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  1. #761
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 04 April 2018

    Market News
    · While European equities saw a weak session yesterday, US stocks gained broadly despite US presidential criticism on Amazon which weighed on the tech sector. The 10y UST yield rose whilst the USD came under renewed pressure as US-China trade tensions continued to escalate
    o After China imposed of tariffs on 128 US products, the US provided details on 1,300 Chinese goods that could see a 25% tariff. Trade tensions heightened further as China’s Ministry of Commerce announced they would levy reciprocal tariffs
    · In data yesterday, UK manufacturing PMIs came in slightly better than expected at 55.1, but manufacturing is at its weakest in a year suggesting that underlying momentum has eased. Focus turns to construction PMI data this morning, which is likely to have a limited effect on GBP in our view
    o Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3980 and resistance at 1.4100 ahead of 1.4250. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8700 ahead 0.8665, and resistance lies at 0.8800
    · In Italy, President Mattarella starts his first round of government consultations today after the inconclusive result of March’s elections. Barclays Research expects that the negotiations “are likely to be difficult and could last several weeks”
    · Focus today is also on euro area flash inflation data, which we expect to increase to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% y/y, and the US ISM non-manufacturing index which we expect to improve slightly after manufacturing moderated in March

  2. #762
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 05 April 2018

    Asian and US equities gain broadly after initial selloff due to trade war escalation
    · Euro area inflation and US ISM non-manufacturing moderated in March
    · GBP came under pressure due to disappointing construction data



    Market News
    · Asian and US equities gained broadly overnight after an initial selloff triggered by China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on $50bn of US exports. Risk sentiment improved thereafter as the US indicated that it would negotiate on the tariffs which also supported a rally in USDJPY
    o Concerns on NAFTA negotiations have also eased as US President Trump indicated a softer stance to a car manufacturing deal, which supported gains in MXN and CAD
    · Euro area inflation for March was below expectations with core inflation at 1.0%. Data in the US also moderated as the ISM non-manufacturing index disappointed expectations with a print of 58.8 in March, although the levels remain in a healthy territory
    · GBPUSD saw a volatile session yesterday after a weaker-than-expected print in construction PMI prompted an initial selloff of the GBP which it later retraced. Today focus lies on the services PMI data this morning where Barclays Research expects a print of 54.5
    o Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3980-1.4015, while resistance lies at 1.4100 ahead of 1.4250-75. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8710 ahead of 0.8665, and resistance lies at 0.8800
    · Today’s the RBI meeting takes place at 10.00. Barclays Research expects them “…to keep policy on hold and to remain on hold throughout the rest of 2018”

  3. #763
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective 06 April 2018

    • Global equities rebounded yesterday but trade tensions weighed on futures overnight
    • PMI releases in the EU and the UK have come in below expectations
    • Today’s focus is on US nonfarm payrolls

    Global equities rebounded yesterday as concerns about a full-blown trade war eased. However, tensions escalated again after US President Trump asked his administration to consider further tariffs on Chinese imports which prompted a mixed response from Asian stocks and drove US and European equity futures lower overnight.
    In FX, the USD gained against its G10 peers ahead of US nonfarm payrolls and Fed Chair Powell’s speech this afternoon. The tariff headlines overnight prompted USDJPY to dip by as much as 0.4% but the pair retraced its initial losses quickly.
    PMI releases across the globe have come in below expectations and appear to have peaked, but remain at elevated levels. The euro area March final composite PMI was revised slightly downward from the flash estimate and fell to a 14-month low. In the UK, the effect of Brexit concerns seems to weigh on business sentiment sending services PMI to its lowest level since the EU referendum.
    GBPUSD came under pressure yesterday, mainly driven by generally strong demand for USD but the weaker-than-expected UK PMI print also dragged the pair lower.
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3965 ahead of 1.3880, and resistance at 1.4100. EURGBP continues to trade in a tight range, with support at 0.8710 ahead of 0.8665, and resistance at 0.8800.
    In India, the RBI kept rates unchanged as expected but stroke a dovish tone in its statement. Barclays Research expects “… monetary policy to remain largely data dependent; given our outlook for a benign CPI inflation, we believe the MPC will stay on hold during 2018”.
    Today’s focus is on the US March employment report and we forecast solid employment at 200k jobs gains, a decline of unemployment to 4.0% and a rise in average hourly earnings to 2.8% y/y.
    Barclays Research thinks that “concerns about anti-trade policies and regulatory concerns in the tech sector may subdue hiring relative to February.
    It should be noted that the March survey covers fewer weeks (four) than the February report.

