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  1. #11
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    Forex Weekly Outlook December 1-5

    The euro emerged as the winner of an interesting week that closed the month of November. The first week of the last month is certainly busy. US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Rate decisions in Australia, the UK and the Eurozone, Important employment events in Canada and the US including the important NFP release. These are Forex Market Movers This Week. Check out these events on our weekly outlook.


    US data showed mixed results. Durable goods orders advanced unexpectedly 0.4% but missed on the core, posting 0.9% decline. Jobless claims disappointed crossing the 300,000 line for the first time in nearly three months with a 21,000 jump to 313,000. New Home Sales rose for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units but missed forecast for a higher gain of 471,000 units. Nevertheless, the second GDP release came out better than the first estimate, showing a 3.9% growth rate in the third quarter reflecting upward revisions to business and consumer spending, as well as to inventories. Due to the flood of US economic data released at once before Thanksgiving, volatility tends to be higher. Will the US data continue to show resilience? Let’s start:



    1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. US manufacturing PMI came in at 59.0 in October following 56.6 in the prior month. The release was higher than the 56.5 forecasted, contradicting the US manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics report showing manufacturing activity slowed to its lowest since July. Economists expect manufacturing PMI will reach 57.9 this time.
    2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. Australia’s central bank kept the cash rate at 2.5% in November, noting that rates will remain unchanged in the coming months and that currency remains overvalued. Governor Glenn Stevens has seeks to stimulate domestic growth drivers to boost economic growth. The RBA’s The growth outlook was less optimistic than in the previous report, but with diminished worries about the housing market. No change in rates is forecast.
    3. Australia GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. The Australian economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the second quarter after 1.1% growth registered in the first quarter. The release was better than the 0.4% rise forecasted by analysts. On an annual basis, GDP grew 3.1%, lower than the 3.4% recorded in Q1. Exports fell 0.9% compared to a 4.2% gain in the first quarter, while imports edged up to a 3.7% expansion from a 1.2% decline in the first quarter. Economists expect an annual growth of 3.0% in 2014, and a 2.8% gain in 2015. The third quarter GDP is predicted to be 0.7%.
    4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. The US labor market continued to strengthen in October, registering a pick-up of 230,000 in private sector hiring, after a 225,000 gain in the previous month. However the third quarter slowdown is expected to continue towards the end of 2014 which could badly affect the job market. A gain of 223,000 jobs is expected in November.
    5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday: 15:00. Stephen Poloz head of the BOC decided to maintain borrowing costs due to sluggish growth of global economy. Poloz noted that rates could go up or down, depending on economic headwinds from the global economy. However, most economists expect the next rate move will be up, and that it will likely come by mid-2015. Overnight rate is expected to remain unchanged.
    6. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday: 15:00. US service-sector growth slowed in October to 57.1 from 58.6 in September. The index has been declining since July reaching its slowest pace of growth in 6 months. Nevertheless, the index is above 50 indicating growth. New business expanded in October, a good sign for economic growth. Employment remained strong, but business outlook was more pessimistic. US service-sector is expected to reach 57.5.
    7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. Bank of England voting members decided to keep interest rates at 0.5% in November. The stimulus program remained unchanged at £375 billion. Economists expected a rate hike in November, after Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England noted the decision surrounding the timing of the first rate hike was “becoming more balanced” and “could happen sooner than markets expect”. The Official Bank Rate is predicted to remain unchanged this time.
    8. Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. Mr. Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, promised in October that more aggressive measures are being prepared, in the form of the large-scale bond purchases known as quantitative easing to boost growth in the Eurozone. The same promise was delivered in November with no substantial measures. Many economists expected real action in the form of the US QE. Even the Bank of Japan started its own QE program. Even though the Euro area economy is not in deflation, prices are falling constantly damaging companies’ revenues and raising unemployment. Real measures are expected on the December meeting.
    9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday: 13:30. The number of Americans seeking U.S. unemployment benefits edged up to 313,000 last week, crossing the 300,000 line for the first time in nearly three months. The 21,000 jump beat forecasts for a 287,000 reading. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 6,250 to 294,000. This sudden rise does not suggest a downturn trend, but is probably related to seasonal layoffs in sectors affected by the cold weather, such as construction. Economists expect US weekly unemployment claims to reach 297K
    10. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s job market unexpectedly increased by 43,100 positions in October, pushing unemployment rate down to a nearly six-year low of 6.5%. Analysts expected a contraction of 5,000 jobs following September’s gain of 74,100 positions. The jobless rate, declined from 6.8% in September, to the lowest since November 2008, suggesting the labor market is regaining strength. The labor participation rate, stayed at 66%, the lowest since November 2001. Full-time jobs increased by 26,500, while part-time positions increased by 16,500. Canada’s job market is expected to add 5,300 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to reach 6.6%.
    11. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. The US job market gained fewer than expected positions in October adding 214,000, but the Unemployment rate declined to its lowest level since 2008 reaching 5.8%. However, despite the forecast of 235,000 job addition, October’s gain is still considered positive. Wage growth remained sluggish, as wages increased 0.1% month-on-month, missing expectations for growth of 0.2%. Year-over-year, wages grew 2%, below expectations for a 2.1% gain. US job gain in November is expected to be 225,000, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 5.8%.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
    *All times are GMT.

