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  1. #11
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    Gold forecast gloomy in 2014

    Major Banks around the world cut gold forecast in a synch for 2014. Barclays bank has cut price forecast of gold to be around $1,205/oz. in 2014 and also predicted the possibility of gold testing new lows around $1,050/ounce. Deutsche bank also cut its price forecast of gold for 2014 to average of $1,141/oz. stating reasons that the dollar has recovered and the U.S. economic outlook is positive. They predicted the gold to be further down in 2015 at around $1,100/oz. Following the suit, Goldman Sachs also predicted that the gold prices will be mostly down in 2014 and by the year end the gold price will be around $1,050/oz.
    As if responding to these predictions, spot gold prices retraced on Tuesday with the release of better than expected U.S. Retail Sales figures. Both, the Advance Retail Sales and the Retails Sales figures were much better than the forecasts. Advance Retail Sales, although down to 0.2% in December from 0.4% in November is still better than the forecast of 0.1%. The Retail Sales figures improved to 0.7% in December from a mere 0.1% in November. Retail sales is a major economic component and conveys the overall health of the economy and hence it is mostly watched and awaited by the analysts and economists. The Spot Gold prices dropped from the session high of $1255/oz. to nearly $1244/oz. after the Retail Sales data was released.
    Last edited by Syed; 01-14-2014 at 11:25 PM.
    Syed Murthuza Hussaini
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    PCM-BROKERS DMCC

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  3. #12
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    Gold extends decline

    Gold prices retraced on positive data from U.S. and optimistic forecast from World Bank on the Global Growth. Spot gold prices opened at $1243.58/ounce on Wednesday and touched the day low of $1234.44/ounce. The February contract settled 0.46% down to $1,245.40/ounce on Tuesday.
    There is strong support at $1,217.80/ounce, the low from Jan. 8, and resistance at $1,254.70/ounce. Economic date from U.S. was mostly positive throughout the day. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, increased to 11.9% in the week ending 10 Jan from 2.6% in the previous week and U.S. Empire Manufacturing rose to 12.51 from 2.22 followed by PPI (Producer Price Index) figures which rose to 0.4% in December from 0.1% in November and 1.2% up on yearly basis.
    World Bank foretasted the global economic growth to be around 3.2% in 2014, citing reasons that the major economies around the world are already on their road to recovery and that means trouble for gold which is traditionally seen as a safe haven and hedge against inflation in economic crisis. UBS joined the major banks in cutting its gold forecast to $1200 in 2014.

  4. #13
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    How low will gold go in 2014?

    Gold prices for February delivery rose to $1,239.30.
    A day earlier had been the second day of declines as investors bought up equities amid another batch of better-than-expected economic condition.
    Gold is no longer considered as a ‘safe haven’, with the positive signs of improvement in the US economy,
    For strategist from major banks that is the biggest fear that gold will lack of buyer interest, hence that will cause the gold prices to fall. Also due to Fed’s bond buying scheme and no sign of inflation.
    From the prospects, it seems that Gold will follow the same terrible 2013, which was down by 26% .

  5. #14
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    Gold gains on inflation news

    Gold futures were up on Thursday, the first time in last three sessions on declining equities and a weak dollar. Gold futures contract with delivery in February settled at $1240.2/ ounce, almost $1.9 up and gaining 0.2%. Gold prices were fueled by CPI (Consumer Price Index) data released on Thursday that showed rising inflation (in line with the target) which increased to 0.3% in December from flat 0% in November. The yearly CPI figure rose to 1.5% from 1.2%.
    Gold prices are likely to find support at $1226.6/ounce and resistance at $1254.9/ounce. Any weakness in dollar and equities is inversely reflected in the gold prices. Positive outlook from World-Bank on the global economies affected the gold prices negatively in the previous session.
    Syed Murthuza Hussaini
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    PCM-BROKERS DMCC

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  7. #15
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    Gold Shines again

    Gold prices extended the gains from Friday’s session on Monday. With the most U.S. markets and trading floor closed on Martin Luther King holiday, gold gained $2.20/ounce or 0.2% to 1254.10 on electronic trade. Friday saw the gold prices gaining $11/ounce, breaching the psychological key threshold of $1250/ounce. Also, ETFs saw gold inflows of around 7.4 tons. Gold Electronic Traded Funds (ETFs) were major losers with gold outflows in hundreds of metric tons in 2013, especially SPDR gold trust, the world’s largest gold ETF. Friday’s 7.4 ton gold inflow is the largest in flow since October 2012. Also, U.S. mints report record sale in the gold coins. The total gold coins sold in January alone were around 11% of total 2013 coin sales.
    January proved to be lucky for the gold with prices making a turnaround from 2013 gold disaster, the worst drop in three decades. With physical buying from China, record coin sales in January from U.S. mints and recovering gold ETFs, gold is poised for a turnaround. Friday’s gold close was the fourth higher close in a row from four weeks. Gold should find some resistance at $1260/ounce and then $1300/ounce. Support is seen at $1240/ounce and then $1180/ounce. Also, speculative traders are holding long positions in gold not seen in a long time that suggest a bullish run is expected. However, gold has lost the safe haven status and prices seen in 2011 should not be expected in the near future at least.
    Syed Murthuza Hussaini
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    PCM-BROKERS DMCC

