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  1. #831
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 July 2018

    • Stocks rebound as trade tensions appear to ease
    • GBP under pressure on Trump Brexit comments
    • Barclays Research revise BoE call for August and now expect a hike


    Stocks in the US rebounded yesterday and Asian stocks look set to follow suit as trade tensions appeared to ease with China refraining from detailing retaliation plans against threatened US tariff increases (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research think “the Chinese government is likely reevaluating its strategy, and moving from the current tit-for-tat approach towards more controlled and selective retaliation, while accelerating China’s opening up and domestic reforms”
    In the UK, market reaction to the release of the White Paper was muted, however overnight GBP came under pressure as US President Donald Trump warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May that her Brexit proposal could “kill” any future US trade deal
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3095 ahead of 1.3000, with resistance at 1.3365. They expect EURGBP will trade within a 40 pip range for now, with 0.8800-0.8900 wider range
    Barclays Research have revised their BoE call for August and now expect a hike
    The MPC will likely be satisfied with the latest data supporting Q2 GDP at 0.4% q/q and deliver a rate hike in August; three members voted previously for such a decision. This view is not supported by our macroeconomic forecasts, but based on recent policy statements, resilient data and more constructive Brexit negotiations
    Elsewhere, the ECB released the minutes of the June meeting. It did not deviate from the script in the earlier press conference, emphasizing the importance of forward guidance as a policy tool

  2. #832
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 July 2018

    • Global equities gained last week despite escalating geopolitical tensions
    • Domestic UK data unlikely to materially alter BoE rate hike expectations
    • Oil prices dropped on potential supply increases


    US and Asian equity markets mostly gained last week despite an abundance of trade-protectionism headlines, political turmoil in the UK, and geopolitical tension during President Trump’s European visit and NATO meetings. To start the week, Asian shares fell however on soft Chinese activity data
    USD rose against most currencies last week on concerns about the escalating trade conflict, even gaining against traditional safe havens such as JPY and CHF
    Last week saw geopolitical tensions escalating as the US Administration announced more tariffs on China and reiterated potential tariffs on cars from the EU. A so-far restrained response from China helped to stabilize sentiment towards the end of last week
    However, Barclays Research remains cautious on local market assets of countries that are exposed to escalating trade tensions
    This week's EU-China and EU-Japan summits could provide more signals on trade negotiations and could pose further headline risks
    GBPUSD was mainly driven by domestic UK political developments, which overshadowed the slightly more constructive rhetoric from the EU on Brexit progress. Barclays Research believes that “this week’s labour market, inflation and retail sales (…) are unlikely to materially alter market expectations of an August rate hike (c.20bp priced in) given the recent hawkish MPC rhetoric”
    Oil prices fell overnight on the back of reports that the US Administration is considering tapping into the emergency stockpiles to ease pricing tensions ahead of the November mid-term elections (Bloomberg)

  3. #833
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 July 2018

    • Global equities performed mixed yesterday
    • UK politics continued to make headlines but GBP remained relatively unchanged
    • Oil priced dropped on Saudi supply increases

    US equities closed mixed yesterday with energy stocks coming under pressure due to sliding oil prices, while financials were supported by better US earnings. Asian stocks mostly continued to trade lower on the back of soft Chinese activity data
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index has fallen since the start of the week ahead of Powell’s testimony tonight
    In the UK, the Customs bill was passed yesterday keeping PM May’s Brexit strategy on track, however EURGBP traded in a tight range which suggests investors’ fatigue with such news
    A potential resignation speech by Boris Johnson may pose further headline risk before an earlier than expected recess of Parliament for Summer on Thursday
    Today’s focus is on domestic labour market data at 9.30 as BoE’s Haldane has previously outlined the importance of this release for the fundamental economic outlook
    Crude oil prices dropped by more than 4% yesterday after Saudi Arabia increased its exports to Asia, and at the same time headlines suggest that the US could add to global supply and tap its strategic reserves to stabilize markets when sanctions on Iran come back in full later in the year
    The Antipodeans rallied overnight with AUD gaining on RBA minutes which indicated that keeping the policy rate unchanged is appropriate for now but that the next rate change is more likely an increase. NZD also outperformed against the weaker USD on RBNZ’s core inflation data which is at its fastest pace in seven years

  4. #834
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 July 2018

    • Global equities closed marginally higher yesterday
    • Powell’s testimony supported the USD
    • Focus on UK inflation this morning and any further Brexit-related headlines

