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  1. #411
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 11th 2015

    On Thursday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.2 percent. The Treasury Department said yesterday that the U.S. federal government ran $65 billion into the red in November, up 14 percent from the same period last year when the deficit was only $57 billion. Economists had expected a $68 billion deficit for November. The current fiscal year-to-date deficit stood at $201 billion. Furthermore data showed yesterday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to a five- month high last week, but this likely does not signal a deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend remained consistent with tithening conditions. Initial jobless claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the past week, which is the highest level since early July. Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold for 40 straight weeks., which is the longest stretch since the early 1970s. Besides that other data yesterday showed that cheaper crude oil and a strong USD are keeping imported inflation pressures subdued in the pat month. The EUR/USD depreciated to 1.0937 and the USD/JPY gained to 121.90. The EUR/JPY traded at 133.30. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said inflation will rebound toward his 2 percent target next year once the effect if lower oil prices fades from the equation.
    Yesterday the Bank of England left borrowing costs at a record-low 0.5 percent in its last decision this year. Released minutes showed that the Committee voted 8-1 to keep the status quo. Officials said low oil prices and subdued wage growth would keep a lid on inflation.The GBP/USD was nearly unchanged at 1.5175 and the EUR/GBP dropped 0.5 percent to 0.7212.



  2. #412
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 14th 2015

    The dollar weakened against the other major currencies on Friday as tumbling oil prices and declines in China’s yuan dragged the wider markets lower, and dimmed expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the coming year. The dollar fell against the euro 0.48% to 1.0992, to end the week with gains of 1.03%. The dollar fell to five-week lows against the safe- haven yen to 120.57, before pulling back to 120.99 in late trade. The pair ended the week down 1.81%. The greenback was also lower against the Swiss franc and the pound, with USD/CHF at 0.9826 in late trade and GBP/USD at 1.5217. The drop in the dollar came as oil prices fell to the lowest levels since early 2009 amid expectations that a global supply glut will worsen next year. Falling oil prices have sparked renewed concerns over the health of the global economy and weighed on global inflation. Investor nervousness was exacerbated as China’s yuan fell to the lowest levels in four-and-half years on Friday, pressured lower by worries over slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy and expectations for higher U.S. interest rates.
    Most investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time since June 2006 at its upcoming meeting on December 15-16. Higher interest rates would make the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The dollar had moved higher earlier in the day after data showing that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in November, following a 0.2% increase in October.
    The solid data indicated that the economy is on a strong enough footing to support higher interest rates. A separate report showed that the U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% in November, but was down 1.1% on a year-over-year basis, pointing to ongoing weakness in inflation pressures from the strong dollar and lower oil prices.


    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 12-14-2015 at 11:40 AM.

  3. #413
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 15th 2015

    EUR/USD inched up in narrow range trading on Monday, closing at 1.0993, up 0.12% on the day as investors remained cautious ahead of a likely interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this week. EUR/USD has been relatively flat since surging more than 3% on December 3 after the European Central Bank spooked global currency markets by approving only limited easing measures with its comprehensive bond buying program at a closely-watched meeting in Frankfurt. Investors have had ample time to price in a rate hike after a host of major policymakers, including Fed chair Janet Yellen, began to send strong signals last month that the U.S. central bank could raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave rates at near-zero levels earlier this fall amid severe global economic struggles, but will likely reverse course on Wednesday as the headwinds restraining economic growth continue to fade. A succession of strong employment data over the last two months has also prompted a wave of hawkish comments from key FOMC members. On Monday, the CME Group's FedWatch placed the probability of a rate hike at 81.4. The Federal Funds Rate, the Fed's benchmark rate offered on interbank, overnight loans, has remained at its current level between zero and 0.25% since December, 2008. Any increase in the targeted range for the Federal Funds Rate is expected to be modest at 25 basis points. Along with Wednesday's rate hike decision, the FOMC will also release its quarterly economic projection for the next several years. The projection includes forecasts for U.S. GDP, civilian unemployment and the PCE Price Index, as well as estimates on the timing of its next change in the Federal Funds Rate. In September, the FOMC projected that the Fed Funds Rate would reach 1.4% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017 respectively, according to its median forecasts.