  2. #12
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    Forex Weekly Outlook Dec. 8-12

    The US dollar had another excellent week, reaching new highs against many currencies. Can this continue or will we see a pause? Rate decisions in New Zealand and in Switzerland, US retail sales and consumer sentiment and the ECB’s TLTRO are among the major events for this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.


    Non-Farm Payrolls posted a superb job gain of 321,000 in November. The release also showed a 0.4% rise in wages. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. This was the biggest jobs gain since January 2012, far above average of 224,000 a month over the past year. This excellent release demonstrates that the ongoing improvement in the job market cannot go unnoticed. In the euro-zone, the ECB refrained from announcing QE in the last meeting for the year, but subsequent reports about the imminence of the move means more pressure on the euro. The Aussie suffered a disappointing GDP report and is now expected to cut rates in 2015. Canada’s loss of jobs didn’t help the loonie. USD/JPY remained unstoppable and left dust behind the round level of 120. Let’s start:



    1. Japan GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Just as the trading week begins, Japan will update its GDP report for Q3. The first release came out at -0.4%, and this means that the country suffers from a recession. This is one of the reasons for scrapping the sales tax hike and for calling the elections. An upgrade to a slide of only 0.1% is expected now. A surprising positive figure would erase the recession. The yen is likely to move sharply in the wake of the new week.
    2. NZ Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its Cash rate in September at 3.50%, implying they will keep monetary policy on hold until the end of next year, contrasting the U.S. Federal Reserve plans of raising rates. Low inflation and slowing global growth were the reasons behind the decision to keep rates unchanged. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
    3. Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s job market added 24,100 jobs in October. Full-time positions expanded by 33,400 while part-time roles declined by 9,400. The jobless rate remained unchanged at a 12-year high of 6.2%, suggesting a weaker labor market amid the economy’s transition from mining-driven growth. The participation rate edged up to a seasonally adjusted 64.6% compared to 64.5% in the previous month. These figures indicate a modest improvement and a positive trend. Australia is expected to gain 15,200 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate is predicted to reach 6.3%.
    4. Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank kept its Libor rate at the minimum low of 0.0% to 0.25%, in line with market prediction. SNB policymakers also issued updated forecasts for growth and inflation revealing a moderate pickup in the coming months. The Central Bank expects GDP growth to reach 2% in 2015. Inflation is expected to reach 2% in 2014 and only 0.6% in 2015. The 3 year+ floor of 1.20 under EUR/CHF, which is not too far from the current price, is widely expected to be maintained.
    5. Euro-zone TLTRO results: Thursday, 10:15. The ECB reports the results of the second tranche of targeted loans: loans that are directed to the real economy. The first tranche disappointed with only €82.6 billion. A bigger take up is expected now, but as long as it remains under €200 billion, the pressure to deliver QE is likely to continue. This is a key release for the euro.
    6. US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. consumers increased their spending in October, reaching $444.5 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rising 0.3% compared to September’s decline of 0.3%. Economists expected a smaller rise of 0.2%. Consumers were more optimistic and made more purchases. October’s core sales, excluding autos, edged up 0.3% from a 0.2% decline in September. Analysts predicted a 0.2% gain in October. Falling gasoline prices helped to increase domestic expenditures leading to stronger holiday sales. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.3% in November while core sales are predicted to rise 0.1 %.
    7. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell back below the 300,000 line last week, indicating continued growth in the labor market. He reading was broadly in line with market forecast. The four-week average increased by 4750 to 299,000 still near post-recession low. However, the sharp decline could be attributed to Thanksgiving holiday. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 299,000 this time.
    8. US PPI: Friday, 13:30. The producer price index gained 0.2% in October amid a pickup in inflation. Prices for many products increased despite a decline in wholesale gas costs. Automakers contributed to inflation by introducing 2015 car models. Beef prices jumped 6% and pork prices surged 8.1%. Meanwhile, core PPI excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, increased 0.4%. However, the rise in PPI does not reflect a trend, since the ongoing declines in fuel prices boost sales boosting inflation. The producer price index is predicted to fall 0.1% in November.
    9. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment edged up in November to a more than seven-year high of 88.8 points, compared to 86.9 posted in September. Economists predicted a reading of 87.3. The ongoing growth in the employment market and the sharp drop in gasoline prices, boosted sentiment. Current economic conditions increased to 103.0 from 98.3 beating forecast of 98.8. Consumer expectations increased to 80.6 from 79.6, exceeding the 80.2 forecast. However, expectations for income gains remained low despite rising and came in below inflation forecasts. One-year inflation expectation declined to 2.6% from 2.9%, while its five-year inflation outlook was also at 2.6%. U.S. consumer sentiment is expected to improve further to 89.6 this time.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
    *All times are GMT.

  3. #13
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    Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26

    The US dollar enjoyed wide gains in the last full week before the holidays. Will the ride continue also on thin liquidity? GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and unemployment claims are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.


    Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes. The move was made to calm markets fearing sharp policy shifts. However, she did sound hawkish at the press conference, being actually pleased with the fall in oil prices, content about the labor market and talking about rate hikes in 2015. In Europe, another comment from the ECB strengthened the notion that EZ QE is coming in January. The Australian dollar suffered once again and the yen resumed its falls, alongside all the others.



