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  1. #901
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Oct 2018

    • US equities traded lower yesterday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
    • China GDP growth slowed down to weakest pace since 2009
    • GBPUSD dropped in the absence of any breakthroughs at the EU Summit


    US equities closed in the red yesterday as investors acclimatized to the Fed continuing its gradual policy normalization and as tensions with China and Saudi Arabia continued to put pressure on sentiment. Most of the Asian equities traded higher however, led by a recovery in Chinese shares after the government announced potential support for the market (Reuters)
    Overnight, the release of Q3 China GDP showed that economic growth decelerated to its weakest pace since 2009, disappointing market expectations
    In response, Chinese officials dismissed the weakness in data and announced that they may support the stock market by allowing bank wealth management subsidiaries to invest directly in stocks (Reuters)
    Barclays Research warns that “externally, we continue to see downward pressure on growth largely from unfavourable demand amid a likely protracted trade war”
    In FX, the USD rallied across the board except versus JPY as safe-haven demands put downside pressure to USDJPY. EURUSD traded lower amid widening BTP-Bund spreads and ongoing concerns over Italy’s financials
    The EU reportedly responded negative to Italy’s budget calling it “unprecedented” (Bloomberg); markets will watch next week’s rating agency reviews of Italy closely
    GBPUSD dropped sharply yesterday amid a firmer USD and on the back of continued uncertainty and controversial Brexit rhetoric from negotiators at the EU Summit. This morning, GBPUSD has traded steadily above 1.30 thus far ahead of BoE Governor Carney’s speech at 17.10 BST

  2. #902
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Oct 2018

    • Chinese equities traded higher overnight on hopes of government support
    • Moody’s downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt, focus on S&P’s review this Friday
    • GBPUSD remains subject to headline risk surrounding Brexit


    US equities saw a mixed performance on Friday but Chinese shares continued to trade higher overnight as the hopes for potential market support boosted sentiment for a second session (Reuters). JPY fell against all of its G10 peers amid the improved risk appetite in Asia
    China released a detailed draft plan for personal income tax cuts over the weekend (Reuters) which supported a risk-on session overnight
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index rose last week overall amid hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. GBPUSD came under pressure amid broad-based USD strength and in the absence of meaningful progress at the EU summit with regards to Brexit negotiations
    With no major data releases this week, market attention will likely remain on Brexit developments
    Moody’s downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt by one notch on Friday, avoiding junk territory, and placed the outlook as ‘stable’. EURUSD rose on Friday as Italian bonds rallied on the news that bonds remain above ‘junk’
    This week, S&P will review Italy’s credit rating on Friday. Barclays Research believe they will likely also cut the rating by one notch and warn that a one-notch downgrade coupled with placing the sovereign on negative watch “would likely weigh on sentiment, pushing EURUSD close to, or even marginally below, its year-to-date lows”
    In EM, past currency depreciation and higher oil prices are likely making central banks more hawkish. Nonetheless, Barclays Research expect central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and Russia to stay on hold this week while they assess the effect of previous hikes

  3. #903
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Oct 2018

    • Global equities traded in the red as risk-off sentiment returns
    • GBPUSD dropped below 1.3000 amid increased Brexit concerns
    • European Commission due to respond to Italy’s budget plan today


    US equities dropped yesterday, weighed down in particular by the performance of banks amid fears that higher mortgage rates could impact growth negatively. Asian stocks continued with the decline overnight as a risk-off sentiment returned to markets amid ongoing US-Saudi Arabia tensions, Brexit uncertainties and concerns over Italy’s budget
    Looking ahead, the US earnings season will be watched closely, with Amazon, Alphabet, Caterpillar and other notable companies due to report this week
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index firmed throughout yesterday approaching the highest level since mid-August. At the same time, EUR was under pressure amid weakness in Italian sovereign bonds. Italy stated yesterday that it would stick with its 2019 budget plan; the European Commission is expected to respond today (Reuters)
    Elsewhere, JPY strengthened versus the USD overnight as Tokyo equities weakened
    GBP saw the worst performance in the G10 space yesterday dropping below 1.3000 on concerns over the Irish border issue and speculation of a serious leadership challenge for PM May (Reuters). There are no events of note today, however, there is increased headline risk from tomorrow’s 1922 Committee
    Brent oil closed the day below $80/ barrel for a fourth consecutive day as Saudi Arabia reportedly announced that it would take a “responsible role” in energy markets (Reuters

  4. #904
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Oct 2018

    • US equities closed lower yesterday, whilst Asian stocks recovered overnight
    • EURUSD traded range-bound despite the European Commission’s rejection of Italy’s budget
    • PM May to meet the Conservative Party backbenchers today


