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  1. #531
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 16 , 2016

    • GBP weakens ahead of Theresa May’s speech on Brexit tomorrow
    • On Friday, Donald Trump’s inaugural address will be closely watched
    • A number of key economies release December inflation reports this week including UK, US and euro area

    Focus remains on GBP at the start of this week after GBPUSD dropped 1% on the open yesterday evening, dipping below 1.2000 and remaining soft overnight. The catalyst came from numerous newspaper articles over the weekend speculating around Theresa May’s Brexit speech tomorrow (time TBC)
    The articles alluded to the continued “hard Brexit” stance of May, emphasising the potential of leaving the single market and the Customs Union, as well as potential of stepping away from abiding by the European Court of Justice after the 2-year Article 50 period
    With a lot now priced in for a “hard” stance from May during the speech, GBP could rally if her rhetoric is softer than expected. Resistance in GBPUSD comes in at 1.2080, ahead of 1.2250 and 1.2440. Support below 1.2000 is less clear but our traders look for short term support at 1.1983 (overnight low), ahead of 1.1800 and 1.1500
    Also this week, we could get the Supreme court ruling on Article 50, as the decision has to be announced by mid January
    A ruling for an active role of the UK parliament in triggering Article 50 is already largely priced in sterling, in our view
    However, there is a low but non-zero probability that the Supreme Court could also force the government to secure approval from devolved institutions to trigger Article 50 (Scotland, Northern Ireland). Such an outcome would likely delay Brexit and drive a rebound in GBP
    On Friday, attention will turn to Donald Trump’s inauguration which will officially mark the beginning of a new era for US politics
    Markets will follow closely follow Trump’s inaugural speech in order to get any piece of information regarding the direction of his administration, although this might not be the ideal setting for specific policy discussion
    Market attention in coming weeks will likely be on tax reform and the potential implementation of protectionist trade policies

  2. #532
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 17 , 2016

    • Focus today will be on Theresa May’s speech on Brexit, expected at c.11.30
    • BoE Governor Carney commented on the trade-off that the BoE faces between inflation and output
    • UK December inflation data released at 09.30

    Attention today will be on Theresa May’s speech expected to take place at c.11.30, though the exact timing is unconfirmed. May will set out her plan for Brexit and there is speculation that she will say that the UK is likely to pull out of the single market and seek a completely new trading relationship with the bloc
    A Telegraph article suggested that May has a 12 point plan for Brexit negotiation measures with no intention of being a partial or associate member of the EU or any position that leaves us half in or half out
    Expectations that her rhetoric will lean towards a “hard Brexit” are already largely priced in but confirmation of this could still weigh on GBP particularly if there is mention of an unwillingness to compromise on removing the supremacy of the ECJ in English law. Any 'softer' rhetoric or a focus on the economy and growth could see a more aggressive rally in GBP
    GBPUSD has risen above 1.2100 this morning. GBPUSD support comes in at 1.1983, yesterday’s low, with resistance at 1.2150, ahead of 1.2250 and 1.2440. EURGBP support comes in short term around the 0.8750-60 area, ahead of 0.8695 and 0.8630, with resistance at 0.8850 and 0.8900
    The dollar weakened across the board overnight on the back of a WSJ article in which Trump suggested that the USD was “too strong” (referring to China’s CNH intervention), whilst criticising the GOP Border Adjustment Tax Plan as being “too complicated”
    Last night, BoE Governor Mark Carney gave a speech on the trade-off that the BoE faces between inflation and output
    Barclays Research commented that “…his speech was somewhat more downbeat than most recent MPC speakers, [and] we would interpret the speech as setting up the argument for why the MPC can remain on hold in the face of rising inflation later this year …”
    The reaction to his speech was muted being somewhat overshadowed by the anticipation of May’s speech today

  3. #533
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 18 , 2016

    • Yesterday GBP posted largest daily gain vs USD since 2008 after May’s speech
    • UK inflation rises, driven by increases in air fares and food prices
    • The data calendar is busy today, with UK employment data (09.30), euro area inflation (10.00) and US inflation (13.30)

