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  1. #841
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 July 2018

    • European equities rallied after Juncker-Trump meeting
    • ECB Governing Council kept its monetary policy unchanged
    • BoJ announced a second bond purchase operation this week


    European equities rallied yesterday on the back of the easing transatlantic tensions following the Juncker-Trump meeting. However, headlines of Chinese retaliation plans against the US (Bloomberg) fueled investor concerns and led to a mixed performance in US and Asian stocks
    The Nasdaq was further dragged lower on the significant underperformance of Facebook which dropped almost 20% due to a disappointing earnings report
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded higher throughout yesterday’s session; today’s focus is on the US 2Q GDP release at 1.30
    Yesterday’s main event was the ECB meeting but the Governing Council did not make any changes to its monetary policy stance or to the risk assessment of the euro area outlook
    Overall, the message remained one of gradualism and policy accommodation, as well as patience to bring underlying inflation, still close to 1.0%, gradually towards target
    After a short-lived rally during the meeting, EURUSD fell 0.7% afterwards as a result of the meeting announcements
    The BoJ announced an unlimited bond purchase operation overnight for the second time this week, offering to buy 10-year notes at 0.1%, less than on Monday. JPY traded with a bid tone on the crosses on back of this announcement with EURJPY breaking below 129.5
    Focus is on next week’s BoJ meeting on 31st July as markets speculate that the MPC could normalize its monetary policy

  2. #842
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 July 2018

    • Equities were mainly driven by easing of trade-related tensions last week
    • BoJ meeting in focus tonight
    • BoE’s “Super Thursday” and US data in focus this week


    Last week, equity markets were mainly driven by easing trade-related tensions between the US and Europe, and among the NAFTA partners, although the S&P rally was tempered by a sharp fall in Facebook following disappointing results
    JPY and Japanese government bonds have recently become a major market focus, driven by media reports on possible policy normalization at tonight’s BoJ’s policy meeting
    Additionally, the BoJ offered another unlimited bond-purchase operation today, the third operation since last week which saw JGBs sell off
    Barclays Research sees “two-way risks for USDJPY with a downside bias”. While they expect “no change in BoJ policy this week, discussions on structural factors around inflation and policy side effects could set the stage for future policy changes”
    In the UK, the BoE’s “Super Thursday” will likely be the main driver of GBP this week. Barclays Research warns that “with a BoE hike nearly fully priced, risks to GBP seem skewed to the downside even in the event of a hike”
    Elsewhere, US economic data and trade policy developments will likely take preeminence over the Fed meeting on Wednesday in driving the USD. Barclays Research expect “the FOMC to offer little new information and reiterate the communication provided since the June meeting”

  3. #843
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 July 2018

    • Global equities broadly lower, led by tech underperformance
    • BoJ provided forward guidance that interest rates would remain low
    • GBP investors await Thursday’s BoE meeting


    Global equities closed broadly in the red yesterday, dragged lower by the technology sector. In Asia, the BoJ’s announcement of continued easy monetary policy was taken as a positive for equities and the Nikkei rose as a result
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell yesterday ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting
    The BoJ adjusted its monetary policy overnight, providing forward guidance that interest rates would remain low for an extended period of time. However, the MPC will allow greater flexibility for its 10y yield target and reduce the size of account balances subject to negative interest rates
    USDJPY is broadly unchanged after a brief spoke above 111.40 after the inflation forecasts were cut; 10-year JGBs fell 3bp and 40-year bonds dropped nearly 9bp
    In data, UK Consumer Confidence drifted lower in July, mainly driven by concerns over the broader economic outlook. While GBPUSD could see some noise due to month-end flows today, full focus will then be on Thursday’s BoE meeting

  4. #844
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Aug 2018

    • Global equities were driven by trade-related headlines yesterday
    • Japanese yields and JPY fell on BoJ policy announcement
    • Focus on FOMC at 19.00 today


    US equities rallied yesterday on reports that the US and China have restarted talks aimed at averting a trade war (Bloomberg). However, subsequent headlines of the US considering to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 25% raised investors’ concerns, and Chinese shares traded lower
    In FX, CNH and AUD fell, and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index rallied overnight on back of the trade-related headlines
    Japanese yields fell and JPY weakened throughout yesterday after the BoJ announced that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that there will be more flexibility in its yield-curve-control policy
    Barclays Research think “the adjustments to the BoJ’s monetary easing provide greater two-way freedom to future policy changes, but continue to expect gradual bear steepening in JGBs and appreciation in the JPY”
    In data, yesterday’s release of the preliminary estimate for euro area Q2 GDP growth came in at 0.3% q/q, slightly below consensus and driven by a downside surprise in France. Also in the euro area, headline inflation edged up to 2.1% in July
    Today’s focus is on the FOMC meeting although there will not be a press conference or any updated projections. Barclays Research do not expect the committee to raise rates at this meeting, but expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December

