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  1. #721
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 1 February 2018

    • Global equity markets recovered and the USD strengthened yesterday
    • Fed kept policy unchanged at yesterday’s meeting but comments were viewed as hawkish
    • Focus today on global manufacturing PMIs

    Asian equity markets recovered from a three day sell-off overnight following a late rally in US equities, which saw the S&P 500 end January with the best start to the year since 1997. The USD strengthened against major currencies whilst 10y UST yields remained near the highest level since 2014 after the Fed acknowledged stronger growth with heightened confidence that inflation will rise to the 2% target, setting the stage for a March interest-rate hike.
    Elsewhere in FX, USDCNY fell to its lowest level after the People’s Bank of China fixed the currency to the lowest level since 2015.
    In the FOMC’s January statement, the Fed unanimously kept policy unchanged in an outcome that was widely expected. The Fed “…expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate…” which opens the door to four hikes in 2018, in our view. We continue to expect the Fed to hike by 25bp in March, June, September and December.
    GBP had a choppy day yesterday declining on further Brexit concerns after a trade deal for the UK financial sector was rejected, but later it reversed its losses on month-end flow.
    GBPUSD price action remains aggressive this morning as the pair rallied above 1.4250; our traders see support at 1.4120 and 1.3980 with resistance at 1.4350.
    In EM, the Bank of Thailand turned incrementally more positive on growth, raising its growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018; but we continue to expect it to refrain from raising rates in 2018.
    Today’s key data will be global manufacturing PMIs. In the US we expect the ISM manufacturing index to edge lower to 59.0, still firmly in expansionary territory. In the euro area, the “flash” reading of PMIs pointed to continued strength in activity. Despite this, euro area headline inflation eased to 1.3% y/y in yesterday’s release, while core edged up 0.1pp to 1.0% y/y.

  2. #722
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 2 February 2018

    • Global equity markets fell whilst EUR strengthened
    • GBPUSD price action dominated by USD sentiment
    • Focus today on US nonfarm payrolls at 13.30 London time

    Global equity markets generally fell yesterday led by the German DAX which dropped by almost 1.5% whilst government bond yields rose. The German 10y yield climbed to the highest level since 2015 amid ECB tightening expectations which lifted EUR to new multi-year highs versus USD.
    Asian equity indices are mostly lower as of midday local time and JPY fell overnight after the BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to buy JGBs in order to keep yields contained.
    GBPUSD price action was dominated by weaker USD sentiment yesterday as Brexit negotiations have fallen out of the spotlight for now with PM May still in China.
    UK manufacturing PMI continued to edge lower from the multi-year highs reached in Nov-17 after output and new orders both declined but the print had little impact on markets.
    GBPUSD short-term support comes in at 1.4190 ahead of 1.420 with resistance at 1.4280 and 1.4350. In EURGBP, support remains at 0.8685 with resistance at 0.8835.
    In Germany, the IG Metall union has called for their members to go on strike after employers refused to enact the union’s demand for an 8% pay rise over a 27 month period and a reduction in weekly work hours to 28 from 35. The strike is expected to impact around 260 companies.
    Today’s key event in markets is the release of US nonfarm payrolls at 13.30 London time. Barclays Research expects a gain of 175k in the headline number, a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.0% and a rise in average hourly earnings by 2.6% y/y.
    A strong job report today could vindicate Barclays Research’s out of consensus call for four Fed rate hikes this year versus the median FOMC dot plot of three hikes and market pricing of less than three hikes.

  3. #723
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 5 February 2018

    • Global equity markets sold off amid central bank tightening fears
    • Key Conservative MPs put further pressure on PM May
    • Focus on UK services PMI this morning