  4. #764
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 09 April 2018

    • Asian equities start the week with a rally despite trade concerns
    • The USD dropped after Friday’s disappointing employment report
    • Focus on the US-China trade battle and central banks this week

    Asian equities rose overnight together with US stock futures despite ongoing concerns of an escalation in the US-China trade dispute. Positive headlines came from a confirmation that North Korean President Kim Jong Un is willing to negotiate with US President Trump
    The USD consolidated overnight after it dropped on Friday due to a disappointing employment report. The NZD outperformed all of its G10 peers on the back of speculation that the escalating trade tensions will not weigh on the economy
    The US-China trade dispute continued last week after President Trump sent a directive to the US Trade Representative to consider further tariffs of $100bn on Chinese exports. Whilst none of the measures are set to kick in yet, a retaliation from China is not unlikely and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech tomorrow will be followed closely by investors
    Barclays Research warns that the heightened risk of US-China trade-related tensions escalating means that “…there is an increasing risk of underperformance in trade- and risk-sensitive currencies, while likely benefiting safe havens…”
    The US employment report showed a slowdown in job creation as US payrolls rose by only 103k in March, well below expectations. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y), broadly in line with consensus forecasts and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%
    Looking to the week ahead, the key data in the US are PPI (Tuesday), CPI data and the FOMC minutes from the March meeting (Wednesday). The US Treasury also due to release its list of countries that practice potentially unfair currency practices as early as this week. In Europe, focus will be on the ECB meeting (Wednesday) and E19 Industrial Production (Thursday)

  5. #765
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 10 April 2018

    • US equities came under pressure after an FBI raid on Trump’s personal lawyer’s office
    • Chinese President’s speech eased trade tensions overnight
    • RUB extended losses on the back of US sanctions

    Global equity markets rose by c. 1.25% yesterday, but lost almost all their gains after news reports that the FBI raided the office of Trump’s longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen
    Risk sentiment improved overnight however after Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to lower import tariffs and increase imports to promote a more balanced current account in a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia. US Treasuries yields fell, safe haven currencies like JPY and CHF weakened whilst AUD and NZD rallied
    GBP traded with a bid tone throughout yesterday’s session and GBPUSD rallied on the back of improving risk sentiment and general USD weakness. With no key UK data to note today, focus is likely to fall on BoE’s Haldane’s speech at 10.30 today
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3965, with resistance at 1.4165 ahead of 1.4250-75 and 1.4350. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8865 and resistance at 0.8800
    According to Bloomberg reports, China is studying using a weaker currency as a tool in trade negotiations as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs imposed on its exports
    However, Barclays Research believes that this report should be taken with a grain of salt for a few reasons, including that Chinese officials “may worry that CNY depreciation could trigger capital outflows
    the US introduced new sanctions on Russian entities on Friday, which led to the biggest fall in Russian equities in four years, a 4% drop in the RUB and widening of Russian sovereign bond spreads by 25bp yesterday. RUB continued to tumble in early morning trading today taking its losses versus USD to 8.3% in the past four days
    barclays Research warns that the sanctions “… could have broader effects and moved to a more cautious stance on Russia…”

  6. #766
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 April 2018

    • Concerns of a US military attack in Syria weighed on risk assets overnight
    • GBPUSD continues to rise on broad-based USD weakness
    • Focus on US CPI and FOMC meeting minutes today


