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  1. #671
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 7 November 2017

    • Euro Drifts South in Technical Trade
    • Gold Starts Week With Strong Gains

    US numbers ended the week on a disappointing note, as payrolls and wage growth missed their forecasts. After a decline in September, a result of the hurricanes which battered the US, nonfarm payrolls rebounded sharply with a reading of 261 thousand. This was a respectable number, but still fell short of the forecast of 312 thousand. Wage growth also disappointed, slowing to 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.2%. This marked the first time in 2017 that wage growth did not increase, underlining persistent weak inflation. Although Fed Chair Yellen and other Fed policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation levels will rise, this is still yet to occur, despite strong growth and a labor market at capacity.
    European equities trade with small losses in this week's opening session. US stock markets opened narrowly mixed.
    Bill Dudley, the influential head of the NY Fed, announced plans to retire next year before his term expires. Mr Dudley is planning the mid-2018 retirement to "ensure that a successor is in place well before the end of his term" in January 2019, the regional branch of the central bank said.
    Donald Trump accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices on the first leg of his five-nation Asia tour, during which the American president will focus on improving the US trade balance and efforts to press North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.
    Just one in seven people from Catalonia believe the current standoff between Barcelona and Madrid will end in independence for the region while more than two thirds think the process has been bad for the economy, a survey showed.
    German industrial orders rose unexpectedly in September (1% M/M), driven by strong demand from other euro zone countries for capital goods including machines and vehicles, suggesting the economy will extend its solid upswing into the coming months.

  2. #672
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 8 November 2017

    • Reports of possible delays to US tax reforms weigh on USD
    • Quiet session in GBP, focus on Brexit negotiations in coming days
    • RUB underperforms on concerns of extended US sanctions

    US and European equity indices finished the day largely lower yesterday, dragged down by financials as the US Treasury curve continued to flatten. The main focus fell on US tax reforms after reports that the US Senate is considering a 1-year corporate tax cut delay which weighed on USD.
    Meanwhile, crude oil stabilized after its recent rally and metals underperformed across the board whilst Asian equity markets are mixed as of midday local time today.
    In the US, the House of Representatives are scheduled to discuss a tax cut plan this week before a potential vote on a finalized bill as early as next week. The main elements of the bill could cause some market volatility, especially in credit markets.
    GBP had a quiet session yesterday and GBPUSD continues to trade in a 1.3060-1.3180 range. According to reports, PM May faces losing another minister over allegations that Priti Patel met with Israeli officials during a family holiday without consulting the prime minister.
    Focus for the remainder of the week will be on Brexit negotiations as pressure is starting to build on the UK government as some businesses are already going ahead with Brexit contingency plans.
    RUB underperformed yesterday as concerns around potential sanctions have reignited following indictments by the Special Counsel in its investigation of alleged Russian intervention in the US elections. The US Treasury will conclude a review of the possible effects of sanctioning Russian sovereign debt in February.

  3. #673
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 10 November 2017

    • US equities and USD fall on US tax cut concerns
    • No breakthrough in the new round of Brexit negotiations
    • UK industrial and manufacturing production in focus this morning

    US equities, US Treasury yields and USD fell yesterday following concerns about the Republican tax plan given differences between the Senate and the House versions of the plan.
    Risk assets generally underperformed due to spillover effects from US markets and Asian equity indices are mostly weaker as of midday local time.
    The Senate Financial Committee presented the highlights of its version of tax cuts yesterday and it contained marked differences from the House version. The Senate bill could delay the implementation of corporate tax cuts by one year and it would fully eliminate State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions which could be a major source of disagreement with House Republicans.
    The House and Senate versions of the bill need to be reconciled before it can become law hence differences at this stage could make it harder to implement the tax cuts.
    The new round of Brexit negotiations that began yesterday produced no breakthrough in talks and its impact on FX was limited. Reports later in the day indicated that PM May is ready to increase the Brexit payment to the EU in order to speed up negotiations.
    GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3000-1.3060 with resistance at 1.3180 and 1.3340. In EURGBP, support is found around 0.8730 with resistance at 0.8875.
    Barclays Research now expects the BoE to hike rates again in November 2018 and November 2019 which is in line with guidance from Governor Carney who has indicated that “two hikes over the next three years” seems appropriate.
    AUD came under some pressure overnight after the RBA revised its projections for inflation lower for 2018 and 2019 which likely reduces the probability of an RBA rate hike in H1-18.
    UK Industrial and manufacturing production will be in focus this morning and Barclays Research expects UK production to “…continue to enjoy gains as currency depreciation supports exports and sentiment surveys indicate continued strength in export orders…”.

