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  1. #131
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 17, 2014

    This week’s Chinese and U.S. data releases were driving the Asian stocks in a constant up and down rally, which lead to an increasing demand of the Australian bonds and a steadily gaining USD. The U.S. currency is currently targeting towards its best weekly level within two months against most of its major traded counterparts. Recently, the signs for a cooling down of the expansion of the Chinese business have been stacking up and also estimates are predicting that next week’s factory output and investment growth might shrink compared to the previous months.
    The nation’s industrial production retracted to 9.8 percent, the lowest in five months, and the gross domestic product grew 7.6 percent in the last quarter of 2013. As a result, the South Pacific currencies were suffering against its U.S. peer and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index continued its streak of consequtive advances in the last five days. It has climbed 0.6 percent for the week and appreciated 0.1 percent to 1,030.12 yesterday. In addition, the bets are rising that in New Zealand and Australia interest rate cuts might be done in the middle of this year, referring to a survey among leading market analysts. As a result the AUD slid close to a 36-month low and also the NZD showed the biggest intraday drop among all major currencies. The AUD/USD has traded at 0.8807 but briefly touched 0.8770, the worst since August 2010, and with a weekly loss of 2.1 percent. A strengthening JPY means that the AUD now buys 91.88 JPY, down from 92.05, heading towards a 1.9 percent appreciation in the period of the last five days. Similar to the AUD, the NZD has dropped 0.7 percent to 0.8296 USD and 0.8 percent to 86.51 JPY.

    In contrast to China, this week’s figures of the U.S. economy are heating up the speculations that the Federal Reserve will reduce their monthly easing purchases further in their next meeting. In particular, new applications for jobless benefits decreased to the weakest level within three months and retail sales were above the espectations of the Bloomberg median economists. The next summit is scheduled for the 28 th and 29 th of January. Accordingly, the EUR/USD tumbled to 1.3617 rom 1.3620 the day before and could finish the week with a loss of 0.4 percent today. Meanwhile, the JPY held around yesterday’s close and was at 104.30 aganst the USD following a rise of 0.2 percent yesterday.



  2. #132
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 20, 2014

    On Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index declined 0.4 percent. Last week data showed that inflation in the Euro zone slowed in the past month. Consumer prices in the 17 countries sharing the euro increased 0.3 percent, putting the annual inflation rate at 0.8 percent, down from 0.9 percent in November. The ECB wants to keep the inflation close to 2 percent over the medium term and expects a long period of low inflation but sees no immediate risk of deflation. Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Thursday that the current low level is not a major threat to the economic recovery. The president of Germany’s Bundesbank also said on Thursday there was no reason for irrational inflationary fears and dismissed danger of deflation too. He urged France to show its peers how to restore economic competitiveness as it is decisive for the recovery of the whole eurozone. The USD traded close to its highest level since November versus the EUR amid speculation the Federal Reserve will continue reducing stimulus as the U.S. economy is gaining momentum. The EUR dropped more than 0.1 percent against the USD to 1.3520. The USD/JPY traded at 104.10 and the EUR/JPY was at 140.65. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will start a two-day policy meeting.

    China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner and the world’s second-largest economy, today released gross domestic product and showed that the economy grew slightly more than
    economists had expected. They forecasted a drop to 7.6 percent in the last quarter in 2013 from a year earlier, coming from 7.8 percent. But the economy in China expanded by 7.7 percent and industrial production declined to a five-month low to 9.7 percent from a year earlier. The AUD strengthened verus the USD to 0.8787 and the AUD/JPY traded at 91.35.

    On Friday a government report in the U.K. showed that retail sales advanced at a record pace in December, adding to optimism the recovery is gaining momentum. The GBP/USD traded at
    1.6398 after it had touched 1.6456 on Friday.


    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 01-20-2014 at 11:22 AM.