  4. #414
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 18th 2015

    U.S. stocks wiped out gains posted in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increase as the strengthening dollar sparked a selloff in commodities, sending prices to the lowest level in 16 years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index snapped a three-day rally as raw-materials producers retreated. The greenback surged to its highest level versus major peers in data going back to 2005 as the Fed’s divergence from other central banks boosted its appeal. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the currency against 10 major peers, jumped 0.8 percent after closing little changed in the wake of the Fed increase. It has rallied almost 10 percent this year in anticipation of U.S. tightening. Commodity currencies like the South African rand and the Australian and Canadian dollars led losses among major currencies after the rate hike. Citigroup Inc., the world’s largest currency trader, expects higher rates to fuel a dollar rally over 12 months, while BNP Paribas SA sees the currency strengthening more than 4 percent to $1.04 per euro by the end of March. Oil settled at its lowest price since February 2009 after government data showed U.S. crude inventories climbed to the highest level for this time of year since 1930. West Texas Intermediate oil futures slid 1.6 percent to $34.95 a barrel after sinking 4.9 percent last session. Gold and industrial metals retreated. The materials had already dropped to multi-year lows this year on signs of a slowdown in China, the world’s biggest consumer on industrial metals. Higher U.S. rates exacerbate the situation, as they typically bolster the value of the dollar - the currency used to trade most commodities - and reduce the appeal of metals as an investment.



  5. #415
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 21th 2015

    The week was dominated by the Fed, which raised rates on Wednesday for the first time in nearly a decade. he S&P and Dow had their worst two-day performance since Sept. 1, while indexes posted losses for the week. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 367.25 points, or 2.1 percent, to 17,128.55, the S&P 500 had lost 36.34 points, or 1.78 percent, to 2,005.55 and the Nasdaq Composite had dropped 79.47 points, or 1.59 percent, to 4,923.08. For the week, the Dow fell 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.2 percent. Wall Street also remained anxious over an oil glut amid a demand slowdown. U.S. crude futures settled the day down 22 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $34.73 a barrel. For the week, oil lost 2.5 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve's long-awaited rise in rates from zero showed confidence in the world's largest economy, but rival China is still struggling for a foothold with rate cuts. Although some countries, such as Brazil, have mainly home-grown inflation troubles, the Fed's first post-crisis rate hike is an unlikely cure for what ails the rest of the world. With exchange rates dominating the policy debate in many countries, what happens to the dollar will matter a lot. Along with an abrupt downturn in the volume of global trade and a continuing fall in commodity prices, the dollar's rise this year has brought U.S. industrial growth to a near- standstill, keeping a lid on inflation pressures from abroad. China's renminbi, now a reserve currency, has fallen each day for most of the past two weeks, with many bracing for further devaluation by Chinese authorities still looking for ways to stimulate the debt-laden economy.



  6. #416
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 22th 2015

    Brent oil cratered to its lowest price in more than 11 years on Monday, as demand for heating oil slumped on warmer-than-normal temperatures and traders tested for a bottom. U.S. crude remained above its 2009 low and settled up a penny a barrel as traders squared positions ahead of the January contract's expiration. The February contract declined and analysts expect stockpiles to build again this week, signaling further oversupply in already glutted market. Concerns about swelling global crude supply and slow demand sparked by economic weakness in China have been recurring themes during this year's rout. Analysts said the market was still testing for a bottom. Global oil production is running close to record highs. With more barrels poised to enter the market from nations such as Iran and Libya, the price of crude is set for its largest monthly percentage decline in seven years. While consumers have enjoyed lower fuel prices, the world's richest oil exporters have been forced to revalue their currencies, sell off assets and even issue debt for the first time in years as they struggle to repair their finances. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, shows no signs of wavering from its year-old policy of compensating for lower prices with higher production, even though its poorer members are suffering.Oil market liquidity usually evaporates ahead of the holiday period, meaning that intra-day price moves can become exaggerated. The expiration of the front-month WTI contract on Monday may further exacerbate such activity.



  7. #417
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 29th 2015

    The euro rose against most of its major peers as traders shrugged off comments by the European Central Bank’s Yves Mersch on the scope for further monetary stimulus. The common currency advanced as Mersch, a member of the executive board, said policy makers have “by no means used up all our ammunition,” according to an excerpt from an interview with the International Bankers Forum. The euro is heading toward its best month since April versus the dollar even amid additional quantitative easing in Europe and the U.S.’s first interest-rate increase since 2006. That poses a problem for policy makers in the euro area. While ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated earlier this month that the exchange rate isn’t a policy target in itself, he acknowledged it is “important” for price stability and growth. The euro advanced less than 0.1 percent to $1.0968 as of 5 p.m. in New York. The currency added less than 0.1 percent to 132.06 yen and 0.6 percent versus the pound to 73.71 pence. The euro has climbed 3.3 percent versus the greenback since the ECB extended its bond-buying program through March 2017 and cut the deposit rate to minus 0.3 percent, including a 1.3 percent rise after the Fed raised rates on Dec. 17. Australian energy and materials shares followed U.S. and European counterparts lower as concerns about the global oversupply of crude reasserted themselves to snap a rally in oil. Gauges of mining and energy shares dropped at least 1 percent in Sydney, where trade resumed after Christmas holidays. Crude was steady after sliding more than 3 percent Monday.



