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  1. #691
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 12 December 2017

    • Oil extended its gains to its highest level since 2015
    • NZD outperforms on the appointment of the new RBNZ Governor
    • Inflation prints in focus today, including UK CPI

    Global equity markets were mixed. US equities advanced after markets shrugged off a non-fatal explosion in New York but Asian gauges declined, including the Nikkei 225 which retreated from its 26-year high. Brent crude oil extended its gains above $65/brl to its highest level since 2015, likely supported by pipeline closures in the North Sea.
    In FX, the USD held steady despite fairly muted trading volumes ahead of this year’s last Federal Reserve and European Central bank meeting. Most notably, NZD outperformed vs. its G10 peers rallying on the appointment of Adrian Orr as the new RBNZ Governor, given his previous role as CEO of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.
    In data yesterday, Turkey posted 11.1% y/y growth in Q3 exceeding expectations on the back of stronger-than-expected private consumption. In light of this outcome, Barclays Research raised its 2017 full-year growth forecast to 6.8% y/y but kept 2018 forecasts unchanged at 4.1% y/y. Focus now turns to the CBT meeting on Thursday.
    A number of inflation prints will be in focus today. Nations reporting include Sweden, India, Poland and Romania, but the UK print will carry most significance. We expect headline CPI to remain at 3.0% y/y, in line with consensus. In the US we expect final PPI to have risen 2.9% y/y in November, also in line with consensus
    GBP price action has been fairly muted ahead of today’s inflation print and the employment report (Wednesday). Our traders find GBPUSD support at 1.3300 and 1.3200, with resistance at 1.3500. Meanwhile, EURGBP finds support at 0.8690 with short-term resistance around the 200 DMA at 0.8803.

  2. #692
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 December 2017

    Dollar Solid Ahead of FOMC
    The US dollar climbed ahead of the Wednesday's FOMC decision on signs of rising inflation. The Australian dollar was the top performer on Tuesday while the euro lagged. Japanese machine orders and the RBA's Kent are up before Yellen.
    The US PPI report doesn't always foreshadow headline inflation but is often a clue. The November report showed pipeline pressures at the highest since February 2012, up 3.1% y/y compared to 2.9% expected. The US dollar got a lift from the report and continued higher for much of the day.
    The USD also benefited from Congressional talk that passing the unified tax was imminent. That presents two-sided risks but early details show a 21% corporate tax rate, which is a touch higher than the 20% in the initial bill. What will matter more is how deductions and R&D are credited.
    USD/JPY rose as high as 113.75, which was the best since Nov 14. The pair is slowly approaching the tough zone of resistance in the 114-115 range. It's a zone that's been tested four times in the past year and held.
    The day ahead could be a big one on that front. If the FOMC hikes rates (an almost sure bet) and delivers some hawkish hints, along with a stimulative tax package, it could clear the way for a dollar rally into year end. However if the Fed decides to stay coy before Powell takes the reigns and the tax plan disappoints, the dollar could just as easily head in the other direction.
    Before then, some Asia-Pacific data could move markets. The RBA's Kent is due up at 0000 GMT. The market is increasingly expecting the RBA to stay on the sidelines for the first half of 2017 or longer. Yesterday's soft Q3 house price data underscored the challenges.
    Another report to note is the October Japanese machine orders report. The consensus is for a 2.9% rise after the 8.1% drop in September.

  3. #693
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 14 December 2017

    • Fed increased rates by 25bp as widely anticipated
    • PBoC also hiked rates for the third time this year
    • Several other central banks are in focus today, including the BoE and ECB

    Equities were mixed, with European markets underperforming while US markets printed modest gains. At its December meeting, the Fed increased rates as widely expected by 25bp to 1.25-1.5%, but the USD and UST yields declined as there were two dissenters to the hike decision.
    The FOMC made minor changes to the statement but made a substantial upward revision to projected real GDP growth in 2018 to 2.5% from 2.1%, including effects from fiscal policy changes, but kept the inflation forecast unmoved. The median policy path remained unchanged at three hikes per year in 2018 and 2019, broadly in line with our expectation.
    The PBoC also hiked rates yesterday, raising the short-term and medium policy rates by 5bp. This is the third such move in 2017 and is consistent with our general outlook. Barclays Research now expect the PBoC to hike by a further 5-10bp after the expected Fed moves in 2018.
    Market reaction to the UK employment report was fairly muted. UK employment growth continued to weaken in October but nominal wages recovered back to growth levels last seen 12 months ago.
    Despite GBP selling off on uncertainty about PM May’s leadership and recovering after reports of the potential for a softer Brexit, a weaker USD dominated GBPUSD price action overnight taking the pair above 1.3400.
    Our traders see next GBPUSD resistance at 1.3450 ahead of 1.3550 and support is at 1.3300 ahead of 1.3200. Meanwhile, EURGBP remains within the 0.8775-0.8840 range.
    Several other central banks are in focus today, including the ECB, BoE, Norges Bank, Bank of Indonesia and Banrep. Barclays Research expect rate increases in Turkey of 100bps in the late liquidity window rate, which is broadly anticipated by the market; a hike below 75bps could put pressure on TRY.

