Hello Guest, if you are reading this it means you have not registered yet. Please take a second, Click here to register, and in a few simple steps you will be able to enjoy all the many features of our fine community. Note that lewd or meaningless nicknames are prohibited (no numbers or letters at random) and please introduce yourself in the section for you to meet our community.
100-bonus-benefit
pcm brokers pcm brokers
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 48
  1. #21
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    EUR/USD forecasts cut by Goldman Sachs



    Fears of German recession are not the only reason behind lower forecasts for EUR/USD.

    The team at Goldman Sachs lists several reasons why euro/dollar should further fall and update their 3, 6 and 12 month forecasts to the downside.


    Goldman Sachs cuts its EUR/USD forecast and now expects the pair to trade at 1.23, 1.20 and 1.15, in 3, 6 and 12 months from 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 previously. GS expects EUR/USD to fall to parity by the end of 2017.

    Overall, we think current levels in EUR/$ do not yet reflect the kind of balance sheet expansion that ECB President Draghi has mentioned. As the market becomes more comfortable that the ECB will bring its balance sheet back to early-2012 levels, we think we will see more Euro weakness,”

    “In addition, our European Economists see downside risks to the ECB’s inflation and growth forecasts, which points to the potential for more easing beyond the measures that have already been announced,”

    We think a large portion of foreign portfolio inflows into the Euro area since Mr. Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech is likely to be unhedged. This means that the underlying long Euro position is likely to be sizeable, which is ignored by simple positioning metrics like the CFTC’s CoT report,”



    “The price action around last week’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) also tends to support this view. Exhibit 10 shows the reaction of G10 currencies versus the Dollar in the 30 minutes around last week’s positive surprise on payrolls (the positive bars show how much the Dollar appreciated against each currency in the 30 minutes after the payrolls release). There is no sign that the Dollar lagged in its rise against the Euro, which we would see as a sign that short Euro positioning is stretched,”

    As a result, Euro downside remains our top conviction view,”

  2. #22
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    2 Reasons To Stay Long Sterling – Deutsche Bank

    On one hand, UK unemployment fell in August, but the drop in jobless claims was disappointing. This is only part of the complex picture for GBP. And what’s the next direction?


    Deutsche Bank gives two reasons to stay long on sterling:


    In a note to clients today, Deutsche Bank outlines a couple of development for sterling advising of staying long GBP despite its recent decline.


    First, while yesterday’s CPI number was weak UK inflation dynamics are very different from the US or Europe. Medium term expectations are stable, services inflation is well supported and lower CPI may actually be beneficial for UK growth in supporting consumption. Headline inflation also matters less for the Bank of England than other central banks.



    Second, positioning has moderated yet further. The IMM report shows that the real money community is now the shortest pounds for two years, while hedge funds have continued to cut longs.

  3. #23
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    Major Currencies Positioning & Forecasts – BNP Paribas

    Where are currencies headed next? Where will they be in one month and where will currency pairs trade in three months?


    Stability isn’t on the cards for quite a few pairs.


    Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:


    The following are BNP Paribas’ latest forecasts (end of period) for major currencies along with its estimates for their current positioning.




  4. #24
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    What To Buy & What To Sell Now?: FX Trades From Momentum Model - BNZ

    The following are the latest signals and trades generated and entered by Bank of New Zealand's (BNZ) Momentum FX Model.



    BNZ's highlights on the model's positions are as follow:
    Remaining short JPY remains lucrative, and AUD now spurned
    – Our model continues to make hay on its short JPY positions, having hauled in more than 7% against the USD and NZD respectively.
    – However, the short JPY position against the AUD has been stopped out, with the AUD unloved throughout. The model is now short AUD against the USD and NZD.
    – The model is far less convinced on the USD, with only four of eight possible USD trades now set to ‘long’, while the other four are set to ‘neutral’.
    The model supports NZD on the crosses
    – The model is long NZD against nearly all of its TWI partner currencies (EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP). The last two have been entered since our last update, and simply reflect weakness in those currencies.
    – The model has been stopped out of its short NZD/USD position, and is closer to entering a long position than a fresh short.

  5. #25
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    Trading FX Seasonality: High Stakes Into Year-End - Credit Suisse

    EUR and European currencies have historically performed well in December, although without any stunning hit ratios. On the other hand, JPY is usually weak towards year-end, notes Credit Suisse.
    Such patterns, according to CS, point to very high stakes for EUR/USD and USD/JPY into year-end.
    "In December liquidity seasonally tightens, positioning tends to be squared and the euro area current account surplus is also seasonally strong. But Draghi’s well-timed statements now signal imminent ECB easing (our economists expect to see a framework for sovereign QE outlined at the 4 December ECB meeting)," CS clarifies.
    "The stakes are therefore even higher than normal heading into the ECB meeting. This makes the euro area flash inflation estimate on 28 November a key data release for the market, in our view," CS argues.




    How to position?
    "Given that we expect the ECB to announce new QE, we stick to our longstanding short EUR view going into December. However, if Draghi disappoints, EUR shorts could become a 'painful' position. And while we ultimately would use EURUSD upside to establish new shorts, we would be cautious in the interim in such a scenario," CS advises.
    "Meanwhile, short JPY positions, at least on this measure, could have an easier ride through the end of the year," CS projects.

  6. #26
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    Getting Impatient With Our Long EUR/USD - Credit Agricole

    Having been long EUR/USD since 6 October we have become impatient with our position. While admittedly we were blindsided by the surprise BoJ QQE decision, the ECB Governing Council’s conspicuous shift towards sovereign QE has delivered a more sustained blow.
    On this later blow, it is difficult to see the market’s ECB view – irrespective of perceived legal hurdles – changing before year-end suggesting ECB policy pressure upon EUR should persist.
    Any EUR/USD capitulation will thus need to be USD-led, but so far FOMC members have remained largely silent on the resurgent USD.
    Indeed we doubt next week’s nonfarm payrolls release can provide the necessary capitulation trigger with our new FX Execution Mapper predicting a somewhat muted EUR/USD rally (ie, 25pips) on a negative surprise.