  3. #133
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 21, 2014

    Yesterday the US stock market was closed for Martin Luther King day. While data yesterday showed that China’s 2013 economic growth dodged a 14-year low, some economists say a cooldown will be inevitable this year as officials and investors hunker down for difficult reforms.
    China’s 2013 economic growth was at 7.7 percent, just slightly above market expectations and the slowest advance since 1999. As a result, the AUD got some relief after China’s data were released and gained 0.4 percent to 0.8812 against the USD. Data showed that inflation in New Zealand accelerated more than investors had expected which lead to a 0.9 percent rise in the NZD/USD to 0.8334.
    Yesterday the EUR recovered slightly from a two-month low versus the USD, helped by higher short-term market interest rates, although speculation the ECB may step in capped gains. According to economists the key driver of the euro underperformance is growing market expectations of ECB action to address the tightening money market conditions. This month ECB President Mario Draghi said that an unwarranted increase in interbank lending rates that underpin euro zone borrowing costs would be one of two possible triggers for another rate cut or other easing measures. Today the market has forecasted that data will show the outlook for business confidence in Germany, which is Europe’s biggest economy, climbed to the highest level in almost eight years. Nevertheless the USD strengthened versus most of its major peers on signs the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, supporting the case for Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus.The Federal Open Market Committee is going to meet on January 28-29. The USD/JPY advanced 0.3 percent to 104.44 and the EUR/USD traded at 1.3544. The EUR appreciated 0.2 percent against the JPY to 141.42.



  4. #134
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 22 , 2014

    On Tuesday the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index advanced 0.3 percent. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund forecasted that the world economy will grow by more than previously expected this year. In its update to its “World Economic Outlook”, the IMF estimated a global economic growth of 3.7 percent this year, its last forecast from October 2013 was around 3.6 percent. They said that financial conditions in advanced economies have eased but they also warned that some advanced economies in the euro zone were at risk from very low inflation. IMF chief Economist Oliver Blanchard pointed out that deflation is a risk for the euro zone. He said that there is a 10 to 20 percent probability that prices could start to fall in the euro zone and therefore called on the European Central Bank to do everything it can to anchor price expectations and boost demand.

    Today the Bank of Japan will begin its policy meeting amid speculation they will delay expanding stimulus depending on the economic outlook and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s statement. The JPY traded close to its highest level in six weeks versus the EUR and held its best start to a year versus the USD since 2010. The EUR/JPY trade at 141.34 and the USD/JPY was at 104.17. The EUR bought 1.3564 USD.

    Economists estimated that data today will show U.K. unemployment dropped to the lowest level in 4 ½ years. As a result the EUR nearly touched a one year low versus the GBP around 0.8228. Today the Bank of Canada will release its rate decision and the market expects that the bank may signal in a policy statement it will favor lower interest rates but leave the rate unchanged at 1 percent. The USD/CAD traded at 1.0964.



  5. #135
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 24 , 2014

    Global equity markets sold off yesterday on disappointing Chinese manufacturing data and weak corporate earnings. Factory activity in China contracted in January for the first time in six months. The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index in China dropped below the level of 50 to 49.6 and reinforced concerns about global growth, especially in commodity-sensitive emerging markets. As a result the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 1.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.9 percent yesterday.

    On Thursday data showed that manufacturing in the euro area increased to the highest in more than 2 ½ years, and therefore boosting optimism that growth in Europe is gathering momentum. Manufacturing output in Europe climbed to 53.9 in January, in Germany it even climbed to 56.3. Market services rose to 51.9 from 51 in the previous month, economists had predicted an increase of 51.4. In addition Spain sold a record 10 billion euros of bonds via banks on Wednesday amid a surge in demand for the securities of Europe’s peripheral countries.

    Furthermore a survey published this week showed that 57 percent of investors, analysts and traders judged the worst of Europe’s debt crisis to be over. Beyond that reports yesterday showed only a small rise in weekly jobless claims, which rose by 1,000 to 326,000 in the period ended January 18. U.S. existing home sales appreciated 1 percent in the past month after three months of declines. The EUR strengthened the most in almost four weeks versus the USD to 1.3690. The EUR/JPY traded at 141.48 and the USD/JPY declined 1.2 percent to 103.30.