    1. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in September after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in October.
    2. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
    3. US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought. The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
    4. New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
    5. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
    6. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.

    Markets are set to grind to a halt on December 24th, Christmas Eve, remain completely closed on Christmas, the 25th and hardly see any activity on the 26th (Boxing Day).
    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
    *All times are GMT.


  4. #14
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    Forex Weekly Outlook January 5-9

    The dollar opened 2015 with a storm, especially against the beaten euro. And now, trading activity returns to full swing with: a buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, the FOMC meeting minutes and lots more. These are the main economic releases for this week. Let’s see, in detail, the market movers to impact Forex trading.


    Just before 2014 ended, US jobless claims disappointed with a 17,000 rise in the number of new claims, reaching 298,000. However, Consumer confidence, released earlier, rebounded to 92.6 following 91 points in November, indicating consumers are more confident at year-end than they were at the beginning of the year. The ISM manufacturing PMI was weak, but we had a silver lining from the employment component. In the euro-zone, drama came from Greece, where the country is preparing for elections amid uncertainty about the bailout and signs of QE are mounting. This sent EUR/USD to 1.20. The dollar gained against other currencies and stood out against the C$, which also suffered another fall in oil prices. Let’s start:

    Updates:

    • Jan 5, 15:01: Grexit Worries Wallop Euro: The first full trading week of 2015 has started off with a bang, as volatility takes center stage in currency...
    • Jan 5, 11:29: EURUSD falls: The overnight session in Asia has driven the euro even lower with EURUSD taking out 1.2000 as the majority of...
    • Jan 5, 8:58: Gold looks ready to go higher from here – Technical update: The big picture in Gold hasn’t changed much over the past month. For approximately nine weeks now Gold has been...
    • Jan 5, 8:50: 2015 Preview for currencies & commodities: the Fed hike, EZ QE, slippery oil, UK politics, Big in Japan, AUD down under, Loonie blues and Gold – Market Movers #31: An exciting 2014 has ended and we have a packed show previewing the currencies and commodities in 2015: when will the Fed...
    • Jan 5, 8:11: Forex: 2015 will be year of US interest rate rise tantrums: The scene looks set for the US Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in 2015 – a shift in...
    • Jan 5, 0:00: Despite Its Sharp Rally, The USD Is Still Cheap – Standard Chartered: Yes, the dollar ran higher and higher, but it probably is not enough. And it is not only a euro...


    1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday. 15:00. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded in November after two straight months of declines. The Index increased to 59.3 beating forecasts of 57.5. 14 industries out of the 18 surveyed reported expansion. Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 58.2 in December.
    2. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. The U.S. private sector added 208,000 workers in November following 230,000 jobs gain in the previous month, indicating the slowdown in global economy does not impact US domestic activity. The ongoing improvement in the labor market leads to faster wage growth. A Labor Department report showed compensation per hour increased 1.3% in the third quarter rather than the 2.3% reported in the previous month, and declined 0.9% instead of the expected 2.3% rise. ADP job gain is expected to reach 227,000 in December.
    3. US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted less than expected in October reaching $43.03 billion. Lower crude oil prices had limited impact. Imports jumped 0.9%, reaching $241 billion, while exports increased 1.2% to $197.5 billion, indicating the economy was is resistant to the slowdown in global demand. Economists forecast a deficit of $41.3 billion. Exports to the European Union increased 8.5 percent, while China saw a 36 percent jump in the value of goods it imported from the United States. Exports to Japan rose 4.0 percent, while those to Canada and Mexico – the main U.S. trading partners – reached record highs. Sustained dollar strength, however, is expected to undercut export growth in the months ahead. Imports from China hit an all-time high, leaving the politically sensitive trade gap at $32.6 billion. U.S. trade deficit is predicted to narrow to 42.3.
    4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed removed the “considerable time” message regarding rates, but balanced it with its observations and a more moderate “dot chart”. The dollar then got a boost by Yellen, that sounded optimistic about the economy, talked about raising rates in 2015 and did not fear the fall in oil prices. We will now see some of the internal debate around that meeting. Will we see a dovish minutes to counter the bullish tone? Or could it just serve as another dollar driver?
    5. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.50% amid weak inflation threatening economic growth. Policy makers also voted to maintain cash stimulus at £375 billion. Britain’s 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate increased to 1.3% in October from a five-year low of 1.2 percent in September, but remained far below the BoE’s government goal of 2.0%. No change in rates is expected this time.
    6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filings initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. increased last week by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000, beating market forecast. This was the highest figure since November 22 topping analysts’ predictions for a 287,000 reading. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, climbed to 290,750. The number of claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
    7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s job market had a temporary setback in November, contracting 10,700 jobs which nudged the unemployment rate slightly to 6.6%. However, despite the disappointing release, the general trend is positive showing a 146,000 job increase in the last 12 months. The majority of job addition in the last few months are in full time employment. Canadian economy is expected to expand in 2015 particularly if the US economy continues to strengthen. Canada’s job market is expected to add 10,300 positions while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%.
    8. US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. The US labor expected more than expected in November, surging by 321,000 jobs after adding 243,000 on October. This was the biggest jump in employment since January 2012, reaching a12 month average of 224,000. Economists expected a gain of 231,000 positions, however wage growth was still rather weak. The unemployment rate for November was 5.8%, unchanged from October’s reading in line with market forecast. The report also said that the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%. Us labor market is forecast to expand by 241,000 while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.7%.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

    *All times are GMT.

