Hello Guest, if you are reading this it means you have not registered yet. Please take a second, Click here to register, and in a few simple steps you will be able to enjoy all the many features of our fine community. Note that lewd or meaningless nicknames are prohibited (no numbers or letters at random) and please introduce yourself in the section for you to meet our community.
100-bonus-benefit
pcm brokers pcm brokers
Page 66 of 68 FirstFirst ... 16566465666768 LastLast
Results 651 to 660 of 679
  1. #651
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 5 October 2017

    • European risk assets underperform due to the instability in Catalonia
    • AUD underperforms overnight after a weak retail sales print
    • PM May garners support from several Conservative MPs

    US equities were largely unchanged yesterday whilst their European counterparts underperformed as the instability in Catalonia is beginning to have negative spillover effects on European risk assets.
    USD remained strong against G10 peers overnight after having gained support from US non-manufacturing ISM printing at 59.8 – a 12-year high – yesterday afternoon.
    The differential between the Spanish 10y government bond yield and its German counterpart has now widened by around 15bps since last Friday’s close. The Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, has said that he will declare independence from Spain in a matter of days.
    AUD was the clear underperformer overnight falling more than 0.5% after retail sales came in at
    -0.6% m/m (Consensus: 0.3% m/m), the weakest print since 2013.
    In the UK, despite PM May laying out a range of new policies in her keynote speech, media attention largely fell on the fact that she struggled to deliver her key note speech due to a heavy cold and that she was interrupted midway by a prankster handing her a fake P45 note.
    May reportedly came under criticism by some Conservative MPs following the speech whilst many others, including Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, rallied round her.
    UK Services PMI came in stronger than expected for September yesterday which lifted GBP in the morning session but gains against USD and EUR were erased in the afternoon.

  2. #652
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 9 October 2017

    • Turkish Lira tumbles as diplomatic relations with the US deteriorate
    • Friday’s US employment data reported soft payrolls data but strong wage growth
    • Markets likely to be dominated by political events this week

    Political events continue to drive financial markets, with the Turkish lira selling off overnight after the US suspended all non-immigrant visas to Turkish citizens over the weekend and Turkey responded by suspending non-immigrant visa services to the US. Markets now await statements from Turkey officials including President Erdogan.
    Elsewhere, NZDUSD declined to its lowest level in around four months on political uncertainty following the recent elections in New Zealand and the ongoing turmoil in Catalonia led Spanish government bond yields to surge by 10bp.
    Chinese equities rallied following the Golden Week break that saw global equities reach record highs. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada and the US (Columbus day) are closed for holidays today.
    In data last week, manufacturing data from the US, the Euro area and the UK, all remained in expansionary territory. Friday’s US employment report showed strong wage growth, fuelling expectations of future cost-push inflation, but soft payrolls driven by weather. The market is now pricing in a c.80% probability of a December hike.
    In focus this week will be the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and Fed speakers including Kaplan, Williams, Powell and Kashkari. The succession race for Fed Chair Yellen appears to have reached its final stage. The candidates cover the dove/hawk spectrum and developments with this process are likely to continue to drive the USD this week.
    British Prime Minister May’s speech at the Conservative Party conference last week coincided with the pound shedding almost 3%, despite her lack of detail. The fifth round of Brexit negotiations begins today and will be focused on citizenship rights, financial settlement, and the Irish border
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000-1.3025, with short term resistance at 1.3150 and 1.3220. EURGBP resistance at 0.9000, with support at 0.8900-35 and 0.8870.

  3. #653
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 10 October 2017

    US Dollar At Crossroads Ahead Of Key Economic Releases
    While last week's highly disappointing US non-farm payrolls release was generally discounted by the markets due to the expected impact of two hurricanes that negatively affected US job growth in September, greater-than-expected wage growth and a lower unemployment rate were significant bright spots in the data. With respect to wage growth, a key indicator of inflation, average hourly earnings jumped up +0.5% in September against both a prior consensus forecast of +0.3% as well as the previous month's +0.2% revised reading. This surprisingly elevated wage growth data is likely to play a role in boosting the prospects for a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The current week features more US economic releases that will also play a key role in helping to set the tone for both Fed policy and the US dollar going forward.
    Wednesday brings the release of minutes from the September FOMC meeting, in which interest rates were kept unchanged as expected, but where the Fed struck a relatively hawkish tone with respect to future monetary policy. The actual extent of this hawkishness will be further clarified on Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Thursday of this week brings the US Producer Price Index, a key inflation indicator, for September. The current consensus forecast is for a +0.4% rise in producer prices after the previous month's relatively tepid +0.2% rise. On Friday, both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US retail sales data for September will be released. The CPI, a primary inflation gauge, is expected to have risen by a very substantial +0.6% after the previous month's +0.4%, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to have remained steady at +0.2%. Finally, US retail sales is expected to have jumped in September by +1.5% after the previous month's poor -0.2% showing, while core retail sales (excluding automobiles) is also expected to have jumped – by +0.9%.