    In her speech yesterday, Theresa May outlined the approach that the government will take to EU negotiations. She laid out her 12 main priorities and made it clear that the UK will not be seeking membership to the single market but will instead strive towards a “bold and ambitious” free trade agreement with the EU. Much of the content was expected/ had been previously leaked but the tone was a little more conciliatory towards the EU than previous rhetoric, which helped bolster sentiment
    GBPUSD rallied strongly in response to the speech, recovering its losses from the start of the week but it is worth noting that other factors played a role in lifting sterling including the broader USD sell-off
    GBPUSD support now comes in at 1.2250 while resistance can be found at the 50 day MA around 1.2412
    UK inflation data was keenly watched yesterday morning. Headline CPI increased to +1.6%y/y in December, up from 1.2% in November and above consensus expectations of 1.4%
    According to the ONS, price rises in air fares and food were the main contributors to the increase
    We expect core inflation to remain on an upward trend, driven by strong domestic demand and currency pass-through which is likely to support both services and goods prices. Barclays Research expect headline/core CPI inflation to average 2.6%/2.3% in 2017 and 2.1%/2.1% in 2018
    The downward momentum in the dollar continued yesterday and the broader selloff that has been ongoing since the start of 2017 was exacerbated this week after Donald Trump commented that the strength of the USD (vs CNY) could be a problem for the US economy
    However, it is worth noting that similar selloffs in the dollar have occurred in previous years at the start of the year due to the tendency for long USD positions to build up into yearend, which are later unwound
    The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its overnight interest rate target unchanged at 0.5% today (15.00)

  4. #534
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 20 , 2016

    • Asian equities trade mixed overnight as USD weakens
    • ECB leaves rates on hold as expected
    • Markets look to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration

    Following the weak performance of European and US equity markets, Asian stocks traded mixed overnight. The USD weakened after less aggressive comments yesterday night by Fed Chair Yellen (compared with her speech on Wednesday)
    Yellen commented that economic growth seems “unlikely to pick up markedly in the near term”. She stated that the Fed is not behind the curve in containing inflation and that she considers it “prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time.”
    As was widely expected, the ECB left policy on hold at yesterday’s meeting. ECB President Draghi commented that the increase in headline inflation is largely the result of base effects driven by energy and food prices and may be only temporary, whilst noting that the GC saw no signs that underlying core inflation was improving or would be improving in the months ahead
    During the Q&A, President Draghi explained that the definition of price stability was based on the medium term and had to be a durable and self sustained convergence for the whole of the euro area
    We do not expect euro area headline inflation to be self-sustained at close to 2% in 2018 and Barclays Research...” expect monetary accommodation to persist into 2018, but at a reduced pace of c.EUR35-40bn in H1 and EUR15-20bn in H2…”
    GBP had a calmer day yesterday. The response to Theresa May’s speech in Davos was somewhat muted as she reiterated points made in her speech on Tuesday around Britain being open for trade
    GBPUSD support remains at 1.2250, with short-term resistance around the 1.2400-1.2430 area. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8600, with resistance at 0.8700
    The key event today is the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump as he is sworn in as the 45th President of the US
    Markets will closely follow Trump’s inaugural speech (c.17.00 LDN) for any information regarding the direction of his administration, although this might not be the ideal setting for specific policy discussion
    Market attention in coming weeks will likely be on tax reform and the potential implementation of protectionist trade policies

  5. #535
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 26 , 2016

    • Sterling outperforms in the G10 space
    • Likelihood of snap election in Italy grows
    • Global equities rally continues

    Yesterday the Bloomberg dollar index was c.0.5% down as the USD hit a 7-week low against a basket of currencies. Concerns have grown this week as US President Trump has signed executive orders that focus on his campaign trail rhetoric of protectionism and isolationism
    The biggest gainer yesterday in the G10 space was Sterling, as GBPUSD spiked above 1.2600 for the first time in six weeks, with further Brexit clarity continuing to correlate with GBP strength
    In Italy, the Constitutional Court deemed the second-ballot runoff system unconstitutional yesterday. Barclays Research “...believe the ruling makes snap elections in Q2 17 more likely...” BTPs reacted negatively to the announcement of the Court decision late yesterday. In contrast, Barclays Research think “...early elections should be considered a positive development because if a pro-reform coalition emerges from the snap elections in June, it would help to jump-start the reform agenda sooner...”
    EURGBP also saw a significant day of movement, nearing close-to YTD lows, with next support at 0.8405 (200dma)
    Equity markets in Asia rallied overnight, likely buoyed by the strong performance in European and US markets yesterday
    The DJIA broke the 20,000 mark for the first time, whilst the DAX rose to the highest level since May 2015