  5. #15
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    Forex Weekly Outlook January 12-16

    The dollar had a mixed performance in the first full week of 2015. Inflation data in the UK and the US, US retail sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer sentiment are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.


    The NFP report was better than expected showing a job gain of 252K in December. The solid increase that came with upwards revisions and a drop of the unemployment rate to a 6-1/2 year low of 5.6%. However, average hourly earnings dipped 0.2% in December. Could the lack of wage growth deter the Fed from hiking? The euro-zone is officially in deflation and there are more reports of a €500 billion QE program in the pipeline. The pound continued its slide and so did the loonie, which suffered from a weak jobs report. The Aussie managed to escape the double bottom abyss thanks to strong Australian data and also the yen enjoyed a solid performance. Let’s start:



    1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK consumer prices plunged to a twelve year low of 1% in November, reaching half the BoE’s inflation target. The reading was worse than expected caused by a sharp and continuous decline in oil prices. However the low oil prices were positive for consumers, boosting spending and supporting UK growth. The Bank’s monetary policy committee said in its November inflation is likely to fall below 1% in early 2015. UK consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.7%.
    2. US retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. U.S. consumer spending edged up in November amid the holiday shopping season, boosted further by lower gasoline prices. Meanwhile, retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rose 0.6% after an unrevised 0.5% gain in October. Economists expected core sales to rise a mere 0.1% last month. The shopping spree accelerated growth in the fourth quarter. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.2%, while Core sales are predicted to increase by 0.1%.
    3. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment edged up to 6.3% in November as more people looked for jobs. Economic activity weakened by sluggish Chinese demand. However the Australian job market added 42,700 positions in November, much better than the 13,700 increase posted in the prior month and the 15,000 addition forecasted by analysts. This rise suggests improvement in the Australian labor market. Policymakers are preparing for further easing measures in case the weakness in the job market and domestic demand continues. Economists expect job growth to increase by 5,300 while the Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%.
    4. US PPI: Thursday, 13:30. Producer Price Index fell 0.2% in November prompted by lower oil prices, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. Analysts expected a smaller decline of 0.1%. On an unadjusted basis, producer prices increased 1.4% for the 12 months ended November, the slowest 12-month increase since February 2014. Core producer prices, excluding food and energy remained unchanged after a 0.4% rise in November. Producer Price Index is expected to drop 0.3% this time.
    5. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number initial claims for unemployment benefits declined last week by 4,000 to 294,000 amid a sharp decrease in dismissals. Strong consumer spending had a positive effect on the labor market, despite a weakening in global economy. The four-week moving average a more solid measure of labor market trends, remained below the 300,000 mark for the 17th straight week. Jobless claims is expected to reach 299,000 this week.
    6. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 15:00. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region plunged to 24.5 in December from 40.8 in the previous month, indicating slower activity. New orders fell to 15.7 from 35.7. Employment conditions weakened to 7.2, down from 22.4 marking the lowest level since April. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is predicted to reach 20.3 this time.
    7. US Inflation data: Friday, 13:30. U.S. consumer prices registered their biggest decline in nearly six years in November amid a slide in gasoline prices. Consumer Price Index plunged 0.3%, following flat reading in October. On a yearly base CPI increased 1.3% the smallest gain in nine months, after posting a 1.7% rise in October. While inflation declines, the US job market continues to strengthen including a big gain in weekly earnings. Meanwhile, Core CPI excluding food and energy prices gained 0.1% following a 0.2% rise in the previous month. The rise suggests oil prices are the main cause for the sharp declines. Analysts expect consumer prices to dip 0.3% while Core prices are expected to increase 0.1%.
    8. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment surged in December to a near eight-year high amid improved earnings and better job prospects. Consumer sentiment edged up to 93.8 from 88.8 in November. The survey’s one-year inflation expectation rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent, while its five-year inflation outlook also rose to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent last month. Economists expect consumer sentiment to rise further to 94.2 this time.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
    *All times are GMT.

  6. #16
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    Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 2-6

    The dollar experienced a mixed week, in which its gains were focused against commodity currencies. The focus is on the US with a full buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, but also rate decisions stand out. These are forex market movers for this week. Check out these events on our weekly outlook


    US jobless claims plunged 43,000 to a 15 year low indicating the labor market strides in the right direction. Economists expected claims to tick down to 301,000. Earlier that week, the Fed held its monthly monetary policy meeting, repeated the “patience” wording regarding a possible rate hike. However the policy makers were more concerned about international developments and their possible effect on US future growth. The Fed also stated that the labor market has improved further and household spending rose moderately, boosted by low energy prices. Will the US economy continue to improve? Let’s start,



