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  1. #611
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 1 August 2017

    • Asian equity markets trade higher whilst WTI rallies above $50/bl
    • EURUSD and GBPUSD extend their gains as the broader soft USD sentiment persists
    • Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates and economic forecasts unchanged

    The commodity rally continued with WTI above $50/bl for the first time since May whilst Asian equities traded higher across the board. This was following strong data releases including Japanese earnings, Chinese manufacturing PMI (51.1 vs 50.4 est.) and South Korean exports (+20% y/y) which all reinforced optimism for growth global growth.
    In FX, a firmer European core inflation print and significant USD month end supply saw EURUSD rally above 1.1800 and GBPUSD rally above 1.3200, with both holding onto their gains this morning. The broader soft USD sentiment continues to persist, following the firing of White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci after just 10 days in office.
    From a technical perspective, our traders think that the EURUSD break beyond 1.1783 (previous highs) now leaves the pair to target 1.2000 resistance. We think GBPUSD price action will continue to be led by the USD ahead of the Bank of England (Thursday), with short term support at 1.3160, ahead of 1.3050 and 1.2930 whilst resistance is at 1.3235.
    Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates and economic forecasts unchanged while warning that a rising currency is expected to subdue inflation and weigh on the outlook for growth. We continue to expect a February rate hike although risk remains tilted towards delays.
    In focus today, we look to US data including the personal income and spending report, ISM manufacturing, and construction spending, which should paint a positive picture of the US economy. Meanwhile, we think European data today is likely to show more evidence of the economic acceleration.

  2. #612
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 2 August 2017

    • Equity markets rally as corporate results boost market sentiment
    • A number of manufacturing sentiment releases were mixed
    • Markets look to the Reserve Bank of India today

    European equities closed the day higher despite mixed data in developed markets and Asian equities rallied, led by technology stocks, as corporate results boosted market sentiment. In FX, the USD was mixed against its G10 peers. Despite geopolitical tensions, USDJPY rallied overnight which, in part, was led by the equities rally. Meanwhile, NZDUSD sold off c. 0.5% on weaker than expected New Zealand employment data.
    A number of manufacturing sentiment releases were generally disappointing. Most notably, the India manufacturing PMI contracted to 47.9, its lowest level since February 2009, which appears related to the goods and services tax implementation. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI was revised down to 56.6 from a “flash” reading of 56.8, and the US ISM manufacturing index softened to 56.3 in July from 57.8 in June. The UK unexpectedly bucked the trend, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 55.1, driven by a large boost to new export orders.
    GBP traded within a relatively tight range yesterday, with an initial bid tone vs. the EUR and USD following the Manufacturing PMI print. Whilst the main focus for GBP will be the Bank of England tomorrow, we think GBPUSD price action will likely be driven by the broader USD sentiment in the interim.
    We expect the RBI to keep policy rates on hold today, versus the consensus forecast of a 25bp cut in the repo rate. While the recent fall in CPI inflation and a stronger INR have increased the risks of a repo rate cut in H2 17, no change in rates continues to be our baseline expectation for the August policy meeting.

  3. #613
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 3 August 2017

    • Would BOE Derail Or Accelerate GBP Rally?
    • FX Markets Sputter Along
    • USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower On Trade Concerns Despite Oil Surge

    The pound managed to climb to its best level since September 2016 against the US dollar today. That was despite news UK construction PMI came in weaker at 51.9 vs. 54.3 expected. In the US, the ADP private sector payrolls report came in at 178,000 compared to 187,000 expected. But the upward revision to June's figure (to 191K from 158K) meant that overall the ADP report was a touch better than expected. However, it didn't help the dollar whatsoever. It is obvious that the dollar bulls are waiting for the official non-farm payrolls report and wages data on Friday before potentially stepping in. If these figures come in significantly above expectations then the dollar may make a meaningful comeback, else the cable's rally will most likely continue.
    FX markets are a bit messy as summer market liquidity is not helping matters but currency markets stammer along. very choppy overnight session void of any particular catalyst but the eye opening interest in the EUR crosses has percolated through to EURO strength once again. With the EURUSD downside appearing very limited at this stage traders are left mulling the decision to either flatten up and hope for a dip buying opportunity or throw all caution to the wind and jump in at the top of the current cycle hoping for a test of 1.2000.
    The Canadian dollar is trading lower against the US dollar on Wednesday. The loonie failed to capitalize on the US private payrolls slip and the rise in oil prices after a surprise gasoline demand surge. The Trump Administration has turned its focus on immigration and trade putting pressure on the Canadian currency.