  5. #845
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Aug 2018

    • Global equities mostly fell yesterday amid increased trade-concerns
    • Global bond yields rally was triggered by a belated reaction to the BoJ
    • Focus on the BoE’s Bank Rate decision at 12.00


    Global equities closed mostly in the red yesterday, led by Chinese stocks, due to reports that the US may further raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% (Reuters). US industrial stocks fell, but technology shares were supported by Apple’s strong results
    In FX, TRY fell to a new historical low with USDTRY breaking above 5.0700 this morning on reports that the US is preparing a list of economic sanctions on the government
    Global bonds sold off yesterday, triggered by a belated move in JGBs after a muted initial reaction to the BoJ announcement on Monday. US 10 year Treasuries yields moved back up to 3% and UK gilts reached a 7-month high of 1.39%
    The Fed kept interest rates unchanged yesterday as widely expected, and thus had a limited impact on the USD. The committee’s language around the economic outlooks suggested that it had upgraded its view on the economy and continues to believe that labour markets are strong
    The BoE MPC meeting takes centre stage today, where Barclays Research forecasts a policy rate hike by 25bp to 0.75% and call for a 8:1 vote. With a hike almost fully priced in by markets, risks are arguably skewed to the downside and particular attention will be paid to the vote split, the inflation report and Carney’s speech
    In data, yesterday’s release of UK manufacturing showed that activity eased in July with output and future sentiment now at their lowest levels in 16 and 11 months, respectively
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 ahead of 1.2945 and 1.2775, while resistance comes in at 1.3220 ahead of 1.3325 and 1.3450-75

  6. #846
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 Aug 2018

    • Asian and European equities fell yesterday amid trade-war concerns
    • BoE hiked rates but GBP came under pressure on MPC communication
    • Focus is on the US Employment Report at 13.30


    Asian and European equity markets fell yesterday, catching up with the prior day’s fall in US markets on back of the Sino-US Trade tensions, however most US stocks traded higher yesterday led by Apple’s outperformance due to better-than-expected results
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index rose to a 2-week high yesterday ahead of today’s US Employment Report at 13.30. Elsewhere, the notable underperformer continued to be TRY, with USDTRY hitting a new historical highs above 5.1000 this morning
    The Bank of England raised its policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% as expected supported by a surprisingly hawkish unanimous vote. Changes to the BoE’s forecasts were minimal, as it welcomed the rebound in activity but implied that there will not be more than one hike a year
    For the first time, the MPC released an official estimate of neutral rates for the UK. The Bank published the long-term neutral rate of interest of a range of 2% to 3% in nominal terms; the committee acknowledged that the near-term rate would be much lower than the long-term range given the backdrop of elevated uncertainty
    After a short-lived spike, GBPUSD traded lower, selling off during the press conference and has broken below 1.3000 this morning on comments from Carney that some Brexit scenarios may require a rate cut and that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is “uncomfortably high”
    Mexico’s Banxico kept policy unchanged at 7.75%. There is a risk for a hike later this year which could be driven by MXN depreciation if the NAFTA negotiations fail, or by a deteriorating fiscal outlook. Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank also stayed on hold, keeping the Selic target rate at 6.5% as expected

  7. #847
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 Aug 2018

    • Asian stocks mixed overnight; US-China trade concerns continue
    • PBoC increases the cost of selling CNY
    • UK GDP in focus this Friday


    Asian stocks were mixed overnight as trade tensions between US and Chinese administrations showed no signs of abating. CNY pared back some of its gains following the rally triggered by Friday’s surprise PBoC move to increase the cost of selling CNY
    The PBoC has made it more expensive for market participants to buy USDCNY forwards by requiring banks to post a 20% FX reserve requirement for such transactions
    Barclays Research think the new requirement is designed primarily to reduce USDCNY forward buying pressure that has been exacerbated by onshore-offshore arbitrage. The measure may also indicate a waning tolerance for further CNY weakness, which already reflects slowing economic activity, monetary policy easing and heightened trade tensions
    Also on Friday, the US employment report showed labor market slack continues to diminish with job markets unfazed by protectionism
    Elsewhere last week, the BoJ provided forward guidance, but expanded the YCC corridor, the BoE hiked by 25bps and the Fed upgraded its outlook relative to June
    Looking to the week ahead, Barclays Research expect the RBA (Tuesday) and RBNZ (Thursday) to remain on hold this week
    While we expect the RBA to raise its policy rate from Q1 19, the central bank’s guidance on the timing of the next move has not been clear, and the market is pricing less than 10bp over the next year. The RBNZ is even more ambiguous, stating that the “next move is equally balanced, up or down”
    In the UK, GDP (Friday) will be scrutinized due to the BoE hike last week, which it justified with its forecast of growth above trend, in contrast with our more pessimistic view, due, partly, to Brexit risks

