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  1. #631
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 5 September 2017

    • North Korea continues to be in focus keeping markets in risk off mode
    • Britain is reportedly ready to intensify Brexit talks with the EU
    • The RBA left its cash rate unchanged as expected

    Tension in the Korean peninsula continued to be in focus yesterday as Trump and South Korea’s President Moon agreed to maximize pressure on the North while the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, called for the strongest possible sanctions against North Korea in the Security Council.
    The comments spurred further demand for safe havens assets such as JPY and gold in an otherwise quiet session in markets with the US out for Labor Day.
    In the UK, Brexit headlines suggested that PM May is ready to intensify Brexit talks with the EU and there was speculation around a potential ‘intervention’ speech from PM May later this month.
    While GBPUSD has largely been led by EURUSD recently, more focus has fallen on EURGBP which has a new short term range of 0.9150-0.9250.
    As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.50% this morning and gave little away in terms of new policy guidance.
    The RBA continues to flag downside risks to economic activity from a stronger currency, which it also expects to keep price pressures subdued.
    This morning, Barclays Research expects UK Services PMI to drop to 52.0 for August reflecting poor reported activity in the consumer facing sectors. If realized, it would reach its lowest level in a year.

  2. #632
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 6 September 2017

    • Tension in North Korea continues to weigh on risk sentiment
    • GBP trades with a bid tone despite weaker than expects Services PMI
    • Brazilian assets outperformed as President Temer’s position strengthened

    Global equities and bond yields finished the day mostly lower yesterday as concerns related to North Korea continued to weigh on risk sentiment. The USD weakened following dovish remarks by FOMC member Brainard and the US 10y treasury yield reached a new low for the year (sub 2.07%).
    In a speech in New York, Brainard said that the Fed “…should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target”.
    GBP traded with a bid tone throughout most of yesterday’s session despite August Services PMI coming in lower than expected at 53.2 (vs 53.5).
    The softer than expected PMI print was in line with the weakening trend in recent months as short-term pessimism has fuelled reluctance by businesses to expand capacity.
    Brazilian assets outperformed yesterday as President Temer’s political position appeared marginally stronger following the announcement of a potential review to the plea bargain that supports the corruption accusations against the president.
    Today, a number of central banks will meet including the Bank of Canada, BCB (Brazil) and the National Bank of Poland.
    Barclays Research expects the BoC to “…stay on hold due to subdued inflation, likely disappointing partial market expectations of tightening…

  3. #633
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 7 September 2017

    • Equity markets rise after Trump’s support for raising the debt limit
    • The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a rate hike
    • The ECB meeting will be in focus today

    Asian equity markets have followed US equities higher this morning after President Trump threw his support behind the Democrats’ proposal to raise the debt limit for three months, in addition to providing emergency aid in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.
    North Korean tension has remained in focus as well and South Korea’s Prime Minister warned that their Northern neighbor might launch another missile on Saturday.
    The Bank of Canada surprised markets by hiking its benchmark rate by 25bp, to 1.00%, leading to a sharp move lower in USDCAD by around 2.1% to lows of 1.2146 (Bloomberg) before retracing back above the 1.2200 level
    The bank retained its hawkish bias given strong economic growth but it remains data-dependent and uncommitted to a hiking path due to below target inflation.
    Another central bank surprise yesterday came from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer who announced an earlier than expected resignation effective mid-October.
    Fischer’s resignation leaves the FOMC short of one of its more hawkish members which is likely to reduce the likelihood of a rate hike in December.
    Today the ECB rate decision will be in focus and Barclays Research expects the bank to “…lay the foundations for its future policy announcement, though an update to the forward guidance language is more likely in October…”.
    A removal of the asymmetry around the language of its Asset Purchase Program, a revision to the EU growth forecast and a revision of the bank inflation outlook given recent EUR strength are some factors that could cause increased volatility in EUR today.

  4. #634
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 8 September 2017

    • CAC Gains Ground Despite Dovish ECB Statement
    • Dovish Draghi Fooling No One
    • Debt Limit Fight Postponed amid Increased Fed Uncertainty

    Today has certainly been an explosively volatile trading session for the Euro, despite the European Central Bank leaving its key interest rates and bond purchase stimulus program unchanged.
    The real action started during Mario Draghi's press conference, where Euro bulls and bears were engaged in a fierce tug of war as investors tried to get a fix on the implications of his speech. Although Draghi stated that the recent volatility in the Euro required close attention and is a source of uncertainty, he skillfully prepared the market to expect a QE tapering announcement in October. However, if the Euro continues to trade higher, it could be pushed out to December.
    Despite Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan saying that the Democratic proposal to suspend the debt limit for months was 'ridiculous and disgraceful', President Trump sided with the Democrats. This means that we now have a bipartisan deal on Harvey aid, funding for the government for three months and a suspension of the debt limit until mid-December. The deal came earlier than we had expected, as we thought (in line with Republican members of Congress) the Trump administration would be willing to fight harder for a longer lasting solution to the debt limit. Basically, the deal means the risk of a government shutdown has only been postponed from the end of this month to December. Republicans still need a budget for the fiscal year 2018 (lasting from 1 October 2017 to 30 September 2018), eventually allowing them to avoid filibusters in the Senate through budget reconciliation. However, the main problem for the Republicans remains the internal disagreement between the fiscal hawks and the more moderate Republicans. The former, unlike the latter, wants to make major cuts in fiscal spending.

