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  1. #601
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 July 2017

    • Yellen’s testimony signals no rush to tighten monetary policy
    • Bank of Canada hikes rates for the first time since 2010
    • UK labour market continues to show resilience but inflationary pressure persists


    Chair Yellen's testimony yesterday was decidedly non committal, as she the reiterated the Fed’s view that the neutral rate of interest had fallen and hence policy rates are unlikely to rise “much further” in the US. With this rhetoric sharply contrasting with market expectations for increasing hawkishness from central banks, the USD initially eased across the board. EURUSD rallied above 1.1480 but shortly reversed after the unwinding of long EUR positions.
    Yellen will testify again today, this time before the Senate Banking Panel. We expect her to reiterate her views as expressed yesterday.
    In contrast, CAD was the biggest winner yesterday after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25bp to 0.75%, attributing the recent softness in inflation to temporary factors. The pace of further policy normalization is likely to be data dependent, and wage and price inflation in particular will be closely monitored.
    The UK employment report continued to show resilience in May 2017 as the unemployment rate dipped further, by 0.1pp to 4.5%, its lowest level since June 1975 and in line with the Bank of England’s estimate for the medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate.
    Following May’s headline CPI print, real core wage growth printed unchanged at -0.6% 3m/y, a third consecutive month of negative real wage growth. Attention turns to UK inflation data next week.

  2. #602
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 17 July 2017

    • Markets consolidate and equities make new highs
    • Weak US CPI print lifts GBPUSD to year-to-date highs
    • ECB meeting on Thursday in focus this week


    Markets consolidated last week, particularly rates which had sold-off sharply in the week before. US June CPI came in slightly below consensus at 1.6% y/y (vs. 1.7%) on Friday and US equities traded stronger to reach a new record high.
    Chinese GDP data for Q2 came in marginally higher than expected this morning (6.9% y/y vs. 6.8% y/y) and Japan is closed today for holiday.
    GBP had a strong week last week, especially on Friday when GBPUSD made new highs for the year as a result of the weaker than expected US CPI print.
    UK CPI tomorrow morning is the next key data point to watch and Barclays Research expects inflation to have moderated in June as “…the impact of the GBP depreciation following the Brexit vote has now fully passed through to prices…”.
    The dollar index sank to a 10-month low on Friday, as weaker-than-forecast economic data raised doubts about the prospect of additional Federal Reserve tightening this year.
    In the absence of major US data releases this week, the focus for the USD will be on the vote for the revised healthcare bill and corporate earnings reports.
    The ECB meeting on Thursday will be in focus this week and monetary policy is widely expected to remain unchanged. However, the rhetoric will be closely scrutinized and it is possible that the forward guidance easing bias is removed which is the next natural step toward normalization.

  3. #603
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 July 2017

    • UK inflation data surprised to the downside
    • Republicans failed in their latest attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act
    • The ECB meeting tomorrow will be in focus


    UK inflation data dominated headlines yesterday, as core CPI surprised to the downside (Actual: 2.6% y/y versus Consensus: 2.9%) driven by a broad range of components. Sterling generally underperformed against other major currencies as the likelihood of a near-term BoE hike appeared reduced.
    The weakness in prices was broad-based and Barclays Research believe that “…most of the recent recovery in services inflation appears to be behind, while past currency depreciation has actually been mostly already passed through to core goods prices. Downside inflation surprises, coupled with slowing activity data, are likely to keep the BoE hawks at bay…”.
    In FX, GBPUSD sold off more than 1 big figure on the release from 1.3125 to 1.3017 with our traders seeing resistance at 1.3060/65 and supports at 1.2995 before 1.2960.
    In the US, Republican Senators could not come to an agreement on healthcare reform, highlighting significant divisions among different factions in the majority party.
    The political uncertainty saw the dollar index weaken to its lowest level since September and pushed 10-year treasury notes 2.27% lower yesterday, before some pullback overnight
    The ECB meeting tomorrow will be the key focus for the remainder of the week with their monetary policy widely expected to remain unchanged. However, the rhetoric will be closely scrutinized and it is possible that the forward guidance easing bias is removed which is the next natural step towards normalization.