  6. #536
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective January 30 , 2016

    • USD traded softer after Trump’s executive order banning travel for 7-Muslim countries into the US
    • Hamon won the Socialist nomination for the Presidential election
    • Policy meetings in the US, UK, and Japan in focus this week

    The President Donald Trump’s executive order banning travel for citizens of 7 predominantly Muslim countries into the US left markets volatile and with a risk off sentiment. In FX, the USD traded lower across the board before recovering its losses since London open, with the moves more pronounced vs. EM pairs. US politics will continue to capture market attention, as the priorities of the Trump administration become clearer
    Although Trump’s policies will continue to be volatile and unpredictable, our traders think that it is likely that the market begins to ignore those not directly affecting the US economy. Our traders have no strong view intraday for the USD
    In France, Benoit Hamon won the Socialist nomination for the Presidential election with almost 59%, defeating former Prime Minister Manuel Valls. According to latest polls, Le Pen remains in the lead for the first round, while Fillon and Macron would both defeat her in the second round
    In focus this week will be policy meetings in the US, UK, and Japan. Although we expect no policy shift this time, the central banks’ views on the inflation outlook and signalling on future tightening will be watched
    At the FOMC meeting, Barclays Research “…expect no change in the target range for the fed funds rate, but the statement should reflect its more upbeat view on labour markets…” In addition, we are broadly in line with consensus for Friday’s NFPs, which should keep showing a solid labour market
    Barclays Research continue to think the Bank of Japan remain on hold for now, in line with consensus. Meanwhile in the UK, Barclays Research “…expects no change in policy and the MPC should focus on the macroeconomic forecasts released in the Inflation Report, which could include upward revisions…”

  7. #537
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective February 01 , 2016

    • USD stabilizes somewhat overnight after falling on Trump’s comments yesterday
    • GBP experienced a volatile session yesterday
    • Focus is on the FOMC rate decision this evening

    Overnight the USD stabilized somewhat against the majority of its major peers after trading on the back foot yesterday as markets weighed the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision this evening
    EURUSD rallied to a high of 1.0812 (Bloomberg) driven by comments by Peter Navarro (head of Mr Trump’s new National Trade Council) around the Euro being “…grossly undervalued…” Elsewhere in Europe, inflation data beat expectations comfortably in both France and Spain
    GBP experienced a volatile session in yesterday trading driven primarily by month-end flows. GBPUSD dipped to lows of 1.2413 (Bloomberg) but retraced back to towards short term resistance at 1.2600, with broader USD weakness later in the session. Our traders think GBP should continue to outperform vs. its major peers leading up to Article 50, but acknowledge that the Bank of England’s rate decision (Thursday) could heighten volatility
    In focus today will be the Federal Reserve policy decision at 19.00 this evening. Despite a notably hawkish shift in tone at its December meeting, we expect no change in the target range for the fed funds rate, but the statement should reflect the committee’s more upbeat view on labour markets. We think it is too early to start discussions on the scaling back of the balance sheet despite the Fed’s recent hawkish rhetoric

  8. #538
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective February 02 , 2016

    • USD resumes its decline after a more dovish than expected Fed meeting
    • Prime Minister Theresa May remains on course to start the two-year Brexit process next month
    • In focus today will be the Bank of England’s MPC and inflation report

