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  1. #861
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Aug 2018

    • US equities fell yesterday after Sino-US trade talks ended without much progress
    • GBPUSD dropped after Raab released ‘no deal’ Brexit reports
    • Focus on Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at 15:00


    US equities ended the day lower yesterday after Sino-US trade talks were reported to have ended without much progress (Bloomberg). Asian stocks recovered somewhat overnight and the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rose ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15.00 today
    Powell speech is on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” and Barclays Research expect it to “to provide guidance on how the Fed is incorporating the emerging contagion into its reaction function”
    GBPUSD dropped yesterday after Brexit Secretary Raab released a report about the potential effects of a collapse in Brexit negotiations covering different sectors of the economy (Bloomberg)
    Nonetheless, Barclays Research “believe the Article 50 negotiation process is on track and see the recent increase in 'No-Deal' rhetoric as tactical
    In data, euro-area “flash” PMIs came in slightly below estimates, and while still firmly expansionary also suggest that growth is consolidating amid global trade worries. However, EURUSD was mainly driven by the broader USD sentiment, and markets will likely focus on Jackson Hole today
    Elsewhere, AUDUSD gained by c.0.5% overnight after the Treasurer Morrison won the leadership ballot and replaced Turnbull as Liberal party leader and prime minister-designate
    With regards to central bank policy, Barclays Research pushed back their RBA rate hike forecast to 2020, and now expect two rate hikes in H1-20 on back of low wage growth, subdued CPI inflation and falling house prices

  2. #862
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 Aug2018

    • Euro-Zone’s Consumer Confidence Dipped To A 15-Month Low Level In August
    • Manufacturing Activity Cooled To A 21-Month Low
    • the flash services PMI advanced to a level of 55.2 in August

    On the data front, the Euro-zone’s preliminary consumer confidence index dropped to a 15-month low level of -1.9 in August, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of -0.7. The index had recorded a level of -0.6 in the prior month. Moreover, the region’s flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slid to a level of 54.6 in August, marking its 21-month low level and defying market expectations for an advance to a level of 55.2. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 55.1. On the contrary, the nation’s preliminary services PMI expanded to 54.4 in August, in line with market expectations and after recording a reading of 54.2 in the preceding month.

  3. #863
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 Aug 2018

    • Global equities rallied yesterday on bilateral US-Mexico NAFTA deal
    • GBPUSD is likely to continue to be driven by Brexit developments this week
    • EURUSD stronger but investors are concerned about Italy’s rating review on 31st August


    Global equities rallied yesterday after the US and Mexico agreed on a bilateral NAFTA deal and expectations rose that Canada may sign up to the deal (Reuters). In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index dropped while MXN and CAD gained on back of the news
    Sterling came under pressure last week after the UK Government published 24 sectoral papers to evaluate the impact of a “no-deal” Brexit. GBPUSD recovered some of its losses during the UK’s bank holiday yesterday, however Sterling continued to underperform vs EUR
    This week, GBPUSD will likely continue to be driven by Brexit discussions and broad USD sentiment, amid no major data releases
    EURUSD continued to rise yesterday however could not break above 1.1700 as markets remain concerned about the upcoming Italian rating review by Fitch on 31st August
    TRY remained under pressure yesterday as locals returned from their week long holiday and Turkish Finance Minister, Albayrak warned of potential destabilisation effects of US trade sanctions on the Middle East (Reuters)

  4. #864
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 Aug 2018



    • US equities continued to gain broadly on optimism over US-Mexico trade deal
    • GBP under pressure on Brexit timeline concerns
    • EUR fell overnight as Italy reportedly seeks another round of QE


    US equities closed marginally higher yesterday amid optimism over the US-Mexico trade deal, but Asian shares could not hold the initial gains overnight. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded higher overnight, reversing yesterday’s losses
    USDCAD fell yesterday on reports Canada has rejoined NAFTA talks and may make some concessions to the US on the country’s dairy market (Bloomberg)
    The announcement of a bilateral US-Mexico deal represents progress, but Barclays Research warns that “it should not be interpreted as a deal to reform NAFTA (…) it could be very challenging to wrap up a deal to reform NAFTA before the US midterm elections, or even year-end”
    GBPUSD closed the day lower, coming under pressure on reported tensions between PM May and Chancellor Hammond (The Times). Further negative sentiment was created by reports suggesting Brexit negotiations may continue until November (Bloomberg
    EURUSD lost most of yesterday’s gains overnight after reports that Italy is seeking a new round of ECB bond-purchases to avoid a rating downgrade (Bloomberg). Headline risks remains, but focus will also be on USD GDP data at 13.30 BST today

