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  1. #621
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 17 August 2017

    • USD and UST yields fall on dovish FOMC minutes
    • UK unemployment drops to 42-year low but pay growth remains weak
    • ECB minutes in focus today

    Asian equity indices were mixed this morning, despite the rally in equities in the US and Europe. Stocks in Japan were slightly lower, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.1% on the day, likely on the back of a strengthening JPY.
    The UK employment report for June showed robust job creation with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and surveys suggest this momentum could extend well into H2 17.
    Average weekly earnings growth picked up slightly to 2.1% 3m/y in June, back to April’s figure.
    GBP struggled to rally following the data however, but opens higher this morning further to a more dovish outcome from the FOMC. GBPUSD support at 1.2840 ahead of 1.2800 and 1.2585. Resistance at 1.3060 and 1.3165.
    Yesterday evening, the FOMC minutes were perceived as dovish by the market, with the committee expressing heightened concerns about low inflation and “some participants” suggesting the committee remain patient until evidence of firming inflation is in hand before moving to the next rate increase.
    The USD and UST yields fell, with markets now currently pricing c. 40% probability of a December rate hike.
    The ECB minutes published today at 12.30 will be closely scrutinized to determine the Governing Council’s comfort with recent EUR appreciation which poses a threat to the bank’s inflation target.
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 08-17-2017 at 12:50 PM.

  2. #622
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 22 August 2017

    • Risk sentiment continues to drive markets in thin trading
    • Safe haven assets retrace their gains whist equities and EM FX remain bid
    • Focus on UK CBI trends data at 11.00 this morning

    Ahead of Jackson Hole later this week, equity markets rose in Asia whilst USDJPY traded back above 109 after risk continued to drive sentiment in thin trading. European stock-index futures climbed after the S&P 500 Index halted a two-day slide.
    Market reaction to Donald Trump’s speech yesterday, outlining a new strategy for the U.S’s engagement in Afghanistan, was limited.
    With most safe haven currencies retracing their gains after last week’s rally, EM FX traded bid whilst the USD sold off vs. most G10 currencies.
    Despite a broadly quiet session yesterday, EURUSD still managed to trade roughly 100 pips low to high. Meanwhile, GBPUSD traded a quiet range but briefly rallied back above 1.2900 against a backdrop of the weaker USD.
    We think GBP sentiment remains weak after last week’s inflation print, as evidenced by EURGBP continuing its grind higher. Our trader sees EURGBP support at 0.9100 and resistance at 0.9200 initially. In GBPUSD, resistance steps in at 1.2950 before 1.3000, whilst 1.2840 is likely to provide short term support ahead of 1.2800 .
    In a quiet day of data, focus turns to UK CBI trends data at 11.00. At 13.00, ECB Vice-President Constancio’s speaks on “Inequality and the Distributional Impact of Macroeconomic Policies”.

  3. #623
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 23 August 2017

    • Euro Falls on Fears of Cooling German Economy; Dollar Rallies Across Board
    • Dollar Regains a Few Ticks Within Established Ranges
    • Canadian Retail Sales Volumes Up Again in June
    • The Dollar Tax Trade

    The US dollar trade is slowly evolving into a bet on Washington and its ability to deliver a tax cut. USD was the top performer while NZD lagged. Japan manufacturing PMI from Nikkei is up next. After closing the USDJPY short yesterday w/ 185 pip-gain, 6 trades are currently in progress (all in green) 2 in FX, 2 in indices 2 in metals.
    Ray Dalio+ the head of the world's biggest hedge fund, wrote on Monday that markets are more sensitive to politics than any time in our lifetimes. We see it every day in the way that political headlines have more impact than economic data.


    A big part of Tuesday's USD rally was the increasing sense that Trump is morphing into a classic Republican, something we warned about to start the week. It began with the ouster of Bannon on Friday and continued with the embrace of the war in Afghanistan. If markets conclude that he will be more like George W. Bush than Candidate Trump in the rest of his term, then the implied FX impact could be the one Ashraf warned about 7 months ago here.

