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  1. #71
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    Soured risk tone improves slightly in New York


    Forex today was starting out negative after a poor start in Asia that followed through into European markets. NY was slightly better and indeed the benchmarks managed a decent turnaround late n the NY session.
    All ears were on the ground for an agreement within German Chancellor Merkel’s coalition government, whereby weekend reports had interior minister Seehofer threatening to resign over migration policy. That agreement came halfway through the NY session and risk bounced on the headlines whereby Merkel’s leadership is safe for the time being. EUR/USD recovered to1.1645, although was down from Friday's close by -0.4%.
    All in all, the bear pressures persist but a short squeeze cannot be ruled out considering the build-up of shorts over the last couple of months. However, EUR/JPY was a weight early doors before a late correction that helped the bulls along. EUR/USD was trading below the 10-D SMA following European markets selling into Asian strength where DE-US spreads & German political concerns weighed the pair down. Sterling was ending the NY shift at 1.3126 -0.61%, within a NY range of 1.3163-1.3095 and was weighed by political concerns where Brexit remain a dominant theme as uncertainties keep the bulls at bay. Cable was also pressured by the broad-based strength in the greenback, dropping as much as 1 cent to 1.3100 before trimming losses to 1.3140 on a wider day's range. As for the cross, EUR/GBP was lower by -0.61% ending the North American session at 0.8854, recovering from the 0.8834 lows in early NY but down from 0.8868 European highs. USD/JPY ended flat overall, but was perky and threatening around 110.90 where US rates underpinned the upside in the dollar and dips were a bargain on the back of the US manufacturing data; (US June ISM manufacturing index 60.2 vs 58.5 expected, Markit US June manufacturing PMI 55.4 vs 54.7 expected). The US 10yr treasury yield initially dropped from 2.86% to 2.82% in London before bouncing to 2.87%on the US ISM. The Fed fund futures yields continue to price in 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.
    As for commodity-FX, the antipodeans were the worst performers as vulnerable to a macro slowdown where China continues to concern. Copper and iron ore are also on their knees, weighing on the Aussie, (copper broke neckline of the year-long top pattern). For AUD/USD, the Asia gains were offset and the pair dropped back below the 10-D SMA as technicals lean bearish, (daily RSI on thin ice around 30). 0.7311 traded as an 18-month low before bulls committed and took the pair back to 0.7340 in a drift when Wall Street bounced. As for the bird, NZD/USD was the worst perform entering NY, falling from 0.6780 to 0.6690 and making a fresh two-year low.
    Key notes from US session:
    ---Wall Street ends choppy day modestly higher
    ---Germany's Seehofer: We have a clear solution to stopping illegal immigration at the German-Austrian border


    Key events ahead in Asia/London:
    Analysts at Westpac offered a breakdown of the key events coming up as follows: "At 2:30pm Syd/12:30pm Sing/HK, the RBA seems certain to keep its cash rate at 1.5% (markets price 0% chance of a move). But there will be interest in the statement, on factors including the ongoing fall in house prices and the pressure on mortgage rates from the rise in banks’ funding costs. The language on inflation should be unchanged, waiting for the Q2 CPI data on 25 July.
    At 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK we see Australia May building approvals data. The headline number is very prone to volatility, as it is buffeted by swings in approvals of high rise developments. Westpac looks for -4% in May, after -5% in Apr, given the accelerating decline in construction-related finance approvals in recent months. The median forecast is 0.0% m/m but the range is wide, from Westpac’s -4% to +5%.
    South Korea releases Jun CPI data, expected to remain low, around 1.3%yr on the core measure.
    The twice-monthly dairy auction takes place in London trade, with only mild risk for the kiwi. Futures price a 1% fall in whole milk powder prices."

  2. #72
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    Iran, world powers in nuclear accord to meet in Vienna on Friday


    Headlines crossed the wires, via Reuters, from the Iranian state news agency, citing that “At the meeting, which will be held at the request of Iran, foreign ministers of Iran and five world powers will discuss a proposed European package and measures to protect the agreement.”

