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  1. #811
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 June 2018

    • Fed upgrades language and signals a steeper path of policy
    • US-China trade tariff concerns resurface; USD pares back gains
    • Focus on ECB meeting today

    The Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, as expected, and signaled two more hikes this year and three next, as the median projection for interest rates moved higher for 2018 and 2019
    Although the increase in the median went against Barclays Research expectations in this meeting, the move brings the Fed’s appropriate policy path more in line with our official baseline outlook. We expect above-trend growth, modest inflation, and a declining unemployment rate to lead to two further hikes in 2018 and four more in 2019
    The initial reaction of USD broadly higher and 10Y UST yields testing 3% once again was short-lived as concerns about US tariffs on China resurfaced (WSJ)
    China’s central bank also held off from immediately raising borrowing costs following the U.S. Federal Reserve, a decision that came just as economic data for May showed that the economy is losing steam
    The debate on the UK withdrawal bill continued yesterday, with the government defeating the modifications proposed by the Lords, albeit by making concessions
    The thorny issue of the Irish border remains, and according to the latest Barclays Research survey, investors seem skeptical that UK and EU negotiators will reach an agreement over the issue in a timely manner
    Attention now turns to the ECB meeting later today. Barclays Research do not expect policy changes, with the ECB likely only discussing policy options, and keen to see more data
    Barclays Research expect the tapering of QE to be announced in July, although an announcement today cannot be completely discarded; and expect that the staff macro projections are likely to show a slight downward revision of near-term growth and an upward revision to headline inflation
    EURUSD support 1.1715 with 1.1830/50 initial resistance to break ahead of 1.1900 and the key 1.2000 level

  2. #812
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 June 2018

    • EUR falls after the ECB convey a modestly dovish tone in their governing council meeting
    • Both US and UK May retail sales beat expectations
    • Focus today on euro area inflation, Russia central bank meeting and US Industrial production

    European stocks and bonds rallied and the euro fell after the ECB conveyed a modestly dovish tone in their governing council meeting yesterday
    The Governing Council announced that net asset purchases are expected to fall from €30bn to €15bn per month in Q4 and then end in December 2018 and that the first DFR hike would occur no earlier than September 2019
    This change in forward guidance was on the more dovish side, versus our expectations of a first hike in June 2019. Following the meeting, we have pushed out our forecasts for the monetary policy path by three months: we now expect the first DFR hike of +15bp to be delivered in September 2019, followed by a +25bp hike in the DFR and MRO in Q1 20
    GBPUSD followed EURUSD lower, then underperformed on headlines that the government faces further rebellions over the Lords’ amendments next week. GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3200 ahead of 1.3000 with resistance at 1.3450
    Both US and UK May retail sales beat expectations yesterday. US retail sales rose 0.8% m/m driven by gasoline station sales and building materials. We have revised our Q2 US GDP forecast to 3.5% q/q to take account of stronger private consumption. UK retail sales rebounded strongly in May thanks to warm weather and royal wedding celebrations. However, we still expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.4% q/q with downside risks since retail sales have been the most optimistic indicator in May
    Focus today will be on the Central Bank of Russia meeting, where we expect the CBR to make its final 25bp rate cut of this cycle as the sharp drop in the ruble has not had a significant impact on inflation which has remained at all-time lows

  3. #813
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 June 2018

    • Global trade concerns reignite on US-China dispute
    • Oil falls ahead of key OPEC meeting this week
    • Focus on upcoming central bank meetings; in G10, SNB, Norges Bank and BoE


    Asian stocks fell to begin the week amid investor concern that the exchange of threats between China and the US could lead to a full-blown trade war
    The US announced the imposition of 25% tariffs to $50bn of imports from China and published the final list of targeted goods last week. China has announced that it will retaliate in kind, imposing tariffs with equal scale and equal intensity on imports from the US
    A significant medium-term escalation in the US-China dispute could meaningfully affect East Asia and weigh on currencies such as the TWD, KRW, MYR, SGD and HKD
    Oil fell ahead of a key OPEC meeting this week, with major oil producers to meet in Vienna on June 22-23 to discuss the possibility of output increases
    The largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are pushing for an increase to offset expected production drops from Iran and Venezuela, while ensuring they preserve market share. Other producers would prefer to keep prices stable and higher for longer, which would be needed to restart the investment cycle
    In the UK, the Bank of England meets on Thursday; we expect no change in the policy rate, and for the BoE to largely repeat the message of the May inflation report. We expect the split in the MPC on rates to remain (7-2 for status quo)
    Ahead of the BoE meeting, the House of Lords takes up the Brexit withdrawal bill today after dramatic votes in the Commons, with headlines likely to drive Sterling volatility
    GBPUSD support at 1.3200 with resistance at 1.3450-75. EURGBP support at 0.8720 ahead of 0.8690 with resistance at 0.8800-50

  4. #814
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 June 2018

    • Immigration issues cause political tension in Germany
    • Trade tensions between the US and China escalate on talk of further tariffs
    • Markets look ahead to OPEC meeting on Friday

    In an otherwise relatively quiet session yesterday, immigration issues were front and centre on both sides of the pond. In the US, various members of the Trump administration defended the recently instituted policy of separating child migrants from their families at the Mexican border (Bloomberg). On the other side of the Atlantic, the DAX fell 1.4% yesterday in response to potential political instability stemming from disagreement within the country’s ruling coalition on the fate of asylum seekers
    According to several German media reports, this divergence in views has driven an increase in tensions between the CDU and CSU. For now, Chancellor Merkel has asked for the opportunity to agree a Pan-European migration solution at the EU summit on 28-29 June
    Late yesterday, trade tensions between the US and China escalated after President Trump ordered his officials to identify USD200bn worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs of 10%, with another USD200bn after that if Beijing retaliates. China vowed to retaliate “forcefully” (Bloomberg)
    With no critical data today, markets are likely looking ahead to Friday’s OPEC summit. Yesterday member states discussed a potential compromise around a more modest production increase than the estimate previously put forth by Russia. Indeed, although we expect OPEC to agree to raise output and other non-OPEC countries to follow suit, risks to prices are skewed to the upside

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