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  9. #16
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    Gold posts major loss

    Gold was down on Tuesday with renewed Fed QE (Quantitative easing) tapering fears. Gold was almost 1% down on Tuesday posting biggest single day loss in 2014. A report published in the Wall Street Journal suggested with certainty that FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will announce second round of tapering in its next meeting. Gold recently found support from physical buying and hope that the December’s bad employment report may force Fed to delay the tapering of QE or bond buying program. Fed already started the tapering of QE by 10 billion dollars, which improved the USD outlook and spelled trouble for gold which lost its safe haven status with the global economic recovery.
    Also, data from china showed slowdown in the physical buying due to the recent price hike. Lack of major U.S. data encouraged some speculative investors with long positions to take profit. Spot gold was down 0.9% at $1241.76/oz in the late noon session. The session low was $1235.68/oz. February delivery contract settled at $1241.80/oz. World’s largest ETF (Electronic Traded Fund) SPDR Gold Trust reported its first inflow on Friday. Gold Electronic Traded Funds (ETFs) were major losers with gold outflows in hundreds of metric tons in 2013, especially SPDR gold trust, the world’s largest gold ETF.
    Syed Murthuza Hussaini
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    PCM-BROKERS DMCC

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  11. #17
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    Gold - What to Watch

    We have to watch,
    ECB president speech in Davos 2014
    US durable goods orders and Us consumer confidence index on 28 January 2014
    US FOMC interest rate decision on 29 January 2014
    Preliminary US Q4 GDP on 30 January 2014
    Eurozone December unemployment rate and December US core PCE price index on 31 January 2014.

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  13. #18
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    LEVELS OF GOLD

    GOLD WHICH HAD A BULLISH LAST WEEK BY HAVING A HIGHER BOTTOM AT 1231 OVER ITS H4 MOVING AVERAGE CAN MEET IN THE CASE OF RISING FURTHER BREAKING ITS $1279, IT CAN FACE ANOTHER RESISTANCE AT $1294 AND IT ALSO CAN RESIST AT $1327, $1361, $1375 AND $1400 WHILE GOING DOWN AGAIN FROM HERE CAN BE MET BY SUPPORTING 1231 AGAIN FOLLOWED BY $1218, $1200 AND $1180 LEVELS.

  14. #19
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    Gold posts first lost in three sessions

    Gold prices posted first loss in the last three sessions on Monday, but finds support from soft U.S. New Home Sales data released today. Gold prices turned lower Monday on the fears that fed may consider cuts in the monthly bond buying program by another 10 billion dollars on Wednesday. However, U.S. New Home Sales figures dropped to -7.0% from -3.9% and missed the forecast of -1.9% by a wide margin, providing support to the gold prices. As long as the leading economic indicators remain soft, the Fed could extend the monthly bond buying program which weighs heavily on the USD.

    Gold April delivery contract traded at $1263.20/ounce during U.S. trading. The gold prices touched the session low of 1257.20 and the session high of 1279.20. With major stock markets going down the drain, last week has been very beneficial for the gold that rallied past $127o gaining 5% over the past four weeks.
    Another set of important data is expected on Tuesday, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence, if positive, could affect the gold prices adversely. Analysts inform that gold will be testing major resistance at $1300/ounce. With major stock markets down and economic data turning negative, a shadow of doubt is casting over the recent global economic recovery and turning the investors to run for the safer options like gold and Japanese yen.
    Syed Murthuza Hussaini
    Executive Dealer,
    PCM-BROKERS DMCC

  15. #20
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    Gold - What to Watch

    SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE FOR A DAY TRADER

    R1 - 1264.80 S1 - 1251.90
    R2 - 1265.90 S2 - 1239.90
    R3 - 1279.00 S3 - 1231.10

    DATAS TO WATCH

    DURABLE GOODS
    CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
    RICHMOND FED MAFG INDEX

    OVERALL MARKETS LOOK BEARISH, SELL ON RISE IS ADVISABLE WITH STRICT STOPLOSS ABOVE RESISTANCE LEVEL.

  16. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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