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  1. #731
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 15 February 2018

    No Love For The Dollar
    The US dollar has been a dog for more than a year but the trade on Valentine's Day showed just how unloved it is. The dollar was a major laggard despite strong inflation data while commodity currencies soared. Australian jobs numbers are up next. A 2nd Aussie trade has been issued today to gear up for Aussie jobs figures due at 19:30 ET, 00:30 GMT/London, one of the trades is long AUD other is short AUD with the idea that both will move towards target over time based on the relationship between the cross currency relationship. Gold and silver were the stars of the day. Here is our reasoning 20 mins prior the release of US CPI & retail sales on why gold should rally regardless of the outcome.
    All eyes were on US inflation numbers Wednesday as worries about inflation derailing corporate earnings and growth continue to circulate. The worst happened as CPI rose 0.5% m/m compared to +0.3% expected. Core numbers were equally hot.
    The dollar shot higher on the headlines in 50-80 pip moves across the board but the highs were within moments. From there the US dollar embarked on an epic reversal that included a rally in cable to 1.40 from 1.3800 and in the euro to 1.2455 from 1.2275.

  2. #732
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 16 February 2018

    • Japanese equities and JPY gained after Kuroda is reappointed as Bank of Japan chief
    • USD remains soft whilst ZAR extends rally ahead of Ramaphosa’s state-of-the-nation address
    • Bank of Indonesia kept policy on hold whilst the Central Bank of Egypt and BSP cut rates

    Global equities extended a rally in Asia with Japan stocks gaining despite the JPY strengthening to its strongest level in 15 months, but trading was muted in Asia due to the Lunar New Year closing trading in Hong Kong, China and South Korea. USDJPY traded through 106.00 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated Haruhiko Kuroda to lead the Bank of Japan for another five-year term.
    Elsewhere 10y UST yields stayed above 2.9% and the USD remained under pressure, with EURUSD making new 3 year highs. Our traders see EURUSD resistance at 1.2555 and 1.2800 whilst support remains at 1.2500 and 1.2450.
    In UK politics, reports suggested that Britain’s government is ready to push for a mutual recognition system to regulate financial services after it leaves the EU in order to preserve the City of London’s access to the bloc (FT). Focus now turns to UK retail sales data (today) and Prime Minister Theresa May (tomorrow) who speaks in Munich on the theme of ‘Security cooperation post-Brexit’.
    GBPUSD continued to gain on a softer USD with the pair trading through 1.4000 yesterday. Our traders see next resistance at 1.4150 and 1.4275, with support at 1.4025 and 1.3980.
    In South Africa, local assets continued to outperform with USDZAR falling below 11.60 this morning to new three year lows after Zuma’s resignation. Focus turns to the state-of-the-nation address by the new president Cyril Ramaphosa, scheduled for 9pm GMT today.
    In EM, the Indonesian central bank kept policy on hold as expected, keeping its 7d reverse repo rate at 4.25%, in line with consensus. In the Philippines, the BSP cut the RRR by 1%, the first step in a medium term process of adjusting the RRR to the bank’s interest rate corridor framework. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100bp.

  3. #733
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 February 2018

    • Global equities staged a recovery last week further to their worst selloff in two years
    • Inflation data as well as FOMC, ECB, RBA, Riksbank and Banxico policy minutes in focus this week
    • Quiet day today with markets in Hong Kong, China and the US closed

    Global equities staged a recovery last week further to their worst selloff in two years. This morning, Asian stock indices rallied, with the Topix index climbing the most in six weeks as the JPY rally faded and US equities capped their best week in five years.
    With equities recovering, the USD steadied last week with some underperformance against JPY in G10, and LatAm and EMEA in EM.
    In the UK, attention will likely fall on reaction to PM May’s recent speech on a new security treaty, as well as the employment report (Wednesday) and Q4 GDP print (Thursday). Barclays Research expect the employment report to remain largely unchanged and the unemployment rate to move sideways at 4.3% for the sixth consecutive month, and GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q.
    Our traders note that with the May BoE meeting now c. 75% priced for a rate hike, GBP could be a little more sensitive to data than in recent times. GBPUSD support at 1.3980 short term ahead of 1.3765 and resistance at 1.4150 and 1.4275.
    This week, inflation data in several countries and FOMC, ECB, RBA, Riksbank and Banxico policy minutes will be a focus. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will likely feel a little stale, as the January meeting occurred before the recent bout of volatility and the bi-partisan budget deal.
    We expect a quiet day ahead with markets in Hong Kong and China closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and in the US for Presidents’ Day.