  5. #865
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 Aug 2018

    • US and European equities gained on NAFTA optimism
    • GBPUSD rallied on positive Brexit comments
    • Focus is on Italy’s credit rating review tomorrow


    US and European equities closed yesterday in the green after the US and Canada expressed optimism with regards to meeting the NAFTA negotiations deadline on Friday (Reuters). However, Asian shares lost overnight, after US President Trump blamed China of undermining efforts to reach a solution with North Korea regarding its nuclear weapons
    MXN and CAD gained vs the USD on back of the positive NAFTA news
    GBPUSD rallied above 1.3000 yesterday after EU’s Barnier commented that the EU is willing to offer “a partnership with Britain such as has never been with any other country” (Bloomberg). Further headlines will be watched closely and will likely continue to drive sterling amid a light day of data
    The USD Bloomberg Spot Index was little changed yesterday. In data, US Q2 GDP was revised higher to 4.2% in the second estimate, driven by net exports and fixed investments
    EURUSD traded in a relatively tight range yesterday with no materially new information out. Focus remains on Fitch’s credit rating review of Italy on Friday
    Elsewhere, economic data in Australia (building approval and capital expenditure) and New Zealand (business confidence) disappointed, sending AUD and NZD lower

  6. #866
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 Aug 2018

    • Global equities lower on concerns about Sino-US trade tensions
    • EM under renewed pressure prompting significant IDR and INR underperformance
    • Focus on Fitch’s credit rating review of Italy this evening


    US equities traded lower yesterday across the board and their Asian counterparts came under pressure overnight on reports that the US could impose further $200bn of tariffs on Chinese imports (Bloomberg). In FX, the negative risk sentiment prompted the USD Bloomberg Spot Index to rise throughout yesterday’s session
    Pressure on EM has returned in spite of the recent supportive NAFTA headlines. Yesterday saw ARS extend its losses despite the central bank’s emergency interest rate hike to 60%. In Asia, INR and IDR underperformed significantly, mainly driven by general EM sentiment rather than specific domestic headlines
    USDTRY also traded higher yesterday after the Turkish Central Bank Deputy Governor reportedly resigned from his office (Bloomberg) although the gains have been reversed this morning
    GBPUSD held Wednesday’s gains, continuing to trade around the 1.3000 level. In data, UK consumer confidence rebounded in August, rising 3 points to -7. While this improvement originated from a number of categories, the biggest rise was seen in plans to save
    EURUSD dropped yesterday amid a general risk-driven rally in USD and concerns over Fitch’s credit rating review of Italy this evening. This morning’s hawkish comments by ECB’s Nowotny (Bloomberg) saw a short-lived spike in EURUSD but focus will likely turn back to Italy today

  7. #867
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 Sep 2018

    • Asian equities remained under pressure on concerns over the Sino-US trade war
    • GBPUSD reversed most of last week’s gains due to negative Brexit commentary
    • NAFTA negotiations with Canada reached an impasse


    US equities closed with mixed performances on Friday, while their Asian counterparts dropped further amid ongoing concerns over further escalation of the Sino-US trade war and continued pressure on emerging markets
    In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rallied driven by Friday’s general risk sentiment, especially against vulnerable EM currencies. Today the US is closed due to local holidays
    Last week GBPUSD gained strong support from EU Chief Negotiator Barnier’s comment that the EU may offer an “unprecedented partnership” to the UK. However, most of the gains were reversed on Friday after the meeting between UK Brexit Secretary Rabb and Barnier did not lead to any conclusive statements
    Weekend headlines of EU’s Barnier’s criticism to some key parts of PM May’s proposal for a future deal (BBC) worsened the sentiment around GBP overnight. Further pressure came from headlines of PM May ruling out a second referendum (Bloomberg)
    Parliament returns from summer recess on Tuesday and resumes Brexit withdrawal bill discussions which will likely lead to further headline risk
    EURUSD fell most of Friday ahead of Italy’s credit rating review by Fitch. The announcement of a downgrade of Italy’s credit outlook to negative came in one hour before the New York close and saw limited price action so far
    NAFTA negotiations with Canada have not yielded a solution yet, with US President Trump notifying Congress that he intended to sign a bilateral deal with Mexico only (Reuters)
    USDCAD traded higher on back of the news and will likely remain subject to changes in sentiment due to any new developments