  5. #635
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 11 September 2017

    • Risk assets gain after North Korea refrains from a missile test
    • GBPUSD rallied above 1.3200 on Friday on broad USD weakness and helped by UK data
    • In a busy week of data, focus will be on the Bank of England


    Risk assets gained overnight, leading to a firm rally in Asian equities. The USD rebounded across the board, with USDJPY trading back around the 108.50 level after dipping to lows of 107.32 on Friday (Bloomberg). Risk sentiment was lifted after North Korea refrained from carrying out an expected missile test over the weekend and reports overnight suggest that hurricane Irma may cause less damage that initially feared.
    Last week, the ECB left its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged, and hinted that a recalibration of guidance potentially awaits in October.
    GBPUSD price action last week was largely driven by USD softness which led the pair to trade above 1.3200, helped by UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production data and a smaller than expected trade deficit. Over the weekend, focus turned back to Brexit as reports (the Independent) stated that MEPs will vote on whether ‘sufficient progress’ has been made to open trade talks with Britain. The vote will take place on 3rd October just before Prime Minister May’s speech at the Conservative conference (4th October), which may be somewhat overshadowed as a result.
    Focus turns to UK inflation data (Tuesday) and the Bank of England meeting (Thursday) where we expect no change to the base rate. We think the Bank of England is likely to turn more hawkish in reaction to ongoing sterling depreciation. Nonetheless, we expect markets to discount this and maintain cautious hiking expectations. Our trader sees GBPUSD short term support at 1.3125 and 1.3000, with 1.3270 (Bloomberg YTD highs) resistance.
    Also this week, several other central banks will hold their policy meetings; we expect no change from the SNB (Thursday), and CBT (Thursday), while the CBR (Friday) should resume its easing cycle, in our view.

  6. #636
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 12 September 2017

    • GBP/USD Remains Supported ahead of Key UK Data and BoE Decision
    • Increased Interest in USD
    • Euro Pulls Back as ECB's Coeure Questions Inflation Path; Pound Holds onto Gains ahead of a Busy Week

    European equity indices (+1%) and US stock-index futures rallied as investors sought risk assets after a feared missile launch from North Korea never materialized and Irma was downgraded. Treasuries, gold and the yen dropped.
    ECB Coeuré said that the exchange rate doesn't weigh on growth the way it once did, offering some comfort to those worried about whether a strong currency would undermine the eurozone's growth outlook.
    Euro bulls, who have a pretty good year so far, are positioning for further gains, with long bets sitting at their highest level in six years. Speculators were holding the biggest net long position on the euro against the dollar since May 2011 ahead of last week's ECB meeting, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
    Britain faces a chaotic exit from the EU if lawmakers vote against legislation designed to sever political, financial and legal ties with the bloc, Britain's Brexit minister David Davis said before a key parliamentary vote.

  7. #637
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 13 September 2017

    • US indices close at record highs
    • GBPUSD rallies to YTD highs prompted by UK inflation data
    • Focus today on UK employment data

    After all three major US indices closed at record highs yesterday, the global equity rally eased in Asia trading. In FX, the USD was broadly supported throughout the day by US equities. NZD was the clear outperformer amongst commodity currencies after a poll showed that the governing National Party could rule alone after the country’s general election (23 September).
    Whilst recent GBPUSD price action has been driven primarily by USD weakness, higher than expected UK inflation was the key driver for the GBPUSD rally yesterday. UK CPI printed at 2.9% y/y (vs. consensus 2.8%) and RPI at 3.9% (vs. consensus 3.7%), which took GBPUSD to new YTD highs of 1.3329 (Bloomberg) and EURGBP through 0.9000.
    Our traders see short term GBPUSD support at 1.3225 ahead of 1.3160, with resistance at 1.3450 and 1.3500. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8980 with resistance at 0.9035-50.
    Elsewhere, Swedish August CPI printed stronger-than-expected at 2.1% y/y, despite the Swedish Krona appreciating almost 6% since the beginning of June. The central bank is likely to look closely at this print to gauge its success in reaching its mandate; we expect the Riksbank to announce that its QE programme will not extend beyond year-end at their October 26 meeting.
    Focus today will be on UK employment data and wage data in particular, ahead of the Bank of England (Thursday). On the labour market, we expect unemployment to remain unchanged, but risks are tilted to the downside as companies seem to have been hiring rather than investing in recent months.