  4. #654
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 11 October 2017

    • EUR experiences a relief rally after Catalan President Puigdemont delays independence move
    • GBP outperforms on better UK data
    • FOMC minutes in focus this evening

    Asian equity markets rallied yesterday with the Nikkei 225 closing at the highest level since 1996. In FX, EUR gained (vs. USD) after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont suspended the declaration of independence from Spain when he addressed the regional parliament in Barcelona yesterday.
    GBP outperformed in the early London session yesterday following better UK data. Manufacturing and construction printed firmer in August after repeatedly falling short of expectations in recent months. Together, this could contribute positively to Q3 growth. However, the widening trade deficit points to ongoing export difficulties, while import strength may point to an upside consumption surprise.
    UK data printed the following: industrial production 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m expected); manufacturing production 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m expected); construction at 0.6% m/m (0.0% m/m expected); however, trade balance worsened to a £5.6bn deficit in August.
    UK politics also remained in focus with Prime Minister May choosing to be silent when asked how she would vote in a second Brexit poll (FT). Shortly after, Chancellor Hammond expressed reluctance to budget for a “no deal” Brexit scenario from the European Union.
    In European data, IP surprised to the upside in Italy posing meaningful upside risks to our third quarter growth forecast of 0.4%. Industrial production in France dropped by a moderate 0.3% m/m in August, coming below our and consensus forecasts.
    Looking to the day ahead, the key scheduled event is the release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting. In our view, most participants should view the recent weakness in inflation as dissipating over time, thereby permitting a return of inflation to the target.

  5. #655
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 12 October 2017

    • Equity markets continued their rally and EUR remains on course for a strong week
    • USD extends its losses after FOMC minutes strike a cautious tone on inflation
    • Fourth round of NAFTA renegotiations began

    Equity markets continued their rally with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new intraday highs and the Dow closing at a record high. In FX, the USD extended its losses after slightly dovish FOMC minutes and EUR remained on course for a strong week as the immediate threat of Spain’s breakup over Catalonia’s independence bid receded.
    The minutes to the September FOMC minutes delivered little additional information. They hued closely to the main messages delivered in the September FOMC statement, press conference, and projection materials. Many participants judge that “at least part” of the softening in inflation was due to idiosyncratic or one-time factors. However, concerns over inflation remain elevated, and some on the committee think the disinflation may prove more persistent than expected.
    Yesterday’s minutes are consistent with our outlook for a further 25bp rate increase this year at the December meeting, conditional on incoming data. Markets are pricing c. 75% probability of a December rate hike
    A softer USD led GBPUSD higher, in the absence of domestic data or political headlines. Our traders see GBPUSD short term resistance at 1.3300 and support at 1.3175. EURGBP remains within the 0.8900-0.9000 range.
    Also in the US, the fourth round of NAFTA renegotiations began. An agreement on competition was announced yesterday, but now the negotiations move to more contentious topics. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau met with President Trump to discuss trade and defense, and the US president again reiterated that ending NAFTA and having a bilateral treaty with Canada is a possibility.
    USDCAD traded soft overnight, in line with the broader USD sentiment, whilst MXN underperformed on NAFTA uncertainty.
    Market focus now shifts to Brexit negotiations and news related to the selection of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s replacement, ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data.

