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  1. #801
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 May 2018

    • Global equities and the EUR rallied on easing concerns on Italy’s politics
    • Central banks hit a hawkish tone
    • Focus on euro area flash inflation at 10.00 and US PCE at 13.30

    Global equities closed higher yesterday as the Italian political parties reengaged in talks hoping to avoid snap elections and form a government. The EUR also retraced on the back of the headlines, while the USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell throughout yesterday’s session
    In Italy, local media (Il Corriere della Sera, Ansa) reported renewed efforts of M5S and Lega to form a coalition government; M5S called their economist Savona to withdraw his candidacy for the Finance Ministry, thus increasing the chances that Lega’s Salvini accepts the new government
    The formation of such a coalition would be a short-term positive, thus headlines will be closely watched as a driver of EURUSD
    UK headlines were overshadowed by Italian politics once again and GBP price action was relatively muted. In data, UK consumer confidence rose marginally to -7, indicating that households were a little more upbeat in May
    Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, but dropped its cautious rhetoric. In Indonesia, Bank Indonesia increased policy rates for the second time in two weeks, and signaled a clear intent to manage currency volatility and preserve financial stability
    CAD rallied on back of the BoC’s more hawkish rhetoric, bringing it more in line with market expectations for future rate hikes (July rate hike is currently priced in ~90%)

  2. #802
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 June 2018

    • Fears of a trade war return as a market driver
    • Italy avoided snap elections and formed a new government
    • Focus on the US employment report at 13.30

    Global equities came under renewed pressure yesterday after the US announced tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from its largest trading partners. In FX, the flight in safe haven JPY was limited however, given the US measures were broadly expected
    After US Secretary of Commerce Ross announced tariffs on aluminum and steel imports on the EU, Canada and Mexico to be effective from 1st June, all partners announced they will retaliate
    The macroeconomic implication of these retaliating tariffs should be very limited overall, but an escalating tit for tat trade war could derail global growth
    Mexico’s Guajardo commented that this makes a NAFTA deal before July’s election difficult (Reuters), and both MXN and CAD dropped versus the USD as a result of the headlines
    In Italy, the populist parties M5S and Lega agreed on the formation of a new government, and President Mattarella approved the cabinet with Professor Conte as prime minister. This should bring some relief to Italian assets and the EUR as it likely decreases chances for a radical agenda
    Our traders currently see EURUSD support at 1.1640 ahead of 1.1590, while resistance lies at 1.1730 ahead 1.1830
    In contrast, Spain may be headed towards snap elections, and Parliament will vote on the no-confidence motion registered by the socialist party (PSOE) against the conservative PM Rajoy, which looks likely to pass

  3. #803
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 June 2018

    • Global equities gained on strong US employment report
    • Concerns in Italy have eased and EUR recovered partially
    • Spain’s PM Rajoy has been replaced by Pedro Sanchez


    Global equities have been rising since Friday, with Asian stocks climbing to 2 ½ weeks highs overnight, on the back of Friday’s strong US employment report. The resultant risk-on sentiment prompted USD and JPY to weaken against most major peers
    AUD was the notable outperformer overnight after stronger-than-expected retail sales
    Concerns about Italian politics, the main market driver last week, have eased after 5SM and Lega were able to form a government after handing the sensitive role of Finance Minister to Giovanni Tria. Italian government bond yields saw unprecedented volatility and, despite a sharp rally, ended the week 20-50bp wider across the curve
    EUR recovered partially at the end of last week, driven both by easing political uncertainties, and also by month-end rebalancing and higher euro area inflation
    US non-farm Payrolls surprised slightly to the upside on Friday, increasing 223k in May. This week’s focus will likely move away from data and turn to US trade policy and geopolitics; negotiations with China continue and the US is expected to announce the final list of tariffs by 15 June
    In Spain, Prime Minister Rajoy lost a vote of no-confidence and was forced to step down. A PSOE minority government headed by Pedro Sanchez has taken control of Spain, but is unlikely to gain sufficient support to pass the draft 2019 Fiscal Budget. For this and other reasons, we think snap elections are likely this year
    That said, the latest CIS poll suggests the outcome of snap elections would be a majority, centrist coalition that would be more conducive to reform than the previous minority government

  4. #804
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 June 2018

    • Global equities gained on improving risk sentiment
    • GBP under renewed pressure due to Brexit headlines
    • Focus on EU and UK PMIs today