  4. #694
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 15 December 2017

    • ECB and BoE both kept rates unchanged as expected
    • INR rallied on results of a crucial local election
    • US Industrial production data in focus today

    Most Asian equities declined overnight whilst the USD came under pressure after Republican Senator Marco Rubio threatened to oppose the tax legislation unless Senate leaders agree to a larger child tax credit. In a busy day of central bank meetings, the BoE and ECB meetings were largely uneventful keeping policy unchanged as widely expected.
    The Bank of England MPC left monetary policy unchanged in a unanimous 9-0 vote. In our view, this highlights that the BoE is now in a ‘wait and see’ mode after the November hike. The BoE acknowledged that progress was made in regards to the first stage of Brexit negotiations and would use the February meeting as a chance to adjust forecasts based on Brexit progress.
    At the EU summit, European leaders voiced support for PM Theresa May after a key Brexit vote defeat, which saw 11 members of her own party vote against her.
    We continue to expect the BoE to next hike in November 2018, but will likely reassess our view after the February inflation report.
    The ECB also remained on hold at the December meeting, as widely expected after the APP extension announced in October, but revised its 2018 inflation forecasts to 1.4% from 1.2%. President Draghi characterized euro area growth as ‘strong’ and stated that there has been a big drop in economic slack.
    Nevertheless, Barclays Research “…continues to think that the ECB will exit its stimulatory policies faster than consensus expectations…”.
    Norges Bank and Bank Indonesia also kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of Turkey disappointed markets hiking rates by 50bp (vs. 100bp expected) taking USDTRY higher on the news above 3.8800
    Elsewhere, INR rallied after exit polls showed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party looked set to retain power in his home state of Gujarat, a result that is key to sustaining momentum ahead of India’s national elections early 2019.

  5. #695
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 18 December 2017

    • EU announces progression to second phase of Brexit negotiations
    • Politics remain in focus with the potential vote on the US tax reform and Catalonian elections
    • Several central bank meetings also in focus this week

    Global equities gained with the S&P 500 closing at record highs on Friday after a Republican agreement on the shape of US tax cuts aimed at boosting growth in the US. Despite the USD starting the week lower than its G10 peers this morning, our traders have noted an immense year end demand for USD which is likely to lift the currency into 2018 .
    In the US, Congress made rapid progress on reconciling the differences between the House and Senate tax bills, paving the way for a vote this week. The GOP is expected to deliver a final version of the tax cut bill that could be signed into law as early as Christmas week. The potential passage of the US tax bill could also provide some support to the USD into the holiday break.
    Focus will also be on the release of PCE inflation data and FOMC minutes this week.
    At the EU summit on Friday, European leaders agreed to move onto the second phase of Brexit negotiations. Barclays Research thinks “…this helps reduce the risk of an early negotiation breakdown and increases the possibility of a prolonged transition period…”.
    In Europe, the outcome of the Catalonian election on Thursday will be closely watched. Recent polls (Metroscopia) suggest that the pro-independence parties will not win the majority of the popular vote.
    We think EURUSD is priced for a positive outcome; hence, a scenario in which further tensions arise could weigh on the EUR.
    Elsewhere in EM, ZAR rallied to a three-month high (vs. USD) as delegates at the ruling ANC conference elect a new leader. Cyril Ramaphosa, the anti-corruption candidate, is expected to win the contest as President Zuma’s successor.
    Several central bank meetings are also in focus this week. We expect the BoJ (Friday), Riksbank (Wednesday), NBH (Tuesday), BoT (Wednesday) and CBC (Thursday) all to keep their policy rates unchanged.

  6. #696
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 December 2017

    • Equity markets gain on US tax bill optimism
    • Ramaphosa elected as the ANC president
    • Euro area inflation printed at 1.5% for November

    US equity markets closed in the green yesterday and the S&P 500 reached a new record high on optimism that the US tax bill will get passed before Christmas. US Senator Collins, who previously had not declared how she would vote, announced her support for the bill which should all but ensure that it gets passed this week.
    Asian equity markets generally followed their US counterparts higher overnight whilst USD remained stable in a quiet session in FX markets.
    In South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa was elected new ANC President on a tight vote of 2261 to 2440, prompting ZAR to strengthen by more than 4% yesterday versus USD before stabilizing around 12.75. Barclays Research has revised its USDZAR forecast lower, but warns of ongoing uncertainty regarding political leadership, especially given that Mabuza is the new Deputy President.
    Euro area headline inflation for November printed at 1.5%, edging up 0.1pp from October, mainly led by higher energy prices. Barclays Research expects Euro Area inflation to gradually fall in coming months as some components like food and services seem to be losing momentum.
    The December RBA meeting minutes released earlier today had little impact on markets and AUD was relatively unchanged despite the bank expressing an increased confidence that economic growth will pick up next year.

