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  1. #771
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 April 2018

    • Global equities rallied amid strong corporate earnings in the US
    • PBoC unexpectedly cut its reserve requirement ratio for banks to release liquidity
    • Today’s focus is on UK and EU inflation as well as the Bank of Canada meeting


    Global equities rallied across the board amid strong corporate earnings in the US. In FX, the Bloomberg USD index gained after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that Trump’s tweet on currency manipulation was a “warning shot” rather than a call for a weaker USD
    USDJPY has been rising during Asia’s trading session ahead of the press conference of US President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe this afternoon. GBP weakened slightly yesterday, but continues to trade around 1.4300, the strongest levels since the 2016 Brexit vote. Today’s focus is on UK inflation data at 9.30
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support towards the 1.4275/70 area ahead of 1.4145. Resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.4377 ahead of 1.4500. In EURGBP, support lies at 0.8620 and 0.8595 while short-term resistance is at 0.8670 ahead of 0.8700 and 0.8810
    The UK’s employment report was broadly in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% (versus 4.3% expected). Average Weekly Earnings printed 2.8% 3m/y, unchanged from the prior month, while core weekly earnings accelerated, supporting the case for a rate hike in May. The PBoC unexpectedly announced a 100bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks, effective 25th April. It will allow some banks to repay MLF lending and release additional liquidity of about CNY1300bn (PBoC)
    The Bank of Canada holds its meeting today and the market expects it to stay on hold. Barclays Research believes that “the bank remains data dependent but extremely cautious, as downside risks to the outlook remain: trade protectionism, slowing of the housing market, and the effect of previous interest rate hikes”

  2. #772
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 April 2018

    • Global equities continued to rally amid surging oil prices
    • UK and Euro zone inflation data was lower than expected in March
    • The Bank of Canada remains “cautious” on future rate hikes


    Global equities continued their rally throughout yesterday’s session, led by resource stocks which gained on rising oil prices. Crude oil jumped to new 3-year highs on reports that Saudi Arabia would be willing to let crude rise to $80 or $100 a barrel (Reuters). USDJPY continued its recent rally yesterday after US President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe agreed on starting talks on free trade relationships
    GBPUSD dropped by c.1% yesterday morning after UK March inflation data came in lower than expected at 2.5%, though sterling retraced some of its losses during the afternoon. The fall in inflation reflects a mixture of timing and weather effects, as well as the recent weakness in activity data. Nevertheless, Barclays Research does “not expect this to deter the BoE from hiking in May”
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.4145/ 1.3980 and resistance around 1.4350/75 ahead of 1.4377. In EURGBP, support lies in the 0.8690/ 0.8620 area while resistance comes in at 0.8735/40 ahead of 0.8810
    In the euro zone, inflation was also weaker than forecasted, which is mostly attributable to volatile components and Barclays Research leaves its outlook unchanged. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged as expected. BoC Governor Poloz stroke an upbeat tone but reiterated the need for caution on future rate adjustments. USDCAD traded c.0.8% higher after the announcement
    Turkey’s President Erdogan has called for early elections on 24th June. Barclays Research believes that this is “likely to increase the desire among politicians for a stable TRY, thus strengthening the case for a more decisive rate hike at the 25 April MPC meeting”

  3. #773
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 April 2018

    • GBP dropped sharply overnight on dovish comments by BoE’s Carney
    • UK retail sales came in weaker than expected
    • US and Asian equities fell yesterday amid surging UST yields


    GBP dropped sharply overnight after BoE’s Carney struck a dovish tone in an interview with the BBC, dampening expectations for a May rate hike. The governor’s comments followed weaker-than-forecast inflation data, a drop in retail sales and mixed labour-market figures this week. Carney commented that he didn’t want to be “too focused on the precise timing” of when rates might next rise and that it was a decision they “will take in early May, conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year." Ahead of the May MPC meeting, investors will be closely watching the remaining data (PMI, GDP and IP)
    Further downside pressure came from Brexit headlines suggesting that negotiations are currently far from a solution on the Irish border (Telegraph). Our traders look to 1.3970 and 1.3890 as the next support levels, while rallies towards 1.4100, 1.4145 and 1.4250 are likely to meet good resistance. In EURGBP, the next resistance comes in 0.8810 which had been a popular level to fade against before the previous move lower
    UK retail sales fell in March following unseasonably low temperatures. Barclays Research expects “this to lead to downside risks to the Q1 GDP advance release next week with data currently signalling 0.2% q/q”. US and Asian equities fell from Wednesday’s highs amid surging US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching the psychological 3% level. In FX, the rise in US yields prompted further USD buying leading the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to rise for a fourth day this week
    JPY continued to fall amid softening Japanese inflation which may support a continuation of BoJ stimulus for some time. Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate on hold at its April meeting as expected and Barclays Research sees “no room for further cuts in 2018”

