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Thread: Forex

  1. #31
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    The NASDAQ had already lost support prior to yesterday, but there was no acceleration to the downside.
    The S&P left another 'bull trap' in its wake but didn't give up (newer) channel support; it's still a long way from the long-standing summer channel - illustrated by the thin blue line.
    For today, keep an eye on the Russell 2000. It looks like it wants to lead lower and this will be bad news for other indices. If there is to be a bullish surge, then the NASDAQ 100 will be the index most likely to lead out.
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  2. #32
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    Canadian Dollar on High mode of its 4 months as NAFTA Deal ahead

    The dollar slipped against the Canadian dollar on Monday as the United States and Canada achieved a structure arrangement to refresh the North American Free Trade Agreement.


    Sources with coordinate information of the discussions affirmed the two nations achieved an arrangement, which included offering more dairy access to U.S. agriculturists and also Canada consenting to a side-letter course of action successfully topping vehicle fares to the United States.


    The Canadian dollar ascended around 0.7 percent, achieving a four-month high of C$1.2814 as the news about the structure assention broke, before surrendering a few additions. It last exchanged at C$1.2836.


    Despite the fact that business sectors were at that point foreseeing an assention, one wellspring of stress will be cleared away if an arrangement is made.


    The Canadian dollar is extremely solid today. Together with that, it's simple for monetary forms from asset needy and developing business sector nations to rise, putting offering weight on the dollar.
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  3. #33
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    The GBP/USD is trading back into the 1.3000 major technical level as the US Dollar downshifts in early Wednesday action, fueled by risk-bullish headlines from the European continent.


    Brexit headlines continue to dominate Sterling traders' headspace, and a steady stream of inconclusive talking heads brandishing their positions on Brexit has seen confidence in the UK continue to wane steadily as glimmers of hope for successful trade talks between the EU and the UK give way to bouts of hard selling as Britain seems no closer to a workable exit from the European Union than it did immediately following the Brexit referendum.
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  4. #34
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    The Italian government announced they would be willing to reduce their federal deficit to back below 2% in 2021, and the broader Euro-area saw a brief bounce in market sentiment, taking both the EUR and the GBP briefly higher, and the Pound is now trading just shy of the 1.3000 handle.
    The economic calendar is clear of any meaningful UK data for Wednesday, and traders will be keeping an eye out for continued headlines covering both Brexit and political tensions within the Eurozone, and early Wednesday's pop in the Sterling could find itself getting faded as the day unfolds.
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  5. #35
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    The Pound could be primed for another leg down as technical indicators have reloaded their neutral stances, and as we noted: "technical indicators have corrected oversold readings before losing directional strength within negative readings, while the 20 SMA is currently crossing below the 200 EMA, reflecting the strength of sellers. Of course, the pair is little about technical readings and all about Brexit, with the pair's direction depending on which kind of Brexit the market believes it will take place."
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    Support levels: 1.2970 1.2940 1.2900
    Resistance levels: 1.3010 1.3035 1.3065
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  6. #36
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    The U.S. dollar aroused on Wednesday after higher-than-anticipated private parts employments information.
    U.S. private part businesses included 230,000 employments in September, well over financial analysts' desires, a report by payrolls processor ADP appeared on Thursday.
    Market analysts had expected the ADP nonfarm payrolls answer to demonstrate a gain of 187,000 occupations.
    The U.S. dollar file, which estimates the greenback's quality against a bushel of six noteworthy monetary standards, rose 0.13% to 95.25 starting at 11:14 AM ET (15:14 GMT).
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    Somewhere else, the euro was bring down in spite of news that Italy's legislature will diminish its spending deficiency focuses for 2020 and 2021 to 2.2% and 2% separately and stay with its arrangement for 2.4% for 2019.
    The administration initially expressed it would run a deficiency of 2.4% for a long time, which would have ruptured European Union monetary tenets.
    Italy has the greatest ostensible obligation in the EU and its guarantee of expanding the deficiency started fears of a restored money related emergency and caused a precarious increment in 10-year Italian security yields prior this week.
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  7. #37
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    Forex Signals- USD Down; Sterling Rises as Brexit Talks Near End


    The U.S. dollar moved once again from before highs on Thursday, as 10-year Treasury yields kept on climbing.