  8. #638
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 15 September 2017

    • Market reaction to another North Korean missile launch was short-lived
    • GBPUSD rallies to new YTD highs after a hawkish Bank of England
    • US inflation surprises to the upside, marginally increasing the likelihood of a December hike

    Another North Korean missile launch overnight saw the unwinding of USDJPY longs, post yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US CPI print, taking the pair to a low of 109.56 (Bloomberg). Market reaction to the missile launch has been short-lived with USDJPY retracing its losses since.
    Yesterday, the Bank of England kept policy setting unchanged but a hawkish rhetoric led gilts to sell off and GBP to rally. We maintain our outlook for unchanged policy, but believe that the September minutes are setting the path to a rate hike, conditional on data confirming the Bank’s forecasts. Markets are pricing c.13bp to the November meeting and c.25bp to the February meeting.
    US CPI surprised to the upside, marginally increasing the likelihood of a December hike. Firmer inflation should reduce FOMC members’ concerns about inflation dynamics and we keep our view that a December hike is likely, although it remains dependent on incoming data. Market pricing for a December hike increased after the August inflation surprise and stands at around 50%.
    GBP has traded with a bid tone since the Bank of England, with GBPUSD making new YTD highs of 1.3450 (Bloomberg) this morning. However, the recent upside inflation surprise in the US adds to risks of a retracement in GBPUSD alongside political risks around Brexit.
    Our traders see strong GBPUSD resistance at 1.3450-1.3500, with support at 1.3380 in the short term ahead of 1.3300. EURGBP support at 0.8865 with resistance at 0.8930.
    In Russia, we expect the CBR to cut 50bp today. The resumption of the easing cycle is supported by historically low inflation and declining inflation expectations. We expect the CBR to bring policy rates down to 7.0% (from 9.0% currently) by mid 2018.
    Last edited by PCMNewsdesk; 09-15-2017 at 01:15 PM.

  9. #639
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 18 September 2017

    • Equity markets rose last week and the GBP outperformed
    • The Fed meeting on Wednesday in focus this week
    • PM May’s speech in Florence on Friday will also be closely scrutinized

    Equity markets finished last week largely higher (~1.5%), GBP outperformed in FX and UK government bonds and front end US Treasuries sold off.
    Hurricane Irma has not done as much damage as feared, though the recent storms hitting the US are likely to weight on US third quarter GDP growth figures.
    GBP was the big mover in G10 last week after a hawkish tone was struck at Thursday’s MPC meeting. Following this, Gertjan Vlieghe, arguably the most dovish MPC member, backed the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric in a speech on Friday, where he stated that a UK rate hike may be needed within months.
    After last week’s developments, Barclays Research has adjusted its outlook for the BoE and now expects the bank to hike interest rates by 25bps in November.
    GBPUSD short term support comes in at 1.3540 ahead of 1.3450 while resistance is found around 1.3620. EURGBP finds support at 0.8750 and resistance at 0.8835.
    Looking to the week ahead, the key economic event is the Fed meeting on Wednesday. We expect no change in interest rates and the announcement of the start of balance sheet normalization. The move has been well telegraphed and should have no major effect when announced.
    The FOMC’s forecasts, however, should remind markets that further tightening is required, supporting short-term US interest rates and the USD.
    On the political front, PM May’s speech in Florence on Friday will be closely scrutinised for any elaboration on three key Brexit issues: the possibility of financial settlement, the shape of the future relationship with the EU and the need for a transition period.

  10. #640
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    Market Review – Fundamental Perspective 19 September 2017

    • Global equity rise and USD consolidates
    • Carney speech at the IMF weighs on GBP
    • Boris Johnson sets out his own vision for Brexit in Daily Telegraph article

    Global equities finished the day largely higher yesterday whilst the USD consolidated against most G10 peers. Focus overnight in FX fell on the RBA minutes which were generally upbeat and did not include any obvious attempts to talk down the currency – AUD strengthened as a result.
    Speaking at the IMF yesterday, MPC Governor Carney outlined the likely impact of Brexit on inflation in a speech that was deemed less hawkish than Vlieghe’s speech on Friday. GBPUSD briefly dipped below 1.3500 following the speech but has since recovered to trade with a 1.3500 handle this morning.
    Barclays Research stated that Carney’s speech was “…consistent with our forecast of a rate hike in November…” but that there is a “…residual risk that the bank does not deliver at all…”.
    UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson set out his own vision for Brexit in a 4,000-word article in the Daily Telegraph yesterday ahead of PM May’s speech in Florence on Friday. PM May reasserted her authority in response but the hint of some political infighting weighed on GBP.
    One of the biggest moves yesterday came in Portuguese government bonds which rallied after S&P upgraded the country to investment grade. The agency’s decision was based on a better growth and fiscal outlook, among other factors.

 

 
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