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  1. #791
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 May 2018

    · Risk assets performed well yesterday, USD closed the day lower
    · GBP gained on positive Brexit headlines yesterday
    · Uncertainties in Italy put pressure on Italian assets and the EUR

    US equities performed well yesterday, despite North Korea’s threats to cancel the Kim-Trump meeting. Attention was also on US 10y Treasury yields which continued to rise up to 3.09%; this was however not enough to support the USD and the USD Bloomberg Spot Index closed lower
    GBP gained against its G10 peers on headlines (Telegraph) that the UK would be willing to stay in the customs union after Brexit. However, Reuters headlines this morning cite a Government source dismissing yesterday’s claims on the customs union; further clarity needs to be awaited
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 and resistance at 1.3570 ahead of 1.3625. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0.8715, while resistance lies at 0.8790
    Italian sovereign bonds, equities and periphery CDS fell on reports (Huffington Post) that Lega and 5SM propose a write-off of sovereign debt held by the ECB if they manage to form a government
    EURUSD came under pressure as well, falling to new YTD lows of 1.1764, but retracing some of the losses afterwards when Lega economic advisor Claudio Borghi denied such a proposal. 5SM reportedly announced that further details will be provided this weekend
    Elsewhere, Brazil’s BCB kept the policy rate unchanged in contrast to Barclays Research’s and market expectations. The surprise signals that they are relatively comfortable with inflation and activity dynamics and more concerned on the external front, given recent BRL underperformance

  2. #792
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 May 2018

    • US-China trade tensions returned as a driver for equity markets
    • GBP retraced initial gains on further Brexit headlines yesterday
    • Brent topped $80/ b, Barclays Research revised forecast higher

    Asian equities rose slightly overnight on reports that China was to offer an annual $200bn trade deficit reduction package to the US, however conflicting headlines have been released this morning (Reuters). In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index continued to rally as US 10y Treasury yields rose to 3.128%, the highest level in 7 years.
    CAD and MXN underperformed after US Trade Representative Lighthizer claimed that NAFTA negotiators are “nowhere near close to a deal”
    GBP’s initial rally on headlines (Telegraph) that the UK would be willing to stay in the customs union after Brexit was reversed yesterday when the Cabinet denied the news. While there continue to be reports around the customs union today, near-term focus is on the Irish border debate.
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3450 and resistance at 1.3625. EURGBP is supported in the 0.8690-0.8715 area while resistance comes in at 0.8780.
    Brent topped $80/b for the first time since November 2014 amid tensions in the Middle East and news from the International Energy Agency that global stock is decreasing.
    Given Venezuela’s production decline and Trump’s Iran sanctions, Barclays Research revised their Brent price forecast higher to $70/ b for 2018, and $65/ b for 2019.
    EURUSD traded in a relatively tight range yesterday as Italian election driven volatility tapered off. This was driven by amendments in the proposed government program of the Lega and 5SM that removed the Euro exit and the cancelation of Italy’s debt from the policy draft.

  3. #793
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 May 2018

    • Surging US 10y Treasury yields and rising oil prices fueled USD rally
    • EUR remains under pressure due to Italian political uncertainty
    • GBP vulnerable to Brexit related headlines


    US and core European equities were relatively well behaved last week despite US 10y Treasury yields rising up to 3.11% and oil prices approaching $80 per barrel. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rallied amid rising US Fed rate hike expectations bolstered by relatively resilient US data
    USD received further support from a US-China trade truce. While there has not been a formal agreement, communications have had a more cooperative tone
    Meanwhile, the EUR has suffered from ongoing political uncertainty in Italy. EURUSD ended last week 1.8% down and is pushing to new YTD lows this morning
    Lega and 5SM will likely propose a cabinet to President Mattarella as early as today, and current headlines focus on the appointment of the possible Premier. Further EUR downside may persist as we learn more
    GBPUSD also fell last week on the back of Brexit headlines concerning the Customs Union. Sterling will likely continue to be vulnerable to headline risk this week, but focus will also be on domestic data releases, including inflation (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and GDP numbers (Friday)
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3450. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0. 8720 with resistance at 0.8760-80
    EM remained under pressure last week, with EM dedicated bond and equity funds experiencing their worst week of outflows since the volatility spike in February. Notable underperformers include TRY, ZAR and BRL which all lost 3.5%

  4. #794
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 May 2018

    • US equities gain on easing tensions between the US and China
    • Focus on BoE MPC members this morning
    • Venezuela could face further sanctions


