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  1. #811
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 June 2018

    • Fed upgrades language and signals a steeper path of policy
    • US-China trade tariff concerns resurface; USD pares back gains
    • Focus on ECB meeting today

    The Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, as expected, and signaled two more hikes this year and three next, as the median projection for interest rates moved higher for 2018 and 2019
    Although the increase in the median went against Barclays Research expectations in this meeting, the move brings the Fed’s appropriate policy path more in line with our official baseline outlook. We expect above-trend growth, modest inflation, and a declining unemployment rate to lead to two further hikes in 2018 and four more in 2019
    The initial reaction of USD broadly higher and 10Y UST yields testing 3% once again was short-lived as concerns about US tariffs on China resurfaced (WSJ)
    China’s central bank also held off from immediately raising borrowing costs following the U.S. Federal Reserve, a decision that came just as economic data for May showed that the economy is losing steam
    The debate on the UK withdrawal bill continued yesterday, with the government defeating the modifications proposed by the Lords, albeit by making concessions
    The thorny issue of the Irish border remains, and according to the latest Barclays Research survey, investors seem skeptical that UK and EU negotiators will reach an agreement over the issue in a timely manner
    Attention now turns to the ECB meeting later today. Barclays Research do not expect policy changes, with the ECB likely only discussing policy options, and keen to see more data
    Barclays Research expect the tapering of QE to be announced in July, although an announcement today cannot be completely discarded; and expect that the staff macro projections are likely to show a slight downward revision of near-term growth and an upward revision to headline inflation
    EURUSD support 1.1715 with 1.1830/50 initial resistance to break ahead of 1.1900 and the key 1.2000 level

  2. #812
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 June 2018

    • EUR falls after the ECB convey a modestly dovish tone in their governing council meeting
    • Both US and UK May retail sales beat expectations
    • Focus today on euro area inflation, Russia central bank meeting and US Industrial production

    European stocks and bonds rallied and the euro fell after the ECB conveyed a modestly dovish tone in their governing council meeting yesterday
    The Governing Council announced that net asset purchases are expected to fall from €30bn to €15bn per month in Q4 and then end in December 2018 and that the first DFR hike would occur no earlier than September 2019
    This change in forward guidance was on the more dovish side, versus our expectations of a first hike in June 2019. Following the meeting, we have pushed out our forecasts for the monetary policy path by three months: we now expect the first DFR hike of +15bp to be delivered in September 2019, followed by a +25bp hike in the DFR and MRO in Q1 20
    GBPUSD followed EURUSD lower, then underperformed on headlines that the government faces further rebellions over the Lords’ amendments next week. GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3200 ahead of 1.3000 with resistance at 1.3450
    Both US and UK May retail sales beat expectations yesterday. US retail sales rose 0.8% m/m driven by gasoline station sales and building materials. We have revised our Q2 US GDP forecast to 3.5% q/q to take account of stronger private consumption. UK retail sales rebounded strongly in May thanks to warm weather and royal wedding celebrations. However, we still expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.4% q/q with downside risks since retail sales have been the most optimistic indicator in May
    Focus today will be on the Central Bank of Russia meeting, where we expect the CBR to make its final 25bp rate cut of this cycle as the sharp drop in the ruble has not had a significant impact on inflation which has remained at all-time lows

  3. #813
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 June 2018

    • Global trade concerns reignite on US-China dispute
    • Oil falls ahead of key OPEC meeting this week
    • Focus on upcoming central bank meetings; in G10, SNB, Norges Bank and BoE


    Asian stocks fell to begin the week amid investor concern that the exchange of threats between China and the US could lead to a full-blown trade war
    The US announced the imposition of 25% tariffs to $50bn of imports from China and published the final list of targeted goods last week. China has announced that it will retaliate in kind, imposing tariffs with equal scale and equal intensity on imports from the US
    A significant medium-term escalation in the US-China dispute could meaningfully affect East Asia and weigh on currencies such as the TWD, KRW, MYR, SGD and HKD
    Oil fell ahead of a key OPEC meeting this week, with major oil producers to meet in Vienna on June 22-23 to discuss the possibility of output increases
    The largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are pushing for an increase to offset expected production drops from Iran and Venezuela, while ensuring they preserve market share. Other producers would prefer to keep prices stable and higher for longer, which would be needed to restart the investment cycle
    In the UK, the Bank of England meets on Thursday; we expect no change in the policy rate, and for the BoE to largely repeat the message of the May inflation report. We expect the split in the MPC on rates to remain (7-2 for status quo)
    Ahead of the BoE meeting, the House of Lords takes up the Brexit withdrawal bill today after dramatic votes in the Commons, with headlines likely to drive Sterling volatility
    GBPUSD support at 1.3200 with resistance at 1.3450-75. EURGBP support at 0.8720 ahead of 0.8690 with resistance at 0.8800-50