  4. #734
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 20 February 2018

    Will Fed Help To Put A Floor Under The Dollar?
    We expect the FOMC to announce the start of its BS run-off, hang on the 2017/2018 rate projections (1-3) and potentially lower its neutral rate forecast. That would cause a flattening of the US yield curve. The front end of the US yield curve will in this scenario rise further as the market implied probability of a 2017 rate hike currently stands at 53%.
    Today's Fed policy assessment might be key for the dollar. The start of reducing the BS will probably give the dollar only limited additional interest rate support short-term. The new Fed dots will signal substantial additional rate rises to come. In theory this should be USD positive, but will the FX market believe the Fed more than it did until now?
    USD trading remained technical in nature yesterday as investors counted down to tomorrow's FOMC decision. Data were second tier and had little impact on trading. USD/JPY set a new ST top, but reversed gains later. EUR/USD traded close to mostly slightly below 1.20.
    Overnight, Asian equities are narrowly mixed after WS closing at again new record levels. Japan August trade data were stronger-than-expected, but doesn't change to broader picture going into tomorrow's BOJ policy announcement. The BOJ is largely expected to keep course, lagging the normalisation process in other major economies. This prospect weighs on the yen, especially if rates in the US or Europe would rise further. The overall picture for the dollar stays unchanged. USD/JPY holds in the mid 111 area, within reach of the ST correction top. The dollar continues to trade weak against the euro. EUR/USD tries to regain the 1.20 barrier. EUR/JPY trades near the highest levels since December 2015.

  5. #735
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 February 2018

    Gold In Holding Pattern Ahead Of Federal Reserve Minutes
    Gold is steady in the Wednesday session, following sharp losses on Tuesday. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1329.08, down 0.05% on the day. On the release front, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release the January minutes later in the day. Earlier, Existing Home Sales disappointed, dropping to 5.38 million. This was well short of the estimate of 5.61 million. On Thursday, the US will release unemployment claims.
    Gold prices remain under pressure, as the metal has lost 1.5% this week, erasing much of last week’s gains. Concerns that strong US numbers could stoke inflation and more rate hikes sparked the recent turbulence in global stock markets. This has triggered volatility in gold, as gold prices are sensitive to moves (or expected moves) in interest rates. The Fed is currently projecting three rate hikes this year, but if inflation continues to move upwards, many analysts are expecting that the Fed could press the rate trigger four, or even five times in 2018. Traders should be prepared for some movement from gold later in the North American session, as the minutes could provide some clues regarding future rate policy.
    It’s been a busy start for Jerome Powell, who has just commenced his stint as chair of the Federal Reserve. Strong US data in recent weeks has raised speculation that the Fed may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in 2018. Meanwhile, concern over higher inflation and more rate hikes sent the stock markets into a frenzy earlier in February. Powell sought to reassure the markets that the Fed was monitoring the situation, but it’s doubtful that the Fed can do much to prevent volatility in the markets.

  6. #736
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 23 February 2018

    Do Concerns about US Twin Deficits Justify the Dollar's Increasingly Bearish Outlook?
    As the US government looks to raise $258 billion in Treasury auctions this week, the risk from a ballooning US deficit is weighing on investors' minds as concerns grow about the sustainability of the worsening fiscal shortfall in the United States. The prospect of a burgeoning budget deficit comes at a time when the country's trade balance has also been deteriorating in recent months. More worryingly, it is occurring against the backdrop of an economy that is at a late stage in the business cycle with limited spare capacity left to absorb.
    These concerns, along with expectations that other central banks around the world will this year start catching up with the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy, have been weighing on the US dollar, even as the growth and inflation outlooks improve.
    As the US government looks to raise $258 billion in Treasury auctions this week, the risk from a ballooning US deficit is weighing on investors' minds as concerns grow about the sustainability of the worsening fiscal shortfall in the United States. The prospect of a burgeoning budget deficit comes at a time when the country's trade balance has also been deteriorating in recent months. More worryingly, it is occurring against the backdrop of an economy that is at a late stage in the business cycle with limited spare capacity left to absorb.
    These concerns, along with expectations that other central banks around the world will this year start catching up with the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy, have been weighing on the US dollar, even as the growth and inflation outlooks improve.

  7. #737
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 26 February 2018

    • Asian equity markets remain buoyant as the USD slides
    • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden says BoE may raise rates ‘sooner than expected’
    • Focus on Italy’s general elections, government formation in Germany and ongoing NAFTA negotiations

    Asian equities rose, extending a two-week global rally, after US stocks posted strong gains late on Friday and UST yields retreated below 2.90%. The USD slipped against most major currencies as markets focus returns to US monetary policy with two appearances this week from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, beginning with his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony tomorrow afternoon where he will set out Fed thoughts on US rates for the year ahead .
    Elsewhere, JPY firmed (vs. USD) as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank has no plan to overhaul its current form of easing.
    Over the weekend, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that they might need to raise interest rates somewhat sooner than expected if wage growth picks up early this year (Sunday Times). Markets now turn to Deputy Governor Cunliffe who speaks this evening at 18:00 ahead of Prime Minister May’s speech on Friday, where she is to outline plan for UK/EU future partnership.
    A number of event risks in the coming week could have an impact on broader market risk appetite, including elections in Italy (Sunday), government formation in Germany, ongoing NAFTA negotiations (due to run from 25 February to 5 March) and concerns about the sustainability of growth in China.
    In our view, EUR faces downside risks this week in the run-up to elections in Italy, where polls indicate that the euroskeptic Five Star Movement lead in the polls (27%). M5S previously called for a referendum on Italy leaving the euro area, although the party has since softened its stance, with its leader commenting that that he does not “want to consider that last resort” in February.
    A more immediate EUR effect could come from Germany’s SPD party vote on whether to join Angela Merkel’s grand coalition. Rejection of the coalition portends downside risks to EUR over days or weeks on the reassessment of long-term EU prospects.
    Our traders see EURUSD support at 1.2250 and 1.2200 whilst resistance is at 1.2360 ahead of 1.2435. EURGBP resistance remains around the 0.8800 area with support at 0.8730 and 0.8685.

