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  1. #201
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jun. 26 , 2013

    Overnight news has centred around the New Zealand dollar which has benefited greatly from the dovish comments from central bank leaders around the world recently. In comparison, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has acted hawkishly and already starting raising rates from their historically low levels as the first developed nation to do so earlier this year. Indeed, the central bank has raised the rates three times already and comments from the bank suggest that the bank will not stop there. In what as known as a carry trade, many investors have been using the weakness in the U.S. dollar and widening of the gap in interest rates between America and New Zealand to make money by borrowing the American currency in order to buy the Kiwi currency before exchanging back at a later date. This sort of strategy has produced 3.4 percent this month alone which is a far better return than the one which has been seen across other markets especially given the low volatility in world currency markets. The New Zealand dollar gained a further 0.3 percent to 87.63 U.S. cents overnight after it touched 87.72 cents earlier. That is the highest value seen since May 6 and within one cent of a record high as the New Zealand dollar seems to be the greatest benefactor of the weak GDP figures out of the U.S. In fact the carry trade strategy has benefited from low volatility as little changes in the value of the two currencies and hence the risk of a larger debt having to be paid back are reduced. Traders are expecting a further hike in rates in the next 12 months as the New Zealand economy gained 3.8 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. As a comparison, the U.S. economy contracted 2.9 percent in the same period. This contraction is the largest drop since the first quarter of 2009 when the financial crisis still had a strong hold on the world’s largest economy. Analysts had only expected the economy to retract by 1.9 percent due to the bad weather in North America.



  2. #202
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jun. 27 , 2013

    To continue our report from yesterday, the New Zealand dollar has continued its rise towards an all-time record after export data was released overnight. The currency is now only 0.6 percent from the record mark as more investors seem to be taking advantage of the carry trade which was mentioned in yesterday’s report. The combination of much higher interest rates in New Zealand and close to record lows in volatility in the currency markets is encouraging investors to take advantage of the interest rate differences by borrowing U.S. dollars and investing them in New Zealand. Analysts note that the current momentum in the Kiwi currency and the likely continuation of current conditions point to a strong likelihood that the currency will indeed break the record set at 88.43 U.S. cents on August 1, 2011. The high reached overnight was 87.94 and the dollar currently trades slightly off that level at around 87.77 cents.
    In other Asian news, the Japanes yen continued its strong gains against the U.S. dollar as well after positive data was released overnight. The unemployment rate unexpectedly shrank to 3.5% which is the lowest level seen since 1997. Economists had predicted the gauge would remain unchanged at 3.6%. As an extra boost, consumer prices rose at the greatest pace for over three decades last month which is increasing confidence that monetary and fiscal policies currently being implemented in Japan are having the desired effect and the speculation is rising that the Bank of Japan will not continue to boost stimulus measures. The yen rose another 0.3 percent to 101.40 yen per dollar after trading as low as 101.31 in recent trade.
    As already noted, the volatility has been much lower recently with little changes seen to the EUR/USD currency pair this week. The euro rose about 0.2 percent over the week after starting just under the $1.3600 level on Monday and currently trades around $1.3625 per euro.



  3. #203
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jun. 30 , 2013

    Due to a shrinking gross domestic product in the U.S., a weak development of the customer spendings and the expectation that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates sooner as expected, the USD continues its downward trend and weakened the most in almost three months. As a result, the Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5 percent to 1,005.04 which marked the third straight weekly decline and further the biggest since April 2011. In comparison to its major peers, the USD fell against 13 of its 16 major peers the last week. The USD lost 0.6 percent against the JPY and the pair is now traded at 101.42 JPY per USD. Overall the USD fell 0.3 percent against the JPY this month, 1.8 percent this quarter and 3.7 percent during 2014. The USD also lost in value against the EUR and this currency pair is now traded at 1.3649 USD per EUR which marks a 0.4 percent decline. The GBP showed its longest run of quarterly gains versus the USD since 2007. The GBP advanced 2.2 percent to 1.7035 GBP per USD. In June the GBP was able to gain 1.7 percent against the USD.
    Due to tensions in North Korea, Iraq and Ukraine and the corresponding geopolitical risks, the JPY registered gains against most of its major peers because the currency offers investors stability. Thus the yen reached near a one-month high against the USD after it completed a 0.6 percent weakly gain. The JPY was also able to gain in value against the EUR and rose to 138.41 JPY per EUR. The JPY gained 0.3 percent over the last week and 0.2 percent over the entire month of June. In New Zealnd the central bank increased its interest rates for the third time this month. Thus the NZD climbed to within a half-cent of a record. NZD/USD now trades at 0.8762. However, a moderately decline of the NZD is expected in the next six months.