    Thus with the USD’s carry trend looking strong it appears unlikely positioning alone can drive a meaningful USD-correction into year-end.


    We stay long EUR/USD (stop unchanged at 1.2350) by conceding the evidence weighed against us.

  7. #27
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    EUR Selling Momentum Intact But Slow Into Tear-End - Credit Agricole

    Despite still extended short positioning, widening interest rate spreads should continue to exert downward pressure upon EUR in the week ahead.
    This driver was again evident this week following the ECB policy meeting where initial disappointment following the ECB press conference quickly fading been replaced with renewed EUR selling. Justification for such selling was corroborated by the EMU-US 3x6FRA spread which has moved over 0.1% against EUR/USD in the past week.
    Hence with market expectations keenly focused upon the possibility of sovereign QE by the ECB, such selling appears unlikely to be easily distracted as we move into year-end. Indeed the ECB sovereign-QE threat, plays in favour of policy makers buying them further time to see if current policy measures are gaining necessary traction.
    As such EUR/USD should depreciate further into year-end on pure ECB-policy before the Fed profile is even considered.


  8. #28
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    GBP Outlook & Forecast: Charting A Middle Path - SocGen

    Focus of the day:
    "The UK growth profile is expected to moderate, and inflation should stay subdued. There has been a sharp retreat in market expectations of UK interest rates, with a full 25bp rate hike by the BOE only priced in for end-2015 currently. The significant net long position in sterling in mid-2014 has also been fully eliminated. There is thus scope for upside economic surprises to benefit sterling, especially if the disinflation trend stops.
    There are however growing political uncertainties in the UK with the May general elections just ahead....



    We therefore expect sterling to weaken in a middle path between the dollar and the euro. The rising dollar trend in combination with the various negative factors weighing on sterling will maintain the downward pressure on cable. Sterling should nonetheless outperform the euro as the ECB eases monetary policy further in 2015. We consequently see EUR/GBP sliding moderately lower over the next several months."

  9. #29
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    Forecasts For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD - Westpac


  10. #30
    Golden Trader
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    www.instagram.com/fxcma
    Posts
    2,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Credits
    8,292
    My Language
    English
    Doom and gloom for the Australian economy


    The Australian dollar has had a horror start to the year falling to its lowest level in in over 5 years with no bottom in sight as weak iron ore prices, a resurgent US economy and a slowdown in China take its toll on the currency and the overall economy.

    In early trade on Monday the Australian dollar fell as low as US80.35 cents, its lowest level since July 2009
    .
    The price of iron ore, Australia’s biggest export fell by nearly 50% in 2014 making it one of the world’s worst performing commodities and pressuring the overall Australian economy as the country is so dependent on this vital export.

    A major reason for the decline in price has been a jump in production from Australia and other countries which have flooded the market at a time where demand is falling worldwide, which includes China the biggest buyer off the metal.

    The Chinese real estate market is cooling off with not a lot of new construction on the horizon. The sector accounts for a huge proportion of Iron ore which is imported into the country from Australia.

    The key to the Iron ore price in 2015 is the way China deals with the slowdown in the property market said Stan Shamu, a Melbourne-based strategist at brokerage IG

    “The wildcard for the commodity’s outlook this year would be the way Beijing handled slowing growth ,with any stimulus or support for the country’s weak property market critical for a recovery in iron ore prices”.
    “For now, China has a lot of supply and a lot of choice as to where they buy from and what quality they buy,” Mr Shamu said.
    “I think it’ll be a while yet before we see any real game changer for iron ore.”
    The US economy ended the year on a high note with improving economic conditions such as the real estate market and the unemployment rate which is at its lowest level since 2008.
    Most Analysts are now predicting the US Federal Reserve will lift Interest rates this year with some saying the first move could come as early as April.
    US interest rates have been on hold at record lows of 0.25% since 2008 as the FED tried to kick start the US economy after the world financial crisis.
    “This is just another blow for the Australian dollar which is one in a line of many things” noted Analysts from Fibogroup forex brokers.
    “With the US stock market at record highs, unemployment falling and tumbling oil prices, which will put more money into the pocket of the American consumer the FED’s hands are tied and they have no option but to move on rates”.
    “We believe this will put the Australian dollar under further pressure as we enter the New Year”.
    The Chinese economy has had a stellar run for the past decade but cracks are appearing which does not sit well with the Australian economy as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
    China’s manufacturing sector saw a significant decline last year which filtered through to the job market, with the unemployment rate rising, particularly in the housing market which has been a key driver of the local economy.
    The Chinese government has now predicted growth to be less than 7% this year after predicting a number of 7.5% last year with further downgrades possible as we move into 2015.
    In light of the disappointing figures, the Chinese government is trying to address the problem with measures such as a reduction in Interest rates to encourage banks to lend out more money and reducing red tape to allow companies to begin new projects.
    These measures will be monitored closely from Australia as any Improvement can only be good for the local economy.

 

 
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Daily Gold Technical Analysis
    By Raam in forum Commodities
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 02-03-2015, 07:20 AM
  2. Daily Currencies Technical Report
    By Raam in forum What to expect this week
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-02-2013, 09:15 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.4
Copyright © 2017 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Credits System provided by vBCredits II Deluxe v2.1.1 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like v3.3.0 Patch Level 2 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
All times are GMT +4. The time now is 11:39 PM.
CompleteVB skins shared by PreSofts.Com