    Global equities closed marginally in the green yesterday albeit price action was relatively muted overall. Powell’s semi-annual testimony provided a positive outlook on the US economy which supported the USD, sent two-year Treasury yields to their highest level in nearly 10 years and led gold drop to a one-year low
    Fed Chair Powell suggested that the Fed will continue its gradual hiking path “for now”, broadly in line with recent FOMC communication; USDJPY reached a 6-month high overnight on back of Powell’s upbeat assessment of the US economy
    The Beige Book could gain some importance today at 19.00, as it includes feedback from business leaders on the potential impact of trade tariffs
    PM May won yesterday’s House of Commons’ vote on her post-Brexit customs plans with a marginal majority, defeating plans of rebel Conservative MPs to amend the Trade Bill. GBPUSD sold off yesterday amid ongoing Brexit concerns, breaking below 1.3100 yesterday evening
    In data, the UK May Labour report continued to show signs of a buoyant labour market with strong job creation and strong hourly wages, but lower average weekly earnings
    Today’s focus is on UK inflation data at 9.30, and any further Brexit-related headlines

  5. #835
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 July 2018

    • Global equities traded mostly higher yesterday
    • GBP underperformed on weaker than expected inflation
    • Euro area inflation and US housing starts also surprised to the downside


    US equities continued to trade higher amid strong US corporate earnings and in the absence of many trade related headlines, however their Asian counterparts closed broadly lower. The Bloomberg USD Spot index retraced initial gains, and closed the day largely unchanged
    AUDUSD rallied (+0.6%) on a strong June employment report but also reversed most gains shortly after
    GBP was the main focus for investors yesterday as it continued to sell off after domestic inflation data came in weaker than expected. From a political standpoint, Prime Minister’s Questions and Boris Johnson’s resignation speech did not lead to market-moving headlines and a leadership contest seems unlikely before Parliament recesses for summer on Thursday
    Focus today is on UK Retail sales at 9.30 which may prompt the market to reevaluate chances of a BoE rate hike at the next meeting in August
    In other data, Euro area inflation surprised to the downside, which supports Barclays Research’s view that “euro area headline inflation is close to having peaked as volatile components approach their zenith”. In the US, housing starts declined sharply in June, leading Barclays Research to revise lower its residential investment tracker, but the overall GDP tracker was left unchanged at 5.3%
    Elsewhere, CNY dropped against most Asian currencies as the USDCNY fix was set at above 6.70. Additionally, the PBoC is reportedly considering incentivizing banks to support targeted lending (Reuters)

  6. #836
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 July 2018

    • US stocks traded lower on President Trumps’ discontent about strong USD
    • CNY dropped after PBoC lowered its fixing versus the USD
    • GBP sold off on softer than expected Retail sales

    US stocks declined yesterday, led by banks stocks, and US Treasuries rallied, after President Trump expressed his discontent about the Fed’s hiking cycle and the strong USD (CNBC). The White House clarified afterwards that the president “respects the independence of the Fed,” and that these comments were merely a reiteration of long-held views, but the USD and equities remained under pressure
    Barclays Research thinks “the Fed will need to continue to hike rates given data like yesterday’s initial jobless claims, which declined to 207k, from an upwardly revised 215k”
    In Asia, equities were mixed and CNY dropped after the PBoC adjusted its fixing to 6.7671 per USD, 100 pips above market expectations. This increased demand for safe havens, and consequently JPY gained versus most peers
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index also rose initially due to safe haven demand, but reversed most gains on concerns about the Fed’s interest-rate path on the back of President Trump’s comments
    GBPUSD dipped below the key 1.3000 level yesterday, printing new 10-month lows of 1.2958 (Bloomberg), after UK Retail sales came in below market expectations. While there were no political developments of note, Brexit negotiations continue to pose headline risk. Additionally, we get UK PSNB data today at 09.30

  7. #837
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 July 2018

    · Broad-based USD weakness towards the end of last week
    · Barclays Research sees “scope for modest retracement” in GBP
    · Speculation on BoJ normalization drove JPY higher

