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  1. #871
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Sep 2018

    • Global equities lower amid continuing Sino-US trade tensions
    • Emerging markets remain under pressure
    • Focus on US nonfarm payrolls this afternoon


    Global equities traded lower on Thursday as markets await potential further escalations in the Sino-US trade relationship. The public consultation period on President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on an additional $200bio of Chinese goods ended on Thursday, without further announcement from Washington
    Asian stocks fell overnight further to a volatile session in the US which left the S&P down c. 0.4%
    GBP saw a calmer session on Thursday as the market continued to digest headlines from the previous day. Focus today will remain on Brexit headlines and developments, although next week will be a busy data week in the UK with GDP, employment data and the Bank of England MPC meeting all on the agenda
    In emerging markets, the Philippine peso touched an almost 13-year low on Thursday in the wake of a record high inflation reading for August
    Focus today will be on the US August employment report, with Barclays Research expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k on the month. Investors will watch for wage growth in particular
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 09-07-2018 at 01:57 PM. Reason: changing the date

  2. #872
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Sep 2018

    • Global equities mostly lower amid escalating US-Sino trade rhetoric
    • Strong US Employment report supported USD rally
    • Sweden’s election resulted in inconclusive hung parliament


    US and Asian equities closed mostly lower last week after US President Trump pledged to impose tariffs on a further $267bn of goods in addition to the $200bn already at risk of duties (Reuters). In FX, the escalating trade rhetoric as well as strong earnings and employment data supported a rally in the USD Bloomberg Spot Index
    The US Employment Report on Friday confirmed the strength of the labour market. The headline number came in, in line with expectations at +201k but more notably average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, suggesting firming wage pressures
    Barclays Research views the compositions of the report as “supportive of our outlook for continued normalization in Fed policy”
    GBPUSD has continued to be driven by Brexit headline volatility, with more positive rhetoric coming from EU’s Barnier at the end of last week suggesting that 90% of the Withdrawal Agreement has been agreed (Bloomberg). Today’s focus is on UK GDP, IP and Manufacturing output data
    Our traders currently see resistance at 1.3000-1.3030 and support lies at 1.2870 in the short-term. EURGBP resistance lies at 0.9000-0.9035 while support comes in at 0.8900
    In Sweden, yesterday’s elections resulted in an inconclusive hung parliament and coalition discussions are thus due to start this week. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats received less votes than expected, but were still the 3rd largest party. EURSEK has traded relatively unchanged thus far

  3. #873
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Sep 2018

    • US equities traded higher on improving risk sentiment
    • Sterling rallied yesterday on positive Brexit rhetoric
    • Focus will be on UK employment data today at 09.30


    US equities posted small gains yesterday while their Asian counterparts performed mixed overnight. General risk sentiment improved yesterday on headlines that the US is open for a second meeting with North Korea (Bloomberg) and was aided by some positive Brexit rhetoric
    In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded marginally lower and JPY lost against all of its G10 peers as demand for safe havens decreased
    GBPUSD rallied above 1.3000 yesterday on comments by EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier that a “Brexit deal is realistic in 6-8 weeks” (Bloomberg) and has held its gains thus far this morning
    The bid tone in GBPUSD also dragged EURUSD back above 1.1600 which otherwise saw no notable catalysts for the move higher
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 while resistance is at 1.3200 and 1.3365. EURGBP support lies at 0.8890 ahead of the 0.8850 area while resistance is at 0.8930 and 0.9005
    In data, UK GDP came in better-than-expected and industrial output was in line with expectations but did not impact GBP significantly. Today’s focus is on the UK Labour Report at 09.30 BST
    Emerging markets were relatively quiet yesterday. Nonetheless, USDINR is trading near record highs and USDTRY traded marginally higher as investors await the CBT meeting on Thursday

  4. #874
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Sep 2018

    • Asian equities under pressure on escalating US-Sino trade tensions
    • Trade tensions supported USD demand, and weighed on AUD and NZD
    • GBPUSD saw a volatile session amid new Brexit headlines


