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  1. #711
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 18 January 2018

    US and European Bons Moving Modestly
    Moves on the US and European bond markets were modest today. The Bund future traded in a narrow sideways range between 160.78 and 160.97, maintaining yesterday's gain. The ECB warning on the potential impact of a strong euro on inflation and thus on ECB policy, maybe helped to protect the downside in European bonds. The German 10-yr yield is little changed at 0.55%. The very long end outperforms slightly. At the same time, US Treasuries slightly underperformed Bunds, with rates rising 1-2.5 bps across the curve. The 2-yr yield set a new cycle top at 2.04%. The moves were mostly technically inspired. Fed's Kaplan advocating a scenario of at least three rate hikes maybe helped to put a floor for US yields at the short end of the curve. Intra-EMU spread changes versus Germany were mostly limited between -1 bp (Greece) and +2 bps (Italy).
    EUR/USD spiked briefly north of 1.23 early in Asia this morning. This time the gain could not be sustained and EUR/USD soon returned back lower in the 1.22 big figure. The quick reversal had some of the characteristics of a ST exhaustion move. The dollar became better bid across the board. After ECB's Villeroy yesterday, ECB members Constancio and Nowotny also warned that a sudden rise of the euro could complicate the ECB's efforts to bring inflation back to target. December EMU inflation was confirmed at a soft 1.4% for the headline inflation and 0.9% for the core. This was no surprise, but it reinforced the case of the ECB speakers. EUR/USD tested the 1.22 mark at the start of the US trading session. The 2-yr US/German interest rate differential rose to a cycle top of over 2.60 %. The 10-yr difference was little changed around 2%. Modest losses on global equity markets after yesterday's sharp intraday decline on WS also contained the risk of further, disorderly USD losses. US December industrial production was strong, but mostly due to growth at utilities and in mining. The reaction of the dollar was limited. EUR/USD trades near 1.2225. USD/JPY is changing hands around 110.75.
    Sterling basically followed the broader trends in the euro and the dollar amid an empty UK eco calendar. EUR/GBP drifted south in line with the overall euro correction. The pair trades currently just above 0.8850. Cable is also trading of the overnight top, but levels around 1.38 can be considered as a sign of sterling resilience. BoE Saunders, from the hawkish wing of the BoE, saw chance of faster pay growth. Over time this might translate into faster BoE rate hikes.


  2. #712
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 January 2018

    • US equities and the USD came under pressure on concerns of a government shutdown
    • GBPUSD rallied above 1.3900, aided by a soft USD
    • SARB and CBT kept policy unchanged

    Market moves were muted yesterday. US equities closed lower and the USD declined on concerns of a US government shutdown. Overnight, the House passed the spending bill in a 230-197 initial vote, ahead of today’s midnight deadline where government funding is due to end without a new deal. The vote is now headed toward an additional step in the Senate, where Republicans will require at least a dozen Democratic votes to get the bill through (Reuters).
    GBP continued to trade with an underlying bid tone with GBPUSD breaking through the 1.3900 resistance level, aided by a soft USD. This is despite President Macron making a clear and firm stance at a UK-France Summit yesterday, regarding the UK’s contributions to the EU post-Brexit, granting no “special access” for Britain’s financial services industry to the EU single market after Brexit. Elsewhere in UK politics, our Brexit survey showed that investors have taken some comfort from recent advances in the UK/EU negotiations.
    Focus turns to UK retail sales today, where we expect it to contract 2% m/m in December.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3800 ahead of 1.3660 (Bloomberg 2017 highs) and resistance at 1.3940 and 1.4000.
    In emerging markets, central banks in South Africa and Turkey left policy unchanged. The SARB kept rates on hold at 6.75% and the rhetoric was neutral, lacking the dovish tilt that many expected. ZAR rallied to its strongest level since June 2015 (vs. USD), despite some selective profit taking after the SARB. Meanwhile, the CBT’s hawkish stance also saw TRY higher (vs. USD), rallying c. 1.7% yesterday.
    Looking ahead to this weekend, focus will shift to Germany on Sunday as the SPD delegates will decide on whether to enter into coalition negotiations with CDU and CSU.