    Global equities climbed higher yesterday and volatility fell further as broader risk sentiment was dominated by fundamentals rather than geopolitics. As concerns over Italy’s politics tentatively eased, EUR closed the day slightly higher and EGB spreads continued to move tighter
    GBP came under pressure on Brexit headlines once again, despite a short-lived rally on the back better-than-expected construction PMI data in the morning. Reports revealed that the House of Commons will vote on the Brexit bill on 12th June (The Times), giving them the chance to discuss 15 separate amendments made by the House of Lords (Reuters)
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3280 ahead of 1.3200, while resistance comes in at 1.3425 ahead of 1.3588. EURGBP remains in the 0.8690-0.8810 range ahead of 0.8625-0.8850
    The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.50% overnight, as expected. In terms of the monetary policy outlook, the RBA remains a bit cautious, a stance that likely supports Barclays Research’s view of the bank staying on hold in 2018, with the first rate hikes likely to take place only in Q1-19
    The RBA’s impact on AUD was limited; instead the currency was mainly driven higher by positive inventories data yesterday, and pared some of its gains overnight due to soft export data
    In data, US factory order declined 0.8% m/m in April, in line with our forecast. The weakness was driven mainly by a volatile category, and therefore we take little negative signal from this report

  5. #805
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 June 2018

    • Global equities showed mixed performance amid rising trade concerns
    • BP rallied on better-than-expected May services data
    • Focus remains on EURUSD after Italy headlines and speculation over ECB policy

    US and Asian equities closed mixed yesterday as concerns about protectionism weighed on market sentiment. While China offered to import an extra $25bio of US commodities and manufactured goods, further developments, in particular with regards to NAFTA negotiations, fueled concerns
    Trade concerns rose last night after US Director of the National Economic Council, Kudlow, reiterated Trump’s preference for splitting NAFTA talks and engaging in bilateral negotiations (Bloomberg)
    USD MXN rallied on the back of these headlines to reach highs not seen since February 2017
    The negative sentiment also spread to Brazil where BRL touched a two-year low despite increased intervention by the central bank
    CAD reversed its initial losses overnight, receiving support from reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin urged President Trump to exempt Canada from the Steel and Aluminum tariffs (ABC News)
    GBP outperformed in the G10 space yesterday, with GBPUSD rising over 0.6%, mainly supported by better-than-expected services data in May
    EUR was weighed down yesterday after Italy’s PM Conte announced a proposed fiscal expansion program. However, EUR reversed its initial losses and rallied on reports that the ECB may use its meeting on 14th June to communicate when to end its asset purchases programme (Bloomberg)
    ECB’s Praet confirmed this morning that next week’s policy meeting will be pivotal

  6. #806
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 June 2018

    • EUR strengthened yesterday on suggestions that the ECB may communicate an end to asset purchases at next week’s meeting
    • The Reserve Bank of India decided unanimously to hike rates for the first time since 2014
    • Focus today is on Turkey’s Central Bank meeting and euro area GDP


    European bond yields rose and the EUR strengthened after the ECB’s chief economist suggested that the ECB would begin formal discussions on ending asset purchases at its meeting next week
    Italian politics will continue to be important although we may need to await the budget for further information
    In the meantime, marginal upward pressure will likely remain on EURUSD which has started to break away from its tight correlation with BTP spreads. Next resistance 1.1850 ahead of 1.1900 with key resistance back towards 1.2000/1.2012 (200dma). Expect dips towards 1.1760 to find support short term ahead of 1.1715/20
    Focus today is on the Central Bank of Turkey’s meeting, where we would not rule out a 100bp hike to all policy rates
    In recent communication the CBT said it could implement further monetary policy tightening depending on inflation developments; headline inflation accelerated to 12.2% in May from 10.9% in April, driven by higher food and energy prices and FX pass-through
    The Reserve Bank of India decided unanimously to hike rates for the first time since 2014, increasing the repo rate 25bp, to 6.25%. Despite the move being fully priced in by fixed income markets, 10y Indian government bond yields have risen. The RBI maintained its “neutral” stance and in the coming months we expect monetary policy action to remain data-dependent but think the committee would likely prefer to stay on hold for the next one or two meetings
    Markets await the start of the G7 summit tomorrow, where tariffs are likely to be a key topic. The more combative US trade policy this year has raised the risks of a “bad” scenario of escalating trade retaliation

  7. #807
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 June 2018

    • Global equities mostly fell on speculation about ECB policy
    • EM, and in particular BRL, continued to drop
    • CBT unexpectedly raised all policy rates 125bp

    Global equities mostly fell during yesterday’s session on speculation that the ECB’s asset purchases could come to an end in the near future. In FX, JPY, EUR and GBP traded in a relatively tight range vs USD ahead of today’s G7 summit
    Focus was on Emerging markets yesterday, where BRL continued to underperform triggering additional central bank intervention. Sentiment has deteriorated on back of the recent truck drivers’ strike which revived concerns about the elections and fiscal sustainability
    Given that concerns about domestic politics are likely to persist, Barclays Research see an increased likelihood that the central bank will resort to a more hawkish rhetoric
    Turkey’s CBT hiked all policy rates 125bp yesterday, more than the 100bp forecasted by Barclays Research, taking another decisive step to stabilize TRY ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. The decision took markets by surprise and prompted USDTRY to drop by more than 2%
    In data, Euro area Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.4% q/q. The expenditure breakdown revealed that external trade, rather than investment, was the main reason behind the loss of momentum
    Barclays Research expect the euro area to continue to expand - slightly lower than in H2-17 – although risks are skewed to the downside given trade tensions and political risks
    Today marks the start of the G7 summit, where trade relations are likely to be a key topic. US President Trump’s reportedly accused Canada and France yesterday of imposing high tariffs on US goods (Reuters); markets will watch any headlines today given the increased risk of an escalation

