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  1. #881
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Sep 2018

    • Global equities rose yesterday amid improving risk sentiment
    • General USD weakness but USDJPY outperformed overnight
    • Stronger-than-expected UK data helped fuel GBPUSD rally


    Most global equities rose yesterday and the S&P 500 hit a new record high on the back of relief the recently announced US-China trade restrictions may not be as damaging as initially thought. In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index fell amid the improving risk sentiment
    The shift in risk sentiment also hit JPY which reached a two-month low vs the USD this morning
    AUDUSD rose yesterday after S&P raised Australia’s sovereign ratings’ outlook
    GBPUSD was supported by an upside surprise in UK retail sales data which increased the market’s expectation of BoE rate hikes in 2019. The data print coupled with general USD weakness helped GBPUSD to rally up to 1.3298 yesterday
    With regards to Brexit, language from EU officials at the Salzburg Summit showed little appreciation of progress in negotiations (Reuters) and markets will likely continue to watch any further headlines
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3200 while resistance comes in at 1.3300. EURGBP support is at 0.8850 while resistance lies at 0.8910 and 0.8935-55
    In EM, Turkey’s Medium Term Plan was encouraging in terms of fiscal tightening and growth targets, however did not meet expectations regarding the support for banks to address “bad” USD-denominated debt; USDTRY closed the day modestly lower after a volatile session
    Elsewhere, ZAR rallied vs the USD after the SARB’s took a hawkish stance in its monetary policy statemen

  2. #882
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Sep 2018

    • Risk sentiment tentatively recovering amid hopes of improving trade relations
    • USD came under pressure, while NZD outperformed overnight
    • GBPUSD was weighed down by further Brexit concerns at the informal EU Summit


    An improvement in risk sentiment prompted most global equities to rise throughout last week, and also drove a short-term retracement in the USD Bloomberg Spot Index. However, this weekend’s headlines that China cancelled trade talks with the US (Reuters) coupled with the fact that the US tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods started today, have reinforced trade concerns at the start of the week
    GBPUSD dropped below 1.3100 on Friday, reversing all of the gains it made during the week. The EU summit in Salzburg brought back negative Brexit rhetoric, with PM May reiterating that “no deal is better than a bad deal”
    Brexit commentary will likely to continue to drive GBP sentiment, especially as the Labour party conference started over the weekend and the Conservative party conference will take place on 30th Sep- 3rd Oct
    Focus is also on central bank meetings, with the FOMC taking place on Wednesday. Barclays Research believe the meeting is unlikely to spark a USD rebound given “a 25bp rate hike for this meeting is priced in, and we do not expect changes in the median path for policy”
    In EM, several central banks have stepped in to counter currency weakness, with both the CBT and the CBR hiking rates
    This week, Barclays Research expect more central bank tightening, with the BSP (the Philippines) likely to raise its policy rate by 50bp, and Bank Indonesia likely to deliver another 25bp hike

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