  4. #204
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 01 , 2013

    Today the most important news comes from overseas, exactly from United States and Australia. The USD was largely influenced by the bearish mood after a disappointing regional U.S. factory data was published. It raised concerns that monetary authorities might leave interest rates low for a longer period than expected. Despite the high jump in pending home sales of 6.1 percent in May from April the dollar was traded largely lower against most major currencies and closed at an eight-week low yesterday, at $1.3692 per euro. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which compares the USD to 10 major counterparts, was at 1003.77, near the lowest close since May 6. Now the investors are turning their attention to the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report. Due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday it will be released a day earlier on Thursday. It is expected that strong jobs numbers will encourage investors to start buying the dollar again.
    The Australian dollar was 0.2 percent near its highest (0.9445) in almost three months before the nation´s central bank sets policy. Changes in rates affect interest rates in consumer loans, mortgages and bond rates. The recent rise of AUD is helping to keep lid on inflation but is also causing problems in sales of locally-made products. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold its cash target at 2.5 percent.
    In Europe, the euro zone´s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in June. This puts pressure on the ECB to think about further monetary easing measures to reach the target of 2.0 percent. Possible solutions could be further rates cutting in order to expand the money supply and to increase private demand with measures to encourage customers to borrow more money from banks hence increase number of investments and overall productivity.



  5. #205
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 03 , 2013

    There are concerns that GBP has gained an increase by 3.7 percent this year and is therefore the most overbought since the 1980s. Considering this the Bank of England may raise interest rates as Governor Mark Carney said June 12 that U.K.´s first post-crisis rate increase “could happen sooner than markets currently expect” as the economy improves. The key rate has been at an all-time low of 0.5 percent since March 2009. The overall long-term trend seems to be on the upside as the currency has reached to the strongest level versus USD since 2008. Yesterday GBP was at almost six-year high of $1.7177, from as low as $1.4814 in July 2013. If it breaks beyond $1.72 than the resistance level from 1997 will be crossed. Meanwhile the U.S. economy shrank during the first quarter by the most in five years. U.S. Dollar Index year-end predictions have dropped from 86.7 to 83.6 as the IMF reduced last month its forecast for U.S economic growth from 2.8 percent to 2.0 percent. Additionally, the Fed cut its GDP projection from 3.0 percent to 2.3 percent last month. That may spur inflation and in anticipation of higher interest rates investors starting to buy USD. The Fed has held its benchmark rate target at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. At that point inflation was at 1.4 percent, below the central bank´s 2.0 percent target. The gross domestic product shrank 2.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, the most since 2009. The AUD has reached an almost eight-month high this week climbing 5.8 percent this year after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark cash rate at a record low 2.5 percent for an 11th month. The Australian dollar has gained almost 8 percent since the Reserve Bank of Australia moved to a neutral bias in February this year. After the $0.9500 level was touched yesterday, a poorer than expected trade deficit for May put AUD under pressure and it traded at $0.94000 in the evening hours. In Europe traders will hear the results of the latest ECB meeting, where no significant new announcements are expected.



  6. #206
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 07 , 2013

    Last Friday the Dow Jones index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and is now above 17,000 for the first time. The Standard & Poor’s Index rose also 0.5 percent. Yesterday IMF chief Christine Legarde said that global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate in 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected. Risks also remain in the U.S. even as its rebound accelerates. Last Thursday the U.S. Labor Department report showed that emploers in the U.S. expanded payrolls by 288,000 workers in June, and therefore the U.S. jobless rate dropped to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent in May. Legarde also said that countries should boost growth by investing in infrastructure, education and health because central banks’ accommodative policies may only have limited impact on demand. Later in July the IMF will update its economic outlook which will be slightly different from their last forecast in April, as the forecasted a global growth by 3.6 percent this year and a 3.9 percent next year. In the meantime Fed officials are debating about how long they will keep the interest rate at a record low after completing a bond-buing program that’s set to end last this year. In June 18 the Federal Committee repeated that it expects to leave the rate near zero for a considerable time. Today U.S. markets will reopen after a holiday weekend.
    Last week the EUR touched the lowest level versus the USD since June 26, as it was 0.4 percent down and is trading now around 1.3588. The USD/JPY was at 102.11 and the EUR/JPY traded at 138.76. The AUD/USD decreased 0.7 percent last week to 93.66, which is its largest five-day tumble since May 23.



  7. #207
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 08 , 2013

    Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also fell 0.4 percent. After U.S. reports had showed a strengthening jobs market the market gauge the timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate increased. It is estimated that U.S policy makers will rise their benchmark rate in the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first quarter of 2016. The U.S. interest rate is in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to support the economy. The Fed is going to release the minutes of its June 17-18 meeting tomorrow. As a result the USD dropped 0.2 percent versus the JPY, which is the most for more than a week. The USD/JPY touched 101.86 and the EUR/USD gained 0.1 percent to 1.3605. The EUR/JPY tumbled 0.1 percent to 138.58. After the U.S. treasury 10-year note yields had advanced 10 basis points last week, it declined now three basis points to 2.61 percent.
    Economists estimated that the U.K. central bank will leave its benchmark rate at a record low 0.5 percent on July 10. But the market still estimates that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to increase interest rates. Beyond that the market assumes that the current rally of the GBP to a five-year high might soon come to an end as the Federal Reserve moves towards increasing interest rates. The GBP/USD decreased 0.2 percent to 1.7131 and the EUR/GBP fell 0.3 percent to 0.7940.
    Mario Draghi warned Greek Finance Minister that Greece should not assume its reforms have been completed. Yesterday the finance minsterst met and an official said that further emergency aid will probably be needed as the government still faces a funding shortfall and is still behind its commitments to overhaul the economy. But Greece also fought off calls to consider a third bailout.