  4. #604
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 20 July 2017

    • Equity markets continue to rally
    • ECB meeting in focus with Draghi’s Sintra speech to be scrutinized
    • UK Retail Sales data announced today


    Equity markets continued to rally yesterday spurred by all-time highs for US equities. Meanwhile, the JPY eased after the Bank of Japan reinforced expectations that they plan to leave monetary stimulus in place for longer than other major central banks, as expected.
    In focus today we have the ECB’s Governing Council meeting, where we expect the ECB to stay on hold. In line with the broader theme of central bank tightening, there will be some expectation that President Draghi either drops the Quantitative Easing bias in the statement or infers some changes to monetary policy in the near future. In our view, Draghi is also likely to be questioned in the press conference regarding his statement in Sintra.
    According to the minutes of the June ECB meeting, the Governing Council discussed removing the APP easing bias, and we believe that removing this from the opening statement will be the next step toward policy normalization.
    On the data front, we expect some positivity in UK June retail sales today. We forecast 0.5% m/m growth in total retailing, implying growth of 1.4% q/q.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 ahead of 1.2900, and resistance at 1.3062 (Bloomberg high after Carney comments Tuesday night) ahead of 1.3126 (Bloomberg YTD highs). EURGBP price action will likely be driven by the ECB today. We see short term support at 0.8825 and 0.8780 ahead of 0.8715-40, with resistance at 0.8900 and 0.8950.

  5. #605
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 24 July 2017

    • EUR rallied at the end of last week following Thursday’s ECB meeting
    • Continuation of mixed reports on Brexit last week
    • Focus this week on the FOMC and UK and US GDP


    After the ECB indicated, at last Thursday’s meeting, that policy will be reviewed in the autumn and broadly maintained its view around inflation and growth, EURUSD reached the highest point in nearly two years. There was a continuation of the EURUSD rally on Friday but we may see some profit taking on long EURUSD positions ahead of the US FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
    Draghi’s next important speech could be at Jackson Hole, which will take place on 24-26 August, though his participation is not yet confirmed.
    After a continuation of mixed reports on Brexit, last week ended with a more positive tone on a softer Brexit with focus on the transition deal/period.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support around the 1.2930-50 area, ahead of 1.2800 and 1.2585; with resistance at 1.3030 ahead of 1.3100. EURGBP short term support is at 0.8900 and 0.8815 with 0.9000 acting as clear resistance.
    Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC July meeting, markets remain reluctant to price additional Fed tightening, inducing risks of a USD rebound should the Fed reiterate its commitment to policy normalization. Given that the FOMC has communicated every part of its plans for balance sheet normalization, it may take advantage of financial market conditions to announce the start of the run-off at the July meeting, ahead of our forecast for a September start.

  6. #606
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 25 July 2017

    • Quiet session yesterday across equities, rates and FX
    • GBP continued to grind higher vs. USD and EUR yesterday, ahead of the UK GDP print tomorrow
    • Senate Republicans to vote on healthcare reform this week


    Summer trading was the theme in a quiet session yesterday across equities, rates and FX. Even central banks appear to have stepped back slightly, with ECB asset purchases falling off last week after previous front loading
    President Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, confirmed that he had contact with Russians on 4 occasions during the presidential campaign but stated that he did not collude with Russia and that the contact “occurred in the normal course of events”.
    Euro area PMIs pulled back from the highs in the flash reading yesterday, printing at 55.8 versus an expected 56.2. This is consistent with our view that euro area growth will slow to 0.4% q/q after 0.5% q/q in Q2. Despite this, EUR remained firm versus its peers with EURUSD remaining above 1.1600.
    GBP continued to grind higher yesterday against both USD and EUR. Data releases are limited until tomorrow’s UK GDP print so GBP fluctuations are likely to be flow driven until then.
    Meanwhile, speculation continues around an extended Brexit transition period and future trade deals with the US, New Zealand, Australia and India.
    In the US, Senate Republicans will vote on healthcare reform this week; we remain skeptical on the chances of success, but this need not endanger tax cuts.
    Senate GOP leadership does not have the votes to pass comprehensive health reform legislation in the short term. We expect Congressional Republicans to shift the focus to tax cuts and encouraging companies to repatriate their foreign earnings.

