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  1. #661
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 23 October 2017

    • Japan’s ruling coalition secures two-thirds majority; USDJPY ticks higher overnight
    • US Senate approves budget, unlocking path towards tax reform
    • ECB’s meeting on Thursday takes centre stage this week

    Japan’s ruling coalition secured a two-thirds majority in Sunday’s lower house elections, prompting USDJPY to tick slightly higher at the open and Japanese equities to surge.
    Barclays Research think that the election result “… strengthens the prospects for: 1) continuity in monetary policy for now, including the reappointment of BoJ Governor Kuroda; and 2) a consumption tax hike in October 2019, but a neutral fiscal policy stance on balance”.
    In the US, the Senate approved the budget resolution for the fiscal year 2018 on Friday, which includes instructions for budget reconciliation that would allow the approval of GOP tax cuts without the need for any Democrats’ minority votes.
    Elsewhere, GBP was buoyed on Friday with market focus turning to the positive / upbeat headlines from Brussels. This week, PM May addresses Parliament on Brexit progress this afternoon, and we also watch for UK GDP on Wednesday. GBPUSD support at 1.3080, ahead of 1.3000-30 area, with resistance at 1.3230 ahead of 1.3340. EURGBP support at 0.8900 ahead of 0.8820-25 trend line area and 0.8745-50.
    The week ahead will see many central bank meetings (Riksbank, Norges Bank and BoC), with the ECB taking centre stage on Thursday. The Governing Council is widely expected to announce changes to its QE Programme, and consensus expectations have shifted from a six months extension of 40bn towards a longer extension.
    Barclays Research “… do not see compelling risk/reward in pre-positioning in EUR ahead of the ECB announcement, given shifting expectations and difficulty in gauging how the market is pricing the parameter changes”.

  2. #662
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 24 October 2017

    • Japanese equities gain for 15th consecutive day
    • GBP outperforms after PM May’s Brexit update to Parliament
    • China’s oil consumption could be understated according to Ursa Space Systems

    US equities closed slightly lower yesterday after a relatively light session in terms of volume and the most notable mover was the Japanese stock market which continued to make gains (Nikkei +1.1%) after the weekend’s election affirmed support for the ruling coalition and “Abenomics”.
    Asian equity markets are largely higher as of midday local time and FX was generally stable overnight with the exception of NZD which fell by over 1% as PM Ardern outlined plans to give the RBNZ a new unemployment mandate and potentially a currency mandate.
    In the UK, PM May told Parliament that important progress was made on Brexit during last week’s EU Summit but such language has been heard before without any finalized details.
    GBP outperformed on a relative basis as EURGBP tested back below 0.8900 but GBPUSD failed to break above recent resistance around 1.3230. However, GBP has pared back some of the gains made this morning.
    Except for GDP on Wednesday, there are no noteworthy data releases in the coming days and anticipation for next week’s BoE meeting is likely to drive GBP over the next week.
    As the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress continues with a focus on higher-quality but slower growth – and potentially less demand for commodities – satellite data show that China’s oil consumption may be understated
    Ursa Space Systems satellite data suggest that actual builds in crude stocks occurred at roughly a third of the pace reported by the Chinese government.

  3. #663
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 25 October 2017

    • Dow Jones makes new all-time highs on stronger than expected earnings
    • Fed Chair speculation continues to drive US rates and USD
    • UK Q3 GDP in focus this morning

    US equity markets finished the day in the green yesterday and the Dow Jones made new all-time highs after earning beats by a number of industrials.
    USD strength versus EM currencies was the dominant theme in FX markets with Latin American currencies in particular coming under pressure as US bond yields moved higher.
    US rates and USD continue to be driven by the question of who should replace Yellen as Fed Chair and according to reports, the relatively hawkish John Taylor came out on top after President Trump asked Senate Republicans for their opinion on the matter.
    Trump has indicated that he will make a decision before his next foreign trip on 3rd Nov.
    GBP traded with an offered tone throughout yesterday’s session versus both USD and EUR on no particular news but it is not unlikely that some will have been disappointed by PM May’s failure to deliver any further updates on Brexit negotiations.
    Focus today will be on Q3 GDP released this morning and Barclays Research expects “…UK GDP to have expanded 1.4% y/y, though the deterioration in net trade and slowing momentum in the service sector imply downside risks…”.
    The BoC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged today as communication since the surprise September hike and softer data has pared down market expectations for a sustained hiking cycle.
    The National Treasury of South Africa will present its Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to Parliament today. This will be Finance Minister Gigaba’s maiden budgetary presentation and markets will be looking for evidence of adeptness in the way he confronts the country’s fiscal challenges, especially with regards to prioritization of the numerous competing demands.

