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  1. #711
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 18 January 2018

    US and European Bons Moving Modestly
    Moves on the US and European bond markets were modest today. The Bund future traded in a narrow sideways range between 160.78 and 160.97, maintaining yesterday's gain. The ECB warning on the potential impact of a strong euro on inflation and thus on ECB policy, maybe helped to protect the downside in European bonds. The German 10-yr yield is little changed at 0.55%. The very long end outperforms slightly. At the same time, US Treasuries slightly underperformed Bunds, with rates rising 1-2.5 bps across the curve. The 2-yr yield set a new cycle top at 2.04%. The moves were mostly technically inspired. Fed's Kaplan advocating a scenario of at least three rate hikes maybe helped to put a floor for US yields at the short end of the curve. Intra-EMU spread changes versus Germany were mostly limited between -1 bp (Greece) and +2 bps (Italy).
    EUR/USD spiked briefly north of 1.23 early in Asia this morning. This time the gain could not be sustained and EUR/USD soon returned back lower in the 1.22 big figure. The quick reversal had some of the characteristics of a ST exhaustion move. The dollar became better bid across the board. After ECB's Villeroy yesterday, ECB members Constancio and Nowotny also warned that a sudden rise of the euro could complicate the ECB's efforts to bring inflation back to target. December EMU inflation was confirmed at a soft 1.4% for the headline inflation and 0.9% for the core. This was no surprise, but it reinforced the case of the ECB speakers. EUR/USD tested the 1.22 mark at the start of the US trading session. The 2-yr US/German interest rate differential rose to a cycle top of over 2.60 %. The 10-yr difference was little changed around 2%. Modest losses on global equity markets after yesterday's sharp intraday decline on WS also contained the risk of further, disorderly USD losses. US December industrial production was strong, but mostly due to growth at utilities and in mining. The reaction of the dollar was limited. EUR/USD trades near 1.2225. USD/JPY is changing hands around 110.75.
    Sterling basically followed the broader trends in the euro and the dollar amid an empty UK eco calendar. EUR/GBP drifted south in line with the overall euro correction. The pair trades currently just above 0.8850. Cable is also trading of the overnight top, but levels around 1.38 can be considered as a sign of sterling resilience. BoE Saunders, from the hawkish wing of the BoE, saw chance of faster pay growth. Over time this might translate into faster BoE rate hikes.


  2. #712
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 January 2018

    • US equities and the USD came under pressure on concerns of a government shutdown
    • GBPUSD rallied above 1.3900, aided by a soft USD
    • SARB and CBT kept policy unchanged

    Market moves were muted yesterday. US equities closed lower and the USD declined on concerns of a US government shutdown. Overnight, the House passed the spending bill in a 230-197 initial vote, ahead of today’s midnight deadline where government funding is due to end without a new deal. The vote is now headed toward an additional step in the Senate, where Republicans will require at least a dozen Democratic votes to get the bill through (Reuters).
    GBP continued to trade with an underlying bid tone with GBPUSD breaking through the 1.3900 resistance level, aided by a soft USD. This is despite President Macron making a clear and firm stance at a UK-France Summit yesterday, regarding the UK’s contributions to the EU post-Brexit, granting no “special access” for Britain’s financial services industry to the EU single market after Brexit. Elsewhere in UK politics, our Brexit survey showed that investors have taken some comfort from recent advances in the UK/EU negotiations.
    Focus turns to UK retail sales today, where we expect it to contract 2% m/m in December.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3800 ahead of 1.3660 (Bloomberg 2017 highs) and resistance at 1.3940 and 1.4000.
    In emerging markets, central banks in South Africa and Turkey left policy unchanged. The SARB kept rates on hold at 6.75% and the rhetoric was neutral, lacking the dovish tilt that many expected. ZAR rallied to its strongest level since June 2015 (vs. USD), despite some selective profit taking after the SARB. Meanwhile, the CBT’s hawkish stance also saw TRY higher (vs. USD), rallying c. 1.7% yesterday.
    Looking ahead to this weekend, focus will shift to Germany on Sunday as the SPD delegates will decide on whether to enter into coalition negotiations with CDU and CSU.

  3. #713
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 January 2018

    It's Never Sunny In Washington D.C.
    Last week the US dollar was trying to perform it's best Lazarus impersonation but fell well short on all accounts not only hampered by dwindling long-term sentiment but also feeling the weight from the latest political fracas in Washington. However, the dollar has not weakened off to dramatically this morning after Shutdown headlines with USDJPY off about 20 pips to 110.60 at the Wellington Open. Sure the government shutdown remains in focus, but it's not a significant USD driver as it presents only a minuscule shock to risk appetite
    Not unexpectedly SPD agreed to start formal coalition talks with Merkel; a decision which moves Germany closer to form a new government.By accepting to pursue further discussions and thereby dramatically improving the chances for another grand coalition, a temporary calm should engulf the EU political landscape. However, German political developments were not thought to be a significant disruptor, so the market focus now pivots to this weeks ECB. A bit of everything for everyone this week with, politics, central banks earnings and Trump in Davos could be this weeks marquee event.
    The focus will be on Davos and the World Economic Forum that will take place from Tuesday to Friday with President Trump due to deliver a keynote address on the final day. Anytime Trump takes the podium, especially when he's the headline event, the chance for market turmoil elevates two-fold. This time around, there are lots of gossips that he could use this platform to up the protectionist ante, but so far other than pulling out of TPP the risk of protectionism under President Trump has mostly proved a red herring. Stay tuned! However, the big currency mover this morning was the Turkish Lira as USDTRY moved +1.5 %after Turkey launched airstrikes in Syria against US-backed Kurdish fighters.

  4. #714
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 23 January 2018

    • Global equity markets continue to rally
    • GBPUSD briefly hit 1.4000 overnight
    • The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected

    Global equity markets continued to rally yesterday led by US stocks making new record highs after the US Senate reached a temporary agreement to end the government shutdown. Funding was extended until 8 February but USD was largely unchanged.
    Asian equity markets have followed their US counterparts higher overnight with the Nikkei 225 hitting a 26-year high and the Hang Seng reaching a new all-time high.
    GBP continued to strengthen yesterday as investors digested Macron’s more accommodating stance to Brexit as expressed in an interview over the weekend. GBPUSD traded above 1.4000 for the first time since the Brexit vote and EURGBP broke below its recent support level at 0.8800.
    GBPUSD support now comes in at 1.3925 with resistance still at 1.4000 as it failed to sustain a break above that level overnight. Meanwhile, EURGBP support is found at 0.8690 with 0.8800 now acting as a resistance level
    The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged overnight as expected, but raised its assessment of current and expected inflation. JPY rallied initially on the news but has since retraced most gains.
    Barclays Research expects the BoJ to ” …retain its current easing stance through H1-18, then take its first step toward normalization with revisions to its yield curve controls in Q3”.
    The sixth round of negotiations on NAFTA resumes today in Montreal and a joint press conference has been scheduled for 29 January. The US administration is expected to shift its focus to trade now that tax cuts have been passed and a flare up of tension could have an impact on markets.
    In South Africa, the ANC appears to have agreed on Zuma’s exit as South African President. Zuma’s successor, Ramaphosa, is already beginning to deliver on his promises to tackle corruption and improve governance which has benefitted ZAR.

  5. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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