  8. #418
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective December 31th 2015

    Global stocks extended their first annual slide in four years as oil resumed a retreat amid data showing an increase in American inventories. The dollar gained versus commodity currencies. U.S. stocks fell from a three-week high amid trading that was more than 40 percent below the 30-day average. European equities extended their worst December drop since 2002, while emerging-market equities sank as oil fell below $37 a barrel in New York on data showing an increase in American inventories. The Russian ruble and Brazil’s real led a retreat in currencies. The dollar strengthened. Global equities are heading for their first decline in four years as a slowdown in the Chinese economy fueled the biggest retreat in raw materials prices in seven years at the same time the Federal Reserve ended its zero interest-rate policy. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 25 percent in 2015, while global bonds have returned 0.8 percent. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent at 4 p.m. in New York after rallying 1.1 percent Tuesday. The index extended losses in afternoon trading, with declines halting at the gauge’s average price for the past 200 days. The benchmark has lost 0.8 percent in December amid the Fed’s first rate increase in nearly a decade. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent, after climbing 1.4 percent on Tuesday. The number of shares changing hands was about half the 30-day average. Oil fell after industry data showed an unexpected increase in crude inventories last week. West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.4 percent to settle at $36.60 a barrel. The contract is down 31 percent this year. Brent slid 2.9 percent to $36.68. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding to the glut of supplies that’s pushed prices down below $40 a barrel.


    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 12-31-2015 at 12:46 PM.

  9. #419
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 6th 2016

    The Canadian dollar fell to a 12-year low Tuesday and traders started pricing in more than a 40 percent chance of a rate cut by May, up from the 31 percent probability seen on Dec. 31, amid signs of economic weakness in China and declines in the price of oil, among Canada’s largest exports. The Bank of Canada is counting on export growth and stability in crude prices to revive the economy after what may have been the slowest annual expansion since 2009. Yet speculation is brewing that policy makers will drop their target rate a quarter-point to 0.25 percent, where it bottomed in 2009-2010. The euro slumped to its lowest in a month as an inflation report highlighted the persistent gap between economic growth in the currency bloc and in the U.S. The common currency fell a fourth day, extending its longest losing streak since November, as a consumer-price index for the region trailed forecasts. The yen rallied a second day even as China intervened to support share prices following a 7 percent rout on Monday. Japan’s currency, a traditional safe haven, touched its highest since October on Monday. The euro slid 0.8 percent to $1.0748 as of 5 p.m. in New York, its weakest on a closing basis since Dec. 2. The yen added 0.3 percent to 119.06 per dollar. It touched 118.70 on Monday, its strongest since Oct. 15. Euro-area inflation advanced 0.2 percent from a year earlier in December, a report from the European Union’s statistics office showed. The median estimate of 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was a 0.3 percent increase. The inflation rate remains far below policy makers’ near-2 percent target. The U.S. consumer price index was up 0.5 percent in November from a year earlier.



  10. #420
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 11th 2016

    The yen surged to its strongest since August as a rout in assets linked to Chinese economic growth prompted hedge funds and other large speculators to turn bullish on the haven currency for the first time since before Shinzo Abe came to power in 2012. Japan’s currency has surged 3 percent so far this year, the biggest gain among 31 major peers, as an eight-day run of reductions to the yuan’s reference rate through Thursday sent shock waves through financial markets. The dollar on Friday completed its biggest weekly drop versus the yen since August 2013 as traders pared bets on a March interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve, ignoring data that showed employers added more jobs than economists had forecast in December. The yen rose 0.4 percent to 116.79 per dollar as of 6:52 a.m. in Singapore after touching 116.70, the strongest level since Aug. 24. Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday Monday. The dollar rose after a report showed U.S. jobs growth exceeded forecasts, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year. A greenback index touched the highest in more than a decade before paring gains after Labor Department data showed lower- than-forecast wage patterns tempered the employment increase. The U.S. currency also strengthened as China’s central bank set a higher yuan fix and state-controlled funds were said to buy equities, damping turmoil that roiled global markets this week. The greenback rose 0.1 percent to $1.0922 per euro and slipped 0.4 percent to 117.26 yen as of 5 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 peers, added 0.3 percent to 1,240.22. The measure has gained for nine of the past 10 days.



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