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Thread: EUR/USD

  1. #291
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    Date : 3rd December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    The U.S. ADP employment data came in better than expected, we also saw an uptick in Q3 productivity and unit labor costs; the data gave some support for the USD on Wednesday. The U.S. Fed chair Yellen appeared to put in place the foundations for a December rate within the next two weeks hike during her speech yesterday. For the time being, the market will remain “data-dependent” with all eyes now on the jobs report due out tomorrow. Unless the jobs report is a complete disappointment, markets will continue to adjust for a rate hike.


    European markets will focus on today’s ECB decision, analyst projections call for a cut in the deposit rate of at least 20 basis points, maybe even larger if there are sizeable exemptions and a widening of the pool of eligible assets under the QE program.


    The EUR is under selling pressure against the USD ahead of the ECB’s policy decision; EURUSD short sellers may have been profiting-taking yesterday, however, the downtrend continues today after a short lived rebound attempt yesterday after the pair hit a new multi-month low.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • EUR Final EMU Services PMI: revised down to 54.2 from 54.6 reported previously but still up from 54.1 in October. The composite reading was also revised down to 54.2, but remained up from 53.9 in the previous month. So economic expansion still accelerated in November and all major Eurozone countries are reporting growth, although November readings were mixed, with the Spanish PMI coming in higher than expected at 56.7, up from 55.9 in the previous month. The Italian reading meanwhile was unchanged at 53.4, while the final French number was revised down to 51.0 from 51.3 and the German reading was confirmed at 55.6.


    • EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision: a cut in the -0.2% deposit rate plus a tweak in the QE program is likely. The widening of pool of assets under QE would give Draghi more room to manoeuvre in the future and add weight to his promise to do everything needed to bring inflation back towards the 2% mark.


    • GBP Services PMI: The U.K. has the Services PMI for November, which we expect to bounce back to 55.5 (median 55.0) from the 54.9 reading in October.


    • USD Unemployment Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 269k (median 271k) in the week-ended November 28. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,244k for the week-ended November 21.


    • USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 57.5 from 59.1 in October. The July spike to 60.3 set a new post-recession high.


    • USD Fed’s Yellen Testifies.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click to access the full Forex Economic calendar.


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    John Knobel
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    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-07-2015 at 06:31 PM.

  2. #292
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    Date : 4th December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    Yesterday was a historic trading day for EUR traders in the wake of the ECB’s and Mario Draghi’s surprise move that disappointed the EUR short sellers in the market, after the ECB cut the deposit rate by just 10 basis points when the market had priced in at least a 20 basis point cut. High EURUSD price action after the disappointing announcement likely blew up short sellers as the pair surged higher by 450+ pips on the day.


    EURUSD short sellers will be further tested today as today’s U.S. jobs report could offer some more surprises. A stronger NFP number could flip some of EURUSD recent gains, however on the other side of the trade, if we see a big NFP drop off, we could quickly see a EURUSD pop the late October’s levels near 1. 1100.


    The EUR gets a bit of further support today as the German manufacturing orders at the start of the session came in much higher than anticipated at 1.8% m/m and September data were revised sharply higher.


    Fed Chair Yellen finished her JEC testimony on policy without adding anything new. She repeated several times that the economy is growing and the labor market is near full employment. Liftoff went on to say, also doesn’t mean the FOMC is embarking on a pre-determined course, and added, the trajectory will be gradual. So it looks as though it’s all systems go for a small hike.


    Asian stock markets are down across the board, following on from heavy losses in the U.S. and especially the Eurozone, as Draghi’s package of easing measures fell short of expectations.


    The weaker USD drove up oil prices though short covering ahead of today’s OPEC meeting has been viewed as the culprit. A lack of agreement on production cuts from the Vienna meeting, will see the global supply glut picture come back to center stage and further oil price losses may be expected.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • EUR German Manufacturing Orders: Surged 1.8% m/m, a much stronger rebound than expected and with the September number revised up sharply to -0.7% m/m from -1.7% m/m, the numbers tie in with the better than expected confidence readings this month. Still, this was the first improvement since June, and the three months trend rate still dropped to -2.9% from -2.7% in the three months to September. The German recovery may for once be driven by consumption, rather than exports and manufacturing, but still, these are weak numbers that suggest a slowdown in activity at the start of next year.