    US equities gained yesterday on the back of more conciliatory tones from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the US-China trade negotiations, while Asian stocks stalled possibly waiting for more details. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell as US yields retreated from their recent highs
    Geopolitical tensions seem to be easing as the US and China released a joint statement agreeing to “substantially reduce the US trade deficit in goods with China”
    In terms of next steps, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will visit China soon, and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit US this week
    GBP had an offered tone yesterday but traded range-bound overnight despite Boris Johnson reportedly warning that an early election would constitute a risk for the Conservatives (Bloomberg)
    Focus this morning will be on BoE MPC members Ramsden, Saunders, Vlieghe and Governor Carney testifying to the treasury select committee
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3390 and resistance at 1.3560 and 1.3625. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8690-0.8715 while resistance lies in the 0.8780-0.8810 area
    As Italy is moving closer towards a new government, focus turned to reports that 5SM and Lega suggested Law Professor Giuseppe Conte for the role of Prime Minister (Reuters). Barclays Research expect President Mattarella to make a decision on how to move forward this week, possibly as early as today
    In Venezuela, President Maduro was unsurprisingly proclaimed winner of Sunday’s elections, but this is being contested by the international community which is expected to retaliate with new sanctions. Indeed, reports (Bloomberg) suggested that President Trump had issued an order prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt, including PDVSA

  5. #795
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 May 2018

    • Asian and US equities dropped, JPY gained on concerns of a lack of progress in US-China trade talks
    • Aggressive TRY sell-off overnight
    • Focus on UK inflation data and US FOMC meeting minutes today

    Asian and US equities dropped yesterday after US President Trump announced his discomfort about the progress in the US-China trade talks, and suggested that the planned US-North Korea Summit may not happen on 12th June
    In FX, the general risk-off sentiment prompted JPY to rise against its major peers, whilst AUD and NZD came under pressure
    In EM, TRY sold-off aggressively and USDTRY reached a new historical high of 4.8200 overnight
    Barclays Research believes that “increased macro vulnerabilities, heightened fragility of corporate balance sheets in the face of TRY weakness, and eroding household confidence in the lira will eventually force the CBT to defend the currency”
    GBP gained initially yesterday on BoE Governor Carney’s hawkish speech to the Treasury Committee suggesting that that we should expect a gentle rise in interest rates starting this year. However, the rally was short-lived and GBPUSD weakened after Carney stated that UK households are £900 worse off today compared to pre-Brexit vote
    GBPUSD has continued to fall overnight and broke below 1.3390 this morning, ahead of the release of UK inflation data at 9.30
    Italian headlines continue to drive short-term noises in EURUSD and weigh on EUR crosses. Italian President Mattarella is expected to make a decision on the role of the new Prime Minister as early as today which will be closely watched

  6. #796
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 May 2018

    • FOMC minutes supported expectations for a June rate hike but rhetoric was deemed slightly dovish
    • Focus remains on Italy as 5 Star’s Giuseppe Conte sets about the task of trying to form a coalition
    • Yesterday’s data disappointed with euro area PMIs and UK inflation softer than expected


    The FOMC minutes appeared to indicate that the Fed was on course to raise rates in June, but 10y US Treasury yields fell below 3% in reaction, suggesting a market interpretation that any subsequent hikes would be gradual
    Focus remains on Italy as BTP spreads resumed their underperformance. 5 Star’s Giuseppe Conte accepted the task of forming a coalition government offered by President Mattarella. Government composition talks will continue for the next few days at the end of which PM-in-waiting Conte will report to the President
    A government between 5 Star and Lega seems likely at this stage; what is less clear is whether such a government would be able to deliver on election pledges that, according to our estimates, would cost about €100bn per year
    Weaker than expected Euro Area PMIs provided little reason for a retracement in EURUSD yesterday as we traded to fresh YTD lows 1.1676 (Bloomberg). ECB minutes will be watched today although may not contain any materially new information
    Slightly softer than expected UK inflation put pressure on Sterling yesterday and sent GBPUSD to fresh lows trading down to 1.3312 (Bloomberg) as the market continues to pare back rate hike expectations
    Today attention turns to UK retail sales, we expect UK retail sales to grow 0.9% m/m vs 1.1% m/m consensus. While retail sales should recover from weather-related weakness in the March report, we expect the underlying structural weakness to continue
    USDTRY fell sharply after the CBT held an extraordinary rate meeting and hiked the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 300bp, to 16.5%. The behavior of TRY and global sentiment will be determinants of potential CBT policy action at the 7 June MPC meeting
    Today we expect the SARB to keep South African rates on hold. The SARB will likely sound hawkish, which could stabilize the ZAR somewhat, while further ZAR depreciation would likely see markets price some likelihood of a hike this year

  7. #797
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 May 2018

    • Global equities under pressure on general risk-off sentiment
    • GBP pares initial gains on negative Brexit headlines
    • Focus on the 2nd release of UK GDP at 9.30 and US Durable Goods at 13.30