    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 07-09-2014 at 10:12 AM.

  8. #208
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 09 , 2013

    Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also fell 0.7 percent. In addition global equity markets decreased on Tuesday while media prospects that the European Central Bank will probably not launch an asset-purchase program. On Monday ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who is against a program of asset purchases, said this should be a last resort. Furthermore data showed yesterday that imports and exports in Germany, Europes largest economy, tumbled more than estimated. Exports fell 1.1 percent in May and imports weakened by 3.4 percent in May. The EUR/USD was at 1.3610 and the EUR bought 138.18 JPY. The USD depreciated 0.3 percent to 101.51 JPY.
    The next major focus for the market will be the release of minutes today from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting, which will be scoured for sings of when central bank members see an interest rate increase as likely. On Tuesday Minneapolis Fed President said that he welcomed the recent decrease in U.S. unemployment but also warned the labor market has still a long way to go until U.S. central bank has reached its goal on unemployment.
    Yesterday a report showed that U.K. factory output dropped 1.3 percent in May from the previous month, the biggest drop since January 2013. The market estimated a rose of 0.4 percent. Nevertheless the GBP was nearly unchanged versus the EUR as investors overlooked this bad data. Furthermore the National Institue of Economic and Social Research said yesterday that the U.K. economy strengthened at a faster speed in the three months through June. The EUR/GBP was at 0.7945, after it had touched yesterday 0.7915 which was the strongest level since September 2012. The GBP/USD traded at 1.7133.



  9. #209
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 10 , 2013

    Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also increased 0.5 percent. Yesterday the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting have been released but failed to provide additional insight on the speed of future interest rate roses. According to the officials policy depends most on the evolution of the economic outlook. They agreed to monitor markets for signs of froth and only if necessary to take measures to address excessive risk-taking and associated financial imbalances. The asset purchases of the FED will probably come to an end in October this year. As a result the EUR advanced 0.2 percent for a third day against the USD to 1.3642. The USD/JPY traded at 101.64 and the EUR bought 138.65 JPY.

    Yesterday Mario Draghi said in his speech in London that euro zone states should respect their joint fiscal rules and extend their cooperation to economic reforms, and urged governments to learn to govern together. He repeated again his message that the ECB is ready to use unconventional instruments if needed, like for example large-scale asset buying. He also added that high debt made countries more vulnerable in the event of financial shocks. In addition euro zone states may be able to achieve the mutual trust that is a pre-requisite for intergration in other areas if they show the willingness to respect common fiscal rules. Beyond that ECB’s top financial supervisor said that plans to complete bank safety checks are running according to plan. The ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism is preparing to oversee around 120 banks as the leading European watchdog from November 4.
    Today the Bank of England is going to release its interest rate decision and economists forecasted that the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5 percent. Today also U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims are going to be released.



  10. #210
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective - Jul. 11 , 2013

    Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares weakened 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also dropped 0.4 percent. The Euro Stoxx even dropped 1.6 percent, extending its loss for the week to 3.3 percent which would be the biggest weekly decrease in more than a year. Furthermore stocks worldwide declined and investors flocked to safe-haven government bonds and gold based on fears problems at Portugal’s biggest listed bank.Trading in Banco Espirito Santo was halted after a 19 percent tumble. The bank’s largest shareholder suspended trading in its own shares and bonds due to material difficulties at its own largest shareholder. So the euro region remains vulnerable to shocks as it emerges from the debt crisis. In addition data yesterday revealed that in France, europe’s second largest economy, consumer prices and industrial output decreased more that estimated. In europe’s third largest economy, Italy, industrial output also decreased. As a result the EUR depreciated 0.2 percent versus the USD to 1.3609 and the EUR/JPY tumbled 0.5 percent to 137.91. The USD/JPY slid 0.3 percent to 101.07.
    On Thursday data showed that unemployment rate in Australia climbed to 6 percent in the past month from 5.9 percent in May, which is now the highest rate since July 2003. Furthermore data also showed that imports in China, which is Australias largest trading partner, only gained 5.5 percent in June from a year earlier. Economists forecasted an increase of 6 percent. As a result , the AUD/USD depreciated 0.2 percent to 0.9395.
    As estimated the Bank of England left yesterday the interest rate unchanged at a record low while trade deficit and housing data in U.K. dropped below economists’ forecast. The GBP/USD fell 0.2 percent to 1.7125 and the EUR/GBP traded at 0.7942.



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