    • German construction PMI: Jumped to 52.5 from 51.8 in the previous month. More signs that the construction sector is picking up as low interest rates fuel demand for property investment and the refugee crisis will mean additional demand for housing. Something then to counterbalance the weak manufacturing sector, which is facing a drop in demand.


    • USD NFP: November nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 190k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as lean claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could put a December rate hike on hold. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady from 5.0%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% increase last month.


    • USD Trade Deficit: The October trade deficit is expected to hold steady from -$40.8 bln in September. Exports in October are expected to fall 1.6% while imports show a 1.3% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: downward, if October service trade captures some of the goods-trade weakness. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions. The trade deficit has failed to narrow significantly in 2015 despite a sharp price-led drop in petroleum imports, thanks to weakening foreign demand and a strong dollar.


    • CAD Unemployment: Employment is expected to fall 10.0k in November after the 44.4k surge in October. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job surge in October was driven by a 32.0k surge in public administration payrolls that was largely due to temporary work associated with the federal election. A pull-back seems in the cards as those temporary workers are let go with the conclusion of the election. But education payrolls could provide a boost, having declined 3.6k in October on top of the 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Hence, the risk is mixed given the divergent risks associated with public admin and education.


    • CAD IVEY PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to rise to 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-07-2015 at 06:30 PM.

  3. #293
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    Date : 9th December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand.


    China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%.


    BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.”


    US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August.


    • RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this.






    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #294
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    Date : 11th December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.3% y/y, as expected. The national rate was steady at 0.4% y/y and the CPI rate excluding energy fell back marginally to 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y. The sharp difference between headline inflation and the ex-energy figure highlights, however, once again that lower energy prices are the main driven behind the weak numbers, which also means the risk of a real deflationary spiral is limited.


    Both BoE and SNB left policy unchanged at yesterday’s council meeting, as expected. The BoE is still eying a rate hike, but is clearly in no hurry, and if anything the statement was a tad more dovish than the November inflation report. The SNB meanwhile remains ready to intervene on currency markets if necessary. The BoE minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favour of steady policy, with McCafferty continuing his dissent in favour of a rate hike. The vote to maintain the stock of purchased assets at GBP 375 bln was taken unanimously, as in the last meeting. The BoE’s November inflation report was already a tad more dovish and the MPC said today that the risks to the view back then that “if Bank Rate were to follow the gently rising path implied by the prevailing market yields then inflation would exceed slightly the 2% target in two years and then rise further above it”, lie a little to the downside in the first two years. This means under the implied gentle tightening path inflation may no longer exceed target in two years’ time, but not necessarily that it won’t reach the target.


    US reports revealed the expected big trade price hits from commodity prices in November before likely bigger declines in December, with broad-based price drops beyond commodities, and particular weakness in export prices. We also saw a 13k initial claims rise to 282k in the first week of December that extended the 9k bounce to 269k in the Thanksgiving week of November. The sharp 22k two-week climb for claims raises the stakes for next week’s report, though for now the rise can be attributed to holiday volatility. We still expect a 200k December payroll rise that undershoots big recent gains of 211k in November and 298k i n October as well as the 210k average year-to-date gain for 2015, but that beats the 174k Q3 average monthly gain.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • US Retail Sales: November retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase ex-autos. This follows October figures of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Despite the firm auto sales data for November, retail sales are facing headwinds from the decline in gasoline prices and a drop in construction hours worked as we discussed in Monday’s commentary.


    • US PPI: November PPI should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) increase for the core. This should bring the y/y figure to -1.2% from -1.6% in October which set a new recent low. Declines in oil prices over the past year have acted to hold down most inflation measures.

    • US Business Inventories: October business inventories should come in unchanged (median 0.1%) headline for inventories with shipments for the month down 0.2%. This follows respective September figures of 0.3% for inventories and unchanged for September. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio at 1.38, steady from September.




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    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #295
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    EURUSD - 16.12.2015

    EURUSD down from the daily high continues after the preliminary private sector activity report in Germany.
    Technically, EURUSD next immediate support at 1.0931 and 1.0890 levels. Up side resistance at 1.0960 and 1.10 levels.
    Trend overall looking slightly bearish at the moment.