    1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI declined in December, coming in at 55.5 following 58.7 in the previous month. Economists forecasted a higher reading of 57.6. Manufacturing output is constantly expanding; however, the rate of growth has eased in the fourth quarter. Companies express growing uncertainty about the outlook in 2015, especially regarding exports. Regarding the fall in oil prices, some ISM members think it would have a good impact on the manufacturing sector while others disagree. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 54.9 this time.
    2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. Australia’s central bank has kept its interest rate at a record low for 17 months amid the economic transition from mining investment. Many economists believe a rate cut is in order since the economic growth has not picked up to offset the sharp decline in mining investment. Low interest rates may boost investments in the non-mining sectors. In addition. Falling commodity prices like iron and oil will weaken export revenues. No change in rate is expected now.
    3. NZ employment data: Tuesday, 21:45. New Zealand’s Unemployment rate was better than expected in the third quarter, falling to 5.4% from 5.6 in the prior quarter. Employment expanded 0.8%, higher than the 0.5% gain reached in the second quarter and better than the 0.6% rise forecasted by analysts. However, on a yearly base, employment expanded 3.2%, below the 3.7% seen in the previous quarter. New Zealand’s employment market is predicted to grow by 0.8, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.3%.
    4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. U.S. private sector employment gained 241,000 jobs in December, beating forecasts of a 227,000 job addition. The increase was broad based and was not affected by oil-related companies that experienced a dramatic fall in crude prices, suggesting the US labor market is resilient and does not depend on any one industry. U.S. private employment is expected to gain 221,000 this time.
    5. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Service sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in six months, reaching 56.2 in December, after posting 59.3 in November. Economists expected a reading of 58.2. New Orders Index was 2.5 points lower than 61.4 registered in November. Employment Index declined 0.7 points, reaching 56.0 and Prices Index plunged 4.9 points to 49.5. Service sector is forecasted to grow to 56.6.
    6. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to leave rates at s record-low in January amid tumbling inflation. Both Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, formerly opposing such a move, had a change of heart as falling oil prices threatened to weaken further the already subdued inflation. The ongoing improvement in the unemployment rate and wage growth didn’t persuade MPC members to vote for a change in policy. Following this statement, economists pushed back their forecast for a rate hike to early 2016.
    7. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted in November to an 11-month low reaching $39 billion, the smallest since December 2013. Falling crude oil prices helped to strengthen domestic demand, but exports fell 1.0% to $196.4 billion in November, suggesting the slowing global economy may start to affect the US market. Economists expected deficit to reach $42.3 billion. U.S. trade deficit is expected to contact further to$38 billion.
    8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment dropped sharply to a 15 year low, indicating the US labor market continues to strengthen. However, the unbelievably low figure can be also attributed to a holiday-shortened week. The 43,000decline was much better than the 301,000 addition forecasted by analysts. The four-week moving average, fell 8,250 last week to 298,500. The number of claims is expected to reach 277,000 this time.
    9. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s labor market had another mild setback in December, shedding 4,300 positions after contracting 10,700 jobs in November. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6%. Full-time employment in December grew by 53,500 jobs, while part-time work dropped by 57,700 indicating the overall picture is quite positive. The 12-month gain was 185,700 positions, an increase of 1.0% , while the six-month moving average for employment growth was 22,100 jobs, up from 21,300 in November.Canada’s labor market is expected to increase by 5,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to reach 6.7%.
    10. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. U.S. job growth edged up in December, rising 252,000 after a revised jump of 353,000 in November. Meanwhile, the jobless rate declined to a 6.5 year low of 5.6%. However, despite the positive figures, wages did not increase in December a worrisome sign which may compel the Fed to leave rates unchanged for an extended period. Us job market is expected to add 231,000 positions. The unemplolyment rate is forecsted to remain unchanged.

    *All times are GMT.

  7. #17
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    Forex Weekly Outlook February 9-13

    The greenback was on the back foot throughout most of the first week of February, before staging a partial comeback. We now have Australian employment data, the BOE Inflation Report, US retail sales, consumer sentiment as the major market movers for this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.


    After some underwhelming figures from the US, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations with a 257,000 jobs gain in January, with revisions adding another 147K. Full-time positions edged up 777,000, reaching more than 120 million for the first time since July 2008. A much needed comeback in wages was also seen, with +0.5% m/m. This enabled the greenback to end the week on a strong note. In the euro-zone, some good figures were overshadowed by a worsening of the Greek crisis. Talks are set to continue as the deadlines loom. Elsewhere, the RBA went through with a rate cut and oil staged a nice recovery, supporting the battered Canadian dollar. Also the pound enjoyed a comeback, buoyed by strong PMIs.