  3. #713
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 January 2018

    It's Never Sunny In Washington D.C.
    Last week the US dollar was trying to perform it's best Lazarus impersonation but fell well short on all accounts not only hampered by dwindling long-term sentiment but also feeling the weight from the latest political fracas in Washington. However, the dollar has not weakened off to dramatically this morning after Shutdown headlines with USDJPY off about 20 pips to 110.60 at the Wellington Open. Sure the government shutdown remains in focus, but it's not a significant USD driver as it presents only a minuscule shock to risk appetite
    Not unexpectedly SPD agreed to start formal coalition talks with Merkel; a decision which moves Germany closer to form a new government.By accepting to pursue further discussions and thereby dramatically improving the chances for another grand coalition, a temporary calm should engulf the EU political landscape. However, German political developments were not thought to be a significant disruptor, so the market focus now pivots to this weeks ECB. A bit of everything for everyone this week with, politics, central banks earnings and Trump in Davos could be this weeks marquee event.
    The focus will be on Davos and the World Economic Forum that will take place from Tuesday to Friday with President Trump due to deliver a keynote address on the final day. Anytime Trump takes the podium, especially when he's the headline event, the chance for market turmoil elevates two-fold. This time around, there are lots of gossips that he could use this platform to up the protectionist ante, but so far other than pulling out of TPP the risk of protectionism under President Trump has mostly proved a red herring. Stay tuned! However, the big currency mover this morning was the Turkish Lira as USDTRY moved +1.5 %after Turkey launched airstrikes in Syria against US-backed Kurdish fighters.

  4. #714
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 23 January 2018

    • Global equity markets continue to rally
    • GBPUSD briefly hit 1.4000 overnight
    • The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected

    Global equity markets continued to rally yesterday led by US stocks making new record highs after the US Senate reached a temporary agreement to end the government shutdown. Funding was extended until 8 February but USD was largely unchanged.
    Asian equity markets have followed their US counterparts higher overnight with the Nikkei 225 hitting a 26-year high and the Hang Seng reaching a new all-time high.
    GBP continued to strengthen yesterday as investors digested Macron’s more accommodating stance to Brexit as expressed in an interview over the weekend. GBPUSD traded above 1.4000 for the first time since the Brexit vote and EURGBP broke below its recent support level at 0.8800.
    GBPUSD support now comes in at 1.3925 with resistance still at 1.4000 as it failed to sustain a break above that level overnight. Meanwhile, EURGBP support is found at 0.8690 with 0.8800 now acting as a resistance level
    The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged overnight as expected, but raised its assessment of current and expected inflation. JPY rallied initially on the news but has since retraced most gains.
    Barclays Research expects the BoJ to ” …retain its current easing stance through H1-18, then take its first step toward normalization with revisions to its yield curve controls in Q3”.
    The sixth round of negotiations on NAFTA resumes today in Montreal and a joint press conference has been scheduled for 29 January. The US administration is expected to shift its focus to trade now that tax cuts have been passed and a flare up of tension could have an impact on markets.
    In South Africa, the ANC appears to have agreed on Zuma’s exit as South African President. Zuma’s successor, Ramaphosa, is already beginning to deliver on his promises to tackle corruption and improve governance which has benefitted ZAR.

  5. #715
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 24 January 2018

    • Global stock market rally takes a breather whilst USD falls
    • GBPUSD climbed back above 1.4000 overnight
    • UK November labour market report in focus this morning

    The rally in global stocks took a bit of a breather yesterday with US equity indices closing flat or marginally higher on the day. US Treasury yields largely fell and USD continued to drift lower with the DXY (USD index) dropping to the lowest level in three years.
    Commodities had a positive day led by natural gas futures which jumped by around 5% as colder than expected weather in the US spurred demand.
    GBP continued to trade firmly yesterday despite a brief dip following comments from the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier indicating that the UK still has to come up with a solution to the Irish border. GBPUSD climbed back above 1.4000 overnight mainly as a result of broad based USD weakness and EURGBP held below the recent support level of 0.8800.
    GBPUSD support now comes in at 1.3900 ahead of 1.3800 with resistance at 1.4100. In EURGBP, support is found at 0.8690 with 0.8800 acting as short-term resistance.
    Focus today will be on the UK labour market report for November released at 9.30. Barclays Research expects real wage growth to remain in negative territory with nominal average weekly earnings growth expected to come in at 2.5% whilst the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
    This morning we will also get Flash Euro area PMIs where Barclays Research expect a further improvement in business confidence. Continued strength here is likely to draw attention to the ECB’s press conference scheduled for tomorrow.