  7. #607
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 26 July 2017

    • Crude's Saudi-Inspired Rally Continues
    • Does the OPEC Meeting Actually Mean Anything?
    • ·CAC Shows Strong Gains As Bank Shares Jum
    • ·USD/JPY: US Manufacturing PMI


    Following last week's relatively heavy losses, crude prices rallied yesterday and both oil contracts were sharply higher again today with Brent trading around $49.50 and WTI almost at $48.20 at the time of this writing. Sentiment on the oil market turned positive when Saudi Arabia's energy minister announced yesterday that his country's oil exports will be reduced by a good 600 thousand barrels per day in August to 6.6 million bpd. This was not only in response to some OPEC nations producing more oil than agreed, but also an attempt to help reduce inventories in the US. According to the EIA, deliveries of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since the start of June has fallen by around 450,000 barrels a day. If the upcoming US oil inventories reports from the US show stockpiles had fallen further last week, then oil prices could rise further.
    While the Oil markets are attempting to maintain gains following the latest OPEC meeting, I remain unconvinced whether the outcome to the gathering actually means anything for the price of Oil in the long run. If anything, the tone coming from St. Petersburg was more of a sign of unity and confidence that the current production deal, and path that is being followed, will eventually rebalance the markets.
    The CAC index has posted strong gains in the Tuesday session. Currently, the index is trading at 5183.50, up 1.07% on the day. It’s a quiet day on the release front, with no events out of France or the eurozone. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish its rate statement.
    Monday's Markit survey showed that the preliminary PMIs for the US manufacturing and services sectors almost matched analysts' forecasts and had little initial impact on the USD/JPY currency pair. Just after the data were released, the US Dollar edged slightly higher against the Yen to 110.954. Markit revealed that the index for services activity in the United States came in at 54.2 in July, unchanged from the previous month, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2, above forecasts for a 52.3 reading. Sufficiently strong figures suggested that the country's pace of economic growth gained momentum, pointing to some signs for further expansion.
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 07-26-2017 at 06:47 AM.

  8. #608
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 27 July 2017

    • USD and US Treasury yields fall following last night’s FOMC meeting
    • EURUSD breaks the 2015 highs of 1.1715
    • UK preliminary Q2 GDP printed in line with expectations at 0.3% q/q

    Overnight, the USD came under pressure and 10y US Treasury yields fell below 2.30% after the Fed left interest rates unchanged but made some tweaks to the wording on balance sheet normalization and inflation which the market took as a dovish adjustment.
    The Fed meeting provided support for risk assets and Asian equities reached 10 year highs this morning after a positive earnings season and an improving outlook for China.
    The Fed signaled that it will announce the start of balance sheet normalization “relatively soon” and it softened its description of the incoming data by more firmly stating that headline and core inflation is currently running below its 2% target.
    The changes in rhetoric were enough for the USD to continue its downtrend and for EURUSD to break the 2015 highs of 1.1715. The ECB’s Nowotny's hawkish comments “seeing risk of distortion with negative rates” made before the meeting added to positive EUR momentum.
    In the UK, preliminary Q2 GDP printed in line with expectations at 0.3% q/q which was up from 0.2% q/q in Q1 thanks to a pick-up in the services sector but the market reaction was muted.
    Barclays Research maintains the view that “…with negative real wage growth throughout 2017, household consumption growth will remain subdued and drive growth lower…”.

  9. #609
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 28 July 2017

    • Markets subdued and USD bounces back from the post-FOMC slump
    • US Administration and Congressional leadership release joint statement on tax reform
    • US preliminary Q2 GDP in focus today

    Markets were relatively subdued yesterday despite some strong US data and US equities finished the day lower after a sudden drop in technology and transportation stocks with weak Amazon earnings being partially blamed for the downside move.
    The dollar recovered somewhat from of its post-FOMC weakness due to profit taking on USD shorts and after relatively strong US data, including durable goods orders, helped lift USD higher.
    GBPUSD came off from its year-to-date highs yesterday. Price action was primarily driven by the USD side, whilst there was little out of the UK.
    Members of the US Administration and Congressional leadership released a joint statement yesterday, affirming tax reform as a major priority for the Administration.
    The statement did little to change market expectations and Barclays Research believes that “…tax cuts will happen before the first quarter of 2018 but will be modest in size…”.
    Focus today is expected to fall on US Q2 preliminary GDP which should confirm that existing capacity pressures justify further policy normalization amid positive labour market conditions.
    Barclays Research expects the number to print at 2.5% y/y though there is some upside risk to this number given the strength of yesterday’s US data releases.

 

 
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