    1. Glenn Stevens speaks: Monday, 0:15. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak in Sydney. Australia’s central bank cut its cash rate to a minimum low of 2.25% after 18 months of static rates. Stevens may elaborate on the reasons behind the unexpected rate cut and talk about deflationary pressures and the impact of foreign markets on RBA’s recent policy decision.
    2. EU meeting on Greece: Wednesday. The EU has called an extraordinary meeting on February 11th and the only topic on the agenda is Greece. This follows a European tour of Greek FM Yanis Varoufakis, that ended in an acrimonious tone with his German counterpart. On the same day, the waiver of Greek bonds expires at the ECB. Any headlines coming from the meeting are set to rock the euro, especially those from the German representatives
    3. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s job market expanded in December, adding 37,400 jobs, well above the 5,300 increase forecasted by analysts. The big job gain lowered the unemployment rate from 6.2% to 6.1%. The increase in positions showed a solid rise in full-time jobs compared to a slight fall in part-time jobs. Furthermore, participation rate increased to 64.8% in December from 64.7% in the prior month, indicating the economy is expanding. Australia’s labor market is expected to contract by 4,700 jobs, while the unemployment rate is predicted to climb to 6.2%.
    4. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 10:30. The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney is expected to speak in London about the Inflation report. Carney has launched a strong attack on austerity measures in the Eurozone, claiming such measures are too harsh to enable recovery and may lead the 18-nation single currency area deeper into a debt. He noted that low inflation in the euro-area is potentially dangerous to growth and calls for a real course of action to escape the debt trap.
    5. UK inflation data: Thursday, 10:30. The Bank of England noted in its November inflation report that the economy is expanding more slowly and price pressures declined from the previous three months. The slower growth was caused by sluggish expansion in global economies and weaker growth forecast. The Central bank noted the slowdown in the housing market and the low commodity prices weighing on CPI inflation.
    6. US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. retail sales plunged 0.9% in December, posting their largest decline in 11 months after positive growth in the fourth quarter. The sharp fall may be attributed to seasonal adjustments after the holiday spending spree. Economists forecasted a 0.2% gain. However lower gasoline prices are expected to boost consumer spending in the coming months. Meanwhile, Core sales excluding automobiles dropped 1.0% following a 0.5% gain in the previous month and lower than the 0.1% increase predicted by analysts. Retail sales are expected to decline 0.3%, while core sales are predicted to drop 0.4%.
    7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims rose less than expected last week, reaching 278,000 following 267,000 in the previous week. Analysts expected a larger gain of 287,000. Claims were volatile in recent months due to seasonal changes, but remained positive. The four-week moving average fell 6,500 to 292,750 last week. jobless claims is expected to reach 279,000 this week.
    8. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer sentiment spiked in January to 98.2, exceeding economists’ forecast of 94.2, rising 4.4 points higher than in December. Lower gasoline prices as well as the ongoing improvement in the labor market boosted spending and raising consumer sentiment to an 11-year high. The economy is in solid growth at the beginning of 2015 and is expected to continue this positive trend. Consumer sentiment is expected to remain at 98.2 this time.

    *All times are GMT.

  8. #18
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    Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 9-13

    The US dollar had an excellent week, soaring across the board, most notably against the plunging euro. A rate decision in New Zealand, Employment figures from Australia and Canada, Retail sales, PPI, Unemployment claims and Consumer sentiment from the US are the top events on FX calendar. Let’s see, in detail, the main market movers for this week.


    Yet another robust reading from the US job market. The all-important NFP release showed a strong gain of 295,000 positions in February while and the jobless rate fell to a 6.5 year low of 5.5%. The disappointment came from slow wage growth. This raises the chances of a rate hike in June. This boosted the dollar across the board. In the euro-zone, Draghi showed determination on implementing QE, and the euro plunged. The pound followed suit. Elsewhere, an upbeat BOC helped CAD, while no cut from the RBA kept AUD bid. All was lost when the NFP numbers came in.

    Updates:

    • Mar 9, 10:27: Euro continues to struggle: The single currency starts the week scraping itself from the floor after last week’s concerted push lower. The break below...


    1. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark Official Cash Rate at 3.5%. The decision was in line with market forecast, however, the RBNZ maintained a tightening policy bias due to weaker than expected growth but stated that future rate adjustments will depend on economic data. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler also voiced his concerns about the unjustified strength of the kiwi and its downside risks to exports. Economists expect the RBNZ will maintain rates this time.
    2. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australian labor market contracted by 12,200 positions in January pushing the unemployment rate to its highest level in 13 years reaching 6.4%. Both readings were worse than expected. Analysts forecasted a job loss of 4,700, expecting only a minor rise of 0.1% in the unemployment rate. Full-time employment fell by 28,100 in January and part-time employment was up 15,900. Australian labor market is expected to expand by15,300 while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 6.4%.
    3. US Retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. Retail sales slipped 0.8% in January as consumer spending decreased, suggesting the economy started the first quarter on a weaker note. Despite cheap gasoline prices, sales did not pick-up. Economists speculate that consumers were using the extra income to reduce debt and boost savings. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services plunged 0.9% following a 1.0% slide in the previous month. Retail sales is expected to gain 0.5%, while Core sales are expected to rise 0.6%.
    4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. More Americans filled applications for unemployment benefits last week as the long winter stalled further progress in US labor market. Jobless claims edged up 7,000 to 320,000, the highest since May 2014. Analysts expected a lower figure of 293,000. However, the rise in the number of applications does not affect the positive trend in the job market. The four-week average of claims increased to 304,750 from 294,500 the week before. The number of claims is expected to reach 317,000 this week.
    5. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian labor market was boosted by a part-time jobs gain in January, adding 35,400 new positions, well above the 4,700 increase forecasted by analysts. However the report was disappointing since 11,800 full-time positions were lost and the better than expected 6.6% unemployment rate was due to part time job gains. Analysts expect Canadian job figures to decline in the coming months as part-time workers are struggling to find full-time employment and the falling oil prices will also have a negative effect on the labor market. Canadian job market is expected to add 21,300 while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.5%.
    6. US PPI : Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices plunged 0.8%, recording their biggest decline in more than five years due to the ongoing erosion in energy prices. Economists expected a smaller fall of 0.4%. Core prices excluding food, energy, and trade also fell 0.1% after a 0.3% gain in December. Producer prices are predicted to rise 0.2%.
    7. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer confidence dropped in February to 93.6 after seven months of gains due to a rise in gasoline prices shifting Americans’ optimism about the economy. The preliminary sentiment index declined to 93.6 from the final January reading of 98.1 the highest since 2004. Economists expected a further rise in sentiment to 98.2. Energy an oil related workers were more concerned about their jobs in case of a fall in production. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 95.6.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
    *All times are GMT.