    US equities closed the day higher yesterday, however Asian stocks came under pressure overnight due to worsening US-Sino trade tensions. China reportedly seeks WTO authorization to impose $7bn/ year of sanctions on the US and the US was said to take a tough stance with China (Reuters)
    Energy stocks were aided by a c.2% rise in oil prices after Hurricane Florence threatened the US East Coast gasoline markets (Bloomberg)
    Trade concerns also affected FX markets as most G10 currencies traded lower against the USD, with AUD and NZD underperforming the most. Nonetheless, after its initial gains on safe-haven demand, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index dropped overnight on reports that Canada would be willing to make concessions to the US to resolve NAFTA talks (Reuters)
    GBPUSD saw a volatile session yesterday as focus was on Brexit headlines. Commentary by EU’s Barnier, Irish PM Varadkar and Chancellor Hammond was overall positive as they all repeated a near term time frame for the Withdrawal Deal to be agreed (Bloomberg). However, this morning saw negative headlines suggesting a potential leadership challenge for PM May (Telegraph)
    In data, the UK labour report showed robust employment and better-than-expected wage growth but had a limited impact on GBPUSD
    Yesterday afternoon BoE Governor Carney agreed to remain in office until the end of Jan-2020 however the news did not impact markets significantly

  5. #875
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Sep 2018

    • Global equities mostly higher on easing trade tensions
    • GBPUSD gained on more positive Brexit headlines
    • Focus on central bank meetings today, including ECB, BoE and CBT

    Global equities traded mostly higher yesterday as geopolitical tensions between the US and China eased after the US administration proposed another round of trade talks with Beijing (Bloomberg). In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded lower and CNY gained as a result of the news
    AUDUSD was the notable outperformer following strong Australian employment data
    GBPUSD closed the day higher amid positive headlines that the EU may redraft the Irish Brexit protocol to appease the UK (Bloomberg); nonetheless PM May remains under pressure with recent articles outlining that she adjusted immigration rules to counter rebelling lawmakers (The Times)
    Today’s focus is on the BoE meeting where Barclays Research do not expect any change in policy or forward guidance but will closely watch for comments regarding Brexit
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.2960 while resistance lies at 1.3087 and 1.3200. EURGBP is expected to hold its range of 0.8875-0.8935 in the short-term
    Focus today will also be on the ECB meeting after a report yesterday suggested that the ECB may make slight downward revisions on the growth forecasts (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere, USDTRY fell c.1% yesterday ahead of today’s CBT meeting. Barclays Research expect the CBT to hike all policy rates by 300bp following its strong and rare forward guidance

  6. #876
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Sep 2018

    • Global equities continued to rise on easing trade tensions
    • USD under pressure following disappointing inflation data
    • BoE and ECB remained on hold, CBT delivered a higher than expected hike of 625bp


    Global equities broadly continued to rise yesterday supported by easing risk sentiment as the US and China plan to have a new round of trade talks (Reuters). In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell on the back of a lower-than-expected August inflation print
    GBPUSD rose yesterday mainly due to the disappointing US CPI data. The BoE unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged, in-line with market expectations and prompting little GBP reaction. The BoE highlighted the recent acceleration in activity and wage data but also noted that uncertainty around Brexit has risen since August
    The ECB also kept its policy unchanged as expected. The committee noted concerns about rising protectionism and slightly downgraded growth and core inflation in 2019 and 2020
    In his statement, President Draghi seemed perhaps slightly less dovish than Tuesday’s headlines suggested which added further support to the rally in EURUSD
    Elsewhere, TRY strengthened c.4% vs USD after the CBT surprised the markets by hiking interest rates 625bp versus consensus expectations of 325bp. The central bank’s intervention added to improving risk sentiment
    Today’s focus is on Russia’s CBR meeting where Barclays Research expect the committee to keep interest rates unchanged but strike a hawkish tone

  7. #877
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 Sep 2018

    • Political tensions re-escalated as China may not join proposed trade talks with the US (WSJ)
    • USD under pressure last week but opened higher this morning
    • Focus on a number of central bank meetings this week


    Global equities traded mostly higher last week on hopes that Sino-US trade tensions would ease. However, this weekend’s headlines suggest a renewed escalation of the conflict as China may not participate in the proposed trade talks with the US (Wall Street Journal)
    In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index traded lower last week amid stabilizing risk sentiment. The Greenback was further dragged down by a lower-than-expected August inflation print
    This morning the index started to reverse its downward trend driven by increased safe haven demand
    GBPUSD closed last week higher amid general USD weakness and supported by some positive commentary by Michel Barnier and others regarding the Brexit Withdrawal deal. Barclays Research “see scope for further reduction in the GBP risk premium (…) associated with “no-deal” rhetoric” and thus focus will be on any further details regarding the Brexit negotiations
    Last week also saw EM central banks’ intervention to counter currency weakness. The CBT hiked 625bp to stabilise TRY and CBR raised interest rates by 25bp to support RUB
    This week, Barclays Research expect central banks in South Africa and Brazil to keep policy on hold and rely on a hawkish language instead