    US equities closed the day lower amid some disappointing earnings data from, amongst other, Caterpillar and 3M. Risk sentiment improved thereafter however as it was announced that US President Trump and China’s Premier Xi are meeting at the G20 next month (Bloomberg)
    Asian stocks broadly recovered overnight on hopes that the Chinese government may support domestic companies (Reuters). This lowered safe haven demand prompting JPY to fall versus its G10 peers overnight
    While the Bloomberg USD Spot Index was little changed throughout yesterday, GBPUSD spiked in the afternoon on hopes that the EU is preparing a solution for the Irish border issue (Bloomberg). Nonetheless, the pair closed the day broadly unchanged around the 1.3000 level
    Today’s focus is on PM May’s speech at the 1922 Committee to deliver the UK latest position on Brexit negotiations
    The European Commission rejected Italy’s budget yesterday, giving the government three more weeks to submit a fresh proposal. This is after Italy stated on Monday that it would stick to its 2019 plan despite the concerns of the EC
    EURUSD was little affected by yesterday’s news and traded in a relatively tight range between 1.1440 and 1.1500 ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting
    Brent prices slid by c. 5% to below $77/ barrel yesterday as Saudi Arabia reportedly announced that it would meet any potential supply shortfalls due to Iranian sanctions (Bloomberg)

  5. #905
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Oct 2018

    • Global equities sold-off amid disappointing corporate forecasts and a general risk-off sentiment
    • GBPUSD traded lower but PM May survived the 1922 Committee
    • EURUSD dropped on disappointing data yesterday, focus on the ECB meeting today


    The S&P 500 and Dow erased their 2018 gains yesterday amid disappointing forecasts from, amongst others, Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics, as well as weak US home sales data. The equity sell-off continued in Asia where the Nikkei hit a six-month low overnight
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index rallied yesterday, though USDJPY dropped overnight further to safe haven demand
    GBPUSD broke below 1.2900 yesterday amid general USD strength and ongoing concerns about the Brexit negotiations. In the evening, PM May survived the meeting with 1922 Committee as lawmakers largely showed loyalty despite the deep divisions within the Conservative Party over Brexit (Bloomberg)
    EURUSD also fell yesterday following disappointing German and EU PMI prints. Further pressure on the EUR originated from concerns about Italy’s budget as Italy’s Finance Minister Tria reportedly defended the budget, which had been rejected by the European Commission the previous day (Bloomberg)
    Focus will be on the ECB meeting today at 12.00 BST. Barclays Research expect the ECB to keep policy settings and the message unchanged, but warn that “it will likely signal growing concerns about negative risks ahead related to weak external demand, oil prices and Italy”
    Elsewhere, Barclays Research expect the Central Bank of Turkey to stay on hold as the recent easing tensions with the US and the subsequent rally in TRY reduces pressure for the CBT to hike

  6. #906
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 Oct 2018

    • US equities closed higher yesterday, but Asian stocks dropped overnight
    • EURUSD fell sharply following the ECB meeting
    • GBPUSD remains under pressure amid negative Brexit headlines


    US and European equities traded higher yesterday, however Amazon.com and Alphabet reported disappointing earnings after the closing bell which prompted S&P futures to fall. Asian stocks fell overnight as the PBoC announced that there are restrictions on using support tools for bond financing in some sectors suggesting limited financial support for some companies (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded higher yesterday amid the general risk-off sentiment, and is set to close the week at its highest level since June-17. AUD and NZD saw the worst performance of G10 currencies overnight, falling following the PBoC’s comments
    EURUSD fell sharply yesterday to a low of 1.1356 (Bloomberg) following the ECB meeting. Expectations were for a relatively dovish outcome given developments in Italy, a slowing in data and increased trade war concerns. Although Draghi maintained that risks remain balanced and that the slowing in data is in line with their base case scenario, it was not enough to stir investor confidence and EURUSD made fresh lows
    Today’s focus is on US GDP data at 13.30 BST as well as Draghi’s speech at 15.00 BST. Additionally, we get S&P’s credit review of Italy in the evening
    GBPUSD continued to sell-off yesterday amid reports that the Cabinet is not close enough to agreeing on a way forward for top level Brexit negotiations to resume and that there will almost certainly be no new plan put forward by the British side before next Monday’s budget (Bloomberg). Markets will likely continue to watch headlines closely

  7. #907
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 Oct 2018

    • Global stocks sold off last week, US equity futures lower overnight
    • EURUSD under pressure amid concerns about Italy’s budget situation
    • Focus on the UK’s Budget release today


    Global equities sold-off last week amid some disappointing corporate earnings data in the US and general concerns over Brexit, Italy’s budget and global growth. Overnight we saw a mixed performance in Asian stocks, while US equity futures continued to trade lower
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index rose throughout last week further to the increased safe haven demand, but retraced some of its gains on Friday
    EURUSD traded with an offered tone last week and Barclays Research “see little scope for EUR gains in the near term, amid no immediate resolution to Italy’s budget worries, weaker-than-expected euro area data and poor risk sentiment”
    On Friday, S&P affirmed Italy’s rating at BBB and lowered the outlook to negative from stable. Yesterday, German state elections in Hesse saw Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union’s worst result in the federal state in over 50 years (Bloomberg). Despite these headlines EURUSD has traded relatively unchanged so far this morning
    GBPUSD remained under considerable downward pressure last week amid general USD strength and ongoing concerns of a no Brexit deal. Broader risk sentiment and Brexit headlines are likely continue to dominate price action, but focus is also on today’s Budget and the Thursday’s BoE
    USDMXN rose by over 2% overnight after Mexico voted to abandon the USD13.3bn airport-building project in Mexico’s capital, which has triggered an early reassessment of prospects for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) presidency.

