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  1. #781
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 May 2018

    • The dollar consolidates at a four-month high, re-coupling with rising US Treasury yields
    • Sterling continues to trade with an offered tone, as political risks resurge
    • US FOMC rate decision and policy statement in focus this evening


    The dollar consolidated at a four-month high overnight, re-coupling with rising US Treasury yields, as investors digested the latest earnings reports and many markets reopened after holidays. 10-year Treasury yields pushed higher, though remained below 3 percent, while safe-haven assets such as the yen and gold advanced
    U.S. equity futures edged lower after a report suggested the possibility of a subpoena has been raised for President Donald Trump in an ongoing special-counsel investigation (Bloomberg)
    EURUSD broke below the 200 day moving average (1.2016) and psychological 1.2000 level before rallying back towards 1.2030 in early London trading
    Sterling continues to trade with an offered tone this morning, further to a weak UK Manufacturing PMI print yesterday which cast additional doubt on the strength of the UK economy, printing 53.9 vs. 54.8 expected (the lowest reading since November 2016), and further reducing expectations for the BoE to hike rates at its May 10th meeting
    Political risks appear to be back on the market’s radar, as reports this morning of PM May facing confrontation over an EU “customs partnership” further weigh on the pound, one day ahead of local elections
    GBPUSD support comes at 1.3580 ahead of 1.3550-1.3535 (previous highs and 200 dma) and 1.3450 YTD low area. Resistance comes in at 1.3630 ahead of 1.3730
    Barclays Research expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the May meeting this evening. The FOMC statement should reiterate the committee’s constructive view on the outlook, as fiscal stimulus is expected to support activity in the coming year, although the soft patch in data in Q1 could bring some modest restrain in its assessment. The market is already pricing a rate hike in June and today’s meeting should do little to alter market expectations

  2. #782
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 May 2018

    • Fed keeps interest rate and balance sheet policies unchanged
    • EUR/USD trades to new recent lows overnight
    • UK April services PMI in focus this morning, ahead of BoE next week


    As expected, the Fed kept its interest rate and balance sheet policies unchanged on Wednesday evening. In the statement, the committee expressed more confidence about hitting the 2% inflation target, without indicating any need to waver from its path of gradually tightening monetary policy. Barclays Research continue to expect the next 25bp rate hike in June
    Overnight, Asian equities were mixed, further to weakness in US stock markets. UST yields were broadly stable and the USD came off initially before recovering somewhat
    Having initially reacted positively to the Fed outcome, EURUSD later reversed and traded to new recent lows (1.1938, Bloomberg) overnight. 1.1930 provides meaningful support, with a break through potentially opening up a broader move towards 1.1715. Resistance 1.2035, 1.2085 ahead of 1.2150/60
    In the UK, Barclays Research expect the UK April services PMI to bounce back to 53.0 after the sharp drop seen in March, caused partly by weather-related weakness. Data will be keenly watched with the BoE traditionally placing high importance on survey data and further to the disappointing manufacturing PMI data released on Tuesday
    Markets will also have one eye on local elections in the UK today, though with pollsters already expecting PM May’s Conservative Party to suffer losses, only a significant surprise would be likely to influence the pound
    GBPUSD support comes around 1.3535 (200 day moving average) ahead of 1.3450 YTD low area, with resistance at 1.3670 ahead of 1.3725
    Elsewhere, in the US we look for the ISM non-manufacturing index to moderate slightly and we expect euro area “flash” headline HICP inflation to remain unchanged at 1.3% in April

