasuries rallied, after President Trump expressed his discontent about the Fed’s hiking cycle and the strong USD (CNBC). The White House clarified afterwards that the president “respects the independence of the Fed,” and that these comments were merely a reiteration of long-held views, but the USD and equities remained under pressure
    Barclays Research thinks “the Fed will need to continue to hike rates given data like yesterday’s initial jobless claims, which declined to 207k, from an upwardly revised 215k”
    In Asia, equities were mixed and CNY dropped after the PBoC adjusted its fixing to 6.7671 per USD, 100 pips above market expectations. This increased demand for safe havens, and consequently JPY gained versus most peers
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index also rose initially due to safe haven demand, but reversed most gains on concerns about the Fed’s interest-rate path on the back of President Trump’s comments
    GBPUSD dipped below the key 1.3000 level yesterday, printing new 10-month lows of 1.2958 (Bloomberg), after UK Retail sales came in below market expectations. While there were no political developments of note, Brexit negotiations continue to pose headline risk. Additionally, we get UK PSNB data today at 09.30

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