    Global equity markets generally rose yesterday on the back of easing US-China trade tensions after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s relatively conciliatory speech on Tuesday. However, risk assets came under pressure overnight on concerns of a possible US military action in Syria in light of the recent alleged chemical weapons attack
    In FX markets, G10 pairs traded in a relatively tight range whilst in EM, RUB and TRY continued to underperform driven by US sanctions on Russian entities and geo-political tensions
    GBPUSD continued to rise throughout yesterday’s session mainly driven by general USD weakness. Today’s focus is on UK industrial production at 9.30 which could induce some short-term volatility
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.4150 ahead of 1.3965, while resistance lies at 1.4250-75. EURGBP continues to trade within the range of 0.8695-0.8730 and within a wider range of 0.8665-0.8800
    Looking to the day ahead, the key data to look for is US CPI where Barclays Research expects a small decrease in headline CPI (2.3% y/y) and an increase in core inflation (2.1% y/y)
    The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will also be closely watched by investors and Barclays Research expects that "...comments about trade protectionism and views on the balance of risks to the outlook could garner market interest..."

  7. #767
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 April 2018

    • Concerns of a US military attack in Syria continued to weigh on risk asset
    • GBPUSD broadly unchanged despite disappointing UK data prints
    • Focus on ECB meeting minutes today


    Global equity markets fell yesterday due to heightened tensions in the Middle East after US President Trump threatened Russia with US military action in Syria. Risk assets underperformed and crude oil spiked to the highest level since 2014 on fears of supply disruptions
    GBPUSD closed yesterday’s session broadly unchanged despite a smaller-than-expected trade deficit, weaker-than-expected industrial production and underwhelming manufacturing and construction data
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD short-term technical resistance levels at 1.4220-50, and short-term support at 1.4160 ahead of 1.3965. In EURGBP, resistance lies at 0.8750 ahead of 0.8800, while support comes in at 0.8665-
    The Fed minutes struck a slightly hawkish tone but it was not sufficient to drive the USD higher. The minutes were broadly consistent with Barclays Research’s view “… that the committee could shift to a four-hike outlook this year in June if the economy evolves as expected…”
    The sharp sell-off in RUB since the start of the week (c. 7% vs the USD) retraced a bit during yesterday’s session and attention is now on the likely central bank response. Barclays Research does not think that “…the central bank will intervene in the FX market at this stage…” but “…the CBR will have to halt the easing cycle…” due to the strong FX pass-through to inflation
    Today the ECB’s minutes from the March meeting are released where Barclays Research expects “… more precise guidance on the interest policy path starting in April…”
    Barclays Research warns that “…there is a risk that they reveal a hawkish view, with the decision to drop the pledge to step up APP matched by a desire for faster deposit rate hikes…”

    [/JUSTIFY]

  8. #768
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 April 2018

    • Global equities rose yesterday as risk sentiment improved
    • GBPUSD rallied with no obvious catalyst
    • Euro area data surprised to the downside


    Global equity markets rose across the board during yesterday’s session as tensions in the Middle Eased improved. The calming of geo-political tensions allowed the USD to retrace some of this week’s losses and the price of oil steadied after having risen c. 7% this week. Risk sentiment further improved on headlines that US President Trump is considering to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership which prompted AUD to rally
    GBP rose during yesterday session with GBPUSD reaching 1.4247 but there were no significant UK or Brexit-related news. Our traders see GBPUSD 1.4245 as an initial resistance level and a break could open up a rally towards 1.4350. EURGBP broke through support around 0.8700 and fell to 0.86425 with the next support coming in at 0.8595, while resistance should lie at 0.8700 and 0.8810.
    The ECB’s minutes revealed few surprise but may be interpreted as slightly hawkish following the removal of the easing bias at the last meeting. Barclays Research thinks ”the ECB will err on the side of caution” and made slight downward revisions to its 2018 euro area growth forecast. Regarding monetary policy, Barclays Research pushed out its call for the end of ECB asset purchases from September 2018 until December 2018
    Euro area industrial production surprised to the downside yesterday, which was in line with the continued negative dynamics of business expectations observed in recent surveys. This suggests that the strong growth momentum from H2-17 is likely to have cooled down, and Barclays Research sees “… a downside risk to our euro area growth forecast of 0.5% q/q in Q1-18”
    Singapore’s MAS increased the slope of its SGD NEER policy band ”slightly”, which Barclays Research interprets ”as a 0.5% slope increase”. This reflects the central bank’s confidence about economic growth, although they also noted the risks of a US-China trade war

