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  1. #771
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 April 2018

    • Global equities rallied amid strong corporate earnings in the US
    • PBoC unexpectedly cut its reserve requirement ratio for banks to release liquidity
    • Today’s focus is on UK and EU inflation as well as the Bank of Canada meeting


    Global equities rallied across the board amid strong corporate earnings in the US. In FX, the Bloomberg USD index gained after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that Trump’s tweet on currency manipulation was a “warning shot” rather than a call for a weaker USD
    USDJPY has been rising during Asia’s trading session ahead of the press conference of US President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe this afternoon. GBP weakened slightly yesterday, but continues to trade around 1.4300, the strongest levels since the 2016 Brexit vote. Today’s focus is on UK inflation data at 9.30
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support towards the 1.4275/70 area ahead of 1.4145. Resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.4377 ahead of 1.4500. In EURGBP, support lies at 0.8620 and 0.8595 while short-term resistance is at 0.8670 ahead of 0.8700 and 0.8810
    The UK’s employment report was broadly in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% (versus 4.3% expected). Average Weekly Earnings printed 2.8% 3m/y, unchanged from the prior month, while core weekly earnings accelerated, supporting the case for a rate hike in May. The PBoC unexpectedly announced a 100bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks, effective 25th April. It will allow some banks to repay MLF lending and release additional liquidity of about CNY1300bn (PBoC)
    The Bank of Canada holds its meeting today and the market expects it to stay on hold. Barclays Research believes that “the bank remains data dependent but extremely cautious, as downside risks to the outlook remain: trade protectionism, slowing of the housing market, and the effect of previous interest rate hikes”

  2. #772
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 April 2018

    • Global equities continued to rally amid surging oil prices
    • UK and Euro zone inflation data was lower than expected in March
    • The Bank of Canada remains “cautious” on future rate hikes


    Global equities continued their rally throughout yesterday’s session, led by resource stocks which gained on rising oil prices. Crude oil jumped to new 3-year highs on reports that Saudi Arabia would be willing to let crude rise to $80 or $100 a barrel (Reuters). USDJPY continued its recent rally yesterday after US President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe agreed on starting talks on free trade relationships
    GBPUSD dropped by c.1% yesterday morning after UK March inflation data came in lower than expected at 2.5%, though sterling retraced some of its losses during the afternoon. The fall in inflation reflects a mixture of timing and weather effects, as well as the recent weakness in activity data. Nevertheless, Barclays Research does “not expect this to deter the BoE from hiking in May”
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.4145/ 1.3980 and resistance around 1.4350/75 ahead of 1.4377. In EURGBP, support lies in the 0.8690/ 0.8620 area while resistance comes in at 0.8735/40 ahead of 0.8810
    In the euro zone, inflation was also weaker than forecasted, which is mostly attributable to volatile components and Barclays Research leaves its outlook unchanged. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged as expected. BoC Governor Poloz stroke an upbeat tone but reiterated the need for caution on future rate adjustments. USDCAD traded c.0.8% higher after the announcement
    Turkey’s President Erdogan has called for early elections on 24th June. Barclays Research believes that this is “likely to increase the desire among politicians for a stable TRY, thus strengthening the case for a more decisive rate hike at the 25 April MPC meeting”

  3. #773
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 April 2018

    • GBP dropped sharply overnight on dovish comments by BoE’s Carney
    • UK retail sales came in weaker than expected
    • US and Asian equities fell yesterday amid surging UST yields


    GBP dropped sharply overnight after BoE’s Carney struck a dovish tone in an interview with the BBC, dampening expectations for a May rate hike. The governor’s comments followed weaker-than-forecast inflation data, a drop in retail sales and mixed labour-market figures this week. Carney commented that he didn’t want to be “too focused on the precise timing” of when rates might next rise and that it was a decision they “will take in early May, conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year." Ahead of the May MPC meeting, investors will be closely watching the remaining data (PMI, GDP and IP)
    Further downside pressure came from Brexit headlines suggesting that negotiations are currently far from a solution on the Irish border (Telegraph). Our traders look to 1.3970 and 1.3890 as the next support levels, while rallies towards 1.4100, 1.4145 and 1.4250 are likely to meet good resistance. In EURGBP, the next resistance comes in 0.8810 which had been a popular level to fade against before the previous move lower
    UK retail sales fell in March following unseasonably low temperatures. Barclays Research expects “this to lead to downside risks to the Q1 GDP advance release next week with data currently signalling 0.2% q/q”. US and Asian equities fell from Wednesday’s highs amid surging US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching the psychological 3% level. In FX, the rise in US yields prompted further USD buying leading the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to rise for a fourth day this week
    JPY continued to fall amid softening Japanese inflation which may support a continuation of BoJ stimulus for some time. Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate on hold at its April meeting as expected and Barclays Research sees “no room for further cuts in 2018”

  4. #774
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 April 2018

    • Last week brought more evidence that global activity and trade volumes have slowed
    • Sterling remains under pressure at the start of the week
    • This week focus will be on Euro area composite PMI (today), German IFO (Tues), ECB meeting (Thu) and US Q1 GDP (Fri)