  4. #774
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 April 2018

    • Last week brought more evidence that global activity and trade volumes have slowed
    • Sterling remains under pressure at the start of the week
    • This week focus will be on Euro area composite PMI (today), German IFO (Tues), ECB meeting (Thu) and US Q1 GDP (Fri)


    Developed stock markets ended the second half of the week with negative momentum, but given gains earlier in the week still finished 0.5-1% higher for the week. Flows into emerging markets continued to hold up.
    Last week brought more evidence that global activity and trade volumes have slowed, but markets were resilient. The key moves were in the bond market, where 10y bunds rose by 8bp and where the front of the US Treasury curve backed up by almost 10bp on declining risk aversion and higher inflation expectations, partly driven by higher oil prices
    The slowdown reflected in global activity indicators is most clear in Europe, where recent weaker readings on European industrial production and soft manufacturing and services PMIs led us to lower our forecast for euro area growth in Q1 18 to 1.6% q/q saar (from 2.1% previously)
    Focus today on Euro zone PMIs, which will be watched closely following the slowing in growth momentum over recent releases
    EURUSD came under pressure into the end of last week in line with the broader bid tone for USD as we broke through support 1.2300 down to 1.2250. The ECB meeting on Thursday is likely to be a non event, with no material changes in forward guidance expected. The market will be watching for any commentary regarding the recent slowing in data
    Sterling remains under pressure at the start of this week, following a volatile week last week on the back of Carney’s dovish comments. Reports on Friday that European Union officials are set to reject a potential UK solution to the crucial issue of what happens to the Irish border after Brexit (Bloomberg) is further weighing on the currency

  5. #775
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 April 2018

    • US equities closed slightly lower yesterday amid firmer US 10y Treasury yields
    • The greenback rallied to nearly 3-month highs supported by higher rates
    • GBP remains under pressure ahead of the House of Common’s vote on the Custom’s union


    US equities closed slightly lower yesterday on firmer US yields, while Asian stocks retraced from near two-week lows overnight. The main focus was on the surging US 10-year Treasury yields which were driven higher by a rally in oil prices and the subsequent increase in inflation expectations, now approaching the psychologically level of 3% again
    The spike in oil prices towards $69/ barrel continues to be driven by tensions in the Middle East and falling US crude stockpiles
    In FX, the USD continued to strengthen throughout yesterday’s session supported by higher rates, with the USD Bloomberg Spot Index reaching a near 3-month high. At the same time, the 60-day correlation between the USD index and benchmark Treasury 10-year yields has now turned positive again, after dipping into negative territory during the past few months
    EM high-yielders, JPY and AUD came most under pressure versus the USD as a result of the greenback’s rally
    GBPUSD continued to sell off yesterday, mainly due to broad-based USD strength, but also due to caution relating to Thursday’s House of Commons’ vote on whether the UK should be in a Customs union following the Government’s defeat last week in the House of Lords. While only a symbolic motion and non-binding, the vote could put increased pressure on the Government and stoke internal conflicts in the Conservative Party
    Euro area April “flash” PMIs printed broadly in line with our above consensus forecast at 55.2, unchanged from the March reading. Current euro area PMI levels are high, and if they remain stable for the rest of Q2, would be consistent with Barclays Research’s 0.6% q/q GDP growth forecast

  6. #776
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 April 2018

    • Global equities sell off after US 10-year Treasury yields rise above 3%
    • GBP remains under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s vote in the House of Commons on the Customs Union
    • Today’s focus is on Turkey’s CBT meeting