    This comes as Iran seeks to discuss the ways of maintaining the nuclear deal after the US’ withdrawal.

  3. #73
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    Date : 3rd July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: A mixed picture on bond markets, while US stock futures recovered earlier losses and are moving higher, in tandem with UK100 futures after markets continued to struggle with trade angst during the Asian session. Germany’s Merkel managed to find a last minute compromise with Interior Minister Seehofer that will prevent a break up of the union parties – at least for now. The controversy over immigration meanwhile is likely to continue not just in Germany, but across Europe. Today’s calendar has Eurozone Retail Sales and PPI as well as the UK Construction PMI.

    FX Update: The Dollar majors have remained in narrow ranges, overall, though there has still been some movement of note. USDJPY posted a fresh 6-week high of 111.13 before settling lower. Other Yen crosses also saw similar price action with the backdrop of steadying global stock markets seeing the Yen come under some pressure. China’s PBoC once again allowed the Yuan to weaken, with the USDCNY rate this time rising to an 11-month high above 6.6700. China’s central bank is responding to both the impact of US tariffs and broader weakness in emerging market currencies. The Australian Dollar rallied moderately, partly amid the rebound in stock markets and partly on RBA’s policy statement, which, while remaining distinctly neutral overall, was perhaps a little more sanguine than some market participants had expected regarding the risks stemming from a slower, tariff-afflicted Chinese economy. RBA left the cash rate at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated. AUDUSD posted a high of 0.7365, a gain of over 30 pips from Monday’s closing levels. EURUSD has lifted back to the 1.1650 area, extending the rebound from yesterday’s 1.1591 low but so far remaining below yesterday’s high.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK PMI Construction – Expectations – an unchanged 52.5 headline reading.

    * Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – to fall to 55.4 in June after the 56.2 in May.

    * US Factory Orders – Expectations – to rise to 0.1% m/m in May from the -0.8%m/m in April.

    * ECB’s Praet Speech

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
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    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #74
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    Date : 4th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury futures declined in thin volumes, while cash markets are shut for a US holiday. Japan’s 30 year yield dropped below 0.7% as Asian market remained shaky, with Chinese Indices continuing to underperform despite the commitment to a stronger Yuan, as the start of the first round of US tariffs on Friday weighs on sentiment. Most Indices managed to come up from lows in the later part of the session and the Nikkei is still down -0.13%, but also up from lows. Oil prices are higher on the day, with the WTI Future trading at USD 74.64 per barrel.

    FX Update: The Dollar traded softer, led be declines against the Yen, Australian Dollar and most emerging world economies, which seemed to benefit from China’s steadying of the Yuan today. USDJPY opened in Asia at about 110.58-60, then dipped to a 4-session low of 110.27 before setting around 110.40. Stock markets in Asia mostly declined, following a tech-led drop on Wall Street yesterday. China’s Yuan steadied after declining notably last week, on Monday and Tuesday, amid reports that it was at the direction of Beijing. Most emerging market currencies also gained. AUDUSD posted a 7-session high at 0.7424. A record high reading in the Australian June Services PMI, which jumped 4 points to 63.0, gave the Aussie a bid, along with the firming in the Yuan. EURUSD meanwhile, clawed out a 2-session high of 1.1678. Conditions will be thin and direction commitment limited today with US Markets closed for the 4th of July holiday.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German Service PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 53.9,which should leave the composite at 54.8.

    * Eurozone Service PMI – Expectations –expected to remain unchanged at 22 ,which should leave the composite at 54.8, with a slight bias to the downside.

    * UK Service PMI & BoE Speeches- Expectations –is seen steady at 54.0. Events include BoE speeches from Woods and Sarpota as Brexit pressure on the UK mount with May wedged between hard-line Brexiteers and warnings from Brussels that the time for a deal is running out.