  8. #738
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 27 February 2018

    slow start on Global core bond markets
    Global core bond markets took a slow start to the trading week, eking out small gains in line with last week. US Treasuries slightly outperform Bunds. The Bund is close to 159.75 resistance (which corresponds with 0.62% in the 10y German yield), but a test didn't occur. The eco calendar couldn't inspire trading. St. Louis Fed Bullard kept his role as one of the most dovish members on the FOMC board. Inflation readings (EMU and US) and Fed chair Powell's testimony before Congress are keeping many investors sidelined. US yields decline by 1.2 bps (2-yr) to 2.7 bps (10-yr) at the time of writing. The German yield curve bull flattens with yields 0.1 bp (2-yr) to 2.2 bps (30-yr) lower. 10-yr yield spread changes versus Germany are nearly unchanged with Italy (-5 bps), Spain (-4 bps) and Portugal (-3 bps) outperforming. Next weekend's Italian election, which risks producing a political stalemate; doesn't seem to bother investors. The Kingdom of Belgium launched its debut green OLO via syndication. The dollar started the week on a soft footing in Asia and early in European dealings this morning. There was no high profile news to explain the move. A positive risk/equity sentiment coincided with USD weakness as was often the case of late. Interest rate differentials narrowed slightly against the dollar/in favor of the euro, but we doubt that this was a factor. Whatever, dollar softness eased/was reversed during the afternoon session, despite soft comments from Fed's Bullard. FX Markets are looking forward to tomorrow's hearing of Fed Chairman Powell on the Hill tomorrow. There are also plenty of (EMU and US) eco data later this week. Markets apparently don't want to be too much short dollar going into these events. USD/JPY rebounded back to the high 107 area., EUR/USD reversed this morning's gains and trades again in the low 1.23 area, awaiting the events to come.

  9. #739
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 28 February 2018

    • Global equities extend sell-off whilst the USD gains
    • New Fed Chair Powell’s comments spur speculation of faster US rate hikes
    • European Union due to publish a draft Brexit treaty today

    Asian equity markets followed their US counterparts lower after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spurred speculation of faster US rate hikes. Weaker-than-expected data from China and Japan added to the negative sentiment, as China’s official manufacturing gauge fell the most in five years in February, and Japanese factory output and retail sales declined.
    In FX, JPY strengthened after the Bank of Japan reduced longer-dated bond purchases whilst the USD held gains and 10y UST yields climbed 4bp on Powell’s hawkish tone.
    Markets interpreted Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress as hawkish as he opened the door to four Fed rate hikes this year. He commented that “the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis”, highlighting the difficultly in balancing stimulus to an economy with an increasingly bullish outlook with a stationary median fed path. As opposed to this tension being resolved with the Fed tolerating higher than target inflation, Barclays Research thinks the Fed will adjust towards four hikes this year whereas markets are currently pricing three.
    Powell’s hawkish rhetoric drove EURUSD lower through 1.2260 support yesterday as the USD traded bid across the board, aided by potential month-end USD demand. GBP traded heavily yesterday, with GBPUSD trading lower on the broader USD sentiment, whilst EURGBP bounced back from below 0.8800 towards short term resistance at 0.8850.
    In UK data, February GfK Consumer Confidence declined to -10 in February (after -9 in January) driven by general and personal expectations as well as lower major purchasing intentions.
    Focus on the European Union today who will publish a draft Brexit treaty ahead of UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech (Friday) on Britain’s relationship with the European Union.

  10. #740
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 1 March 2018

    • Dollar still on the move to the upside
    • Gold under pressure thanks to new Fed chairman
    • US Crude Oil inventory data pushed the WTI lower

    The dollar index extends its bullish gains making five week highs, boosted by an upbeat assessment of the US economy from the FED’s new chairman. The lower than expected second estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter was not enough to dent the dollar’s rally, indicating that traders may be speculating four FED interest rate rises this year instead of three. Further helping the dollar was a weaker euro that fell to 6-week lows after inflation slowed to its lowest level in 14 months. Having said this, perhaps political developments and Sunday’s Italian election may be the reason behind traders’ scepticism of the euro. GBP sell of worsened following lower than anticipated GDP figures.
    Despite another red day for US equities, a stronger dollar was yet again the dominant force in determining price action for the precious metal. Gold continues to slide as traders speculate that the FED’s new chairman may be more hawkish than Yellen.
    Oil dives 2.2% after US crude stockpiles rise by 3 million barrels compared with analyst expectations for a build of 2.1 million barrels. However, if producers abide to further OPEC output cuts and with the upcoming Aramco IPO, there may still be more ground for the bulls to play with in the oil market.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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