  9. #19
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    Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 16-20

    The dollar stormed the board, with the euro and the pound standing out as the biggest losers. The Fed decision is the key event in a week that also features rate decision in Japan and Switzerland, employment data from the UK and the US and many more. These are the major events on FX calendar. Join us as we check on the highlights of this week.


    The US job market demonstrated renewed strength with a 36,000 fall in the number of jobless claims, reaching 289,000. However, retail sales disappointed, dropping 0.6% in February as harsh weather reduced sales and affected growth in the first quarter. Also consumer confidence slipped. Will the US economy shake off winter slowdown? For the US dollar it did not really matter. EUR/USD reached levels last seen over 12 years ago, with parity seeming closer and also the previously strong pound gave in. The Aussie was supported by jobs data, the kiwi by an upbeat central bank and the loonie was hit by oil. Let’s start,

    Updates:

    • Mar 16, 13:48: ‘Patient’ Fed in Focus: As the new trading week kicks off, price action across various asset classes suggests financial markets are tucking in for...
    • Mar 16, 12:05: How To Prepare For A Less ‘Patient’ Fed? – BNPP: The US dollar enjoyed a nice rally against many currencies in anticipation of Fed tightening. We will probably get a change...
    • Mar 16, 11:29: Markets await Fed’s decision: All eyes on the Fed this week as the market becomes more and more focused on whether the word “patience”...


    1. Mario Draghi Speaks: Monday, 18:45.ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk to the ECB’s new QE plan aimed to spur growth in the euro member countries by injecting 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) into the economy. Market volatility is expected. In his previous speech, Draghi hurt the euro: he reiterated that reaching the stronger growth forecasts depends on implementation of current programs.
    2. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted to maintain its monetary policy in its February meeting and continue implementing its plan to increase monetary base to an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion. This step will help ensure the Central Bank’s inflation target of 2.0%. The BOJ noted the economy continued its moderate recovery with a pickup in exports. Consumer spending also remained strong due to rising employment and better wages. Inflation expectations remain positive despite the decline in oil prices. Rates are expected to remain unchanged this time.
    3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German analyst and investor sentiment jumped in February its highest level in a year, reaching 53, following 48.4 in January boosted by the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program. However, the Greek debt problem and the Ukraine crisis weighed on the economic outlook. Economists expected a higher leap to 55. The German government forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2015. Sentiment among German analysts and investors is forecasted to improve to 58.9 in March.
    4. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building Permits weakened further in January reaching 1.053 million, dropping 0.7% form the rate of 1.07 posted in December. Economists expected a rise to 1.08 million. Other housing figures were also disappointing such as a 2% decline in housing starts and low homebuilder sentiment. Housing recovery remains slow and prices outpace wage growth. The number of permits is expected to grow to1.07 million.
    5. UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. Britain’s labor market continued to improve in January with a bigger than expected decline in the number of jobless applications. The number of unemployed declined by 38,600 in January after a 35,800 drop in December, indicating job creation is rising. Economists expected a smaller decline of 25,200 in January. According to the ILO measure, unemployment fell by 97,000 in the three months to December, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.7%. Another decline of 31,000 is expected in the number of jobless applications.
    6. US rate decision: Wednesday, statement and forecasts at 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Federal Reserve maintained their monetary policy in January, leaving the word “patience” regarding rate hikes intact. The Fed admitted that inflation weakened considerably due to the recent drop in oil prices. The members are watching for economic developments to see what happens. Job gains continue to grow and the unemployment rate has also declined closing in on its pre-recession level, however, wage growth remains subdued as companies continue to find an abundant supply of potential employees. Since then, Yellen testified in Capitol Hill and basically paved the road for removing forward guidance in this March meeting. This is now expected and could further lift the greenback. If the wording about patience remains unchanged, the dollar would plunge. It is also important to watch out for updated forecasts: they will probably show lower unemployment expectations but also lower inflation and perhaps the same growth numbers. In the press conference, reporters might try to extract more hints from Yellen regarding the rates and it will be interesting to see how she deflects the questions.
    7. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. The New Zealand economy boosted growth in the third quarter expanding 1.0%, the strongest gain in 15 years. This impressive figure was preceded by a 0.7% expansion in the second quarter. Economists expected a growth rate of 0.7%. On a yearly base, growth remained unchanged from the second quarter reaching 3.2%. New Zealand is expected to expand by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
    8. Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank rocked markets on January, while deciding to abandon its three-year-old currency cap of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro, sending the currency high against the euro sending stocks down. Being an export reliant, 40% of which going to the euro zone endangered many Swiss companies. To balance the Swiss franc, the SNB cut its interest rate taking it further down into negative territory of -0.75% following -0.25% in the previous month. No change in rates is expected.
    9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 289,000. The 36,000 fall offers further evidence that the labor market is strengthening. Economists expected a higher figure of 306,000. The four-week moving average fell 3,750 to 302,250 last week. The NFP report showed a 295,000 job gain in February and a 6-1/2-year low of 5.5% unemployment rate. February marked the 12th straight month that employment gains have been above 200,000, the longest such run since 1994. The number of new claims for unemployment benefits is predicted to rise to 297,000 this week.
    10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area fell to 5.2 in February, following 6.3 in January, while economists expected a rise to 8.8. However, despite the three months of decline, manufacturing activity still remains positive pointing to growth. The outlook showed 55% of companies were optimistic regarding future demand, while 20% reported a decline. Economists believe the Philly Fed is affected by seasonal adjustment factors in winter and in fall. Expecting a boost in the spring and summer seasons. Manufacturing activity is expected to7.3 in March.