  4. #624
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 24 August 2017

    • Trump concerns weigh on Asia trading ahead of Jackson Hole
    • Euro area August “flash” PMI’s surprise slightly to the upside
    • ECB’s Hansson says EUR strength is due to economic growth

    In yesterday trading, all major US equity benchmarks fell with the S&P shedding 0.45% following Trump’s pledge to build a wall along the border with Mexico even “if we have to close our government”. Further concerns about the Trump administration’s ability to enact its fiscal agenda also weighed on Asian equities ahead of a meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole.
    Euro area August “flash” PMI’s surprised slightly to the upside, inching up to 55.8 on stronger manufacturing. German composite PMI came in above expectations, bouncing back to 55.7 (+1.0 point), as manufacturing recouped last month's loss. Meanwhile, French composite PMIs also surprised to the upside in August, remaining at July's six-month low of 55.6 vs. expectations of a slight drop.
    In our view, PMIs suggest that euro area is on track for a 0.5% q/q Q3 GDP growth with strong manufacturing driving sentiment.
    Better than expected Euro Area PMI’s combined with further concerns following Trump’s threat to shut down the government unless he get funding for the border wall saw EURUSD rally back above 1.1820 yesterday (but fall back below 1.1800 on London open).
    EURGBP broke through 0.9200 to reach an 8-year high of 0.9237 (Bloomberg) on no fundamental catalyst other than FX flow.
    Overnight, ECB Governing Council member and Estonian central bank chief Ardo Hansson (hawk) mentioned that he was not concerned about EUR strength as recent economic growth justified the move.
    In our view, EUR price action will likely hinge on Draghi’s speech tomorrow evening at Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, GBP continues to trade softly ahead of UK GDP data this morning. Having broken through 1.2800, GBPUSD now looks to test 1.2600 support with resistance at 1.2850.

  5. #625
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 25 August 2017

    Markets Sit Tight Awaiting Jackson Hole Speeches
    Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off. The highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium is off to a good start, but traders appear to be holding off any huge positions until ECB head Mario Draghi and Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen deliver their key speeches later in the day. Investors are waiting for any clues on further U.S. rates rises, the timing of its balance sheet tapering and if Europe is still looking to rein in stimulus.
    More Infighting In Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump threw shade on his fellow Republicans for putting the government on the brink of a shutdown due to the looming debt ceiling deadline. He said on Twitter on Thursday that Republican congressional leaders could avoid a legislative “mess” if followed his advice to tie debt ceiling legislation a few weeks back.
    Downbeat Medium-Tier U.S. Data. Stronger-than-expected data on U.S. initial jobless claims on Thursday helped the dollar stay positive on the day. The dollar edged higher against the other major currencies, but gains were capped by the release of disappointing U.S. housing sector data and as investors shifted focus to an upcoming global central bankers’ meeting.

  6. #626
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 28 August 2017

    • U.S. Wage growth remains the missing ingredient
    • Brexit Negotiations
    • Will Gold finally breach $1,300?

    The Euro made most of the headlines on Friday, after extending gains to a 2.5 year-high and approaching the 1.2 key psychological level. The single currency has appreciated more than 13.4% since the beginning of the year, and many traders were looking for a signal to cover their long Euro positions.
    Investors have probably priced in a September 'taper' by the ECB, but the big question remains - will the Euro manage to extend gains from current levels, or will it begin a short-term correction? I believe the answer lies in U.S. data this week. When looking at U.S. bonds behavior, spreads between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds have been shrinking since 7 July and are currently standing at 0.83 basis points, which is not good news for the greenback.
    With no tier-one economic data on the calendar and markets in U.K. closed today, Sterling traders are awaiting the results of a new round of talks between the U.K. and the E.U. So far, there are no signs of progress and differing opinions of Brexit Secretary David Davis and his E.U. equivalent Michel Barnier suggest there's a lot to be done to bring both sides into an agreement. Although the pound seems oversold, it is likely to remain under some pressure until positive developments materialize.
    The yellow metal is trading slightly higher on Monday, and it seems gold bulls are trying another attempt to break above $1,300. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed traders have continued to add long positions as yielding assets, and are still providing very little to encourage investors. However, I think U.S. politics will play a significant role in gold's next move. The debt ceiling and Nafta deal are amongst things to be watched closely. If gold gathers momentum and manages to close the week above $1,300, I believe we'll be seeing another leg higher, with a potential to test 2016 highs, around $1,375.

  7. #627
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 29 August 2017

    • Geopolitical tensions prompt a risk off sentiment
    • Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi refrain from speaking on monetary policy at Jackson Hole
    • Focus now turns to European and US inflation data, in addition to the US employment report

    Asian equity markets declined whilst USDJPY gained aggressively on news that North Korea fired a missile over Japan, as investors turned to safe haven assets. With geopolitical tensions prompting a risk off sentiment, Gold extended its rally above $1,300 an ounce and oil prices rebounded as investors weighed the damage from Hurricane Harvey.
    The aftermath of the much anticipated 2017 Jackson Hole Economic symposium left markets disappointed as Federal Reserve Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi both chose not to comment on monetary policy. Less than two weeks before the ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi remained very cautious and did not comment on monetary policy or the recent EUR strength.
    This led to a shift in market positioning which drove EURUSD higher on Friday. Price action remains whippy this morning with the pair trading through the key psychological resistance at 1.2000. Our trader now sees resistance at 1.2050 and 1.2100, with support at 1.1909 and 1.1850.
    Federal Reserve Chair Yellen did not offer investors an opportunity to reassess the likely path of fed funds rate at Jackson Hole on Friday, instead, she spoke on the virtues of stronger regulation.
    With markets pricing in just a 37% chance of a December 2017 rate hike for the Fed, markets now turn to US inflation data (Thursday) and the US employment report (Friday). We expect the headline non-farm payrolls number to have increased by 200k in August, vs. 209k in July.