    Global equities closed lower yesterday amid rising concerns about geopolitics and trade. In FX, JPY gained initially in this environment but fell overnight for the first time in four days after North Korea indicated that they are still open for a meeting with the US despite the cancelled summit
    GBP rallied on the back of better-than-expected retail sales data yesterday, but pared its gains later on headlines that progress in negotiations on the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit has stalled (Bloomberg)
    Today’s focus is on any further Brexit-related headlines as well as the 2nd release of domestic GDP data at 9.30
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3300 ahead of 1.3000 and resistance at 1.3425 ahead of 1.3500. EURGBP likely remains in the 0.8725-0.8800 range, with the wider range between 0.8690 and 0.8840-75
    The ECB minutes released yesterday contained no surprises. The ECB noted that risks to the growth outlook were still broadly balanced and that weaker data was due to temporary factors, but that the slowly improving inflation is subject to weak price pressures
    TRY sold off yesterday, reversing some of its gains which it experienced due to the CBT’s emergency rate hike of 300bp on Wednesday. TRY behaviour and global sentiment will be closely watched as they will likely determine the CBT’s potential policy action at the 7 June MPC meeting
    The SARB kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and released a more hawkish statement as expected. Barclays Research believes that a key driver of future policy will be the impact of a weaker ZAR on inflation, as well as the second round effects of higher oil and VAT increases

  8. #798
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 May 2018

    • Italy Under The Spotlights

    Italy’s political turmoil is not over
    The market greeted Sergio Mattarella’s decision to reject euro-sceptic Paolo Savona as Finance Minister. After falling as much as 0.65% last Friday, the single currency bounced back on Monday morning and reached 1.1728, up 0.55% on the session. Similarly, selling pressures on Italian bonds eased significantly with the 2-year yield falling 15bps to 0.335%, while the 10-year one gave up 9.5bps and slid to 2.365%. On the equity market, the FTSE MIB jumped to 22,760 points, up 340 points or 1.50%.
    By blocking the formation of the government, Italy’s president played the card of prudence as he feared it could endanger the country’s membership in the European Union. Even though, the pressure seems to have eased for now, Italy is far from being out of trouble. Indeed, both the 5-Star Movement and the League called for fresh elections, arguing that Mattarella didn’t respect the decision of the people to go with a eurosceptic and anti-establishment coalition government. Sergio Mattarella would most likely face an impeachment request from the populist parties.
    Uncertainties may have eased in the short-term but in the longer-term this is a different story as the political mess may increase ahead of fresh election. For now, the single currency takes a breather as EUR/USD rose 0.40% to 1.17, while EUR/CHF climbed back to 1.16.

  9. #799
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 May 2018

    • Geopolitical headlines and political uncertainties in Europe weighed on equities
    • GBP fell on negative Brexit headlines
    • TRY saw worst week of performance since financial crisis


    Global equities came mostly under pressure last week due to worsening trade rhetoric and geopolitical headlines related to North Korea, while US 10y Treasury yields continued to rally. Additionally, Italy’s political turmoil weighed on risk sentiment, prompting EUR to fall and safe haven assets like JPY to rise against its major peers
    Crude oil dropped last week on the back of expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia would increase their production (Reuters)
    GBP fell last week on concerns over the progress in negotiations on the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit. GBPUSD continued to drop to six-month lows this morning as London returns from a bank holiday. This week’s attention is on the UK manufacturing PMI release and any further headlines
    TRY saw its worst week of performance since the financial crisis despite the CBT ‘s decision to raise the LLW O/N lending rate by 300bp to 16.5%. Further measures included allowing exporters to repay dollar-denominated loans in TRY and today’s announcement to simplify its monetary policy
    Italian equities fell 5% and CSD widened 40bps last week as the likelihood of an M5S and Lega government increased. Tensions escalated over the weekend as Professor Conte returned his mandate to form a government, which increased the chances of new elections
    The main risk associated with a return to polls, in addition to continuation of the current political paralysis, is the escalation of electoral rhetoric against the EU
    Elsewhere in the periphery, Spain’s current minority government is looking increasingly fragile as Ciudadanos, Spain’s largest opposition party, announced on Friday that it plans to back a no-confidence vote against the current Prime Minister unless he calls a snap election

  10. #800
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 May 2018

    • Global equities sold off as Italian crisis deepened
    • US-China trade tensions heightened as US moves ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports
    • GBP under continued pressure on negative Brexit headlines

    Global equities fell yesterday, especially in peripheral Europe, where indices were down 2-3% on the back of political upheaval in Italy and fresh broadsides in the US/ China trade war. Safe haven US Treasury bonds, the JPY, the USD and gold rallied, while EURUSD dropped to a 10-month low
    In Italy, snap elections became increasingly likely after premier-designate Cottarelli did not find an agreement on a new cabinet to present to the head of state. However, most recent local headlines (Huffington Post, La Stampa) suggest that 5Ms and Lega would cooperate to avoid new elections
    As a result, EURUSD sold off and fell to 1.1510 yesterday (Bloomberg). Our traders currently see resistance at 1.1650 ahead of 1.1730, while support comes in at 1.1500 and 1.1430
    US-China trade tensions heightened again after the White House stated yesterday afternoon that it is moving ahead with the $50bn worth of tariffs on Chinese goods and curbs to Chinese investment in sensitive technology, with the final list of targeted imports released on 15th June
    GBP fell yesterday amid reports that little progress has been made on the Irish Border conflict as the June summit and the votes in the House of Commons are moving closer (Bloomberg). GBPUSD will likely be prone to any further headlines as well as the 2nd release of US GDP at 13.30

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