    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies.

    *All times are GMT.

  10. #20
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    Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 30-Apr 3


    The US dollar managed to fight back and correct part of the correction. In the week that ends with Good Friday, we have a buildup towards the all important US Non-Farm Payrolls as well as Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence and more events. Join us as we explore the top events of this week.


    The US labor market continued to improve with a decline in the number of jobless claims, reaching 282,000. Also inflation figures were OK and new home sales beat. However, the final GDP release for the fourth quarter of 2014 slightly disappointed remaining unchanged at 2.2%, below the 2.4% forecast and durable goods orders also fell short of predictions. In the euro-zone, we had upbeat data from Germany but that wasn’t enough for EUR/USD to settle over 1.10. In the UK, retail sales shined but inflation hit a round 0%, and cable is still looking for a direction. Japanese inflation also looks weak and could trigger action from the BOJ. The C$ was attentive to oil prices related to the crisis in Yemen, while the Aussie watched developments in China.

    Updates:

    1. Canada GDP: Tuesday: 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded 0.3% in December, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 0.2% gain. The reading was preceded by a 0.2% contraction in November. On a yearly base, GDP edged up 2.5% in 2014. The annual growth rate in the fourth quarter reached 2.4%, below the 3.2% posted in the third quarter. Household spending continued to be the main force in the Canadian economy increasing consumption expenditure by 2.0% on an annualized basis. Exports of goods fell 2.5%, exports of crude oil declined 6.5% and exports of refined petroleum products slumped 36.3%. Economists forecast a 0.2%growth rate in January.
    2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence declined more than expected in February reaching 96.4 from 103.8 in January. Economists expected a smaller drop to 99.6. Current declined to 110.2 from a revised 113.9 in January. Consumer outlook for the next six months dropped to 87.2 from a revised 97.0. Consumers were less optimistic about job prospects. However, despite the lower figures, the general level show positive trend. Consumer confidence is predicted to reach 96.6 in March.
    3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The U.S. private sector gained 212,000 jobs in February following an upwardly revised reading of 250,000 in the previous month. The release was below expectations. The manufacturing and the services sectors improved the most. However, despite the weaker job gain, the private sector’s outlook remains bright. Analysts expect a 231,000 job gain in the US private sector for March.
    4. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The US manufacturing sector weakened in February, dropping 0.6 points to 52.9. The reading was worse than the 53.4 points forecasted by analysts, however, the reading remained above the 50 point line, indicating continued growth. New orders fell 0.4 points to 52.5 while factory activity dropped from 56.5 in January to 53.7. Manufacturing employment also slipped from 54.1 to 51.4. Manufacturing exports continued to contract in February to 48.5, while imports softened, from 55.5 to 54. US manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 52.5 this time.
    5. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in January to $41.8 billion amid weakening in exports and imports. The 8.3% fall was broadly in line with market forecast. Imports contracted due to lower oil prices and labor strikes disrupting shipping of goods. Exports fell $5.6 million to $189.4 billion while imports dropped $9.4 billion to $231.1 billion. However, domestic production increased due to low oil prices and petroleum imports fell 23% to $17.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to contract further to $41.5 billion.
    6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 282K after a 291,000 addition in the prior week. The 9,000 drop continues to suggest an ongoing improvement in the US job market despite the recent volatility due to the harsh weather, softer global demand and the strong dollar. The four-week moving average fell 7,750 to 297,000 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 285,000 this week.
    7. US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. U.S. job creation strengthened in February rising 295,000 and lowering jobless rate to a more than 6-1/2 year low of 5.5%. Job gain was stronger despite harsh weather conditions disrupting activity. The report supported the Fed’s rate hike move planned in June. Average hourly earnings edged up by three cents and further gains are expected. The employment to population ratio in the US labor market has been steady at a 5-1/2 year high of 59.3%. US private sector is expected to gain 251,000 positions while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%.

    *All times are GMT.

 

 
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