  3. #783
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 May 2018

    • UK April Services PMI misses expectations, Barclays no longer expect May BoE hike
    • USD strength takes a pause, GBPUSD and EURUSD remain near 4-month lows
    • April US payrolls data is today’s focus


    low-par data was again in focus yesterday as the UK April Services PMI failed to improve sufficiently to meet market expectations, signaling a structural weakening in the services sector, adding evidence that underlying growth may be materially weaker than the BoE thinks
    GBP traded with a lower bias and Barclays Research revised their call for the MPC to hike rates in May. Research now see no hikes until at least the end of 2019
    USD remained relatively muted, with US fixed income taking a back seat and US equities trading in a volatile but ultimately relatively unchanged fashion having found support after a weak start to the session
    In UK local elections, a mixed picture emerged with Labour failing to make large gains, relieving some pressure on PM May in the short term
    GBPUSD interest has been two-way, with support at 1.3540 holding for now. Below there, 1.3500 then 1.3460 supports. To the topside, 1.3670, 1.3725 then 1.3835 resists
    EURGBP remains relatively rangebound, 0.8800/0.8850 the immediate levels to watch for now
    Elsewhere yesterday, Eurozone core inflation surprised to the downside and in the US, ISM non-manufacturing data moderated, albeit at very healthy levels. This morning’s European services PMIs generally moderated but remain in expansionary territory
    Today’s focus turns to April US Nonfarm payrolls where Barclays Research expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4%, average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y, and average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.5, with headline payrolls growth of +175k

  4. #784
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 May 2018

    Confusion In FX
    FX markets start the week directionless and scant motivation to pick a direction. EURUSD has already retraced gains achieved on Friday. Friday weak headlines payroll (164k vs. 190k consensus estimate), while unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, encouraged equity traders yet gained to excite USD bulls. The subdued wage growth lowered the risk of quicker rate hikes at the Fed. General risk on sentiment pressured the front-end of the US treasuries, which supported tech and financial sectors. Commodities have latched on the positive feeling to drive up oil prices (wti $70.69 high) and commodity currencies. Overall, market are waiting for new direction, willing to wait for fundamental guidance. The BoE and RBNZ are expected to hold rates while BoJ and Riksbanks will released policy meeting minutes. Perhaps the most meaningful data will be inflation from the US and Switzerland.
    We remain sidelined on the current USD rally, as the rationale remains elusive. Overly short USD positive has been cut while interest rates correlation is inconsistent with pricing patterns. In fact in the G10 only the GBP is now driven by changing monetary policy. We do understand the risk that USD breakout of 3-month range suggests a stronger correction is in the making. However, lacking understandable drivers we would rather wait. Especially since looming deadlines for the Iranian nuclear deal and ominous warning from U.S. President Donald Trump’s attorney, Rudy Giuliani, that other hush payments to women outside pornstar Stormy Daniels was a possibility. Political chaos in the US is now being ignored by the markets, however the closer we get to the midterm elections the higher the risk becomes. As for this week play the range with low probably of a break out expected. Of course, keep our eyes on Turkey were political instability is ramping up.

  5. #785
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 May 2018

    • The USD and crude oil continued their rally at the start of the week
    • Italy’s government consultations failed to find a new coalition
    • This week’s focus is on the BoE meeting on Thursday


    Global equities started the week with slight gains as US 10y Treasury yields began to approach the 3% level again. In FX, volumes were light yesterday given the UK’s bank holiday, but the USD continued to strengthen having rallied for the past three weeks
    Crude oil rose to a 3-year high yesterday on various media reports (Bloomberg) that President Trump will today announce whether or not to extent Iranian sanction waivers. Barclays research “think the current Iran deal will not survive under President Trump”
    GBP came under pressure last week amid disappointing data prints, political concerns and diminishing expectations for a BoE May rate hike. This week’s focus is on the BoE meeting on Thursday where Barclays Research does not expect a change in policy
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3480 ahead of its year-to-date lows of 1.3450, while resistance comes in at 1.3670 ahead of 1.3725. EURGBP support lies at 0.8760 ahead of 0.8690 and 0.8625, and resistance comes in at 0.8840-80
    In Italy, the third round of government consultations failed to form a coalition yesterday. Barclays Research’s baseline is now that snap elections this year are likely. Early ballots would change the outlook of political risk: under certain circumstances, an outright anti-system government between M5S and L could be increasingly likely after the next elections
    The Argentine peso came under increased pressure last week. After repeated policy rate hikes from the central bank over the past two weeks, we expect the Argentine peso to find some stability around its current level