    The market estimates that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than they have predicted because the economy shows signs of gaining momentum. The GBP/USD appreciated to the higest level since May 2011 to 1.6630. The EUR/GBP rose to 0.8230




  6. #136
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 27 , 2014

    The JPY touched a seven week high against the USD. Traders around the world reduced their bets that the JPY will weaken versus the USD. The USD dropped 0.2 percent to 102.15 after touching 101.77, the lowest since the beginning of December 2013. Last week, the JPY rallied over 2 percent against the USD. EUR slid 0.2 percent too and traded around 139.80. The JPY is the best performer among its major peers this year. It could increase 3.1 percent versus the USD.
    In 2013, it lost 18 percent which is the most among the 10 biggest currencies. The Topix index of Japanese shares tumbled 2.8 percent today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.9 percent. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was little changed at 2.72 percent, after reaching 2.70 percetn at the end of last week which is the lowest since Novmeber 2013. Emerging market currencies around the world dropped. The Argentine peso weakened 15 percent last week as the country`s central bank scaled back its intervention to preserve international reserves. In Turkey, the central bank`s first unscheduled intervention in more than two years failed to stem the lira`s decline. It dropped 5 percent last week.
    Britain`s economy probably capped its best year of growth since 2007 during the last quarter, bringing Mark Carney closer to completing what he calls the “first phase” of his low interest-rate policy. Gross domestic rose 0.7 percent. Carney, the Bank of England governor, repeated at the weekend that he wants exceptionally loose monetary policy for some time to give an extra fillip to growth that remains uneven. The Monetary Commiteeis waiting for business investments to join a revival in consumer spending, something is forecasts may start later this year. On Friday the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 2 percent and the Dow Jones Index fell even 2.1 percent.



  7. #137
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 28 , 2014

    The USD extended its gains versus the JPY as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting. Economists around the world expect that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the U.S. central bank`s monthly asset purchases, at the moment at 75 billion USD, by 10 billion USD at each of its meetings to end the stimulus program this year. The JPY dropped versus its most traded counterparts as Asian increased. Beyond that the market speculated that Turkey`s central bank will raise interest rates on a meeting today. In addition China`s largest lender said investors in a troubled high-yield trust can recop funds. The AUD could rise against the JPY and the USD as global stocks stabilized. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of region stocks was little changed after dropping 3.7 percent over the previous three days.
    The GBP was near its strongest level since May 2011 against the USD before data today forecast to show economic growth accelerated. Furthermore GBP gained versus 12 of its 16 major peers. The market expects an 2.8 percent rate for the nation`s gross domestic product in the last quarter.
    The USD rose 0.2 percent to 102.71 against the JPY. Yesterday it touched 101.77, the weakest level since the beginning of December 2013. The EUR traded unchanged against the USD around 1.3675. JPY lost 0.2 percent versus the EUR and reached 140.45 after touching 139.20 yesterday, the lowest for the EUR since 2 months. The AUD rose 0.6 percent to 0.9019 versus the JPY. Yesterday, it already increased 0.9 percent, the biggest in more than a month. USD dropped 0.5 percent to 0.8783 against the AUD. This year, the USD has climbed 0.7 percent. The JPY is the best performer in 2014 at the moment, it could rise 3.5 percent. The EUR gained 0.2 percent.