    Global equity markets came under heavy selling pressure last week after US labour market data came in stronger than expected spurring speculation of a speed up in the Fed’s hiking cycle. The S&P 500 suffered its largest intra-day decline in more than a year dropping by more than 2% and the 10y US Treasury yield hit a fresh four-year high after rising above 2.86%.
    USD rallied across the board on the back of the better than expected US labour data and USD seems to have found a floor for now after having declined steadily throughout January.
    US nonfarm payrolls for January came in at 200k (consensus: 180k) and average hourly earnings also surprised to the upside coming in at 2.9% y/y (consensus: 2.6% y/y).
    This week, US politics is expected to come back into investors’ focus as the current bill to keep the government funded expires on Thursday.
    GBP softened towards the end of last week as Brexit hardliners within the Conservative party including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson put further pressure on PM May to take a tougher stance in negotiations with the EU. May faces two crucial cabinet meetings this week and a failure to agree on how to pursue the negotiations with the EU could weigh on GBP.
    This morning we get UK services and composite PMI at 9.30. Barclays Research expects services PMI to print unchanged “…torn between weaker consumer facing business and resilient professional services…”.
    GBPUSD support comes in at 1.4080 ahead of 1.3980 with resistance at 1.4275 and 1.4350. For EURGBP, support is found at 0.8685 with resistance at 0.8930.
    Looking to the week ahead, the key event is the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday where Barclays Research expects no change to monetary policy. There will also be interest rate decisions by a plethora of other central banks, including the RBA on Tuesday, the NBP, BCB, RBI and RBNZ on Wednesday, Banxico and BSP on Thursday.

  4. #724
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 6 February 2018

    • Global equity markets continue to decline sharply
    • GBPUSD came under pressure as GBP sentiment turned
    • Euro area PMIs show strong fundamentals

    Global equity markets suffered another sharp decline yesterday in a continuation of the slump from last Friday. The S&P 500 finished the day 4.1% lower, the largest percentage intra-day drop since 2011, and coupled with the losses last Friday, the record bull run in US stocks of more than 400 trading days without a 5% correction has now been broken.
    Asian equity markets have followed their US counterparts lower and the Nikkei 225 had fallen by around 5% as of midday local time. In FX markets, JPY and USD rallied driven by safe haven demand whilst the US 10y Treasury yield fell to around 2.75%.
    GBP traded with an offered tone throughout yesterday’s session starting after another miss in UK PMI data, this time for services (53.0 versus consensus: 54.1). Concerns about a potential breakdown of EU-UK Brexit negotiations also weighed on GBP and comments from key officials in the last few days indicate that reaching a transition deal will likely be a very difficult process.
    GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3935 ahead of 1.3800 with short-term resistance at 1.4050. In EURGBP, support is now found at 0.8850 and 0.8685 with resistance at 0.8930.
    Euro area final composite PMI for January was slightly better than the flash estimate and came in at 58.8, the highest level since June 2006. ECB president Draghi spoke at the European Parliament yesterday where he warned that recent FX volatility could make it harder to reach the ECB’s inflation target and highlighted the difficulty of reaching a Brexit transition deal.
    Elsewhere, the RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected and struck a positive tone on growth. Barclays Research expects the RBA to raise the policy rate by 25bps at its meeting in August and a further 25bps at the November meeting.

  5. #725
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 7 February 2018

    Clarity The Catalyst
    The turnaround in stock markets Tuesday was a demonstration of how a clear narrative can help market participants take risk. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged. Japanese earnings data is due up next. We highlighted the implosion of the short-volatility ETF/ETNs yesterday as the event was unfolding. The worries continued into the start of European trading and the US equity open but the fears faded late and the S&P 500 added 46 points to 2695.
    A big reason for the bounce back is that the VIX narrative helped market participants understand what happened. The only thing scarier than a market selloff on news is a selloff on a mystery. The unknown could be anything.
    Short of nuclear war, the market is more comfortable once it has a sense of what happened. That immediately helps to limit contagion and highlight which areas of the market are safe. That's what slowly continues to unfold and it's good news for a continued to rebound in risk trades.
    At the same time, the rout was also an opportunity to test virtually every market. One trend that stands out is how quickly Treasury yields rebounded. US 10s finished up 9.6 bps to 2.80% Tuesday and is now just 8 bps from the cycle high. That highlights a high risk of climbing to 3% in short order.
    In FX, EUR/USD held up well through the storm in a signal of continuing strong demand.Looking ahead, the main data point in Asia is December Japanese labor cash earnings at 0000 GMT. The consensus is for a 0.5% y/y rise and it will take a big miss to generate any market moves.

