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Thread: EUR/GBP

  1. #1
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    EUR/GBP

    Pair overcame the resistance level of 0.7426 and is now possible output pair to the resistance level 0.7455. If the same level of resistance to hold out and the price can not be fixed above him, then maybe the price decline to the support level 0.7370

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    A pair of falls and is now trying to overcome the support level 0.7350. Perhaps his breakout and consolidation below it will open the way to the support level 0.7325. In the case if the support hold out, then it is possible to increase the level of 0.7373 and further drop again.

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    The pair of EUR/GBP in 4H chart.the pair fixed below the level of resistance 0.7320 already. If this resistance hold out, then maybe drop him to the support level 0.7300. In case if the resistance is broken then possible to roll back to the level of 0.7340.
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  4. #4
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    Date : 2nd March 2015


    GBP A SAFEHAVEN CURRENCY IN EUROPE.





    Now that EUR is weak due to both economic, geopolitical and Greece related risks Sterling starts to look like a safe haven currency with its economy rebounding. The UK job market is recovering, Industrial activity expanding and GDP at healthy 2.7% level (almost back to its 2007 pre-crisis levels). This creates a stark contrast to the ailing Euro Area but at the same time the risk is one of contagion: Euro Area being so important trading partner to the UK its can impact the growth in the UK negatively. However, the EURGBP pair is in a downtrend and reflects both the stark differences in the economic front and the interest rate hike expectations. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates either in the third or fourth quarter while the ECB is obviously committed to the QE program announced in January.


    Price is now bouncing from general region of a 0.7255 support level, a historical pivot high. Stochastics in both weekly and daily timeframes are oversold and there is no divergence in these time frames. Out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. The nearest resistance (a weekly low) is at 0.7340.







    EURGBP, Daily


    Since my previous analysis price moved lower and is moving sideways in the region of 0.7255 support area. Stochastics is edging closer to its moving average indicating lack of downside momentum at this support. This could of course change later in today’s trading but it shows how relevant this level was for the market participants. The pair is now moving at the lower end of the regression channel but potential resistance levels are not that far from the current levels. The nearest daily resistance levels are: 0.7300, 0.7317 and 0.7348.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    I expected price find support at 0.7255 and it did almost to a pip, rallied and then was sold again from 0.7300 level. This led to a move that touched the channel line. The current move higher is taking place after a touch at the lower end of a short term bear channel and after there was a higher low in the Stochastics (bullish divergence). There is a resistance area from 0.7300 to 0.7314 that coincides with a midline in the channel. In addition the upper Bollinger Bans are not that far above the zone either.


    Conclusion:


    With price being at a historical pivot high and close to the short term channel bottom it makes sense to wait for better levels to enter into short trades. The zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  5. #5
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    Date : 11th March 2015


    EURGBP SETUPS HAVE MADE HUNDREDS OF PIPS.





    We got it right again in EURGBP. The pair rallied to a resistance level I gave in my last analysis and has then sold off heavily. My view on March 2nd EURGBP analysis was that out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. I wrote then that the zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone. EURGBP rose to 0.7301 on that day and has since dropped over 200 pips. We have now had two very good sell signals in EURGBP lately. The first sell signal as per my analysis came at just below 0.7596 and now the other in proximity of 0.7301. My analysis and the signals that I teach in my webinars have made several hundred pips in EURGBP for our traders. If you would like to learn how to catch moves like this you are welcome to join me to free webinars here.


    As the EURGBP is basically collapsing at the time of writing the weekly picture does not provide us with a lot to analyse. With trend lower indicators are oversold and price is hugging the lower Bollinger Bands. The nearest weekly support and resistance levels are 0.7022 a former resistance level from 2006 and 2007 and the last week’s low at 0.7183.





    EURGBP, Daily


    Price has extended below the regression channel and has for the first time since January 26th closed outside the lower Bollinger Bands. This suggests that the trend has moved too far too quickly. This increases probabilities for a corrective move against the prevailing trend over the coming few days.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    EURGBP trend is extended in 4h chart as well. In case there will be a move against the trend over the coming few days potential resistance levels that could turn price lower again are 0.7130 and 0.7180. The lower level is clearly a minor resistance level as it is a spot where price tried to hold the channel bottom. This caused a sideways move visible in the 60 min chart and could act as a resistance should the market be weak.