  8. #628
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 30 August 2017

    • Asian equities traded broadly higher as geopolitical concerns moderated
    • EURUSD declined after breaking the key 1.2000 level for the first time since 2015 yesterday
    • UK data continues to disappoint whilst US and European data held strong

    Asian equity markets were broadly higher, in line with the broader risk sentiment. US President Trump’s measured response to North Korean missile launches and comments from Kim Jong Un suggested that geopolitical tensions will ease off. Safe havens including the JPY and Gold retreated, with USDJPY rallying c. 2% overnight.
    With EURUSD breaking the key 1.2000 resistance level for the first time since 2015, profit taking led the pair to sell off and trade below 1.1950 as geopolitical tensions eased. Our trader sees 1.1909 (previous 2017 high, Bloomberg) as the next support and resistance at 1.2000. Also in line with the USD bid tone, GBPUSD sold off overnight after trading up to 1.2979 (Bloomberg high) yesterday following news that Labour changed its official party stance, looking to seek a transitional deal and to remain within the single market.
    In data releases yesterday, UK house prices registered a 0.1% fall from July to August, bringing the annual rate down to 2.1% from 2.9% in July. While employment growth has been robust, we think sluggish real wage growth suggests housing market activity will remain subdued.
    Elsewhere, US Consumer Confidence rose to 122.9 in August extending the previous month’s gains, and US home prices recorded a modest increase in June rising by 0.1% m/m. In France, Households' consumption of goods rebounded by 0.7% in July, driven by purchases of manufactured goods, erasing the decline recorded the previous month.
    In focus today, markets look to Eurozone confidence data and US Q2 GDP (2nd release).

  9. #629
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 31 August 2017

    • EUR/USD Eases Further as Dollar Extends Rebound on Stronger GDP, ADP
    • USD Thunders Back To Life

    • USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower After US GDP Improvement And Tax Reform Talk


    The USD thundered back to life augmented by startlingly positive US GDP and labour market data. Also, investors were quick to put the recent North Korean flair up in the rear view mirror as haven assets lost their endearment and US equity markets rebounded.
    Risk off flows are becoming an increasingly ephemeral event and are proving to be excellent opportunities for strapping on risk. The latest round of risk aversion was over in a heartbeat as investors continue to bank on amiable central bank policy as opposed to a militaristic escalation in North Korea
    Also, the lack of fire and fury from President Trump and a more calculated While House response was viewed far more market friendly and quickly eased investor angst. All in all the markets regained their composure quickly.
    Hurricane Harvey continues to leave a nasty footprint devastating Southeast Texas, and the Louisiana coastal communities while weighing negatively on crude demand from the heart of the U.S. petroleum refining industry. So while gasoline premium rises, WTI prices continue to fall as there are few venues available to pick up the processing slack.
    But as significantly for currency traders, Harvey’s fallout has inspired a whole new level of debate regarding the debt ceiling showdown as to how the US government will meet federal assistance needs among the debt ceiling debate. But logic should dictate that to not approve a debt ceiling extension would prove to be political suicide for those in opposition given the humanitarian element of this recent natural disaster.

  10. #630
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 4 September 2017

    • Slower Trend in Hiring but Consumers Still Confident
    • Employers added 156,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent. Average hourly earnings rose a tick and are up 2.5 percent over the past year.
    • Manufacturing activity strengthened in August, with the ISM index rising to a six-year high of 58.8.
    • The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 122.9 in August on improved views of current and expected conditions.
    • Headline and core PCE inflation rose 0.1 percent in July. Core inflation is up only 1.4 percent over the past year, which is the smallest increase since late 2015.

    Payroll growth slowed in August with employers adding 156,000 jobs. It is worth noting that the initial print for August payrolls has historically seen the largest upward revisions between the first and third release. Over the past five years, August payrolls have been revised up by an average of 46,000, suggesting the extent of the slowdown may be overstated. That said, job growth for June and July was also revised lower by a total of 41,000 jobs and indicates that the trend in hiring has genuinely eased. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent amid a drop in the household measure of employment. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9 percent.

 

 
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