  4. #664
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 26 October 2017

    • USD falls overnight whilst GBP outperforms on a strong GDP print
    • South African and Turkish assets come under pressure
    • Focus today on the ECB rate decision and press conference

    European and US equities were lower on the day yesterday and USD fell overnight versus G10 peers on speculation that Trump might give the relatively dovish Yellen another term as Fed Chair.
    GBP was the clear outperformer in G10 space after a stronger than expected GDP print whilst CAD weakened as the BoC struck a cautious tone at its meeting.
    South African and Turkish assets, including their respective currencies, were two of the key underperformers in EM space due to idiosyncratic stories.
    In South Africa, the budget presented to Parliament yesterday showed a wider-than-expected deficit and it lacked a clear plan to close said deficit in the coming years.
    In Turkey, reports that German institutions are restricting financing to Turkey weighed on sentiment. This follows a recent diplomatic spat with the US and unconfirmed reports of possible sanctions on Turkish banks over alleged violations of Iran sanctions.
    UK Q3 17 preliminary GDP came in slightly higher than expected at 0.4% m/m thanks primarily to a rebound in business services and finance. Despite beating expectations by only a small margin, GBPUSD rallied around 1% as the print seemingly confirms that the BoE will hike next week.
    Today’s focus lies on the ECB meeting where a change to the bank’s QE programme is expected
    Barclays Research expects “…President Draghi to announce a nine-month extension of the asset purchase program at a slower pace of EUR30bn per month (current: EUR60bn)…”. Also, they think it is unlikely for the ECB to “…commit to tapering towards zero at the end of the extended program…” meaning that QE could continue at least until the end of 2018.

  5. #665
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 30 October 2017

    • Markets open largely unchanged this morning, USD eases
    • BoE rate decision on Thursday in focus this week
    • The new Fed chair is expected to be announced sometime this week

    Global equity markets were driven higher last week by supportive developments in policy and economic data. Most equity markets rose, oil prices surged on expectations for an OPEC production cut extension and European government bonds rallied on a dovish ECB.
    USD has opened the week slightly on the back foot against G10 peers whilst EUR has so far been unperturbed by further unrest in Catalonia over the weekend.
    The Catalan parliament voted on Friday to become an independent republic which resulted in the federal government dissolving Catalonian parliament and taking over control of ministries in a temporary measure until regional elections are held in December.
    Barclays Research thinks that “…independence remains unlikely in the near term as it would require important constitutional changes…”.
    In the UK, the BoE’s rate decision on Thursday will be the main focus this week and the bank is widely expected to raise the Bank Rate by 25bps. A stronger-than-expected UK GDP print last week coupled with above target inflation and a tight labour market all suggest that a rate hike is in order.
    Barclays Research stated that “…although the BoE is likely to communicate the start of a mini hiking cycle, we do not expect further rate hikes in 2018…”.
    In the US, President Trump is expected to announce the new Fed chair anytime this week and the two top candidates are currently Taylor and Powell. A hawkish nomination (Taylor) could support USD but the Fed’s policy path will be driven more by incoming economic data.
    The FOMC is scheduled to meet on Wednesday and Barclays Research thinks the meeting is “…unlikely to change market expectations of a December rate hike (84% priced in)…”.