    * US Bank Holiday – Independence Day


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
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    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #75
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    China: Ready for trade war and currency battle – Nordea Markets

    After months of on-and-off negotiations, the long-dragged trade war between China and the US is about to kick off, points out the research team at Nordea Markets.
    Key Quotes
    “The two countries are scheduled to impose 25% tariffs on USD 34bn of imports from each other on Friday 6 July, with an additional USD 16bn following soon after. Moreover, Trump threatens to levy 10% tariff on an additional USD 200bn of Chinese imports and yet another USD 200bn if China retaliates. That brings the total amount of Chinese goods potentially subject to higher tariffs to USD 450bn – about 90% of China’s total exports to the US and 3.2% of China’s GDP.”
    The currently confirmed tariff of 25% on USD 34bn of goods implies a net export loss of less than 0.2% of GDP. Given the likelihood of Chinese companies directing their exports to other markets and the authorities stimulating domestic demand to replace the exports lost, the final impact on the Chinese economy is likely even smaller than estimated here.”
    “The current tariff war between China and the US is really the beginning of a long-term rivalry about technological advance.
    “Our baseline scenario is that the Chinese economy can absorb the negative impacts from a trade war with the US. The economy has become much less export dependent since 2008. Gross exports account for 20% of GDP, compared to 45% for investment and 39% for household consumption. If the trade blow becomes too large, the authorities will likely stimulate domestic demand to mitigate the net growth impact.”
    “As we expected, 6.70 proved to be an important threshold for the PBoC when it comes to USD/CNY and triggered verbal intervention on Tuesday by several senior officials, including Governor Yi Gang. The PBoC pledged not to weaponise the currency in the trade war and to maintain currency stability. Both USD/CNY and USD/CNH came down after the statements.”
    “There is a high chance that depreciation pressure on the CNY returns in the coming weeks if trade tensions between China and the US escalate into levying tariffs on more goods. However, we expect the PBoC to maintain a defence level of 6.70 for USD/CNY.
    “We expect USD/CNY to trend down in 3-6 months as the trade war concern gradually recedes and the USD rally has run its course.”

  6. #76
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    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Pound looking for lift from 146.00 amidst a bullish triangle

    • Sterling in a bullish triangle against the Yen as higher lows squeeze the pair against current key resistance.
    • Hourly indicators are middling as the pair loses directional momentum.
    • Traders will want to wait for a confirmation following a break to either side of the triangle.


    Spot rate: 146.17
    Relative change: 0.14%
    High: 146.21
    Low: 145.82
    Trend: Bearish to flat
    Support 1: 145.56 (previous day low)
    Support 2: 145.18 (current week low)
    Support 3: 143.77 (previous week low; technical bottom)
    Resistance 1: 146.48 (current week high)
    Resistance 2: 148.11 (June high)
    Resistance 3: 150.00 (May high; key level)

  7. #77
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    Date : 5th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 1.315% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 2.1 bp at -0.652%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.6 bp after returning from holiday and strong German manufacturing orders as well as Bloomberg source stories suggesting at least some ECB officials see a rate hike in September/October next year, i.e. earlier than current market pricing, will be adding to pressure especially at the short end this morning. Peripherals are outperforming slightly and GER30 and UK100 futures are higher in line with US futures in opening trade. After the release of German orders at the start of the session, the calendar still has Swiss CPI, BoE’s Carney, as well as ECB’s Weidmann and supply from Spain and France.

    FX Update: The Euro is opening Europe firmly, with EURUSD testing the week’s highs at 1.1690-91, EURJPY posting two-day highs above 129.35 and EURCHF ascending into 3-week high territory. The Dollar, outside the case against the Euro, has been trading neutrally, including against most emerging world currencies. The PBoC continued to rein in the yuan, with the offshore USDCNY rate of 6.6478-80 holding below Tuesday’s 11-month low seen at 6.7344. USDJPY continued to orbit the 110.50 level. The stability in currencies belies a heightened state of concern about trade protectionism, with the US on Friday set to implement tariffs on $34 bln of Chinese imports, although equity market weakness, especially in China-focused issues, have taken a whack today.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * BOE Governor Carney and German Buda President Weidmann Speeches

    * US ADP Employment Change – Expectations –expected to remain rise at 190K from 178K in May.

