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  1. #901
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Oct 2018

    • US equities traded lower yesterday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
    • China GDP growth slowed down to weakest pace since 2009
    • GBPUSD dropped in the absence of any breakthroughs at the EU Summit


    US equities closed in the red yesterday as investors acclimatized to the Fed continuing its gradual policy normalization and as tensions with China and Saudi Arabia continued to put pressure on sentiment. Most of the Asian equities traded higher however, led by a recovery in Chinese shares after the government announced potential support for the market (Reuters)
    Overnight, the release of Q3 China GDP showed that economic growth decelerated to its weakest pace since 2009, disappointing market expectations
    In response, Chinese officials dismissed the weakness in data and announced that they may support the stock market by allowing bank wealth management subsidiaries to invest directly in stocks (Reuters)
    Barclays Research warns that “externally, we continue to see downward pressure on growth largely from unfavourable demand amid a likely protracted trade war”
    In FX, the USD rallied across the board except versus JPY as safe-haven demands put downside pressure to USDJPY. EURUSD traded lower amid widening BTP-Bund spreads and ongoing concerns over Italy’s financials
    The EU reportedly responded negative to Italy’s budget calling it “unprecedented” (Bloomberg); markets will watch next week’s rating agency reviews of Italy closely
    GBPUSD dropped sharply yesterday amid a firmer USD and on the back of continued uncertainty and controversial Brexit rhetoric from negotiators at the EU Summit. This morning, GBPUSD has traded steadily above 1.30 thus far ahead of BoE Governor Carney’s speech at 17.10 BST

  2. #902
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Oct 2018

    • Chinese equities traded higher overnight on hopes of government support
    • Moody’s downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt, focus on S&P’s review this Friday
    • GBPUSD remains subject to headline risk surrounding Brexit


    US equities saw a mixed performance on Friday but Chinese shares continued to trade higher overnight as the hopes for potential market support boosted sentiment for a second session (Reuters). JPY fell against all of its G10 peers amid the improved risk appetite in Asia
    China released a detailed draft plan for personal income tax cuts over the weekend (Reuters) which supported a risk-on session overnight
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index rose last week overall amid hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. GBPUSD came under pressure amid broad-based USD strength and in the absence of meaningful progress at the EU summit with regards to Brexit negotiations
    With no major data releases this week, market attention will likely remain on Brexit developments
    Moody’s downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt by one notch on Friday, avoiding junk territory, and placed the outlook as ‘stable’. EURUSD rose on Friday as Italian bonds rallied on the news that bonds remain above ‘junk’
    This week, S&P will review Italy’s credit rating on Friday. Barclays Research believe they will likely also cut the rating by one notch and warn that a one-notch downgrade coupled with placing the sovereign on negative watch “would likely weigh on sentiment, pushing EURUSD close to, or even marginally below, its year-to-date lows”
    In EM, past currency depreciation and higher oil prices are likely making central banks more hawkish. Nonetheless, Barclays Research expect central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and Russia to stay on hold this week while they assess the effect of previous hikes

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