  6. #656
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 October 2017

    • S&P index slips whilst Asian equities trade firmer
    • GBP remains volatile on comments from EU's chief negotiator Barnier
    • Focus turns to US retail sales and consumer price data today


    Asian equities were mostly firmer while European equity futures traded slightly higher. The S&P 500 edged lower, following a run of gains in global stocks this week. The USD and UST yields remain poised to end four weeks of gains as confidence in American tax-cut plans waned somewhat and the Federal Reserve signal that several policy makers are cautious about an interest-rate hike before year-end.
    In FX, GBPUSD saw choppy moves
    yesterday after trading in an upward trend this week on a softer USD, driven by the FOMC’s recent dovish minutes. GBP aggressively sold off on comments from EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier who said there was “deadlock” on the Brexit financial settlement. Later in the day, this reversed with GBPUSD rallying c. 100 pips after Handelsblatt (German Newspaper) claimed that Barnier could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market as long as Britain meets financial obligations.
    EURGBP initially broke above recent range highs at 0.9000 on Barnier’s initial comments, to highs of 0.9033 (Bloomberg), but then reversed back below recent range support of 0.8900. Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3100 and 1.3000, whilst resistance is at 1.
    3500.
    Focus turns to US retail sales and consumer price data today. US retail sales are expected to pick up in today’s print for September, along with US CPI. We are in line with consensus for September CPI at 2.3% y/y (1.8% y/y for core CPI), but slightly stronger on retail sales at 1.7% m/m (0.9% ex. autos). Also today, markets await three Fed speakers including Evans, Powell, and Kaplan.

  7. #657
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 16 October 2017

    • Asian equity markets rally whilst the USD marginally rises
    • GBP finished last week with a volatile session driven by Brexit headlines
    • Political developments in Germany, Austria, China and Japan in focus this week

    Risk sentiment has opened this week on a positive note with Asian equities ex. Japan reaching decade highs and the Nikkei 225 rallying for a sixth consecutive day to its highest level since 1996. The USD has opened marginally higher versus G10 peers after softening modestly last week and crude oil jumped ~1% on reports of deadly clashes between Kurdish and Iraqi forces.
    GBP ended last week with a choppy session after a number of Brexit headlines created spurts of volatility. This week, price action is likely to be driven by a plethora of data releases, including inflation, employment and wage growth, especially ahead of the next BoE meeting in November.
    The market currently implies around an 85% chance of a rate hike in November so incoming data is more likely to affect market expectations of the bank’s future policy path rather than the November decision as the latter is almost fully priced in.
    GBPUSD finds support in the 1.3250 area with resistance coming in at 1.3325 ahead of 1.3400. Meanwhile EURGBP support comes in at 0.8870 with resistance at 0.8930.
    USD came under pressure last Friday after US September CPI printed at 2.2% y/y versus expectations for a 2.3% y/y increase. Fed Chair Yellen will speak to the National Economists Club on Friday but few other events are scheduled this week and the US data calendar is relatively light.
    German coalition-building efforts and the aftermath of Austria’s general election on Sunday where the 31-year-old leader of the right-wing Austrian Peoples Party, Sebastian Kurz, has already declared victory will likely set the tone for the EUR this week.
    The 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress starting on Wednesday will be closely watched this week for clues on the upcoming economic agenda. Barclays Research expects President Xi to “…emphasize the importance of financial/economic risk controls, boosting national GDP and per capita income, SOE reforms, and financial market and CNY liberalization…”.
    In Japan, focus will be on the upcoming general election on 22 October which will play a critical role in shaping the country’s economic policy and market outlook. Recent surveys indicate declining support for Abe’s opposition, the Party of Hope, and most Japanese investors expect the ruling parties (LDP-KP) to win the majority.

  8. #658
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 17 October 2017

    • Global equity markets largely continue to rise and the USD strengthens
    • UK September CPI in focus this morning
    • NAFTA renegotiations weigh on MXN

    Global equity markets largely continued to edge higher yesterday whilst US Treasury yields were modestly higher. The USD strengthened after reports that President Trump was impressed by John Taylor, one of the more hawkish candidates for the Fed Chair position, after the two met for an hour-long interview at the White house last week.
    Trump is expected to meet with Yellen later this week, another candidate for the Fed Chair role, and Trump has said that he plans to make a final decision within the next few weeks.
    The overnight USD strength has pushed EURUSD down to test short-term support around the 1.1770/60 area
    In the UK, short-term GBP fluctuations continue to be driven by Brexit headlines and GBPUSD fell yesterday after May and Juncker failed to smooth over disagreements in yesterday’s statement.
    However, focus is expected to shift to economic fundamentals today as we get UK CPI and Retail Price Index for September. Barclays Research expects CPI to come in at 3.0% y/y and “…any upward surprise could see a resumption of GBP strength as markets price in a steeper path of BoE rate hikes…”.
    In Europe, politics is back in focus after the OVP (Conservatives) won the Austrian general election and a coalition with the far-right FPO seems likely. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel’s position was further weakened in Germany after CDU was defeated by SPD in regional elections in Lower Saxony.
    NAFTA renegotiations continue to stall after the latest round of aggressive demands from the US. Mexican assets continued their recent underperformance and USDMXN rose to a 5 month high.