  8. #908
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 Oct 2018

    • US equities closed in the green yesterday, stock gains also continued in Asia overnight
    • GBPUSD dropped as “no-deal” Brexit reportedly poses risks to the UK’s rating by S&P
    • USDJPY was little changed overnight after BoJ kept its policy and forward guidance unchanged


    US equities closed the day higher yesterday amid strong results from chip and transport stocks (Reuters). The gains continued in Asia, where equities traded higher across the board, helped by headlines that China may support its markets (Reuters)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index continued to hit fresh YTD highs. AUDUSD was the notable underperformer in the G10 space overnight after both Australia’s inflation and Chinese manufacturing PMI data missed estimates however AUD has retraced some of its losses since
    GBPUSD fell yesterday after S&P warned that a “no deal” Brexit could lead to contracting growth for two consecutive years and thus constitutes a relevant rating consideration (Bloomberg). This saw GBPUSD dip below 1.27 at one point, reaching its lowest level in over two-months
    EURUSD traded lower yesterday amid ongoing concerns about Italy’s fiscal stability. The EU Commission reportedly warned that Italy’s debt poses risks to the whole euro-zone, and asked Italy to respond with clarifications on its debt reduction plans by 13th November (Bloomberg)
    Today’s focus is on E19 inflation data at 10.00 GMT
    The BoJ left its policy rate and forward guidance unchanged at its two-day MPM, and slightly lowered its real GDP growth forecast for FY18 as well as its core CPI inflation projections for FY18, FY19 and FY20. USDJPY has traded relatively unchanged thus far
    Barclays Research continue to expect the BoJ “to forge ahead with stealth normalization even in the area of yield curve control, effectively allowing long-term yields to rise”

  9. #909
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Nov 2018

    • Global equities traded higher yesterday and overnight amid improving risk sentiment
    • GBPUSD rallied on headlines that UK financial services companies may retain access to European markets after Brexit
    • Focus is any further Brexit news and the BoE’s MPC today at 12.00 GMT


    US equities continued to rise yesterday helped by strong corporate results. Their Asian counterparts also traded higher overnight amid the relief in market sentiment, only the Nikkei traded lower following two days of gains
    GBPUSD rallied c.0.7% overnight approaching 1.29 this morning on a report that the UK may have secured a tentative deal that would provide UK financial services companies with continued access to European markets after Brexit (The Times)
    Meanwhile the UK also reportedly said there was no set date for a deal, contradicting earlier headlines that the 21st November would be the deadline (Reuters)
    Today we get UK Manufacturing PMI data at 09.30 GMT but headline risk around Brexit remains elevated
    Focus will also be on the BoE’s MPC meeting and the inflation report at 12.00 GMT. Barclays Research expect “the MPC’s “gradual and limited” rhetoric to remain largely in place with a unanimous vote to maintain the status quo on rates and asset purchase facility”
    Elsewhere, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded higher yesterday but dropped sharply overnight as GBP and EUR gained versus the greenback. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD outperformed overnight as Australia’s trade surplus beat estimates by a wide margin

  10. #910
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Nov 2018

    • Stocks climb amid fresh hopes for trade talks
    • GBPUSD strengthens on Brexit optimism and hawkish bias from the MPC
    • Focus on the US October employment report today


    Overnight, stocks in Asia rallied on a report that US President Donald Trump had asked officials to draft possible terms for a trade agreement with China ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 later this month (FT)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng headed for its biggest rise in more than three years, and the onshore and offshore renminbi strengthened. Futures on US and UK equity gauges also climbed, whilst the dollar steadied ahead of the US employment report later today
    In Europe, reports that the UK had reached an agreement with the EU over post-Brexit financial services prompted GBP to rally throughout yesterday, with GBPUSD over 2% higher on the day
    Amidst the Brexit headlines, the Bank of England MPC unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged at the November meeting, as widely expected
    Barclays Research view that “much of the November Inflation Report communication focused on Brexit and the “what if…” policy discussion regarding rates... The Brexit discussion overshadowed an otherwise hawkish bias by the Bank, supported by the view that the current slowdown in activity, both domestic and abroad, would be temporary”
    In focus today will be the US October employment report, with Barclays Research expecting nonfarm payrolls to rebound, rising by 200k on the month, in line with consensus, average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m and the U3 unemployment rate to fall to 3.6%

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