  4. #674
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 November 2017

    • GBP declines after 40 Conservative MPs agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in PM May
    • UK Industrial Production beat expectations on Friday
    • A busy week for UK and US data, with speeches from central bank members also in focus

    Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 pulling further away from the 25-year high tested last week whilst Hong Kong stocks were firmer. The USD trimmed an advance that saw it gain against majority of its major counterparts. GBP declined as pressure mounts on UK Prime Minister Theresa May after a raft of political headlines and increasing criticism over Brexit discussions.
    GBP traded with a bid tone at the end of last week after UK Industrial Production beat expectations coming in at 0.7% m/m, vs. 0.3% m/m consensus. IP strength was primarily driven by manufacturing, which has benefited from the recent momentum in global growth as well as the continued boost from FX depreciation. However, this was partially offset by the broad-based weakness in construction, potentially a signal of Brexit-related uncertainty.
    GBP has come under pressure at the start of the week on the back of weekend reports that as many as 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May (Times), just 8 short of the total needed to trigger a leadership challenge.
    Also noted were reports of a leaked letter from Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to PM May addressing the Brexit transition, in addition to comments by Chief negotiator Michel Barnier around the EU preparing for a ‘No Deal’ scenario.
    Focus turns to a busy week of UK data including UK inflation, employment and retail sales. In the US, continued talks on tax legislation in the Congress will be closely watched, along with US inflation and growth data. Also in focus will be central banker speeches from ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Yellen, Bank of England Governor Carney and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda at a conference organised by the ECB on Tuesday. In particular, a hawkish stance from Bank of England Governor Carney could prompt a repricing of the Bank Rate expectations
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000-1.3060, with resistance at 1.3225 and 1.3340. EURGBP continues to trade between 0.8730-0.8935.

  5. #675
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 14 November 2017

    • Equities mixed and USD supported by a continuation of US tax cut efforts
    • GBP stable ahead of October CPI print this morning
    • Focus today on the ECB central bank policy panel

    Equities had a mixed day yesterday with European indices printing losses whilst US markets registered marginal gains. The USD and US Treasury yields were supported by a continuation of Republican tax cut efforts and Asian markets were largely unchanged as of midday local time today.
    Kevin Brady, House Way and Means committee chairman, said that he is confident that the tax bill will pass in the House according to Bloomberg but he insisted that keeping some of the state and local tax deductions is a priority for the House, in contrast to the Senate proposal.
    The House is targeting a vote on the tax bill before Thanksgiving (23-Nov) whilst the Senate is aiming for early December.
    In the UK, the government conceded to demands to allow a full vote on the final Brexit deal in Parliament ahead of key discussions regarding the Withdrawal bill this week. With only a small majority in Parliament, the British government will face an immense challenge and will most likely have to rely on crossparty goodwill to get the Brexit deal approved in Q1 2019.
    This morning, focus will be on the inflation print and Barclays Research expects “…headline and core inflation to move sideways in October…”.
    Focus today will fall on central bank leaders Draghi, Yellen, Carney and Kuorda who are scheduled to speak at a policy panel organized by the ECB today at 10.00 London time.
    Barclays Research expects “…a hawkish stance from Carney to prompt a repricing of BoE Bank Rate expectations and support GBP this week…”.
    As for the Yellen, a December Fed rate hike is almost fully priced in but the pricing of the bank’s interest rate path is relatively benign. Therefore, any constructive remarks by Yellen could place upward pressure on short-term interest rates and USD.

  6. #676
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 15 November 2017

    • Risk assets decline, EUR gains across the board
    • UK inflation surprises to the downside
    • Focus today on the UK employment report and US inflation