  6. #296
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    EURUSD Technical levels - 21.12.2015


    Technically, EURUSD next immediate support at 1.0847 and 1.0788 levels. Resistance above at 1.0877, 1.0890 and 1.0929 levels.
    Trend overall looking slithly bearish at the moment.

  7. #297
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    Technical Levels - 23.12.2015

    EURUSD technically, next immediate support below at 1.0890, 1.0803 levels. Resistance above at 1.0940 and 1.1006 levels.
    Trend oversold condition with slightly bearish at the moment.

  8. #298
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    Date : 29th December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    The USD majors continued to trade in narrow ranges, strong stock markets in Asia coupled with a recent rebound in diary prices have helped underpin the New Zealand dollar, the NZD continues it’s multi-week rally against the USD gaining nearly 450 pips since mid November. The EURUSD, meanwhile, remained in the mid-1.09s, below yesterdays near two week high at 1.0992, and USDJPY has remained above yesterday’s two-month low at 120.16.


    The European calendar is once again very quiet, with only Italian consumer and business confidence numbers of note. There remains little data on tap from the Central Banks as we move closer to the end of 2015.


    U.S. calendar has the trade in goods, home price index, and consumer confidence, the focus will be on the Consumer Confidence report.


    Asian markets moved higher, with banks leading stocks to the eighth straight day of gains, at the time of writing U.S. stock futures are in positive territory.


    Oil prices are slightly higher, with USOil trading just under the 37 per barrel mark.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • USD U.S. Consumer Confidence: December consumer confidence is out later today and analyst expect to see a headline increase to 94.0 from 90.4 in November. Along side the headline, analyst expect current conditions t o rise to 110.0 from 108.1 and current conditions to improve to 83.4 from 78.6.Michigan Sentiment improved in December with a climb to 92.6 as of it’s second release from 91.3 in November and the IBD/TIPP poll rose to 47.2 from 45.5.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!



    John Knobel
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    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #299
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    Date : 31st December 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st December 2015.



    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today
    Lower oil prices weighed moderately on North American equity markets with the Dow Jones ending lower -0.66%, and the USD traded relatively steady. Today, the last trading day of the year should bring more of the same, as Japan is on holiday, and the economic calendar is almost nonexistent. The overnight Asian session traded in a narrow range, leaving the USDJPY in a holding pattern.


    In Europe, the DAX is heading for a year end level that is still far off the highs seen earlier in the year but nevertheless markedly higher than at the start of the year. Thin holiday trade exaggerated moves, and Germany, Italy, Scandinavia and Switzerland will remain closed for the New Year’s Eve and tomorrow, while other European markets close early.


    Eurozone M3 money supply growth decelerated to 5.1% y/y in November from 5.3% y/y in October, in line with Analyst forecast. The growth rate of loans to households rose to 1.4% y/y from 1.2% y/y and loans to non-financial corporations rose 0.9% y/y. Annual money supply growth remains high and lending slowly picks up as credit conditions improve. Much of the remaining weakness in lending to companies is also due to a lack of demand, as most remain happy to fulfill current orders with existing capacity.


    Crude Oil fell to $36.40 session lows following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 mln bbls actually rose 900k bbls, while distillate stocks were up 1.8 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl rise. Refinery usage rose to 92.6% from 91.3%. Overall, a bearish report.


    Gold took a bit of a tumble, with sellers apparently stepping in on the move under $1,065 , which had provided support over the past two sessions. The contract had peaked at $1,072.20 overnight, and is currently trading near $1,063.


    Main Macro Events Today


    • EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: No Comment.


    • USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 26 are out today and should reveal an increase to 275k (median 270k) from 267k last week and 272k in the week prior. Claims have continued to show restraint through the holiday season despite an increase in volatility and December looks poised to leave a monthly average of 272k, only slightly higher than the 270k in average in November but up from the 263k average for October.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!



    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #300
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    EURUSD Technical levels - 04.01.2016

    Technically, EURUSD next immediate resistance above at 1.08970 and 1.1130 levels. Down side support at 1.0808, 1.0538 levels.
    Trend overbought conditions with slightly bullish at the moment.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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