  8. #868
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 Sep 2018

    • Geopolitical tensions and emerging markets weakness weighed on equities
    • GBPUSD underperformed on negative Brexit-sentiment and disappointing data
    • AUDUSD saw mild relief rally on back of RBA statement


    Asian and European equities performed mixed yesterday amid ongoing concerns over geopolitical trade tensions and prevailing emerging markets weakness. The US was closed for Labour Day and the USD Bloomberg Spot Index was fairly unchanged during the session
    ARS dropped by a c.3% vs the USD further after the Argentinean Government announced austerity measures including new export taxes and cuts to government spending (Reuters)
    GBPUSD underperformed yesterday on the back of the weekend’s negative Brexit-related headlines. Disappointing UK Manufacturing PMI data for August further weighed on Sterling. Given the Labour Day in the US, thin market liquidity perhaps exaggerated GBP underperformance
    Today’s focus will be on the Bank of England’s testimony to lawmakers with Carney’s speech at 13.15 and Parliament’s return from summer recess
    The RBA kept policy rates unchanged at 1.5% as expected. AUDUSD saw a mild relief rally as the statement highlighted the recent labour market strength and the slight pick-up in wage growth
    In Turkey, August CPI and PPI inflation accelerated to a 15-year high at 17.9% y/y and 32.1%, respectively, prompting a volatile session in USDTRY which closed the day slightly higher
    Barclays Research expect the CBT to hike all policy rates by 300bp on 13th September

  9. #869
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 Sep 2018

    • Asian stocks fall on global trade tensions
    • Emerging market currencies come under pressure
    • South Africa slumps into recession for the first time since 2009


    Overnight, Asian stocks fell as global trade tensions remained in focus and emerging market weakness persisted
    The Shanghai Composite Index retreated c.1%, on expectations the US will impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this month, adding to pressure on China's cooling economy. Indonesian stocks also fell as the rupiah hovered around its lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis in 1998
    Emerging market currencies faced the heaviest fall in almost a month yesterday, with South Africa’s rand one of the worst performers. The rand dropped c. 2.8% against the dollar, after data showed the country’s economy slumped into a recession in the second quarter for the first time since 2009
    Mexico’s peso fell c.1% amid persistent concern over the trade agreement it struck with the US, and Argentina’s peso was off c. 2.3% amid concerns its austerity plans will not be sufficient to stem the currency crisis
    Elsewhere, the Australian dollar squeezed higher following stronger-than-expected domestic second quarter GDP data. Once again however, the AUDUSD rally was met with supply ahead of 0.7240 resistance. The US dollar remained well bid as US ISM manufacturing rose to a fourteen-year high in August, led by production and orders.

  10. #870
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 Sep 2018

    • Asian equities lower amid Sino-US trade tensions
    • GBP had a volatile session yesterday amid conflicting Brexit headlines
    • Emerging markets remain under pressure, with ZAR extending its losses


    Asian equities dropped overnight, with the regional benchmark heading for the lowest close in a year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded lower for a sixth straight session on concerns of escalating trade tensions between the US and China
    GBPUSD had a tumultuous day of trading yesterday after reports that the British and German governments had abandoned key Brexit demands, potentially easing the path for the UK to strike a deal with the EU (Bloomberg). This led to a spike in GBPUSD, however, the news was later rebuked, and GBPUSD reversed some of the gains
    Emerging markets fell further yesterday, with ZAR suffering further losses against the USD following Tuesday’s disappointing Q2 GDP print which confirmed South Africa had entered technical recession, raising the risk of a deterioration in South Africa’s ratings outlook. USDZAR retested the early August high of 15.70 yesterday as ongoing outflows continue to put pressure on ZAR
    MXN fell further, losing another 1% against the USD amid concerns over the NAFTA trade agreement
    The Riksbank left Swedish interest rates unchanged at this morning’s meeting and made no material amendments to the projected rate path

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