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  1. #851
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Aug 2018

    • Escalating geopolitical tensions drove risk-off sentiment in equity markets
    • Strong USD demand prompted EURUSD and GBPUSD to break through key support levels
    • TRY and RUB are notable underperformers amid diplomatic tensions


    Asian stocks traded lower overnight, while European and US equity futures also came under pressure amid a general risk-off sentiment due to escalating geopolitical tensions. In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index is close to 13-month highs, and TRY and RUB underperformed
    EURUSD broke below 1.1500 this morning amid strong demand for USD, driven in part by a sell-off in EM. The key focus today in terms of data is US CPI at 13.30
    GBPUSD is also under pressure this morning, breaking below 1.2800. Focus this morning will be on UK Q2 GDP data at 09.30
    USDTRY spiked by 13% to new record highs breaking 6.3000 this morning amid low liquidity and ongoing concerns about the diplomatic tensions with the US. Further headlines will be watched closely today, in particular any reports of potential intervention by the CBT
    At 12.00 markets also focus on the release of Turkey’s New Economic Model
    Russia’s Prime Minister Medvedev reportedly stated that any US move against Russian banks equates to a declaration of economic war (Reuters), just after the US announced new sanctions on Russia on Wednesday. The escalating tensions continue to drive RUB depreciation

  2. #852
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Aug 2018

    • TRY sell-off dominated global risk-off sentiment last week
    • Flight to safe havens prompted rally in USD, JPY and CHF
    • EURUSD hit 1-year low on concerns about TRY decline


    Last week saw significant volatility in emerging markets, led by a sharp depreciation of TRY as diplomatic tensions between Turkey and the US worsened. The risk-off sentiment also negatively impacted INR, IDR and ZAR in particular and global equities closed in the red across the board
    Safe havens including USD, JPY and CHF rallied towards the end of the week on the back of the increased geopolitical risks
    TRY sold-off aggressively last week and hit new record lows on Friday after US President Trump authorized a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Turkey. Weekend headlines of potential “new financial tools” increased uncertainty and has caused TRY to weaken further, with USDTRY spiking above 7.000 overnight. Focus is on any political developments and potential CBT intervention
    EURUSD hit a one-year low trading below 1.1400 this morning on reports that ECB officers are concerned about European banks’ exposure to Turkey (Financial Times)
    While we have a number of important E19 data releases this week, including IP, GDP and inflation, EURUSD will likely be driven by general risk sentiment and EM volatility
    In the UK, GDP grew by 0.4% in Q2 in line with expectations. Overall, however, the print was on the weak side, with activity slowing in the last month of the quarter, driven by services. The effect on GBP was limited, as FX was mainly driven by EM volatility and flight to safe havens

  3. #853
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Aug 2018

    • Global risk-sentiment started to recover overnight
    • EURUSD and GBPUSD recouped some of yesterday’s losses
    • TRY likely to remain volatile


    European equities opened higher this morning as global risk sentiment started to recover and concerns over Turkey and contagious EM weakness seem to have eased somewhat; meanwhile Asian equities were mixed, partially suffering from some disappointing Chinese economic data
    Chinese retail sales and industrial production missed expectations and investment growth fell to a record low in July
    The stabilisation of risk saw safe-haven demand wane, with the USD Bloomberg Spot Index and JPY weaker, while UST yields are higher this morning. The easing of EM-related concerns also prompted a rebound in EURUSD and GBPUSD
    Today we have UK employment and E19 GDP data, however risk / USD sentiment will likely remain the overwhelming market driver
    USDTRY saw another volatile session yesterday amid ongoing political turmoil and some headlines that the CBT will provide liquidity (Reuters). This morning, USDTRY fell by more than 5% so far
    Barclays Research thinks “Turkish assets are likely to remain under pressure … as recent events argue for a continued build-up in risk premia in the TRY and long-end bonds”

  4. #854
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 Aug 2018

    • US equities traded higher yesterday, but their Asian counterparts were mixed
    • GBPUSD and EURUSD fell to 13-month lows this morning
    • Data releases showed mixed performance in the UK and the Euro Area


    US equity markets rose yesterday as volatility surrounding Turkey eased somewhat, however Asian shares had a mixed performance overnight, still weighed down by disappointing Chinese economic data and general concerns over China’s slowing economy
    In FX, TRY recovered some of its recent losses, with USDTRY approaching 6.000 this morning. However, the geopolitical tensions between Turkey and the US continued drive a risk-off sentiment and the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rose for the fourth consecutive day as a result
    AUDUSD led losses within the G10 group, trading at its lowest level since January-17
    GBPUSD dipped below 1.2700 and EURUSD fell to a 13-month low this morning amid general USD strength. Today we get UK inflation data at 9.30 and Brexit talks are due to resume tomorrow, but FX will likely be vulnerable to the broader risk sentiment
    Data releases came in mixed yesterday. The UK’s June Labour Report showed that unemployment fell to 4%, the lowest rate since 1975, but wage growth continued to decelerate. In the Euro area, Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.4% q/q supported by German Q2 growth surprising to the upside, however June Industrial Output data came in below expectations

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