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  1. #831
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 July 2018

    • Stocks rebound as trade tensions appear to ease
    • GBP under pressure on Trump Brexit comments
    • Barclays Research revise BoE call for August and now expect a hike


    Stocks in the US rebounded yesterday and Asian stocks look set to follow suit as trade tensions appeared to ease with China refraining from detailing retaliation plans against threatened US tariff increases (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research think “the Chinese government is likely reevaluating its strategy, and moving from the current tit-for-tat approach towards more controlled and selective retaliation, while accelerating China’s opening up and domestic reforms”
    In the UK, market reaction to the release of the White Paper was muted, however overnight GBP came under pressure as US President Donald Trump warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May that her Brexit proposal could “kill” any future US trade deal
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3095 ahead of 1.3000, with resistance at 1.3365. They expect EURGBP will trade within a 40 pip range for now, with 0.8800-0.8900 wider range
    Barclays Research have revised their BoE call for August and now expect a hike
    The MPC will likely be satisfied with the latest data supporting Q2 GDP at 0.4% q/q and deliver a rate hike in August; three members voted previously for such a decision. This view is not supported by our macroeconomic forecasts, but based on recent policy statements, resilient data and more constructive Brexit negotiations
    Elsewhere, the ECB released the minutes of the June meeting. It did not deviate from the script in the earlier press conference, emphasizing the importance of forward guidance as a policy tool

  2. #832
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 July 2018

    • Global equities gained last week despite escalating geopolitical tensions
    • Domestic UK data unlikely to materially alter BoE rate hike expectations
    • Oil prices dropped on potential supply increases


    US and Asian equity markets mostly gained last week despite an abundance of trade-protectionism headlines, political turmoil in the UK, and geopolitical tension during President Trump’s European visit and NATO meetings. To start the week, Asian shares fell however on soft Chinese activity data
    USD rose against most currencies last week on concerns about the escalating trade conflict, even gaining against traditional safe havens such as JPY and CHF
    Last week saw geopolitical tensions escalating as the US Administration announced more tariffs on China and reiterated potential tariffs on cars from the EU. A so-far restrained response from China helped to stabilize sentiment towards the end of last week
    However, Barclays Research remains cautious on local market assets of countries that are exposed to escalating trade tensions
    This week's EU-China and EU-Japan summits could provide more signals on trade negotiations and could pose further headline risks
    GBPUSD was mainly driven by domestic UK political developments, which overshadowed the slightly more constructive rhetoric from the EU on Brexit progress. Barclays Research believes that “this week’s labour market, inflation and retail sales (…) are unlikely to materially alter market expectations of an August rate hike (c.20bp priced in) given the recent hawkish MPC rhetoric”
    Oil prices fell overnight on the back of reports that the US Administration is considering tapping into the emergency stockpiles to ease pricing tensions ahead of the November mid-term elections (Bloomberg)

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