    Developed stock markets ended the second half of the week with negative momentum, but given gains earlier in the week still finished 0.5-1% higher for the week. Flows into emerging markets continued to hold up.
    Last week brought more evidence that global activity and trade volumes have slowed, but markets were resilient. The key moves were in the bond market, where 10y bunds rose by 8bp and where the front of the US Treasury curve backed up by almost 10bp on declining risk aversion and higher inflation expectations, partly driven by higher oil prices
    The slowdown reflected in global activity indicators is most clear in Europe, where recent weaker readings on European industrial production and soft manufacturing and services PMIs led us to lower our forecast for euro area growth in Q1 18 to 1.6% q/q saar (from 2.1% previously)
    Focus today on Euro zone PMIs, which will be watched closely following the slowing in growth momentum over recent releases
    EURUSD came under pressure into the end of last week in line with the broader bid tone for USD as we broke through support 1.2300 down to 1.2250. The ECB meeting on Thursday is likely to be a non event, with no material changes in forward guidance expected. The market will be watching for any commentary regarding the recent slowing in data
    Sterling remains under pressure at the start of this week, following a volatile week last week on the back of Carney’s dovish comments. Reports on Friday that European Union officials are set to reject a potential UK solution to the crucial issue of what happens to the Irish border after Brexit (Bloomberg) is further weighing on the currency

  5. #775
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 April 2018

    • US equities closed slightly lower yesterday amid firmer US 10y Treasury yields
    • The greenback rallied to nearly 3-month highs supported by higher rates
    • GBP remains under pressure ahead of the House of Common’s vote on the Custom’s union


    US equities closed slightly lower yesterday on firmer US yields, while Asian stocks retraced from near two-week lows overnight. The main focus was on the surging US 10-year Treasury yields which were driven higher by a rally in oil prices and the subsequent increase in inflation expectations, now approaching the psychologically level of 3% again
    The spike in oil prices towards $69/ barrel continues to be driven by tensions in the Middle East and falling US crude stockpiles
    In FX, the USD continued to strengthen throughout yesterday’s session supported by higher rates, with the USD Bloomberg Spot Index reaching a near 3-month high. At the same time, the 60-day correlation between the USD index and benchmark Treasury 10-year yields has now turned positive again, after dipping into negative territory during the past few months
    EM high-yielders, JPY and AUD came most under pressure versus the USD as a result of the greenback’s rally
    GBPUSD continued to sell off yesterday, mainly due to broad-based USD strength, but also due to caution relating to Thursday’s House of Commons’ vote on whether the UK should be in a Customs union following the Government’s defeat last week in the House of Lords. While only a symbolic motion and non-binding, the vote could put increased pressure on the Government and stoke internal conflicts in the Conservative Party
    Euro area April “flash” PMIs printed broadly in line with our above consensus forecast at 55.2, unchanged from the March reading. Current euro area PMI levels are high, and if they remain stable for the rest of Q2, would be consistent with Barclays Research’s 0.6% q/q GDP growth forecast

  6. #776
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 April 2018

    • Global equities sell off after US 10-year Treasury yields rise above 3%
    • GBP remains under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s vote in the House of Commons on the Customs Union
    • Today’s focus is on Turkey’s CBT meeting


    Global equities sold off yesterday after US 10-year Treasury yields rose, trading above 3% this morning, the highest level since 2014. US stocks closed sharply lower amid the concerns over US yields. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded higher overnight approaching the 3-month high set on Tuesday
    AUD and NZD were the notable underperformers yesterday, mainly driven by broad-based USD strength and thin trading as local markets were closed for a public holiday
    Crude oil prices dropped yesterday after US President Trump said that the US and France could soon reach an agreement to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal
    GBP retraced some of Monday’s losses yesterday, with GBPUSD getting close to 1.40 overnight. However, GBPUSD has dropped back below 1.3940 this morning on no apparent headlines. In a quiet day of data today, the pair will likely be driven by USD momentum ahead of tomorrow’s symbolic vote in the House of Commons on the Customs union
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3920 ahead of 1.3890 and 1.3700, while resistance comes in at 1.4000 ahead of the 1.4145-75 area. EURGBP finds support at 0.8735 ahead of 0.8690 and 0.8625, while resistance lies at 0.8800
    In data, UK March Public Finances showed that the budget execution is ahead of its targets at the end of FY-17, partly driven by the strong surplus seen in January on healthy self-assessment revenues. Further improvement is likely to be limited, and Barclays Research “expects the undershoot to be spent in the next fiscal year”
    In Turkey, the CBT’s meeting is in focus today where Barclays Research expects the MPC to hike the LLW O/N lending rate by 100bp. This could potentially be accompanied by hikes in other policy rates if the bank chooses to deliver a more decisively hawkish message to the market. That said, Barclays Research would expect the magnitude of any hikes to be highly dependent on the level of TRY going into the MPC meeting. Hence, USDTRY falling below 4.00 would constitute a downside risk to our call

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