  6. #716
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 25 January 2018

    • Global stocks mixed whilst USD remained under pressure
    • UK labour market data surprised to the upside
    • Today focus is on the ECB’s policy announcement at 12.45

    US equity markets were mixed yesterday whilst European equity indices predominantly fell. USD weakened across the board partly fueled by the recent aggressive US trade stance and comments by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that a weaker dollar is not a concern.
    GBP and BRL were the top performers in the FX space and crude oil rallied to the highest level since early 2015 as inventory drawdowns in the US continued.
    UK labour market data surprised to the upside yesterday as the job market grew by 102k in November further building on the recent positive GBP sentiment. However, nominal wage growth remained unchanged despite an uptick in core earnings.
    The pace of the move higher in GBPUSD yesterday and overnight has caught many by surprise but focus today is likely to fall on EURGBP given the ECB meeting and the fact that EURGBP is hovering just above the 6-month low around 0.8690.
    GBPUSD short-term support comes in at 1.4170 whilst resistance is found at the overnight high of 1.4328. In EURGBP, support comes in at 0.8690 with resistance at 0.8740.
    BRL and Brazilian assets outperformed yesterday after a court upheld former President Lula’s corruption conviction which will make it harder for him to run for president this year.
    Today’s focus lies on the ECB’s meeting and market participants will be looking for hints of upcoming forward guidance changes.
    Barclays Research expects Draghi to keep policy unchanged today. Any changes to forward guidance are not expected until April with interest rate hikes to start in December.

  7. #717
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 26 January 2018

    Global core bonds lost ground today with German Bunds significantly underperforming US Treasurie
    Global core bonds lost ground today with German Bunds significantly underperforming US Treasuries. ECB Draghi confirmed strong EMU growth momentum which is an upside risk in 2018 to current forecasts. They strengthen the ECB's believe in a return of inflation to target. This optimistic growth and inflation expectations were sufficient to start a new sell-off in the Bund even if Draghi tried to downplay the pace of changes to its communication strategy. Changes on the German yield curve range between -0.7 bps (30-yr) and +5.2 bps (5-yr). The German 2-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr yields tested key resistance levels, respectively at -0.55%, 0.05% and 0.62%. The US yield curve flattens with yield changes varying between +1.6 bps (2-yr) and -1.2 bps (30-yr).
    The decline of the dollar reaccelerated temporary just before the start of European trading. EUR/USD set a new cycle top and USD/JPY filled bids south of 109. However, some calm returned. EUR/USD settled in the lower half of the 1.24 big figure. USD/JPY hovered close to, but mostly slightly north of 109. At the ECB press conference Draghi mentioned the volatility in the exchange rate as a source of uncertainty and that it could impact the chances of the ECB reaching its target. The ECB president also indicated that some communication on FX was not in line with what was agreed at the level of the IMF. However, it didn't to prevent a resumption of the rise of the euro. EUR/USD jumped north of 1.25 during the press conference. At the same time, USD selling also reaccelerated in other USD cross rates. USD/JPY slipped (temporary?) below 109. AUD/USD traded north of 0.81. The trade-weighted dollar dropped more than half a big figure (currently 88.60 area).The euro rise/decline of the dollar slowed toward the end of the press conference, but the USD loss remains substantial. Conclusion: the ECB is unhappy with the rise of the euro, but its rhetoric was unable to stop this. At the same time, underlying USD weakness remains in place going into tomorrow's speech of the US president Trump in Davos.

  8. #718
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 29 January 2018

    • Asian equities pared earlier gains after US equities closed higher on Friday
    • GBP declined on concerns of PM May’s Leadership ahead of today’s General Affairs Council meeting
    • Focus on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

    Asian equities pared earlier gains after US equities closed last week up after strong earnings data boosted risk sentiment. Last week’s key theme was a weaker USD across the board, which was partially spurred by Treasury secretary Mnuchin’s allusion to the benefits of a weaker currency. GBP was among the biggest beneficiaries with GBPUSD trading above 1.43 on conciliatory rhetoric about the prospects for a soft Brexit.
    UK Q4 GDP printed stronger than expected on Friday (0.5% q/q vs. 0.4% q/q consensus) with the rebound driven by the service sector. In the US, Q4 GDP printed marginally lower than expected (2.6% q/q vs. 3.0% q/q consensus) but confirmed our expectations of yet another quarter of buoyant growth at 2.6%.
    GBP has come under pressure at the start of the week on concerns about the state of the Conservative Party, with several reports discussing the weakness of Prime Minister May within her party. Further criticism of the Prime Minister’s Leadership came after Trump commented that he would take a “tougher” approach to the Brexit negotiations.
    Today the EU General Affairs Council will meet to determine the details on the Brexit transition period, and is likely to mandate the Commission to open transition talks and to confirm the recent easing in concerns about a disorderly Brexit.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.4083 ahead of 1.4000; EURGBP support is at 0.8685, with short term resistance at 0.8800 ahead of 0.8925.
    Looking to the week ahead, the key event is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (there is no press conference) ahead of the US employment report on Friday. We believe the Fed is likely to reiterate strong activity and labor market data, and continue to expect the Fed to hike by 25bp in March, June, September and December.