  7. #697
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 20 December 2017

    • US tax bill passed in the Senate
    • Riksbank rate decision in focus this morning
    • New Zealand Q3 GDP released this evening

    US equity markets closed marginally lower on the day yesterday and the S&P 500 reversed some of its recent gains dropping around 0.2%. In FX, Asian EM currencies gained against USD across the board, while NZD was a notable underperformer in G10 space dropping 0.9% from yesterday’s highs on the back of lower-than-expected November trade data.
    The US Senate passed the US tax bill with a 51-48 majority last night and sent it on to the House of Representatives for a final vote today. The USD remains subdued ahead of this key event .
    The Riksbank left its repo rate unchanged at -0.50% this morning as was widely expected and the bank reiterated its forecast for a first rate hike sometime in mid-2018.
    The bank also announced that starting in January 2018, it will begin reinvestments of redemptions and coupon payments from its bond portfolio which will continue until the middle of 2019 at least
    In the UK, the Bank of England could present plans today to allow European banks to offer financial services under existing rules after Brexit.
    New Zealand’s Q3 GDP report is due this evening (Thursday local time) and expectations are for a moderation in growth to 2.4% y/y (prev. 2.5% y/y). Barclays Research expects a weaker-than-expected print to dampen the NZD but it maintains the view that further NZD weakness is limited and that concerns about the Labour-NZ First coalition are overdone.

  8. #698
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 21 December 2017

    Gold Gains Ground, Investors Eye Final GDP
    Gold has posted gains in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1265.24, up 0.30% on the day. On the release front, Existing Home Sales improved to 5.81 million in November, its strongest pace since December 2006. Thursday is a busy day in the US, with the release of third quarter Final GDP. We'll also get a look at the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims.
    It's been a tough battle for Republicans, but President Trump's election pledge to implement major tax reform is on the verge of becoming law. The tax bill was passed in the House of Representatives and the Senate on Tuesday, but the bill is being sent back to the House for another vote on Wednesday due to a procedural requirement. The legislation is expected to be ratified by the House and will then be sent to Trump to be signed into law. As expected, the congressional votes went along party lines, with the Senate narrowly approving the bill by a count of 51-48. This marks the first major overhaul of the US tax code in 30 years, and reduces corporate taxes from 35% to 21%. After failing to overturn Obamacare, the Republicans can finally chalk up their first legislative victory in the Trump administration, ahead of Congressional elections in 2018.
    The US economy has been firing on all cylinders, marked by strong growth and low unemployment. The fly in the ointment has been inflation, which remains well below the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%. The economy gets a report card for its third quarter performance, with the release of Final GDP on Thursday. Investors expect another banner quarter, as the estimate stands at 3.3%, which would be unchanged from the Preliminary GDP release. We could see some movement in gold prices following the GDP release.

  9. #699
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 December 2017

    • Global equity markets mixed overnight
    • Catalonian election result weighed on EUR
    • MXN underperformed as a result of raised political risks

    Asian equity markets rose overnight whilst their US counterparts broadly fell as US growth data came in slightly below consensus at 3.2% y/y. In FX, EUR fell against all G10 peers on the back of Catalan separatists winning the regional elections and news that Germany’s politicians still consider the possibility of a minority government in coalition talks.
    In Spain, the pro-independence parties retain majority in Catalonian parliament which prompted EURUSD to drop to below 1.1820.
    In line with recent polls and Barclays Research, the three pro-independence parties (JxCAT, ERC and CUP) won a majority of seats in the Catalonian parliament: 70 MPs out of a total of 135, which is two MPs less than they won in 2015 which could cause continued pressure on political stability in Spain and the EU.
    In EM, MXN underperformed and dropped to the lowest level since March against USD as a result of a corruption probe involving the ruling PRI party.
    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. This publication will resume on the 2rd of January 2018.

  10. #700
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 28 December 2017

    Dollar Selloff Accelerates as Long Treasury Yields Dive
    Dollar's selloff accelerates overnight on sharp selloff in treasury yields and stays weak in Asian session. 10 year yield lost -0.053 to close at 2.414, well below last week's high at 2.499. Worse than expected consumer confidence reading was seen as a factor. Conference board consumer confidence dropped to 122.1 in December versus consensus of 128.2. Year end reposition was seen as another factor in the movements in bonds. But probably, the continuous flattening of yield curve is worsening before year end as markets are not to optimistic with the Republican's tax plan.
    For the momentum, near term outlook in 10 year yield is still bullish with 2.314 support intact. And rise from 2.034 is still in mild favor to extend to 2.621 resistance. But upside momentum has been clearly weak. And break of 2.314 will extend the corrective pattern from 2.621 with another decline, possibly a test on 2.034, before completion.
    Summary of opinions of December BoJ meetings showed that due to improving economic outlook, there were calls for discussions on raising interest rate or cutting ETF purchases. One member noted urged the central bank to consider whether "adjustments in the level of interest rates will be necessary" if inflation and economic outlook improves further. Another board member warned of side effects of ETF purchases.
    Released from Japan today, retail sales rose 2.2% yoy in November, above expectation of 1.0% yoy. Industrial production rose 0.6% mom in November, above expectation of 0.5% mom.
    Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively light again today. ECB monthly bulletin will be a focus in European session. From US, jobless claims, trade balance, wholesale inventories and Chicago PMI will be released.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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