    Global equities sold off yesterday after US 10-year Treasury yields rose, trading above 3% this morning, the highest level since 2014. US stocks closed sharply lower amid the concerns over US yields. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded higher overnight approaching the 3-month high set on Tuesday
    AUD and NZD were the notable underperformers yesterday, mainly driven by broad-based USD strength and thin trading as local markets were closed for a public holiday
    Crude oil prices dropped yesterday after US President Trump said that the US and France could soon reach an agreement to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal
    GBP retraced some of Monday’s losses yesterday, with GBPUSD getting close to 1.40 overnight. However, GBPUSD has dropped back below 1.3940 this morning on no apparent headlines. In a quiet day of data today, the pair will likely be driven by USD momentum ahead of tomorrow’s symbolic vote in the House of Commons on the Customs union
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3920 ahead of 1.3890 and 1.3700, while resistance comes in at 1.4000 ahead of the 1.4145-75 area. EURGBP finds support at 0.8735 ahead of 0.8690 and 0.8625, while resistance lies at 0.8800
    In data, UK March Public Finances showed that the budget execution is ahead of its targets at the end of FY-17, partly driven by the strong surplus seen in January on healthy self-assessment revenues. Further improvement is likely to be limited, and Barclays Research “expects the undershoot to be spent in the next fiscal year”
    In Turkey, the CBT’s meeting is in focus today where Barclays Research expects the MPC to hike the LLW O/N lending rate by 100bp. This could potentially be accompanied by hikes in other policy rates if the bank chooses to deliver a more decisively hawkish message to the market. That said, Barclays Research would expect the magnitude of any hikes to be highly dependent on the level of TRY going into the MPC meeting. Hence, USDTRY falling below 4.00 would constitute a downside risk to our call

  7. #777
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 April 2018

    • Asian and European equities remain under pressure on concerns over US yields
    • GBP sold off yesterday ahead of today’s vote in the House of Commons on the Customs Union
    • Today’s focus is on the ECB’s April meeting


    Asian and European equities remained under pressure yesterday amid ongoing concerns over US yields, but US stocks overtook the fears and gained on the back of strong corporate earnings. In FX, the risk off sentiment prompted the USD Bloomberg Spot Index to rise yesterday, before consolidating overnight
    GBP came under renewed pressure yesterday with GBPUSD falling to below 1.3930 amid broad-based USD strength. Today the House of Commons will debate on whether the UK should remain in a Customs Union after Brexit. While this is a non-binding vote, it could stoke internal conflicts in the Conservative Party
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3920 ahead of 1.3890, while resistance lies at 1.4000 and 1.4150. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8725 ahead of 0.8690 and 0.8620, while resistance is clearly at 0.8800
    Today’s focus is on the ECB where Barclays Research expects the MPC to keep its policy on hold and downgrade its 2018 outlook. This is because “activity data have surprised negatively in Q1 18 and global risks cast a longer shadow over the outlook for 2018”; Barclays Research think that “the statement will sound slightly more cautious and the balance of risks less upbeat than in March”
    In Turkey, the CBT hiked the LLW O/N lending rate by 75bp at its April MPC meeting, more than the 50bp expected in the Bloomberg survey. The accompanying MPC statement reflects the committee’s increasing concerns about the inflation outlook, one of the major reasons for implementing what it refers to as “measured” tightening
    Barclays Research believes “the CBT could come under pressure again into the June MPC meeting depending on global EM sentiment as well as evolution of political risks”

  8. #778
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 April 2018

    • Global equities rallied yesterday as the latest bout of earnings results buoyed sentiment
    • GBP comes under pressure this morning ahead of UK GDP at 09.30
    • The ECB delivered no surprises at yesterday’s meeting


    Global equities rallied yesterday, led by technology shares after strong earnings announcements. Geo-political tensions also improved overnight as North and South Korea held their first summit in over a decade, driving local equities higher. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index climbed to the highest level in 15 weeks
    The SEK underperformed yesterday, falling to its lowest level since the end of the financial crisis, after the Riksbank again delayed plans to increase interest rates
    GBPUSD has been falling this morning ahead of the release of preliminary UK GDP at 9.30. Given the BoE’s data dependency ahead of the MPC meeting in May, disappointments in data could pose downside risk to Sterling. In light of this, markets will also be focusing on speeches by BoE’s Haldane and Carney at 3.00 and 3.15, respectively
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3660, while resistance lies at 1.4000. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8680 ahead of 0.8625, while resistance is at 0.8800
    The ECB made neither policy announcements nor any changes to forward guidance at yesterday’s meeting. The focus of the ECB press conference was on the recent moderation of economic activity but the Governing Council still remains confident about the outlook for growth and inflation
    Provided there are no negative surprises, Barclays Research believes “the ECB should be in a position to announce the tapering of the APP program in its July meeting”
    The BoJ kept its current policy unchanged at its first MPM under new leadership. While largely retaining its real GDP growth and core CPI inflation forecasts, the bank removed its reference to reaching the 2% price stability target “around FY19”