  8. #808
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 June 2018

    • Limited market reaction to tumultuous G7 meeting
    • EUR gains as Italian Finance minister states no discussion of leaving the euro
    • Week ahead: Trump / Kim Jong Un summit, EU Withdrawal Bill vote, Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings

    Most Asian stocks pushed higher to begin the week, despite a tumultuous G7 meeting at the weekend, with President Trump claiming that he would instruct US representatives not to endorse the G7 communiqué
    CAD weakened on the open further to a dispute between US President Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
    Focus will now turn to the historic summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on Tuesday
    Also over the weekend, the Italian Finance minister stated that there was no discussion of leaving the euro in an interview with Corriere Della Sera, which has provided support for EUR
    Investors will watch for the ECB meeting on Thursday, where Barclays Research expect that the ECB will discuss the end of asset purchases, but won’t communicate its decision until the July policy meeting. The bar for a hawkish ECB surprise is now arguably higher following last week’s communication
    In EURUSD 1.1715 the short term level to the downside and 1.1830/50 key resistance to the topside ahead of the key 1.2000/ 1.2011 (200 dma)
    In the US, while a 25bp Fed rate hike is widely expected, Fed communication and projections could still move markets. The median forecast of three rate hikes in 2018 will likely remain unchanged, but the risk that it moves higher, to show four hikes, is high. The occurrence of this may be perceived as modestly hawkish, benefiting the USD somewhat
    In the UK, Barclays Research expect this week’s plethora of data (inflation, labour market and retail sales) to disappoint relative to consensus and therefore expect GBP to underperform
    Separately, while the House of Commons vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill (Tuesday) will generate headlines, it will likely provide little in terms of progress at this stage

  9. #809
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 June 2018

    • Risk trades well further to Trump-Kim summit
    • Sterling falls on weaker UK activity data
    • Focus on EU Withdrawal Bill vote and US inflation data today


    Risk traded well and the JPY weakened as investors await further details of a “comprehensive” and historic document signed by US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
    Given the number of issues (nuclear program, ballistic missile program, economic sanctions, etc), Barclays Research expect both parties to outline confidence-building measures for future talks, but stop short of any significant decisions. Investors await the press conference scheduled for 9am LDN for further detail
    GBP came under pressure after poor UK activity data, with GBP/USD falling to a low of 1.3345 after the release
    Industrial production contracted a sharp -0.8m/m in April; the weakest reading in a year. Manufacturing production was the main drag, contributing -1pp to the fall in IP; at -1.4% m/m and -0.5% 3m/3m, this is the sharpest decline seen since 2012. The Trade Balance also deteriorated sharply with export volumes falling by 6.1% m/m.
    GBPUSD support now at 1.3345 ahead of 1.3200 with resistance at 1.3475 ahead of 1.3600 area. EURGBP testing top of the range at 0.8835-50 with support at 0.8750 ahead of 0.8690
    In the UK today, the EU Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons where voting will begin on 15 amendments from the House of Lords. Focus will fall in particular on the meaningful vote, Customs Union and EEA membership amendments
    On the data front today, the key release is US inflation data. Barclays Research look for May CPI to rise by 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting

  10. #810
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 June 2018

    • Equity markets little moved after US / North Korea summit
    • UK Government survives Brexit Bill votes
    • Focus on UK inflation data and FOMC this evening


    Equity markets were little moved on news from the US / North Korea summit, as investors now look to the Federal Reserve rate decision this evening
    Barclays Research expect the committee to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25bp, to 1.75-2.0%, justified by recent data that suggest acceleration in economic activity and robust employment
    The May US inflation report, published yesterday, showed headline CPI rose 2.8% y/y, supported by strong increases in energy prices
    The USD caught a bid tone which continued overnight further to headlines that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is considering holding a press conference after every policy meeting rather than every other meeting (WSJ)
    In the UK, the Government succeeded in persuading the rebel alliance of Tory MPs not to vote through the Lords amendment on a meaningful vote (324 to 298)
    Voting continues today, but is expected to be less relevant to markets than UK inflation data this morning. Barclays Research expect UK headline CPI inflation to come in at 2.3% y/y in May (up 0.1pp from April) and core CPI to ease to 2.0% y/y
    GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3345 ahead of 1.3280 and 1.3200 with resistance at 1.3475 ahead of 1.3600. EURGBP 0.8830-50 resistance area with support at 0.8750 ahead of 0.8690

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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