  9. #769
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 April 2018

    • The US, UK’s and France’s military attacks in Syria interpreted as one-off events
    • GBP maintains its bid tone despite the UK’s involvement in Syrian missile attacks
    • Focus this week on US retail sales (today), UK inflation (Wednesday) and UK retail sales (Thursday)


    Global equities came under pressure last week, with the source of volatility shifting from the US-China trade war to US-Russia tensions. Risk sentiment recovered overnight as this weekend’s strikes on Syria were interpreted as one-off events, driving oil lower
    US sanctions on Russia were the focus of investors’ attention last week. The unprecedented step to designate Rusal as a specially designated national (SDN) triggered material price falls in the Russian credit and the Russian government debt complex
    Despite the sharp rise in USDRUB, our economists do not expect the CBR to intervene in FX markets at this stage, but we do expect it to halt the easing cycle
    GBP has shown a muted reaction to the UK’s involvement in the missile attacks in Syria, with investors seemingly not concerned about major military escalation. GBPUSD gained throughout last week, reaching a high of 1.4297 (Bloomberg) on Friday and remaining around 1.4250 this morning
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.4145 with resistance at 1.4300 and ahead of 1.4350. In EURGBP, support lies at 0.8595, with resistance coming in at 0.8700 and 0.8810
    This week is busy in terms of domestic data prints and further headlines could come from the informal UK-EU negotiations that are due to begin again this week

  10. #770
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 April 2018

    • US equities rose yesterday as an escalation in the Middle East appears less likely
    • GBP rallies to new post-Brexit highs ahead of domestic data
    • Today’s focus on UK employment and wages and US Industrial Production


    US equities edged higher yesterday as concerns about an escalation in the Middle East abated which also prompted crude oil prices to fall and European equity futures to rise. In FX, the Bloomberg USD index dropped on headlines that US President Trump took to Twitter to accuse China and Russia of “playing the Currency Devaluation game” as the U.S. raises interest rates
    USDJPY fell below 107 overnight ahead of today’s meeting between US President Trump and Japan’s PM Abe, where discussions will likely cover trade relations and North Korea. RUB rebounded modestly yesterday as the US decided not to impose further sanctions on Russia which had been promised by the US ambassador over the weekend
    GBP rallied to new post-Brexit highs with GBPUSD reaching 1.4375 (Bloomberg) this morning. Markets are seemingly positive about today’s UK wage data and tomorrow’s CPI data which could affect expectations for the Bank of England’s May meeting where Barclays Research expects a 25bp hike
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support towards 1.4300 ahead of 1.4250/1.4245 while resistance comes in at 1.4500. EURGBP finds support at 0.8595 while resistance lies around 0.8668 ahead of 0.8700 and 0.8810. The Trump administration is set to nominate Richard Clarida as Fed Vice Chairman and Michelle Bowman as Board Governor. Barclays Research views the combination of Powell, Williams, and Clarida “as supportive of gradual rate hikes”
    US retail sales were slightly stronger than expected in March, with headline and core data coming in higher, signifying the first gain in retail sales in four months
    The RBA’s April minutes were slightly more positive than last month but could not prevent an initial sell off of AUD following lower-than-expected Chinese industrial production growth. However, AUDUSD retraced its initial losses and trades higher this morning
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 04-17-2018 at 01:35 PM. Reason: not able to fix the paragraph to edit

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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