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  1. #791
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 May 2018

    · Risk assets performed well yesterday, USD closed the day lower
    · GBP gained on positive Brexit headlines yesterday
    · Uncertainties in Italy put pressure on Italian assets and the EUR

    US equities performed well yesterday, despite North Korea’s threats to cancel the Kim-Trump meeting. Attention was also on US 10y Treasury yields which continued to rise up to 3.09%; this was however not enough to support the USD and the USD Bloomberg Spot Index closed lower
    GBP gained against its G10 peers on headlines (Telegraph) that the UK would be willing to stay in the customs union after Brexit. However, Reuters headlines this morning cite a Government source dismissing yesterday’s claims on the customs union; further clarity needs to be awaited
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 and resistance at 1.3570 ahead of 1.3625. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0.8715, while resistance lies at 0.8790
    Italian sovereign bonds, equities and periphery CDS fell on reports (Huffington Post) that Lega and 5SM propose a write-off of sovereign debt held by the ECB if they manage to form a government
    EURUSD came under pressure as well, falling to new YTD lows of 1.1764, but retracing some of the losses afterwards when Lega economic advisor Claudio Borghi denied such a proposal. 5SM reportedly announced that further details will be provided this weekend
    Elsewhere, Brazil’s BCB kept the policy rate unchanged in contrast to Barclays Research’s and market expectations. The surprise signals that they are relatively comfortable with inflation and activity dynamics and more concerned on the external front, given recent BRL underperformance

  2. #792
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 May 2018

    • US-China trade tensions returned as a driver for equity markets
    • GBP retraced initial gains on further Brexit headlines yesterday
    • Brent topped $80/ b, Barclays Research revised forecast higher

    Asian equities rose slightly overnight on reports that China was to offer an annual $200bn trade deficit reduction package to the US, however conflicting headlines have been released this morning (Reuters). In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index continued to rally as US 10y Treasury yields rose to 3.128%, the highest level in 7 years.
    CAD and MXN underperformed after US Trade Representative Lighthizer claimed that NAFTA negotiators are “nowhere near close to a deal”
    GBP’s initial rally on headlines (Telegraph) that the UK would be willing to stay in the customs union after Brexit was reversed yesterday when the Cabinet denied the news. While there continue to be reports around the customs union today, near-term focus is on the Irish border debate.
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 and resistance at 1.3625. EURGBP is supported in the 0.8690-0.8715 area while resistance comes in at 0.8780.
    Brent topped $80/b for the first time since November 2014 amid tensions in the Middle East and news from the International Energy Agency that global stock is decreasing.
    Given Venezuela’s production decline and Trump’s Iran sanctions, Barclays Research revised their Brent price forecast higher to $70/ b for 2018, and $65/ b for 2019.
    EURUSD traded in a relatively tight range yesterday as Italian election driven volatility tapered off. This was driven by amendments in the proposed government program of the Lega and 5SM that removed the Euro exit and the cancelation of Italy’s debt from the policy draft.

  3. #793
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 May 2018

    • Surging US 10y Treasury yields and rising oil prices fueled USD rally
    • EUR remains under pressure due to Italian political uncertainty
    • GBP vulnerable to Brexit related headlines


    US and core European equities were relatively well behaved last week despite US 10y Treasury yields rising up to 3.11% and oil prices approaching $80 per barrel. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rallied amid rising US Fed rate hike expectations bolstered by relatively resilient US data
    USD received further support from a US-China trade truce. While there has not been a formal agreement, communications have had a more cooperative tone
    Meanwhile, the EUR has suffered from ongoing political uncertainty in Italy. EURUSD ended last week 1.8% down and is pushing to new YTD lows this morning
    Lega and 5SM will likely propose a cabinet to President Mattarella as early as today, and current headlines focus on the appointment of the possible Premier. Further EUR downside may persist as we learn more
    GBPUSD also fell last week on the back of Brexit headlines concerning the Customs Union. Sterling will likely continue to be vulnerable to headline risk this week, but focus will also be on domestic data releases, including inflation (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and GDP numbers (Friday)
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3450. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0. 8720 with resistance at 0.8760-80
    EM remained under pressure last week, with EM dedicated bond and equity funds experiencing their worst week of outflows since the volatility spike in February. Notable underperformers include TRY, ZAR and BRL which all lost 3.5%

  4. #794
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 May 2018

    • US equities gain on easing tensions between the US and China
    • Focus on BoE MPC members this morning
    • Venezuela could face further sanctions


    US equities gained yesterday on the back of more conciliatory tones from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the US-China trade negotiations, while Asian stocks stalled possibly waiting for more details. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell as US yields retreated from their recent highs
    Geopolitical tensions seem to be easing as the US and China released a joint statement agreeing to “substantially reduce the US trade deficit in goods with China”
    In terms of next steps, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will visit China soon, and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit US this week
    GBP had an offered tone yesterday but traded range-bound overnight despite Boris Johnson reportedly warning that an early election would constitute a risk for the Conservatives (Bloomberg)
    Focus this morning will be on BoE MPC members Ramsden, Saunders, Vlieghe and Governor Carney testifying to the treasury select committee
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3390 and resistance at 1.3560 and 1.3625. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0.8715 while resistance lies in the 0.8780-0.8810 area
    As Italy is moving closer towards a new government, focus turned to reports that 5SM and Lega suggested Law Professor Giuseppe Conte for the role of Prime Minister (Reuters). Barclays Research expect President Mattarella to make a decision on how to move forward this week, possibly as early as today
    In Venezuela, President Maduro was unsurprisingly proclaimed winner of Sunday’s elections, but this is being contested by the international community which is expected to retaliate with new sanctions. Indeed, reports (Bloomberg) suggested that President Trump had issued an order prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt, including PDVSA

  5. #795
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 May 2018

    • Asian and US equities dropped, JPY gained on concerns of a lack of progress in US-China trade talks
    • Aggressive TRY sell-off overnight
    • Focus on UK inflation data and US FOMC meeting minutes today

    Asian and US equities dropped yesterday after US President Trump announced his discomfort about the progress in the US-China trade talks, and suggested that the planned US-North Korea Summit may not happen on 12th June
    In FX, the general risk-off sentiment prompted JPY to rise against its major peers, whilst AUD and NZD came under pressure
    In EM, TRY sold-off aggressively and USDTRY reached a new historical high of 4.8200 overnight
    Barclays Research believes that “increased macro vulnerabilities, heightened fragility of corporate balance sheets in the face of TRY weakness, and eroding household confidence in the lira will eventually force the CBT to defend the currency”
    GBP gained initially yesterday on BoE Governor Carney’s hawkish speech to the Treasury Committee suggesting that that we should expect a gentle rise in interest rates starting this year. However, the rally was short-lived and GBPUSD weakened after Carney stated that UK households are £900 worse off today compared to pre-Brexit vote
    GBPUSD has continued to fall overnight and broke below 1.3390 this morning, ahead of the release of UK inflation data at 9.30
    Italian headlines continue to drive short-term noises in EURUSD and weigh on EUR crosses. Italian President Mattarella is expected to make a decision on the role of the new Prime Minister as early as today which will be closely watched

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