  6. #726
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 8 February 2018

    • US equity markets stabilize whilst US Treasury yields rise on Senate spending agreement
    • The CDU and SPD reached a Grand Coalition agreement in Germany
    • Today’s focus will be on the BoE meeting at 12.00

    US equity markets stabilized yesterday following the tumultuous start to the week and the Dow Jones closed largely flat on the day whilst the S&P 500 fell around 0.5%. US Treasury yields resumed their upward trend and the US 10y jumped back above 2.80% after US Senate leaders reached a bipartisan agreement to increase spending by almost $300bn over the next two years.
    Rising US Treasury yields helped support USD which outperformed on the day whilst CNY fell after Chinese data showed a shrinking current account surplus amid a jump in imports.
    GBPUSD traded back below 1.3900 yesterday in line with the broad-based USD strength seen across FX markets. Given no political developments or significant UK data releases, GBPUSD gyrations have almost exclusively been driven by USD sentiment this week but GBP should garner more attention today amid the BoE meeting and Inflation Report at noon.
    In Germany, the SPD and the CDU reached a Grand Coalition agreement but the announcement had little impact on FX markets even though it should be EUR positive. SPD members will vote on the proposal and the results will be released on 4th March – the same day as the Italian elections.
    Elsewhere, the central bank of Brazil cut the Selic rate 25bp and announced the end of the easing cycle as inflation is converging to target. The RBI and the RBNZ kept policy unchanged as expected.
    Focus today will be on the BoE meeting interest rate decision and inflation report at noon. Barclays Research expects the bank to “…remain in wait-and-see mode and refrain from revising its communication in the absence of relevant events or data since its last inflation report...”.
    In addition, Barclays Research maintains its call for a 25bps hike in November whilst market pricing implies at least one hike by November with a c.55% chance of a hike already in May.

  7. #727
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 9 February 2018

    Awaiting US House To Approve Spending Bill To Reopen Govt
    Market volatility remained elevated as concern simmer that central banks were not keeping up with global economic growth.
    Senate passed a two-year budget deal in the wee hours of Friday morning; after the government was forced into a technical shut down at midnight due to a political stunt by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY); Government would reopen once the bill cleared the House in the predawn hours.
    Senate approved a far-reaching budget deal that would reopen the federal government and boost spending by hundreds of billions of dollars.
    Bank of Canada (BOC) Wilkins: high household debt was the largest vulnerability to the Canadian economy.
    Mexico Central Bank raised the Overnight Rate by 25bps to 7.50% (as expected) for its 12th hike in the current tightening.
    European Indices trade mostly lower but off the session lows after a rebound in US Futures overnight after sharp falls yesterday. Increased outlook for higher rates in the UK weigh on the FTSE, as the index under performs. Ont he corporate front Maersk trades lower after Q4 results; Ceconomy also trades lower after a fall in profits. To the upside Trinity Mirror outperforms after its trading update, Flow Traders trades over 10% higher after strong y/y growth. In the M&A space Hogg Robinson trades sharply higher after receiving a bid from American Express Global, representing a 54% premium to prior close. Looking ahead earners include PG&E, Tenneco and Moody's.
    Risk aversion sentiment remained on the front burner but the major FX pairs stayed locked within recent ranges. The USD maintaining its recent strength as some analysts believe the Fed might be behind the curve on rates. One analyst noted that given how sensitive markets were to a slightly hawkish BoE yesterday, one can only imagine the turmoil on Wednesday next week if US CPI comes in ahead of expectations.

  8. #728
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 12 February 2018

    • US equities ended their worst week in two years with the S&P falling 5.2%
    • GBPUSD gains after a hawkish Bank of England are short-lived
    • Markets focus on President Trump’s budget proposal today