  8. #138
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 29 , 2014

    Yesterday, orders for long-lasting equipment unexpectedly slumped in December by the most in five months. This indicates U.S. companies are less sure than households that the economy is strengthening. EUR could climb against the USD and traded around 1.3670.Japanese and U.S. stock index futures increased while crude oil retreated. The lira jumped the most since 2008 while the JPY and gold extended declines after Turkey ́s central bank more than doubled interest rates to arrest a currency slide that roiled global markets. The central bank raised Turkey`s benchmark rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent. The lira surged 3 percent versus the USD. The currency pair rose to 2.1845. Gold slipped 0.4 percent. It is the third day in a row. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures could gain 1.3 percent in the Osaka pre-market and Australian stocks snapped a four day slide. Standard and Poor`s 500 Index futures climbed 0.5 percent after the gauge rose 0.6 percent. Oil in New York dropped from a four week high and natural gas fell. The NZD could continue its bullish trend due to Turkish central bank decision. It added 0.2 percent against the USD to 0.8270. New Zealand`s central bank reviews interest rates tomorrow. The JPY, viewd by some as a safe-haven investment, weakened 0.4 percent to 103.37 versus the USD. The currency pair lost for a third consecutive day. The JPY also dropped a third day against the EUR, falling 0.3 percent to 141.15. Last week, the JPY rallied 2 percent against the USD amid the emerging-market selloff.Gold, also known as a safe haven investment, dropped to 1,252.63 an ounce, while silver decreased 0.3 percent. Crude Oil rebounded to 97.12 a barrel after surging 1.8 percent yesterday. Natural gas lost 1.6 percent.

  9. #139
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jan. 30 , 2014

    After 3 days of losses, the JPY could recover against its most traded counterparts as prospects forcontinued contraction in U.S. stimulus dented demand for riskier assets including the currencies ofnations from Australia and South Africa. Yesterday, the USD climbed versus most emergingmarket currencies as the Federal Rerserve cut monthly bond buying by 10 billion USD, offsettingefforts in South Africa and Turkey to bolster their currencies through interest-rate increases. The AUD and the NZD fell after a private report signaled a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. China is the biggest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. The demand for the NZD also weakened as its central bank held rates steady, disappointing traders who were betting on an increase.
    The JPY gained 0.1 percent to 102.16 against the USD. It rose 0.2 percent versus the EUR and traded around 139.49 after yesterday reaching 139.05, the highest since the beginning of December 2013. It also climbed 0.2 percent against the AUD. AUDJPY traded around 89.21. The USD was litte changed at 1.3653 per EUR.
    The Fed said yesterday it will trim its monthly bond buying program to 65 billion USD from 75 billion USD. Today, U.S. will publish its gross domestic product. The market expects that gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent annulized pace in the fourth quarter while private consumption grew 3.7 percent.
    New Zealands Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler kept benchmark rates at a record-low 2.5 percent at a policy meeting this night. Swaps trading prior to the decision had priced about an even chance of increase.




  10. #140
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Feb. 03 , 2014

    Signs for an accelerating slowdown of the Chinese economy are increasing after a government gauge dropped to a six-month low in January due to weaker than estimated manufacturing output and falling industrial orders. Economists expressed that this might be the effects of the latest efforts to curb the growing credit. Also the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics announced that the Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.5 compared to a Bloomberg forecast of 51, which still indicates growth, but the survey also confirmed that unemployment grew and the export orders declined. Furthermore, the experts are convinced that the central bank “will have to strike a delicate balance” between the combat of shadow banking and the maintenance of the financial stability as well as economic growth.
    Besides China, the concerns regarding inflation in the European Union have put downward pressure on the EUR, which traded 0.1 percent from its weakest level in more than eight weeks. These inflation concerns have increased the probability of further easing by the ECB. The end of the week saw some slight respite as the 18 nation’s currency managed to momentarily show strength to rebound to 1.3491 after it reached 1.3479, the lowest since the 22nd of November. The JPY was able to benefit by appreciating 3.2 percent in January and established the highest monthly increase versus the USD in almost 24 months. In Asian trade overnight, the JPY lost against the USD and the EUR and was at 102.31 and 138.04 respectively, 0.3 percent below Friday’s close. The next announcement by the Japanese Central Bank Governor on whether the monthly stimulus will still continue, is scheduled for the 6th of February.



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