    * US Non-Manufacturing PMI – should fall to 58.0 in June, from 58.6 in May and versus a 12-year high of 59.9 in January.

    * Crude Oil Inventories

    * FOMC Meeting Minutes

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #78
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    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls await an upside break of sideways channel

    • The EUR/JPY closed above the 50-day moving average (MA) on Thursday for the first time since May 2.
    • So, the pair might see an upside break of the sideways channel, in which case the psychological hurdle of 130.00 could be put to test.
    • The Bollinger Bands on the hourly charts have narrowed, so a big move could be in the offing.


    Spot Rate: 129.38

    Daily HIgh: 129.46

    Daily Low: 129.21

    Trend: Bullish above 129.70 (channel resistance)

    Resistance

    R1: 129.53 (upper Bollinger Band)

    R2: 129.70 (channel hurdle)

    R3: 130.00 (psychological hurdle)

    Support

    S1: 129.21 (lower Bollinger Band)

    S2: 128.56 (channel support)
    S3: 128.17 (38.2% Fib R of 124.62-130.36)

  9. #79
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    UK's Brexit Minister Steve Baker resigns alongside David Davis - The Telegraph


    Following earlier reports that Britain's Brexit Secretary David Davis has resigned from his post following Prime Minister Theresa May's latest soft Brexit proposal, a key minister within Britain's Brexit department has also resigned, with Steve Baker quitting his position shortly after Davis.

    The Telegraph's Chief Political Correspondent Christopher Hope broke the news through Twitter, citing unnamed sources: “Steve Baker, Brexit minister, has quit the Government, sources say”.

    Baker's departure represents a significant ramping-up of tensions within the UK's government as hard-line Brexiteers rail against PM May's Brexit proposals which continue to acquiesce control of key issues to EU leaders in Brussels, angering Tories within the parliament.

  10. #80
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    Date : 9th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The US June jobs report was another “Goldilocks” set of numbers for the markets, drawing back in workers from the ranks of the long-term unemployed. Broadbased strength in employment not only helped Wall Street rally but the surge in the labor force and tame wage gain allowed Treasury yields to drift lower, since the report offered no incentive for the FOMC to deviate from its “gradual pace” of normalization. Looking forward, inflation data will dominate in the week ahead, with the Fed comfortably close to its 2% target now. The Fed will also release its Monetary Policy Report on Friday with Chairman Powell’s key follow-up semi-annual testimony on July 17.

    United States: The US Economic calendar will zero in on inflation statistics for the week of July 9. Modest gains in the CPI and PPI are expected, with the y/y readings remaining above the Fed’s 2% target given hard comparisons. The Import Price Index may reveal weakness related to declining oil prices in the month, but export prices should post a modest gain. Consumer Credit (Monday) is projected to rise $12.0 bln in May, following a $9.3 bln gain in April. JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Headline CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in May (Wednesday), as revealed in the advance report, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month, and sales are estimated to rise 0.5% as well, after a 0.8% gain in April. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in June (Thursday), following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7 (Thursday), reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling, and the Treasury budget gap may hit to -$133 bln in June. A 0.2% decline is expected in the Import Price Index in June (Friday), due to crude oil weakness, following a 0.6% gain in May, while export prices are expected to continue to move up 0.1%.

    Fedspeak kicks back into gear with just a week to go before Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony, which will be preceded by the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on Friday, July 13 at 11:00 ET.