  4. #614
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 4 August 2017

    • Dovish Bank of England’s MPC prompts GBP and gilt yields lower
    • AUD outperforms on strong data, despite downgrades in its growth outlook
    • Focus on the US employment report today

    Asian equity markets were mixed ahead of the US employment report, whilst the EUR maintained its gains against the USD overnight. In yesterday trading, better than expected UK PMI’s prompted GBP to rally, a move that quickly gave way after a dovish Bank of England drove the currency lower and 10y gilt yield to decline 9bp.
    The Bank of England’s MPC left monetary policy unchanged at the August meeting, as consensus expected, with the vote split once again with Saunders and McCafferty maintaining their votes for a hike. Governor Carney delivered a somewhat more balanced message after the August MPC as the lower GDP forecast (1.9% to 1.7% for 2017) now more convincingly reflects disappointing data since the beginning of the year.
    Overnight, GBP trading relatively unchanged even with BoE deputy governor Broadbent commenting that there may be a possibility that "…interest rates go up a little bit…"
    In contrast, AUD outperformed its G10 peers after retail sales beat expectations and despite the RBA downgrading its near-term growth outlook. The RBA now forecasts the trade-weighted AUD index almost 5% higher than previously.
    Data continued to be mixed yesterday. US factory orders rebounded strongly in June, but no more than expected. The US non-manufacturing ISM moderated more than expected, to 53.9 from 57.4 in June, and Euro Area final service and composite PMIs were revised marginally lower.
    Markets look to the US employment report later today. We expect headline payrolls to increase by 175k, private payrolls to rise 170k, and the unemployment rate to decline by one-tenth to 4.3%, reversing last month’s rise.

  5. #615
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 8 August 2017

    • Asian stocks edged down despite the risk on sentiment in US equity markets
    • Dovish speeches from both Bullard and Kashkari yesterday, highlighted soft inflation in the US
    • Focus today will be on the vote of no confidence against South African President Zuma

    Overnight, Asian stocks markets edged down despite the positive performance of the US equity market yesterday in a quiet summer session.
    There was a risk-on sentiment in US equity markets yesterday. The DOW posted its 9th consecutive record closing high, with Boeing and Goldman the drivers of the rally.
    The S&P closed up 0.16% to post its latest record high. The Nasdaq closed up 0.5% .
    The ZAR rallied yesterday after it was announced that the South African National Assembly will hold a secret vote of no confidence on President Zuma. The no-confidence motion requires half plus one votes to pass, and would mean the ousting of President Zuma .
    The market perceives the secret ballot, as opposed to a public vote, as marginally increasing the probability of approving the ousting motion. However, the ruling ANC controls 62% of the Assembly and has voted along party lines in previous attempts. The vote is scheduled to take place today (result expected after 1pm LDN).
    Yesterday in the US, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President Bullard both made dovish speeches, highlighting soft inflation.
    In FX, in what was a quiet start to the week in markets, EURUSD edged higher to break above 1.1800 again. The NZD remained offered on the back of inflation guidance being revised downwards.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 ahead of 1.2930, with 1.3160 short term resistance ahead of YTD highs at 1.3267. EURGBP support comes in at 0.9000 with resistance at 0.9060 ahead of 0.9130.

  6. #616
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 9 August 2017

    Brexit Monitor: What to Watch in Coming Months
    Divided cabinet complicates Brexit negotiations
    The third round of Brexit negotiations is set to take place in Brussels between 28 August and 4 September. Previously, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier had said the negotiations were proceeding too slowly, meaning that negotiations in phase 1 (divorce bill, citizens' rights and Irish border) may not be concluded in October as hoped for. If not, the next possibility is in December, when the next EU summit after the one in October takes place.
    Due to the poor election result, PM Theresa May's position has weakened and the minority government is under pressure from both remainers and Brexiters. This is the main reason we have seen very different statements from cabinet members, for example on whether to agree on a transit ional deal or not. The divided cabinet complicates the negotiations, as it is difficult to see what the UK wants to achieve from the negotiations.
    The UK government is expected to publish a series of position papers on the divorce bill and the Irish border issue over the coming months - one tranche before the third round of the negotiations and the second before the fourth round. Markets will focus on whether the UK is willing to compromise in order to reach an agreement. The Daily Telegraph reported that the UK is ready to pay a divorce bill of EUR40bn (against the EU's estimates in the range of EUR60-100bn) but only if the EU starts negotiations about the future relationship. A Downing Street source later denied the story. In our view, the divorce bill remains the biggest obstacle to the negotiations, not least given the weak minority government in the UK.

  7. #617
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 11 August 2017

    • How the Markets Could React to a North Korea Strike
    • A Vexing Vix
    • Gold Nears A Tipping Point
    • Yen Safety Demand Prompts Key USD/JPY Breakdown

    It's difficult to interpret a rational response to an untested modern day warfare strategy using nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, below are a number of possible market scenarios under 'flash' and 'short-term' constraints.
    A nuclear flashpoint is difficult to factor as its considered a non-traditional build up to conflict.
    It's assumed that the U.S would be required to destroy North Korea's ability to retaliate in one massive short onslaught, not just its ballistic missile capability. Any strike of this scale would require a massive deployment of battleships and aviation assets to the region.
    There are two main reason for that:

    • Seoul, South Korea lies less than -100km from the border. It is within artillery strike.
    • Japan is also within range of missiles and could expect a heavy bombardment.