  9. #779
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 April 2018

    • UK Q1 Preliminary GDP disappointed on Friday, causing the pound to weaken
    • Sterling remains under pressure at the start of the week after Amber Rudd resigns as Home Secretary
    • This week, focus turns to the FOMC meeting (Wed), UK Services PMI (Thu) and US on-farm payrolls (Fri(

    In the UK, Preliminary Q1 GDP growth printed at 0.1% q/q versus consensus expectations of 0.3%q/q. Sterling weakened in response, with GBPUSD trading to a 2 month low of 1.3747 (Bloomberg) on Friday as market pricing for a May rate hike reduced from c.55% to c.24% this morning
    Volatility in construction was estimated to be the main drag on growth and services were dragged down in February by temporary softness. Therefore, Barclays research believe “the release reveals little regarding whether the underlying trend has changed or not”
    With activity data taking on increased importance, UK services PMIs on Thursday will be closely watched by markets
    Despite the re-pricing of BoE hike expectations by the market, Barclays Research continue to expect the MPC to raise rates by 25bps on May 10th
    GBP remains under pressure this morning on the back of political uncertainty after home secretary, Amber Rudd resigned as home secretary saying she "inadvertently misled" MPs over targets for removing illegal immigrants (BBC)
    GBPUSD support is at 1.3750 short term, ahead of 1.3700 and 1.3660 with resistance at 1.3835 ahead of 1.3900 and 1.4000. EURGBP has broken above 0.8800, which opens up 0.8875-0.8900 ahead of previous range highs towards 0.9000-0.9050
    Barclays Research sees further near-term USD potential upside as it re-correlates with rates. This reflects their “expectations that carry would reassert itself amid range-trading, less stretched valuations and broader returns to capital increasingly favouring the USD.”
    US data and the May FOMC (Wed) are unlikely to deter the USD’s rally as significant fiscal stimulus should keep the economy above-trend for the next two years. Barclays research expect a 25bp hike in June and quarterly 25bp hikes through end-2019.

  10. #780
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 May 2018

    • FX price action yesterday dominated by month end flows, overall moves were relatively muted
    • RBA kept the Australian cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected this morning
    • UK Construction PMI data released today is likely to be scrutinized ahead of the BoE meeting next Thursday with Asia and Europe out on holiday


    Despite a busy day for corporate earnings and big-ticket M&A announcements yesterday, US stock markets closed slightly lower and the 10y Treasury yield continued to hover just below 3%. European and UK equities posted gains, as did the energy complex
    In FX, price action yesterday was dominated by month end flows, with better net supply of EUR. Italy also remained in focus due to headlines of early elections being called for by the Five Star Movement
    With most of Europe out on holiday today, we expect a quiet session
    As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.50% this morning. It made no changes change to its guidance in today’s statement, but reinserted the reference to 3% growth in 2018-19
    The lack of change in guidance indicates that rate hikes are not in the vicinity. Barclays Research have pushed back their rate hike call to H1 2019, whilst not ruling out a move in November if data is stronger than expected in the interim
    UK PMI data this morning at 09.30 will be watched closely ahead of the BoE meeting on 10th May, after the initial estimate of UK Q1 GDP resulted in the market pricing a materially lower probability of a 25bp hike in May. We expect April manufacturing PMI to edge lower after having steadied in the last few months
    Despite this, and the market’s reaction last week, Barclays research continue to forecast a rate hike at the BoE’s next meeting as they “believe the Q1 weakness is temporary and the UK’s underlying growth trend is still slightly above potential”
    GBPUSD support is at 1.3700 ahead of 1.3660, with resistance at 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900. In EURGBP we are watching 0.8750 and 0.8665 support levels and resistance comes in at 0.8820 ahead of 0.8875-0.8900
    In the US yesterday, the March personal income and spending report showed a pickup in household spending alongside steady income growth. On the inflation side, US headline PCE reached the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% y/y

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