  9. #659
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 18 October 2017

    • Global equities largely unchanged, GBP underperforms
    • NAFTA negotiations will be extended into 2018, overnight gains in MXN and CAD
    • UK labour market report in focus this morning

    US equities closed largely unchanged yesterday in line with their European counterparts earlier in the day. Meanwhile, UK government bond yields fell after a number of MPC members testified before the Treasury select committee which weighed on GBP.
    Asian equity markets are relatively unchanged as of midday local time and most G10 pairs have traded in a tight range with the exception of CAD which rallied after Canada’s foreign minister said it is a positive sign that the US has agreed to extend NAFTA renegotiations.
    In the UK, inflation for September came in at 3.0% y/y which was in line with expectations and attention turned to the hearing of Ramsden and Tenreyro, the two new members of the BoE’s MPC. Ramsden was clearly interpreted as a dove by the market whilst Tenreyro was more balanced.
    The hearing prompted some market participants to pare back expectations of a rate hike and GBPUSD dropped to 1.3150 as a result where it found support.
    Focus this morning will be on the UK labour report at 9.30 and Barclays Research expects it to show “…earnings growing in line with the recent, stable trend. Low productivity should continue to power job creation, but not fast enough to push unemployment lower…”.
    NAFTA negotiators agreed to extend talks into 2018, with the next round of negotiations taking place on 17th - 21st November. MXN and CAD strengthened overnight, with USDMXN falling by as much as 2.2% and USDCAD dropping by 0.8%.
    Despite the initial positive impact, the tensions between the US and its partners are set to continue which means that the pressure on MXN is likely to be extended as well.
    China’s 19th Communist Party Congress begins today and it is scheduled to last for 1 week. Markets are expected to pay close attention to any new high-level appointments to positions focused on the economy, as well as prospects for economic reform.

  10. #660
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    U.A.E
    Posts
    3,717
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    25,569
    My Language
    English

    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 October 2017

    Gold Dips to 1-Week Low Despite Soft US Housing Data
    Gold is down for a third consecutive day. In the North American session, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1279.79, down 0.39% on the day. On the release front, the focus was on housing data, and the September numbers were soft. Building Permits slowed to 1.22 million, shy of the estimate of 1.25 million. Housing Starts dropped to 1.13 million, missing the forecast of 1.18 million. On Thursday, the US will publish unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
    It's been a rough week for gold, which has dropped 1.8 percent. The metal has been under pressure following reports that President Trump is leaning towards nominating economist John Taylor as the new head of the Federal Reserve, after Fed Chair Janet Yellen's term ends in February 2018. Taylor is considered more hawkish on policy than the current head, Janet Yellen, and Taylor's monetary stance would see interest rates substantially higher than the current 1.25%. A more hawkish Fed under Taylor could be inclined to raise interest rates early in 2018, despite weak inflation, which would strengthen the greenback against gold. Other candidates for the Fed Chair include current Fed Governor Jerome Powell and former Fed official Kevin Warsh.
    The Federal Reserve is on track for a third and final rate hike in 2017. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has sounded positive about the economy and says that she expects inflation to move higher. The markets have picked up on this message, and the odds of a December hike have jumped to a sizzling 91 percent. Just one month ago, the odds were 50-50 that the Fed would raise rates at the December meeting. Low inflation levels have been a key reason that the Fed has been reluctant to raise rates, but policymakers insist that inflation will move closer towards the Fed's inflation target of 2 percent.

 

 
Page 66 of 68 FirstFirst ... 16566465666768 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Fundamental View
    By Samirofi in forum How Prices Moved After News Came Out
    Replies: 283
    Last Post: 01-28-2016, 10:57 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.4
Copyright © 2017 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Credits System provided by vBCredits II Deluxe v2.1.1 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like v3.3.0 Patch Level 2 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
All times are GMT +4. The time now is 05:43 PM.
CompleteVB skins shared by PreSofts.Com