  6. #666
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 31 October 2017

    • US politics overshadowed data in yesterday trading
    • Bank of Japan left policy unchanged as widely expected
    • European data in focus this morning

    Global equity markets fluctuated after weaker than expected China PMI data. However, markets were focused on the investigation into alleged Russian interference and collusion in US elections, which returned and hit sentiment driving US equities lower ahead of a busy political week.
    UST yields declined and the USD lost ground vs. most G10 peers, amid month-end flows. Crude oil held to last week’s gains as markets begin to anticipate an extension of the output cut deal at next month’s OPEC meeting.
    In the US, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data was mixed, with strong personal income and spending, overshadowed by soft core PCE inflation. However, US politics eclipsed data yesterday, with the indictment of Paul Manafort (Trump’s campaign manager) and the guilty plea of George Papadopoulos (Trump’s foreign policy advisor) taking momentum away from White House’s legislative effort ahead of the House tax plan.
    Also this week, the House Committee on Ways and Means Committee will release its tax plan (Wednesday) and President Trump will announce the new Fed chair (Thursday); Jerome Powell, the closest candidate to status-quo, appears to be leading the contest.
    Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan left its Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) programme and 10 year yield target unchanged as expected, while downgrading its CPI forecasts for fiscal 2017 and 2018. The Bank of Japan’s new member Kataoka cast the only dissenting vote in favour of additional easing measures, as expected. USDJPY price action was fairly muted as a result.
    European data will be in focus today, particularly after Draghi mentioned that that price pressures are still “muted” overall despite “unabated” growth momentum. We expect euro area inflation to print 1.5% y/y in September (core 1.1% y/y). However, we see a risk that headline inflation could ease to 1.4% after preliminary data from Spain and Germany were below our expectations.
    Our traders noted two-way flow in EURUSD yesterday. Support comes in at 1.1574 (Friday’s low, Bloomberg) ahead of 1.1500. Meanwhile resistance remains at 1.1660/75 ahead of 1.1715.

  7. #667
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 1 November 2017

    Busy Day For The USD: FOMC, ADP Payrolls, And ISM Manufacturing
    The markets were seen trading subdued yesterday. The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy steady, and in the Eurozone, flash inflation estimates showed that consumer prices rose 1.4% on the headline and 0.9% on the core. This was weaker than the estimates. However, flash GDP showed a 0.6% increase for the third quarter, while the second quarter GDP was revised higher to 0.7%. In Canada, the monthly GDP data posted a 0.1% decline which missed estimates of a 0.1% increase.
    Looking ahead, the economic data today will see the release of the manufacturing PMI for the UK. Economists are forecasting a modest print of 55.8, slightly down from 55.9 in September. The NY trading session will see the ADP private payrolls data coming out. Estimates point to a 202k print for September. Revision for the previous month is expected as well. This is followed by the ISM manufacturing PMI which is expected to show a decline in the index to 59.5 in October, following 60.8 the month before.
    On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan made no changes to its huge monetary stimulus plan even as it reduced its inflation forecasts. The BoJ board voted, 8-1, to maintain the central bank’s yield curve control program and asset purchases. The board kept its view that its 2% inflation target is likely to be met at the start of the fiscal year that begins in April 2019. Governor Kuroda continued to stress the importance of maintaining monetary easing as the world major Central Banks are moving towards monetary normalization. However, this is whilst the Japanese economy is seeing its longest expansion since 2001, with equities at their highest level in 20 years and a labor market that is the tightest for several decades.

  8. #668
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 2 November 2017

    • President Trump is expected to appoint Powell as the new Fed Chair
    • UK Manufacturing PMI beat expectations
    • Bank of England’s rate decision takes centre stage today

    Most markets traded sideways yesterday with global equity markets mixed after a relatively uneventful FOMC meeting was overshadowed by reports regarding the next Fed Chair. In FX, the USD declined alongside UST yields on reports that President Trump is expected to appoint Governor Jerome Powell as the new Fed Chair
    The Fed Chair decision should be formalised today, alongside the House’s tax plan release which was delayed yesterday. Powell is perceived as a Fed Chair close to the status quo, since his recent speeches and policy decisions have been fairly similar to Chair Janet Yellen’s.
    With the USD on the back foot, our traders do not expect the formalised decision to drive market reaction today if Powell is confirmed. Nevertheless, if John Taylor is to be nominated as Vice Chair, that would tilt the reaction function to the hawkish side.
    In the November FOMC statement, the committee signaled that the storm disruptions are transitory and the outlook still warrants gradual increases in the federal funds rate .
    In UK data, Manufacturing PMI beat expectations (56.3 vs. 55.9 expected) adding to the GBP bid tone yesterday morning. However, this rhetoric reversed after Defence Secretary Michael Fallon announced his resignation, weighing on GBP ahead of the Bank of England decision today.
    The Bank of England’s will take centre stage at midday, where they are widely expected to hike by 25bps to 0.5%. The MPC is likely to consider that the recent mix of data as supportive of a November hike, and communicate on the need for further hikes. However, Barclays Research “…does not expect the data over coming months to be strong enough to support further rate hikes in 2018…”.
    In our view, a vote split different from 7-2 introduces two-sided risk for the currency with anything less likely to weigh on GBP, and vice versa. Our traders see short term GBPUSD support at 1.3240 ahead of 1.3070 and 1.3000, with 1.3340 and 1.3500 acting as resistance. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8735 with resistance at 0.8800-0.8830 ahead of 0.8900-20.