    Market volatility picked up sharply last week, as signs of an initial pickup in wages, economic data resilience and the hawkish tilt of the FOMC led to expectations of faster Fed tightening. Nevertheless, after a stronger USD throughout the course of last week, the USD declined late Friday on concerns about President Trump’s budget proposal. Meanwhile, US equities ended their worst week in two years with the S&P 500 falling c. 5.2% whilst 10y UST yields finished the week at 2.85%.
    After the Bank of England delivered a hawkish hold last week, moving away from the “gradual and limited” guidance, gains in GBPUSD were relatively short lived as a USD bid tone from further structural reductions of USD short positioning overwhelmed. Elsewhere in data, Visa’s UK spending index declined 1.2% in January, previously a 1.0% (y/y) decline in December.
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3765 ahead of 1.3660, with resistance 1.4000 ahead of 1.4070. EURGBP support at 0.8730 ahead of 0.8685, with resistance at 0.8820 and 0.8970.
    In the US, the partial government shutdown ended as a 240-186 vote in the House passed spending legislation on Friday, following a 71-28 vote in the Senate hours earlier. The two year agreement will boost Federal spending $300bn and suspends the debt ceiling for one year.
    With the USD now back under pressure amid concerns on the US budget, focus turns to President Trump’s budget proposal today which may prove to neglect the Republican Party’s goal to balance the budget within the next 10 years.
    Looking to the week ahead, inflation numbers may be in particular focus with inflation data from the UK and US on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

  9. #729
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 February 2018

    • South Africa’s ruling ANC’s national executive committee orders President Jacob Zuma to resign
    • UK house prices print their first annual decline in six years
    • Focus on UK inflation this morning

    Market sentiment was calmer yesterday following the heightened volatility last week. Global equity markets traded higher across Europe, the US and Asia whilst the dollar weakened against most major currencies and UST yields edged lower.
    In President Trump’s proposed spending plan for 2019, the US administration called for a boost in infrastructure spending but markets have shown little reaction to the announcement.
    Overnight, South Africa’s ruling ANC’s national executive committee decided to order President Jacob Zuma to resign after a 13-hour NEC meeting, paving the way for Cyril Ramaphosa to take power which is likely to fuel ZAR strength. If Zuma does not resign within the 48-hour window, the ANC will to turn to an emergency vote of no confidence.
    In Japan, reports of Governor Kuroda being reappointed for a second term suggest stability for the BoJ, however USDJPY was unchanged as a second term was widely expected by the market.
    In UK data yesterday, house prices printed their first annual decline in six years. Despite the negative print, GBPUSD initially traded higher however our traders saw better supply throughout the day. Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3765 ahead of 1.3660, with resistance 1.4000 ahead of 1.4070.
    Elsewhere, Swedish unemployment data printed slightly stronger than expected (4.0% vs. 4.1%), but the release had little effect on USDSEK. Inflation softened in India after having peaked in December; we continue to think that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains largely data dependent and is unlikely to rush into hiking rates at its upcoming meetings.
    Inflation data remains in focus today; we expect the UK to report higher core inflation and Hungary CPI to decline as a result of energy price base effects.

  10. #730
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 14 February 2018

    US and European bond markets was again confined to tight ranges
    Trading on US and European bond markets was again confined to tight ranges. Investor sentiment in Europe turned more cautious despite yesterday's rally on WS. A sharp decline of USD/JPY and a mediocre performance of European equities provided a cautious bid for core bonds, but the intraday gains remained modest. At the start of the US trading, the US NFIB small business confidence printed stronger than expected. Fed's Mester said that recent market turmoil doesn't change her assessment on the economy. At the time of writing, US/core yields are mostly slightly lower. The picture on the equity markets remains indecisive. US yields decline up to 1.5 bp with the 2-year underperforming (+2 bp, Mester comments?). German yields decline up to 1.5 bp, with the 10-year outperforming. 10-y yield spreads versus Germany widened across the board. Italy and Spain added 4bp. Portugal widened 6bp. Greece again underperformed (+11bp).
    Dollar weakness prevailed today. We didn't see any specific economic news to explain the move. The sharp decline of USD/JPY in Asia this morning and early in Europe also weighed on other USD cross rates. USD/JPY dropped from the 108.75 area to fill bids below 107.50 just before noon in Europe. The move created uncertainty on European equity markets. The risk-off this time didn't help the dollar against the likes of the euro. The USD/JPY decline also propelled EUR/USD back to the 1.2350 area. The EUR/USD rally slowed temporary early in US dealings after a strong NFIB confidence and 'hawkish' comments from Fed's Mester (no impact yet from recent market turmoil). Still, the dollar is holding within reach of the intraday lows. EUR/USD trades at 1.2350. USD/JPY trades near 107.70.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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