  4. #814
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 June 2018

    • Immigration issues cause political tension in Germany
    • Trade tensions between the US and China escalate on talk of further tariffs
    • Markets look ahead to OPEC meeting on Friday

    In an otherwise relatively quiet session yesterday, immigration issues were front and centre on both sides of the pond. In the US, various members of the Trump administration defended the recently instituted policy of separating child migrants from their families at the Mexican border (Bloomberg). On the other side of the Atlantic, the DAX fell 1.4% yesterday in response to potential political instability stemming from disagreement within the country’s ruling coalition on the fate of asylum seekers
    According to several German media reports, this divergence in views has driven an increase in tensions between the CDU and CSU. For now, Chancellor Merkel has asked for the opportunity to agree a Pan-European migration solution at the EU summit on 28-29 June
    Late yesterday, trade tensions between the US and China escalated after President Trump ordered his officials to identify USD200bn worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs of 10%, with another USD200bn after that if Beijing retaliates. China vowed to retaliate “forcefully” (Bloomberg)
    With no critical data today, markets are likely looking ahead to Friday’s OPEC summit. Yesterday member states discussed a potential compromise around a more modest production increase than the estimate previously put forth by Russia. Indeed, although we expect OPEC to agree to raise output and other non-OPEC countries to follow suit, risks to prices are skewed to the upside

  5. #815
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 June 2018

    • Risk sentiment remains suppressed by US/ China trade tensions
    • Focus today will be on the House of Commons vote on the Lords’ amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill
    • EM central banks will hold the spotlight today


    Markets opened lower yesterday after President Trump directed the USTR to identify $200bn of Chinese goods imports as potential targets for further tariffs, $100bn more than previously. Equities and government bond yields both opened lower before trading sideways in an otherwise quiet session
    JPY was the best performing G10 currency, with both CHF and USD also performing as safe-havens
    Today GBP will be in focus given the House of Commons vote on the Lords’ amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill. Meanwhile, according to the FT, the EU is stepping up its contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit
    The National Bank of Hungary revised its inflation forecast higher and now expects headline inflation to exceed its 3% target “temporarily”. While reiterating that it believes “loose monetary conditions” are “necessary” to achieve its inflation target, the NBH added that “the current volatile international environment suggests a more cautious approach”
    EM central banks will hold the spotlight today, with the BSP expected to hike rates in the Philippines by 25bp. Inflation exceeded the 4% upper-bound of the central bank’s target for a third month in May and the governor noted that the BSP “can’t really be oblivious to Fed actions”. Elsewhere, we expect the BCB to keep policy unchanged in Brazil

  6. #816
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 June 2018

    • Most markets rose yesterday as investors look through headlines on trade
    • Focus on GBP ahead of the Bank of England today
    • Barclays Research has published updated Global Outlook and FX Forecasts


    Most markets rose yesterday as investors continue to look through the headlines on trade. The most notable move was a 4bp selloff in US Treasury yields
    Barclays Research estimate the direct impact from the 25% US tariffs on USD50bn of Chinese imports (in two batches) in H2 this year will depress Chinese growth by a mere 0.1pp (though this does account for some policy support, too). Even in a “downside risk” scenario, if the US follows through with the 10% tariffs on USD200bn of Chinese imports, the drag on 2019 China GDP growth would still only be 0.15pp
    Focus remained on UK politics yesterday. Theresa May avoided potential back-bench rebellion and the House of Commons rejected the contentious amendment on whether MPs will have a final say on the next steps of the Brexit negotiations should Parliament reject the final Withdrawal Agreement
    GBPUSD initially rallied following the vote but sterling has not been able to hold on to its gains ahead of the Bank of England today and GBPUSD has dipped below 1.3150 this morning
    At the Bank of England MPC meeting later today, Barclays Research expects largely the same message as the May inflation report, i.e. waiting for the data to confirm its forecasts. Data published since the May IR does not warrant any change in tone as it came in either in line or on the soft side. Accordingly, they expect the rates to remain on hold and the split in the MPC on rates to remain (7-2 for status quo)
    Barclays Research has published an updated Global Outlook. We expect global growth to average 4% in both 2018 and 2019, with the US likely to pull ahead of other major economies for the next few quarters. Trade remains a tail risk to their positive outlook
    Barclays Research now forecast GBPUSD at 1.29 by year end and EURUSD at 1.12

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