    The weakness in risk assets extended into another session, with global equities extending declines in Europe and Asia. In FX, EURUSD rallied above 1.1800 with the fixed income move acting as the initial catalyst and aided further by robust Euro Area data. Meanwhile, the ECB’s conference on central bank communications failed to provide any market-moving headlines.
    Our traders think the rally in EURUSD was attributed to a structural move - assisted by strong Euro Area GDP data - given the lack of retracement and consistent EUR demand seen from a range of client bases. We see EURUSD support at 1.1737 (100dma) ahead of 1.1660 and 1.1550, whilst resistance is at 1.1835-80 ahead of 1.2000 and 1.2100.
    The flash reading of Q3 GDP in Germany pointed to growth of 0.8% q/q vs. consensus forecast of 0.6%. In Italy, GDP expanded 0.5% q/q in Q3, in line with consensus and our economists.
    Meanwhile in the UK, inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% y/y (headline CPI) vs. consensus expectations of 3.1%y/y, which is an early challenge to the Bank of England’s recent hawkishness.
    Following the print, GBP came under pressure trading lower across the board but the sell off was limited. GBPUSD continues to trade broadly within the 1.3000-1.3300 range. Meanwhile, EURGBP trades in line with the broader EUR bid tone, with short term support at 0.8935 and resistance at 0.9025.
    Focus today is on a busy day of data. This morning, we look to UK employment data, where we are slightly above consensus in expecting Average Weekly Earnings to remain at 2.2% 3m/y as unemployment remains at 4.3%. This afternoon, attention turns to US CPI.
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 11-15-2017 at 07:14 PM.

  7. #677
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 16 November 2017

    • US inflation printed in line with expectations and Retail Sales surprised to the upside
    • UK employment report was mixed
    • Focus today on UK Retail Sales, Euro Area inflation and the US tax reform bill

    European equity futures gained marginally after Asian equities rebounded after four days of declines. Oil steadied near $55 a barrel and gold eased for a second day. In FX, the USD remained under pressure as US fixed income rallied, with UST yields rallying c.5bp.
    September’s UK employment report was mixed yesterday. Headline ILO unemployment rate for September printed at 4.3%, stable since July. The report showed slowing employment growth (second negative print in a row of -59k 3m/3m) reversing some of the strength seen earlier this year. Meanwhile, an absence of upside pay momentum continued with average weekly earnings printing at 2.2%, only 0.1pp higher than their six-month average, contrasting with the current strength in inflation.
    GBP initially declined following the report, but overall markets reaction was limited as the report was interpreted by markets as a non-event. Instead, price action remains EUR and USD driven in the short term, with levels being held in both GBPUSD (1.3000-1.3340) and EURGBP (0.8730-0.9050).
    Focus turns to UK retail sales data which are due today. Beyond data, our traders think GBP is likely to be driven primarily by Brexit and the December talks in the coming months.
    In the US, Headline CPI increased a modest 0.1% m/m and core inflation accelerated to 0.2% m/m in October. Meanwhile, US Retail Sales were stronger than expected in October printing at 0.2% m/m in October, vs. 0.0% consensus expectations.
    Looking to the day ahead, the US House of Representatives aims to vote on its version of the tax reform bill today. Meanwhile the Senate Finance Committee is expected to vote on its markup of the bill this week, with a full Senate vote expected after the week-long Thanksgiving recess.

  8. #678
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 17 November 2017

    • US equities rally on strong earnings and House tax bill approval
    • USD fell across the board overnight
    • Davis tells EU negotiators not to jeopardize prosperity for political gains

    US equity markets finished the day in the green yesterday boosted by stronger than expected earnings from a number of major companies including Walmart and the passing of the Republican tax bill in the House of Representatives later in the evening.
    USD held steady throughout most of the day but came under pressure overnight and DXY fell c.0.4% with some citing news that Special Council Mueller’s subpoenaed Trump’s campaign for Russia-related documents in mid-October.
    The House tax bill passed as was widely expected and focus will now shift to the Senate version of the tax bill with a vote expected in the week after Thanksgiving. The Senate tax plan differs from the House version on a number of points which could complicate reconciliation.
    GBP traded in a relatively tight range against USD in yesterday’s session and a small beat in UK retail sales (actual: -0.3% y/y vs. consensus: -0.4% y/y) had little impact in FX.
    David Davis warned EU negotiators not to put politics ahead of prosperity at an economic conference in Berlin yesterday and when asked about the payment to be made to the EU he said that it would be another few weeks before he would answer that.
    GBPUSD has opened higher this morning mainly on the back of overnight USD weakness. Support remains around 1.3000-1.3060 with resistance at 1.3340. In EURGBP, support comes in at 0.8730 with resistance at 0.9050.
    India’s sovereign credit rating was upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3 by Moody’s today which is likely to reinforce INR stability and outperformance among EM currencies.

 

 
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