  9. #719
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 30 January 2018

    Sharp Losses For Pound, Investor Eye Carney Speech
    The British pound has posted sharp losses to kick off the week. In Monday's North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4035, down 0.91% on the day. On the release front, there are no British events. In the US, Personal Spending slowed to 0.4%, shy of the estimate of 0.6%. On Tuesday, the UK releases Net Lending to Individuals. In the US the key indicator is CB Consumer Confidence and President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address.
    The US dollar continues to struggle, and the pound jumped on the bandwagon, jumping 4.0% in January. Last week, GBP/USD pushed above 1.43 for the first time since June 2016. The greenback didn't get any favors from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who said that the US had no problem with a weak US dollar. That comment pushed the dollar sharply lower, with the pound gaining 1.5% on Wednesday.
    The EU has drafted guidelines regarding the transition period after Britain leaves the European Union in 2019. The European proposal calls for Britain to abide by EU rules, including freedom of movement, during the transition period which would last until 2020. However, it's unlikely that the May government will simply accede to this proposal. Britain wants a longer transition period as well as say in the makeup of the transition period.
    In the US, recent GDP releases have pointed to strong growth of 3% or higher. This resulted in some disappointment on Friday, as Advance GDP came in at 2.6%, short of the estimate of 3.0%. The economy grew 2.3% in 2017, compared to 1.6% in 2016. Growth in Q4 was affected by stronger consumer spending, which led to a surge in imports. At the same time, the increase in consumer spending also boosted inflation, as the personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed prefers to use, rose 1.9% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.3% in Q3. A strong US economy has boosted the manufacturing sector, as durable goods orders in December hit 2.9%, crushing the estimate of 0.6%. This was the highest gain in six months, and helped make 2017 a banner year. Durable goods orders increased 5.8% in 2017, the sharpest expansion since 2011.

  10. #720
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 31 January 2018

    • USD declines after President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union speech
    • Bank of England Governor Carney portrayed a relatively hawkish tone
    • Focus on the FOMC meeting today

    Asian equity markets reversed earlier gains overnight and 10y UST yields ticked lower but remain close to the highs since April 2014. NAFTA talks concluded in Montreal, the US did not withdraw from negotiations - the seventh round is now scheduled for the end of February. US equities and the USD extended declines after President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union speech in Washington.
    President Trump’s speech provided little details on his economic plans such as infrastructure and workforce developments, but enforcement of immigration and trade rules were emphasized. Elsewhere the US Treasury decided not to impose new sanctions to Russia. Market reaction was positive, but uncertainty over the outlook for sanctions remains as Congress could pressure for further action.
    In data yesterday, US consumer confidence inched higher in January and UK GfK consumer confidence rebounded four points to -9 (previously -13) after months of steady declines. However, UK consumer sentiment is still much weaker than a year ago (-5) and remains in negative territory. Elsewhere, euro area flash Q4 17 GDP grew by 0.6% q/q (previously 0.7% q/q in Q3 and Q2 17).
    Bank of England Governor Carney spoke yesterday afternoon and portrayed a relatively hawkish tone. He acknowledged that Brexit uncertainty remains, but commented that that the BoE “move[s] into a more conventional area for monetary policy, where the focus is increasingly on returning inflation sustainably to target over an appropriate horizon”.
    GBP experienced a volatile session yesterday as domestic political headlines saw GBPUSD break below 1.4000 resistance (key psychological level) before the pair recovered on a soft USD. GBPUSD support is now at 1.4080, 1.4000 and 1.3980 with resistance at 1.4350.
    Focus turns to the FOMC today, in what is Chair Janet Yellen’s final meeting before her term ends. We expect no policy changes from the FOMC. Instead we expect that the January FOMC meeting will largely be a non-event for markets, as the committee continues to assess the degree to which disinflationary trends are persistent. We continue to expect the Fed to hike by 25bp in March, June, September and December.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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