    Global equities were relatively stable last week, but came under pressure on Friday due to renewed concerns about global trade tensions. The standout move was the depreciation of the USD against most currencies and the selloff at the long end of the US Treasury curve
    EURUSD rallied since Thursday after US President Trump expressed his discomfort with the Fed’s rate hiking cycle and threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. This week, EURUSD will likely be driven by data and the ECB meeting on Thursday
    Barclays Research expects that “ECB policy settings and rhetoric will likely remain unchanged with few new insights”
    After last week’s increased volatility, GBPUSD remains susceptible to headline risk although Barclays Research thinks that “a lot of negativity is already in the price”. With parliament in recess, Barclays Research sees “scope for a modest retracement”
    Despite weak inflation and retail sales, the market did not materially change its view on the chance of an August rate hike
    Today attention will be paid to the speech of BoE’s Broadbent at 18.00, as he is the last speaker scheduled before the August BoE meeting
    Weekend reports (Reuters, Bloomberg) noted that the Bank of Japan is concerned about the side-effects of extraordinary easing and could therefore tweak its monetary policy. Speculation has thus far led USDJPY to drop by c.2% since Thursday’s highs, also weighing on Nikkei
    Barclays Research thinks that “any move toward full-scale normalization would need to be preceded by another ‘comprehensive assessment’ (…). If the Policy Board discusses the side-effects of its policy at this month’s MPM, we believe that could very well mark a step toward such an assessment“

  8. #838
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 July 2018

    • Asian equities traded higher overnight, while CNY dropped to lowest level in 12-months
    • Japanese yields rallied amid speculation of further BoJ intervention
    • Dovish comments from BOE’s Broadbent put downward pressure on GBP but price action was relatively muted

    Asian equities rose overnight, while CNY dropped to its lowest level in more than a year after injection of funding for Chinese banks. US shares were mixed, and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index gained over the course of yesterday, although price action was generally fairly muted
    MXN outperformed vs the USD on the back of US President Trump’s comments that he is talking to Mexico on “very dramatic, very positive” trade action
    Global bond yields traded higher yesterday following the rally in Japanese yields on the back of reports that the BoJ is actively discussing policy changes ahead of next week’s meeting (Reuters) and markets speculate that the BoJ may shift towards further yield curve steepening measures
    In the UK, BoE Broadbent’s speech yesterday evening had a rather dovish outlook, although he declined to comment on how he will vote at the MPC meeting next week
    GBPUSD traded with a bid tone, but price action was relatively muted in general and market expectations for the August rate hike remain at around 85%
    In terms of today’s central bank meetings, Barclays Research expect the CBT to raise Turkey’s one-week repo rate 125bp against a backdrop of a deteriorating inflation trajectory. In Hungary, we expect monetary policy to remain unchanged and the deposit rate to remain at 0.90%

  9. #839
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 July 2018

    • US equities rose on strong corporate earnings
    • TRY underperformed as CBT kept its policy unchanged against expectations
    • Today’s focus is on the Juncker-Trump meeting


    US equities continued to rise yesterday on strong corporate earnings while most Asian stocks also gained on hopes that China’s government spending will support the economy. In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index closed the day marginally lower
    GBPUSD traded with a slight bid tone yesterday in the absence of significant news on Brexit but price action was generally muted
    AUDUSD dropped after the Q2 CPI report showed weaker-than-expected headline inflation, which supporting the market’s pricing for unchanged RBA policy this year
    Euro Area “Flash” PMIs were weaker than expected versus forecasts of a recovery from the Q1 “soft patch”
    Barclays Research thinks the “release should be taken with a pinch of salt, our PMI-based GDP tracker lending some support to our baseline scenario that Q3 growth should mildly rebound to 0.5% q/q; however, risks remain skewed to the downside”
    In Turkey, the CBT kept policy rates unchanged at 17.75%, contrary to our and markets' expectation of a further hike. The announcement prompted a rally of Turkish government bond yields and USDTRY rising 3%
    Trade tensions may resurface today as European Commission President Juncker and US President Trump meet to discuss their trade relationship. Focus will be heightened given recent US threats to impose import tariffs on European cars

  10. #840
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 July 2018

    • US stocks and European equity futures gained on easing transatlantic tensions
    • USDJPY continues to fall due to speculation of BoJ normalization
    • Today’s focus is on the ECB meeting at midday


    US stocks and European equity futures gained on news that EU Commission President Juncker and US President Trump have agreed to start new talks on trade; meanwhile, Asian stocks showed a mixed performance overnight
    Following yesterday’s Juncker-Trump meeting, the EU has agreed to lower some industrial tariffs while increasing soybean and liquefied natural gas purchases from the US; tariffs on autos have been suspended thus far
    The easing of transatlantic tensions supported the EUR, while the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded lower as a result
    USDJPY has traded with an offered tone since yesterday, whilst Japanese 10-year yields rose to a one-year high on the back of speculation that the BoJ may tighten its loose monetary policy at next week’s meeting on 31st July
    Today’s focus is on the ECB meeting, although Barclays Research “expect few new insights from the Governing Council given the comprehensive roadmap already announced on QE and short rates in June and little change in financial and economic conditions since then”

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