    US political uncertainty and North Korean sabre -rattling has lit a fire under the comatose Vix volatility index which popped above 15 % overnight.The geopolitically influenced global stock market thrashing has driven investor angst into overdrive as volatility is back in vogue it seems, thanks to the escalation of North Korea-US rhetoric.
    The war of words between Trump and Kim escalated Thursday and that sent a shudder through markets and a flight to safety that boosted gold near some key levels. The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged. US CPI is due on Friday. The Premium short on DAX30 was closed at 12010 for 220 pts, leaving other 2 indices trades in progress.
    Though the US dollar was relatively flat on Thursday, USD/JPY made a key breakdown below a confluence of price support as a result of sustained demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen amid rising tensions and saber-rattling between North Korea and the US.
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 08-11-2017 at 04:37 PM.

  8. #618
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 14 August 2017

    • Risk markets stabilize as North Korea tensions show signs of easing
    • US CPI for July came in slightly softer than expected
    • NAFTA renegotiations and the Fed/ECB minutes in focus this week

    Positive economic data was overshadowed by geopolitical risk last week as tensions around North Korea rose. Risk markets sold off and safe havens rallied but angst is showing signs of abating this morning as the CIA director and the National Security Advisor downplayed the risk of military action.
    US core inflation came in weaker than expected yet again in July, rising only 0.1% m/m (1.7% y/y), driven by weaker than expected core services. USD fell against most peers as a result.
    Barclays Research believes that “…the downward trend in core services … may be longer lasting and will make it harder for inflation to accelerate at a fast pace next year…”.
    GBP continued to underperform in G10 space as it failed to strengthen against USD despite the miss in US CPI. Focus will now shift to a number of key UK data releases this week starting with inflation on Tuesday followed by June labour market data on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday.
    The first round of NAFTA renegotiations officially starts this week and although the negotiations are following the institutional channel, headline risk will be high as the US could use trade enforcement as an effective way to score political points.
    Central bank minutes will gather attention this week as both the Fed and the ECB will release the minutes from their latest meetings as markets wait for Jackson Hole.
    For the Fed minutes, focus will be on concern with incoming inflation data and more details on balance sheet normalization whilst the ECB minutes will be scrutinized to determine the Governing Council’s comfort with the recent EUR appreciation.

  9. #619
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 15 August 2017

    Geopolitical Tensions Abate, But Safe Havens Remain Poised for Further Potential Gains
    The intense, threat-filled rhetoric between North Korea and the US that pulled down equity markets and pushed up safe-haven demand last week toned down a notch over the weekend, putting investors at more ease. Senior US officials, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have appeared to take on a much more diplomatic and conciliatory stance to North Korea than President Trump has, which gave the markets some confidence that a military/nuclear confrontation may likely be avoided for the time being.
    As a result of this perceived decline in geopolitical risk from last week, safe haven assets including gold, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc initially fell early on Monday. As trading continued through the day, however, gold and the yen pared some of their losses, even as US stocks retained and even extended their initial gains as of around midday.
    Despite the apparent lull in market risk perceptions, the fact that safe haven assets continued to remain well-supported suggests that concerns have not entirely abated. Indeed, North Korea's Liberation Day celebration is slated for Tuesday, and tensions and rhetoric could once again heat up.

  10. #620
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 16 August 2017

    • Risk sentiment improves and USD rallies after strong US retail sales
    • GBP falls following weaker than expected July inflation
    • UK labour market data, NAFTA renegotiations and Fed minutes in focus today

    Risk sentiment continued to improve yesterday after North Korea stated it would not unilaterally attack Guam. Equity markets finished the day largely higher, the USD outperformed after US retail sales surprised to the upside while GBP fell following a weaker than expected inflation print.
    EURGBP made new year-to-date highs above 0.9100 whilst GBPUSD broke short term support to trade down to 1.2850.
    Headline UK inflation came in slightly below consensus yesterday at 2.6% y/y (consensus: 2.7%) for July as lower fuel prices offset upward contributions in food, clothing and furniture.
    Barclays Research expects “…headline inflation to plateau at current levels in H2 17 before falling back to 2% fairly quickly in the early months of next year…”.
    Focus today will fall on the labour market data this morning with most attention on wage growth due to the BoE’s growing concern of a squeeze on the consumer amid high inflation.
    US data surprised to the upside yesterday with retail sales coming in at 0.6% m/m for July (consensus: 0.3%) driven by a pick-up in auto sales, building materials and non-store retail.
    Focus now shifts to the FOMC minutes released this evening which should provide more details on the members’ concern with inflation and the timing of balance sheet reductions.
    NAFTA renegotiations formally begin today and uncertainty surrounding the negotiation coupled with the possibility that the US uses trade enforcement elevates headline risks to MXN and CAD.

 

 
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