    Canada: Canada is focused squarely on the BoC meeting (Wednesday), which it is expected to result in a 25 basis point boost to a 1.50% rate setting. The accompanying monetary policy report should be consistent with additional rate increases, but at a gradual pace. The focus will be on Bank’s view on the ongoing trade/tariff issues, labor market slack and the inflation outlook. A housing-heavy data docket will be an afterthought this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to moderate to a 190.0k pace in June from 195.6k in May. Building permit values are seen dropping 2.0% in May after the 4.6% contraction in April. The New Home Price Index (Thursday) is projected to reveal a 0.1% dip (m/m, sa) in May after the flat reading in April. Existing home sales for June are expected on Friday. The Teranet/National Bank Housing Price Index for June is also scheduled for Thursday.

    Europe: ECB tried to inject calm and prevent rate hike expectations from running ahead when it pledged to keep key rates steady through the summer of next year. But with growth indicators confirming that the recovery is not dead yet and inflation jumping higher, officials are now trying to regain control especially over the short end. ECB speakers will be important in this context. President Draghi will testify to the European Parliament in Brussels (Monday). It will be interesting to see whether he backs recent “source” stories suggesting ECB is eyeing the first rate hike in September/October next year, which would also be the last meetings for Draghi as President.

    Final Eurozone June inflation data is expected to confirm the German HICP rate (Thursday) at 2.1% y/y. The French reading (Tuesday) also is at a 2.1% y/y rate which should leave the overall Eurozone number (due July 18) on course to be confirmed at 2.0% y/y. German data in particular bounced back strongly with May production and orders figures. Yet, while ongoing political uncertainty and risks of an escalating trade war have weighed on some confidence measures, there is some room for an upside surprise in German ZEW confidence (Tuesday). Still, this is investor confidence data which is more impacted by uncertainties and concerns about political events and at least the latest real sector numbers out of Germany have been very encouraging. Indeed, after German production growth was reported at 2.6% m/m in May, rebounds are expected in French (Tuesday), Italian (Tuesday) and Eurozone Production figures (Thursday). The calendar also has trade data for Germany.

    UK: The calendar is fairly quiet in terms of economic releases, highlighted by the June BRC Retail Sales survey (Tuesday), and May Industrial Production and Trade data (also Tuesday).

    The government has — after more than two years from vote-to-leave the EU — finally worked out what it wants from a post-Brexit deal with the EU. This was hammered out in a climactic Cabinet meeting on Friday, which saw the hard Brexiteers give up ground to reach a compromise. The government will seek a “EU-UK free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products,” which essentially means a single market for goods, along with a “facilitated customs arrangement” to address the need for a frictionless border in Ireland. It remains doubtful that the EU will agree to the free market for goods part, however, having maintained that the UK will not be able to cherry pick which parts of the single market to take part in. It also remains uncertain how effective the proposed frictionless customs arrangement will be. There are now only 5 negotiating weeks left until October, when both the EU and UK are looking to have an agreement in place.

    Japan: The May Machine Orders (Wednesday) are seen contracting 5.0% m/m, essentially halving the April 10.1% climb. The May Tertiary Industry Index (Wednesday) is pencilled in slipping 0.1% after rising 1.0% in April. June PPI (Wednesday) should warm up to 2.9% y/y from 2.7%. Also slated is the final May reading on Industrial Production (Friday). It declined 0.2% in the preliminary report, after gains of 0.5% in April, 1.4% in March, and 2.0% in February.

    China: It’s the June Trade Report (Friday) that will be the focal point. Inflation reports are also due with June CPI and PPI (Tuesday). CPI is expected to accelerate a bit to a 2.0% y/y pace versus 1.8% y/y previously, with PPI rising to 4.5% y/y from 4.1%. June loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Tuesday as well.

    Australia: In Australia, Housing Investment (Wednesday) features on a thin data docket. A 3.0% drop is expected in May after the 1.4% gain in April. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the 5th Bund Summit on Fintech from Shanghai, China (Sunday). The RBA held rates steady last week and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

    New Zealand: Retail Card Spending (Tuesday) is the only release of note and it is expected at a 0.7% gain (m/m) in June after the 0.4% rise in May. At the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is expected to be a rate increase. The next meeting is on August 9.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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