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Thread: Gold & Silver

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    Gold & Silver

    Silver and gold have both been held down by resistance and have been held up by support. In other words, they are now in no-man's land. If we are to view that the top of a smaller degree 4th wave has been struck, then no new highs should be seen in either of the metals and new lows should be right around the corner. However, if this pullback, which, so far, has held the .618 retrace in silver and the .382 retrace in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), is only a b-wave, a move over the prior highs can give us a much bigger rally in both metals. Such a rally would likely be the c-wave of the larger degree 4th wave. And, this would bring back our higher targets for the metals which we have discussed, ad nauseum, over the last several months. But, silver will now need to take out the 21.50 (a=c) level in a strong fashion if it is going to see 23 or higher. The main issue with being able to distinguish the next larger move as up or down is that the downside can also begin by a corrective looking decline. Since the first downside move would be an a-wave, which does look corrective, until the metals take out their prior highs, we can count this decline as an a-wave of the next 3 wave move down. But, if we take out the prior highs, then it becomes more likely that a c-wave up is taking hold and we are potentially in the larger 4th wave, which will set up the final decline in a 5th wave for the metals. I know this type of analysis is not making it easy to identify to which direction one wants to place money into a short term trade right now, but the more prudent of us will wait until the next pattern is completed to know how to trade the larger degree waves. Since the likelihood that the next downside phase is equal, in my humble opinion, to the next upside movement, I cannot provide confidence as to which side of this trade is more likely at this time. It is not often that I do not have a good read as to where the next move will be taking us, but this can truly go either way based upon the manner in which the market left us on Friday.










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    Silver 20.08.2014 H4 Time Frame


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    Quote Originally Posted by Samirofi View Post
    Silver 20.08.2014 H4 Time Frame

    result:


 

 

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