  8. #878
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Sep 2018

    • Global equities saw a mixed performance amid various trade-related headlines
    • GBPUSD traded higher yesterday on hopes for successful Brexit negotiations
    • Focus on the European Council meeting in Brussels today


    Global equities saw a mixed performance yesterday on the announcement that the US plans to impose a further 10% of tariffs on Chinese imports, effective from 24th September, which may increase to 25% from 2019. Markets focused on the imposition of the initial 10% rather than 25% and sentiment improved further on a report by the Chinese government that the two countries should cooperate (Bloomberg)
    The latter news prompted a sell-off in the USD Bloomberg Spot Index and a reverse rally in AUDUSD overnight
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday amid hopes for successful Brexit negotiations and broad USD weakness. This morning European Council President Tusk reportedly warned that a “no-deal” Brexit remains plausible (Bloomberg) weighing on GBP
    Today’s focus is on the European Council meeting which could provide more headlines
    In data, final euro area consumer prices for August confirmed the preliminary estimate; the breakdown shows that the decline in inflation was largely due to idiosyncratic components and does not necessarily suggest a deterioration of underlying inflation prospects
    RBA meeting minutes overnight confirmed that the next central bank action would likely be a hike. It was also flagged once more that trade concerns remain a “material risk” to the global outlook though did not provide any substantially new information as expected

  9. #879
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Sep 2018

    • Headlines that China will not engage in currency-devaluation supported CNY, AUD and NZD
    • PM May conveyed a positive message regarding Brexit yesterday
    • Bank of Japan kept its policy on hold


    Global equities traded mostly higher yesterday although we initially saw further retaliation in the Sino-US trade war as Beijing added $60bn of US products to its tariff list, taking effect on 24 September. Despite the news, risk sentiment improved aided by China’s Premier Li Kequiang’s statement that Beijing will not devalue the yuan to stimulate exports (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the news about China’s currency stance prompted USDCNY to fall and simultaneously supported rallies in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. The USD fell against most major peers in Asia
    GBPUSD touched a 7-week high overnight at 1.3175 but has retraced some of the gains since. With regards to Brexit, sentiment turned rather positive yesterday after PM May stated that the “withdrawal agreement is virtually agreed” (Bloomberg)
    Today’s focus will be on any further headlines as well as domestic inflation data at 9.30 BST. In Barclays Research’s view, “UK data are unlikely to offer much support to the pound”, forecasting inflation numbers below consensus expectations
    The Bank of Japan kept its policy on hold as widely expected, maintaining its 10-year JGB yield target at around zero. The MPC also left its forward guidance unchanged and intends to remain in a wait-and-see mode. USDJPY price action after the announcement has been fairly muted thus far

  10. #880
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Sep 2018

    • Risk sentiment tentatively recovering amid hopes of improving trade relations
    • USD came under pressure, while NZD outperformed overnight
    • GBPUSD was weighed down by further Brexit concerns at the informal EU Summit


    US stocks gained yesterday on hopes that the trade dispute between the US and China may not be as bad as previously feared, however, the Asian session was more mixed
    China reportedly plans to cut taxes that it charges on imports from a majority of its trading partners as soon as October (Bloomberg)
    Nikkei closed flat after Japan’s Premier Abe secured his tenure as the longest service PM, this prompted little price action in JPY
    The USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell to its lowest level in September amid the tentatively improving risk sentiment. NZDUSD outperformed overnight due to a better-than-expected New Zealand Q2 GDP print
    GBPUSD saw a volatile session yesterday amid data releases and political headlines. The pair initially rallied on a strong UK Inflation report, with August headline CPI at 2.7% vs consensus of 2.4%
    However, gains were quickly reversed after headlines suggested that PM May disagrees with the EU’s Brexit proposals to solve the Irish border issue (the Times) after yesterday’s informal EU Summit. A subsequent headline around a second referendum then prompted another short-lived rally
    Today’s focus will be on domestic Retail sales and any further headlines from the Summit
    In EM, markets watch Turkey’s Medium Term Plan announced at 09.00 BST which could provide growth projections and more details around future projects. Elsewhere, USDZAR fell yesterday amid a softer-than-expected inflation print; today’s focus is on the SARB meeting

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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