  6. #786
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 May 2018

    • Market reaction relatively muted following the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal
    • GBP remains under pressure amid Brexit risks
    • Argentina started talks with the IMF to obtain a credit line as the Argentine Peso continues to weaken


    US President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal yesterday. All the US sanctions that were lifted under the JCPOA will be reinstated. Market reaction was relatively muted as the US exit was somewhat expected:
    Safe-haven currencies, including the USD, rallied on back of the headlines, while crude oil ended the day mostly unchanged despite a volatile session
    The implications of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal are wide-ranging. Barclays Research thinks that “the withdrawal is likely to bolster market concerns of a potential supply-side shock, reinforcing the recent de-risking trend in FX markets and strengthening of the USD”
    Regarding the oil price, the renewed sanctions could threaten Iran’s ability to market its oil, but Barclays Research thinks that “the geopolitical consequences would likely play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher”
    GBP had a volatile trading session yesterday amid headlines of UK PM May facing conflicts regarding Brexit proposals. Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3480 ahead of 1.3450, while resistance comes in at 1.3600 ahead of 1.3670 and 1.3725
    The EUR dropped to a new 4-month low this morning on the back of increased political uncertainty in Italy. Given that the recent government consultations failed to form a coalition, another election is increasingly likely
    The Argentine peso has continued its sell-off this week, however, the government has started talks with the IMF to obtain a $30bn credit line. There are no details on the program yet, but the credit is supposed to be a preventive measure, intended to serve as a backstop to help to deal with adverse shocks and curb market volatility. The BCRA kept its policy rate at 40% yesterday and indicated that elevated policy rates will be maintained in the near future

  7. #787
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 May 2018

    • Today focus is on the BoE’s rate decision at 12.00, followed by the press conference at 12.30
    • Global equities rose marginally led by the energy sector
    • The RBNZ turned more dovish at yesterday’s meeting


    Global equities rose slightly yesterday led by the energy sector on back of US President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. The headlines further prompted Brent crude futures to rally above $77, the highest level since 2014
    In EM, TRY gained significantly yesterday after Turkish President Erdogan called a meeting with economic decision makers to discuss the recent slump in the currency
    Today focus is on the Bank of England’s May meeting where Barclays Research does not expect a change to the policy rate, in line with doubts expressed by Governor Carney regarding the timing and softer business sentiment in April being an increasing source of concern (we expect a 7:2 vote for status quo on rates). Markets will pay particular attention to the tone of the press conference to understand the general view of the MPC
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450-80 with resistance at 1.3600 ahead of 1.3660 and 1.3735. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8725 ahead of 0.8690 and 0.8625, while resistance lies at 0.8810 and 0.8850-75
    The RBNZ voted unanimously to leave the Official Cash Rate at 1.75% as expected. The tone of the monetary policy statement was more dovish than at previous meetings given that the committee did not rule out the possibility of a cut as a next policy move
    Elsewhere, Malaysia’s opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan, unexpectedly defeated the incumbent Barisan Nasional, in the 14th general elections since Malaysia’s independence. The surprise outcome poses considerable uncertainty in the near term as the incoming coalition has promised several sweeping changes to the administration. Downside risks to economic growth could emerge if key infrastructure projects face delays, potentially delaying further monetary normalisation by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)

  8. #788
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 May 2018

    • USD falls on weaker-than-expected US inflation
    • BoE left its monetary policy unchanged at yesterday’s May meeting
    • Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement and right-wing Lega party progress with talks to form a government