  8. #848
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Aug 2018

    • The USD traded mildly weaker against most G10 peers in the Asia session
    • The RBA kept policy rate unchanged at 1.50% overnight
    • TRY remained under pressure despite central bank efforts


    Asian equities traded generally higher in the morning session following a mixed session overnight, with Europe printing mild losses and the US seeing gains
    The USD traded mildly weaker against most G10 currencies in the Asia session while the TRY is recovering after underperforming significantly yesterday, likely on reports that a Turkish delegation will head to Washington for discussions (Reuters)
    The Reserve Bank of Australia left the policy rate unchanged at 1.50% overnight. The RBA said that its central projections for the economy were unchanged. However, the RBA noted that inflation was expected to average a little below 2% in 2018 due to one-off administrative price declines, but over the forecast horizon inflation could be slightly stronger than previous projections
    Barclays Research expect the RBA to stay on hold in 2018 and see risks of delay to their forecast of 50bp of hikes in H1 19
    The Turkish central bank decreased reserve requirements to boost banks’ FX liquidity in an attempt to support the TRY. However, the Turkish currency and sovereign bonds continued selling amid increased diplomatic tensions, following the imposition of US sanctions
    The PBoC has reintroduced reserve requirements for FX forwards. The measure makes it more expensive for market participants to buy USDCNY forwards. It may also indicate a waning tolerance for further CNY weakness, which already reflects slowing economic activity, monetary policy easing and heightened trade tensions. We continue to note significant upside risks to our USDCNY forecasts

  9. #849
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 8 Aug 2018

    • Global equity markets rose yesterday; S&P 500 reaching highest level since Jan
    • US announced 25% tariffs on a further USD16bn of Chinese goods
    • USD weakness overwhelmed despite miss in German industrial output


    Global equity markets rose yesterday with the S&P 500 reaching its highest level since late January. Overnight, however, equities in Asia pared gains as investor concerns around trade between the US and China continue to linger
    The US announced it will begin collecting 25% tariffs on another USD16bn of Chinese goods from 23 August. Despite lingering trade risks China’s July trade data remained strong, with both exports and imports beating expectations
    Further to recent action taken to ease pressure on the currency, the People’s Bank of China urged some lenders to prevent any “herd behavior” and momentum-chasing moves in the currency market, according to Bloomberg reports
    The CNY / CNH basis has narrowed significantly after the PBoC increased the cost of selling CNY (by requiring a 20% FX reserve) last Friday, considered to be in an effort to reduce speculation and the onshore/offshore arbitrage
    Elsewhere, German data may be showing the first signs that concerns about the impact of trade tensions are affecting growth, with June industrial output contracting by 0.9% m/m, below consensus expectations
    Despite the print, USD weakness overwhelmed yesterday driving a squeeze on EURUSD short positions, after the currency pair failed to meaningfully challenge the much discussed 1.1527-1.1500 support area
    This evening, Barclays Research expect the RBNZ to remain on hold, keeping its flexible guidance intact. In their most recent policy statement the RBNZ once again flagged that “the direction of the next move is equally balanced, up or down”

  10. #850
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Aug 2018

    • Global equities under pressure on escalating trade tensions
    • GBP remains under pressure, with GBPUSD breaking below 1.2900 yesterday
    • RBNZ took a dovish stance at its August meeting


    Global equities closed mostly lower yesterday on escalating trade tensions as China imposed 25% tariffs on a further $16bn imports from the US. Trade tensions also worsened between the US and Russia as the States imposed new sanctions and RUB accelerated its sell off as a result
    GBP remains under pressure with GBPUSD breaking below 1.2900 yesterday for the first time in 11 months. Since Liam Fox’s weekend comments that he sees a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit, there have not been any more clear catalysts for the continued depreciation. Focus on UK Q2 GDP data tomorrow
    The RBNZ was notably dovish at its August meeting last night, extending its period of hold, and downgrading its near term growth outlook, despite tight labour markets. They continue to indicate flexibility in moving rates “up or down”.
    NZDUSD dropped by more than 1% after the announcements
    TRY continued to underperform, with USDTRY printing new historical highs of this 5.3950 this morning. The Turkish delegation refused to commit to releasing the American pastor Brunson at the meeting in Washington, forthcoming headlines will be watched closely

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