    The U.S. dollar list, which estimates the greenback's quality against a bushel of six noteworthy monetary forms, fell 0.37% to 95.32 starting at 11:08 AM ET (15:08 GMT).


    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to levels unheard of since 2011 after perky financial information and hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced desires for a loan cost increment in December.


    The yield was up 1.36% to 3.204% subsequent to bouncing just about 4% in the past session.


    the U.S. national bank may raise financing costs over an expected "unbiased" setting as the U.S. economy keeps on developing.


    Financing costs are as yet accommodative, yet we're step by step moving to a place where they'll be unbiased, neither keeping down nor impelling monetary development.


    Information this week demonstrated that private division contracting expanded at the quickest pace in seven months in September while week by week jobless cases numbers tumbled to a very nearly 49-year low.


    Somewhere else the euro recouped because of the weaker dollar while sterling flooded in the midst of reports that the European Union and the UK are in the last Brexit transaction stages.


    EUR/USD expanded 0.39% to 1.1522 and GBP/USD rose 0.70% to 1.3030.


    The dollar slid bring down against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.69% to 113.74.


    The Australian dollar was lower, with AUD/USD down 0.20% to 0.7090, while NZD/USD fell 0.21% to 0.6499 and USD/CAD rose 0.01% to 1.2870.
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  8. #38
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    The dollar edged higher on Monday as China pursued a facilitating in residential arrangement by enabling its yuan to fall, however the drop was not as sharp as some had dreaded. Moves were restricted by an absence of liquidity with Japan on vacation and the U.S. security showcase on a break. A sudden and soak ascend in Treasury yields had supported the dollar for quite a bit of a week ago.
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    China's national bank proceeded onward Sunday to help the economy by slicing the level of money that banks must hold as stores. It was the fourth cut for the current year and comes as the economy battles with the drag from a raising exchange debate with the United States. Beijing pursued by setting its yuan at 6.8957 for every dollar , the least since May a year ago yet at the same time shy of the mental 6.9000 level that merchants had peered toward.


    The fix left the dollar exchanging at 6.9056 in the spot advertise , yet off an early best of 6.9157. China's most recent hold slice is another progression to attempt to help the local economy, in the midst of the headwinds from the exchange pressures. However while the cut may enable Chinese government to security yields drift around low levels even with higher U.S. yields, it likewise puts upward weight on USD/CNY.


    Any drop in the yuan has a tendency to undermine other rising monetary forms as they have to devalue to keep trades focused. That thusly bolsters the place of refuge yen and the dollar, especially when U.S. yields are rising. Yields on 10-year Treasuries hit a seven-year crest on Friday as information demonstrated the joblessness rate tumbling to its most minimal since 1969.


    The work report does not offer any motivation to think the work showcase is losing any energy. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve's arrangement for steady rate climbs through year end and past ought to remain to a great extent unblemished. Against a container of monetary standards, the dollar was a part firmer at 95.682 (DXY) subsequent to hitting a six-week top at 96.121 a week ago
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  9. #39
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    European Central Bank Introductory Statement to the Press Conference

    Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
    Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB,
    Frankfurt am Main, 25 October 2018

    INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
    Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Dombrovskis.

    Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
    Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the new monthly pace of €15 billion until the end of December 2018. We anticipate that, subject to incoming data confirming our medium-term inflation outlook, we will then end net purchases. We intend to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of our net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.
    Incoming information, while somewhat weaker than expected, remains overall consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy and gradually rising inflation pressures. The underlying strength of the economy continues to support our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed and will be maintained even after a gradual winding-down of our net asset purchases. At the same time, uncertainties relating to protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility remain prominent. Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. This support will continue to be provided by the net asset purchases until the end of the year, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the associated reinvestments, and by our enhanced forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.
    Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.4%, quarter on quarter, in both the first and the second quarter of 2018. Incoming information, while somewhat weaker than expected, remains overall consistent with our baseline scenario of an ongoing broad-based economic expansion, supported by domestic demand and continued improvements in the labour market. Some recent sector-specific developments are having an impact on the near-term growth profile. Our monetary policy measures continue to underpin domestic demand. Private consumption is fostered by ongoing employment growth and rising wages. At the same time, business investment is supported by solid domestic demand, favourable financing conditions and corporate profitability. Housing investment remains robust. In addition, the expansion in global activity is expected to continue supporting euro area exports, though at a slower pace.
    The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. At the same time, risks relating to protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility remain prominent.
    Euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 2.1% in September 2018, from 2.0% in August, reflecting mainly higher energy and food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around the current level over the coming months. While measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows. Domestic cost pressures are strengthening and broadening amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year and to increase further over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and rising wage growth.
    Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) growth stood at 3.5% in September 2018, after 3.4% in August. Apart from some volatility in monthly flows, M3 growth is increasingly supported by bank credit creation. The narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the main contributor to broad money growth.
    The growth of loans to the private sector strengthened further, continuing the upward trend observed since the beginning of 2014. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations rose to 4.3% in September 2018, from 4.1% in August, while the annual growth rate of loans to households stood at 3.1%, unchanged from the previous month. The euro area bank lending survey for the third quarter of 2018 indicates that loan growth continues to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories and favorable bank lending conditions for loans to enterprises and loans for house purchase.
    The pass-through of the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 continues to significantly support borrowing conditions for firms and households, access to financing – in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises – and credit flows across the euro area.
    To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
    In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute more decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. The implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity and growth potential. Regarding fiscal policies, the broad-based expansion calls for rebuilding fiscal buffers. This is particularly important in countries where government debt is high and for which full adherence to the Stability and Growth Pact is critical for safeguarding sound fiscal positions. Likewise, the transparent and consistent implementation of the EU’s fiscal and economic governance framework over time and across countries remains essential to bolster the resilience of the euro area economy. Improving the functioning of Economic and Monetary Union remains a priority. The Governing Council urges specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union.
    We are now at your disposal for questions.

  10. #40
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    Euro, emerging markets rebound as investors jump back into risk

    The euro rebounded from 2-1/2 month lows on Thursday as currencies hit hard by recent dollar buying roared higher, with the mood for risk-taking starting the month on a much more positive footing.

    Analysts said a flood of end-of-month buying of dollars on Wednesday had ceased with the start of November.

    That, combined with hopes that China would ramp up fiscal stimulus, boosted the euro and led to substantial moves higher in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Norwegian and Swedish crowns and a clutch of emerging market currencies.

    A more than one percent increase in sterling on hopes of an EU-UK Brexit deal for financial services also added to the dollar's woes, leaving it on track for its biggest one-day loss in three weeks. "We are doing the opposite from what we were doing yesterday. We've got a reasonably risk-friendly market, and with the new month we have some dollar selling," said Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale.

    The euro rose to as high as $1.1389, away from recent lows of $1.1302 that had followed weak euro zone data and worries about the Italian budget.

    The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value versus six major peers, moved lower by 0.5 percent to 96.642, easing from a 16-month high of 97.2 hit on Wednesday.

    The Australian dollar , seen as a barometer of investor sentiment, jumped one percent to $0.7146, helped by data showing a strong rise in the country's trade surplus. The New Zealand dollar gained 1.4 percent while the Swedish and Norwegian crowns also made headway.

    The yen rose slightly to 112.90. The Japanese currency weakened to a three-week low of 113.38 on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan signalled its intention to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for some time.

    EM RECOVERY

    With investor risk sentiment improving, emerging market currencies racked up gains versus the dollar. The offshore Chinese yuan, which had skidded to a 22-month low this week, recovered nearly half a percent to 6.9456 .

    The Russian rouble , Turkish lira and South Africa rand rallied, the latter up 1.7 percent.

    Despite the dollar's slide, some analysts were cautious about further falls given the headwinds for the global economy.

    Friday's U.S. employment data could also reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is outperforming rivals, sending money back into the buck.

    "After a very difficult month of October for risk assets, overnight we saw across the board strength in EM (emerging market) and higher beta FX, partly helped by the announcement of Chinese stimulus," ING analysts said in a note to clients.

    "Yet, with the combination of ongoing overhang of trade wars, the tightening Fed and the U.S. economy outperforming its G10 peers, we don’t expect such across-the-board EM FX rallies vs USD to be longlasting."





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