  9. #669
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 3 November 2017

    • Bank of England hikes, but GBP assets sell off on a sharp unwind of hike expectations
    • GOP House tax cut plan is released and Powell is officially nominated as the new Fed Chair
    • US employment report in focus today

    Global equity markets were mixed with US equities lower but Asian markets opening slightly stronger today. The GOP House tax cut plan was released yesterday, but the lack of meaningful reform and uncertainty on approval drove US equities, UST yields and the USD lower. As expected, Jerome Powell was officially nominated as the new Fed Chair, with little market reaction.
    As widely expected, the Bank of England hiked rates yesterday by 25bp to 0.5% in a 7-2 decision; however, the market perceived the Bank of England’s official statement as dovish vs. September, as it removed indications that the rates “…may need to rise more than expected…”, with Governor Carney pointing to two more hikes in three years.
    The initial market reaction in response to the announcement was a sharp unwind of hike expectations, with rates and gilts rallying, while GBP sold off vs. major currencies. GBPUSD traded to a low of 1.3085 (Bloomberg) while EURGBP strengthened to 0.8932 (Bloomberg) following the announcement.
    Our traders see GBPUSD short term support at 1.3030 ahead of 1.3000, a move lower opens up support at 1.2780 (Bloomberg August low). Meanwhile, resistance is at 1.3081 (100 dma) ahead of 1.3200-25 and 1.3340. EURGBP support is at 0.8900 and 0.8730 with resistance at 0.8950 and 0.9050.
    The US employment report will be the main focus today. We forecast nonfarm payrolls to have increased 325k, and a strong rebound in hiring following the hurricane disruptions seen in the September report.

  10. #670
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 6 November 2017

    • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said it is crucial for inflation to exceed 2%
    • Friday’s US employment data came in mixed
    • Markets await central banks including the RBA and RBNZ this week

    Global equity markets closed marginally higher, led by the NASDAQ, DAX, and Nikkei while oil extended an advance above $55 a barrel. JPY fell to the weakest level since March (vs. the USD) after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said it is crucial for inflation to exceed the 2% target, signaling there is little appetite for tapering stimulus.
    In contrast, the Bank of England joined the Fed on the path to normalization last week. The MPC raised rates for the first time in a decade and guided that more hikes are likely to be appropriate if data evolves as the BoE expects. In its base case, the MPC envisages two hikes over the next three years, close to what the market is pricing.
    Also last week, the Fed kept policy on hold and President Trump announced that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to replace Fed Chair Yellen when her term expires in February. In focus today, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley is expected to announce his retirement (CNBC).
    An early departure would mean the top 3 positions at the Fed changing over within a relatively short period after Vice Chairman Fischer retired in October; nevertheless, Powell is unlikely to materially change the outlook for Fed Policy in 2018, relative to current Chair Yellen.
    Friday’s US employment data came in mixed but we view the report as consistent with ongoing strength in the labour market. Non-farm payrolls disappointed rising 261k, vs. expectations of 313k, whilst September was revised higher by 51k. Headline unemployment came in stronger than expected at 4.1%, vs. expectations of 4.2%. Whilst the USD initially weakened, it recouped its losses and traded with a bid tone across the board after markets interpreted the report as positive overall.
    More central banks meet this week, led by the RBA on Tuesday. Policy announcements will also come from the central banks of Poland and Thailand on Wednesday, and the RBNZ and BNM on Thursday. All of these banks are likely to remain on hold, in the view of our economists and consensus.

 

 
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