    The USD resumed its decline against its major peers after the Federal Reserve signalled that it is in no hurry to raise the benchmark interest rate. As widely expected, the FOMC kept policy on hold. After hiking at the December meeting, the FOMC was not expected to act; however, the statement also removed some of the more upbeat comments on inflation
    We read the statement as more dovish than expected as the Fed did not go as far as we thought in the statement in declaring victory in labour markets
    We maintain our call for two rate hikes this year, with risks towards a slightly steeper tightening path. Focus now turns to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report
    In the UK, Parliament voted against the amendment calling for Article 50 legislation to be abandoned, leaving Theresa May on course to start the two-year Brexit process next month
    In focus today is the Bank of England’s MPC, where we expect no change in policy but potential upward revisions to the macroeconomic forecasts released in the Inflation Report
    Given the resilience of domestic activity, the Bank of England seems to have shifted its focus from Brexit to inflation. We do not expect the Committee to counter expectations of future rate hikes, as they offer some support to GBP and mitigate risks of inflation overshoot
    GBP continues to trade with a bid tone (vs. USD and EUR) but our traders see the potential for GBP to depreciate after having rallied strongly of late. GBPUSD support remains at 1.2400, with short term resistance at 1.2775. For EURGBP, support can be found at 0.8470 and 0.8420 (100 dma) with resistance at

  9. #539
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective February 03 , 2016

    • Bank of England leaves policy unchanged but lowers estimated equilibrium unemployment rate
    • David Davis hints that limits on EU immigration may not be introduced for several years
    • US employment report in focus today

    It was an eventful day for GBP yesterday, with the focus on the Bank of England. The MPC kept rates on hold as widely anticipated and raised 2017 GDP forecasts to 2% (from 1.4% previously) and 2018 forecasts to 1.6% (from 1.5% previously), whilst leaving inflation forecasts largely unchanged. However, markets focused on the lowering of the estimated equilibrium unemployment rate to 4.5% (from 5% previously), indicating that there is slack in the labour market, which would enable the Bank of England to keep rates lower for longer, if required
    GBP weakened vs. USD and EUR in response. Having briefly broken through 1.2700 earlier in the session, GBPUSD fell to below 1.2550 through the course of the afternoon
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.2500, with short term resistance at 1.2700 ahead of 1.2775. For EURGBP, support can be found at 0.8470 with resistance at 0.8710
    Elsewhere in the UK, Brexit secretary David Davis hinted that limits on EU immigration may not be introduced for several years, in a white paper on the UK’s negotiating objectives
    Market focus today will be on US nonfarm payrolls at 13.30 which will give an indication of the health of the US labour market and will constitute an important data point in determining the timing of the next Fed interest rate hike
    We expect this month’s report to continue to show a solid labour market. Barclays Research expect non-farm payrolls to come in at +175k, the unemployment rate to decline one tenth to 4.6% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m

  10. #540
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective February 06 , 2016

    • Sterling weakened last week as the BoE left policy unchanged but markets saw risks for long term low rates
    • US employment report remains solid
    • In a quiet week of data ahead, central banks will be in focus

    ThLast week was eventful for GBP, with the focus on the Bank of England MPC meeting on Thursday. The MPC kept rates on hold as widely anticipated however, markets focused on the lowering of the estimated equilibrium unemployment rate to 4.5% (from 5% previously), indicating that there is slack in the labour market, which would enable the Bank of England to keep rates lower for longer, if required
    After previously gaining earlier in the week, GBP weakened vs. USD and EUR after the MPC. GBPUSD has fallen over 2 big figures to sit below 1.2500 and EURGBP moved from 0.8500 levels to currently sit at 0.8615
    In a data void today, our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.2415, with short term resistance at 1.2580. For EURGBP, support can be found at 0.8600 with resistance at 0.8650
    On Friday, markets looked to US nonfarm payrolls which expanded by 227k in January, stronger than both our (175k) and consensus expectations (180k). The three-month moving average rose to 182k (Figure 1) and points to improved momentum after the December softness
    Overall, the headline job numbers in this report were stronger than expected; however, Barclays Research note “… we see no reason to be overly optimistic in the detail, in our view, payroll increases in the 200k range are consistent with continued economic expansion, and as long as labor markets improve at or around this pace, we view risks surrounding the recovery as broadly balanced and see no substantive recession concerns…”
    In a week without material G10 data, instead we turn attention to central banks around the world, and their base rate decisions
    Barclays Research expect no change in rates in Australia (Tues), New Zealand (Weds) and Poland (Weds). In Mexico (Thur), we expect Banxico to hike 50bp, while in India (Weds) we think the RBI will cut policy rates 25bp

 

 
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