    Global equities continued to trade higher yesterday led by the energy sector and fueled by a weaker-than-expected US CPI print. The weaker inflation data also prompted US Treasury yields to fall and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index dropped by 0.6% as a result
    NZD retraced some of its losses overnight after falling to its lowest level since December on Thursday vs the USD in the aftermath of a dovish RBNZ meeting
    The BoE left its monetary policy unchanged at its May meeting yesterday as widely expected, with a vote split of 7:2. Despite toning down its rhetoric and downgrading its GDP forecast for 2018, the MPC remains constructive and continues to signal ongoing gradual tightening. It appears that Carney still wants something priced in for this year, given his comments during a BBC interview later in the day, that a rate increase is ‘likely by the end of the year’
    Rate expectations will likely be very data dependent going forwards. Barclays Research forecasts of no hikes until at least the end of 2019 as they believe that “data is likely to continue to contradict the BoE’s expectations of a pickup”
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 and resistance at 1.3615-60. EURGBP finds support at 0.8720, while resistance lies at 0.8840-75
    In Italy, equities closed down and front-end BTP yields increased amid increasing political uncertainties as the populist parties, 5SM and Lega, continued discussions on forming a government
    Elsewhere, the Philippine’s BSP raised rates by 25bp and Malaysia’s BNM remained on hold. In Malaysia, Barclays Research believes “that election result is likely to create policy uncertainty and we now expect the BNM to stay on hold for the rest of 2018”

  9. #789
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 May 2018

    • USD momentum likely to have stalled in the near term
    • GBP markets focus on release of the UK employment report (Tuesday)
    • Italy’s anti-establishment parties propose economic program


    Despite escalating geopolitical risks, global equities generally rose last week with the S&P up almost 2.5%. In FX, the USD’s sharp and broad-based rebound that has dominated markets since mid April, seems to have stalled in the near term. Stabilization in risk sentiment, soft US wage and core inflation data, cleaner positioning and the rapid pace of the USD appreciation raise risks of a near-term retracement
    The notable underperformer overnight has been TRY with USDTRY increasing by c.1% in Asia trading after President Erdogan’s comments over the weekend that interest rates will be at different levels after June 24, the date of Presidential elections
    Last week’s key development was US President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA on Iran. This only led to a muted market reaction as the decision had been broadly expected. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions should not be overlooked, especially in light of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran after last week’s missile launches
    GBP had a quiet end to the week on Friday after some volatility over Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Given the central bank’s increased focus on data, sterling is now likely to be very data dependent and thus this week’s focus is on the release of the UK’s employment report (Tuesday)
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450, while resistance lies at 1.3620 and 1.3660. In EURGBP, support comes in at 0.8785 ahead of 0.8725 and 0.8690, and resistance is around 0.8840-75
    In Italy, equities and front-end BTP yields came under pressure last week as the two populist parties, 5SM and Lega, held government talks. The newly proposed economic program which includes tax cuts, a universal income and a roll-back of previous pension reform will likely result in substantial fiscal slippage in the absence of credible economic measures

  10. #790
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 May 2018

    • USD rose after US 10y Treasury yields topped 3% yesterday
    • Focus on the UK’s unemployment report today at 9.30
    • ARS and TRY continued to underperform significantly


    US equities gained through the course of yesterday as hopes of diminishing trade tensions between the US and China dominated sentiment. Overnight however, US 10y Treasury yields climbed above the psychologically import level of 3%, prompting the USD to rally
    Focus is on UK unemployment data today, where Barclays Research expects a slight uptick in unemployment. Given the BoE’s strong data-dependency, sterling is sensitive to any such economic releases. Nonetheless, the bar for any future hikes is currently high and would require uninterrupted improvement in the labor market
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 with resistance at 1.3625. EURGBP short-term support comes in at 0.8785, while resistance lies in the 0.8840-75 area
    The RBA minutes, released overnight, seem a little more cautious than the previous month's discussion, where the RBA kept rates on hold at the May 2018 meeting. The committee highlighted some new risks around tightening bank lending standards and economic fundamentals, which prompted AUDUSD to fall overnight
    Argentinean assets and ARS continued to sell off yesterday. ARS fell by a further 7% despite central bank intervention, on the back of a large current account deficit and a decline in portfolio flows. The government has requested a high-access stand-by IMF agreement and Barclays Research expects “a favourable conclusion in the coming weeks”
    The other notable underperformer in the EM space was TRY, which dropped to a new record low yesterday after Turkish President Erdogan, an antagonist of high interest rates, announced that he intends to control monetary policy to a greater extent if he wins the June elections

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