    Conclusion:


    As long as the market keeps on moving lower and there is no price based evidence to the contrary there is no hurry to close the short trades. Exception to this would be price hitting the 0.7022 support level which could well bounce the price higher and therefore is a logical target level. Price is in a downtrend and we should be looking to sell rallies as long as the approach works. However, once the 0.7022 target is hit the pair is at a major consolidation level and selling rallies might get trickier. Currently I am looking at 0.7130 and 0.7180 as potential shorting levels in case there is a rally higher and 0.7022 area as a target for short trades.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  6. #6
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    Date : 27th March 2015


    EURGBP CORRECTING LOWER AND BREAKING SUPPORT LEVELS.






    I suggested in my previous EURGBP analysis that as long as the market keeps on moving lower and there is no price based evidence to the contrary there is no hurry to close the short trades. I noted that an exception to this would be price hitting the 0.7022 support level which could well bounce the price higher and therefore is a logical target level. Price is in a downtrend and we should be looking to sell rallies as long as the approach works. However, once the 0.7022 target is hit the pair is at a major consolidation level and selling rallies might get trickier. The pair indeed hit the 0.7022 target level and rallied higher quite substantially. Selling rallies has definitely been trickier since then as price pretty much rocketed through the resistance level.


    The pair is trading below a weekly low from February at 0.7340 after trying to penetrate the resistance area above the level. Now that EURUSD is reacting lower from a resistance EURGBP is moving lower as well. They key support levels are 0.7220 (weekly pivot candle high) and 0.7022 a historical support. Nearest resistance levels are at 0.7340 and 0.7405. Weekly close above the pivotal weekly candle high is a longer term bullish sign as this has not happened since October last year and could signal that the pair has a bottoming process ahead.





    EURGBP, Daily


    Run up higher was followed by a relatively narrow range candle in the upper Bollinger Bands two days ago. In yesterday’s trading price closed below previous day’s low suggesting a turn around. Stochastics is overbought and signalling a momentum change, thus supporting the bearish view. Today price has moved outside the rising trendline and March 18th daily high and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level coinciding.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    Price has indeed broken the steeper trendline (grey line) and has now reached another that can be drawn by using the pivot points at A and B. There is a resistance level at 0.7318 that was created when the pair found support at the now violated trendline (grey). Next intraday support is at 0.7260 while the 61.8% Fibonacci level suggests support at March 19th low at 0.7150 (point B).


    Conclusion:


    Long term: Weekly close above the pivotal weekly candle high is a longer term bullish sign as this has not happened since October last year and could signal that the pair has a bottoming process ahead. This could lead to a double bottom or to price creating a higher low. Time (and price action) will tell. The range between 0.7022 and 0.7105 is definitely worth keeping an eye on should the price move that low. Buy signals inside this range would indicate demand at those levels.


    Short term: Price has violated 23.6% Fibonacci level and a support level created by a daily high and a secondary trendline. Therefore it makes sense to look to sell the rallies intraday. This would give us an opportunity to follow price action resistance levels identified in the above charts, especially 4h chart, and see if market is acting weakly or strongly. I would look at levels below 61.8% Fibonacci level as target as they should attract buyers.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  7. #7
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    Date : 30th April 2015 (Second Analysis)


    EURGBP CHALLENGING 23.6% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT.






    EURGBP, Weekly


    EURGBP has been moving higher since it hit my target level at 0.7022 in March. EURGBP had been moving too low for too long and had reached levels that acted as resistance in several occasions from 1998 to 2006. Now March monthly candle has created a doji while the April candle will be another doji if no spectacular price moves happen over today’s trading. This suggests that long term supply and demand are in relative balance at current levels.


    Providing this week’s candle closes in proximity of current price levels or higher we very likely have a higher weekly low and a new pivotal candle in weekly time frame. This low coincides with the upper end of downward regression channel. Stochastics is neutral reflecting the price action being close to half way of the recent price range. EURGBP is currently trying to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased.





    EURGBP, Daily


    The pair has moved above its 50 day SMA that coincides with a previous resistance level at 0.7236 while another technical factor coinciding with this level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. These levels are fairly close to the midrange and therefore do not bear that strong predictive value but it would still a positive if we saw this market closing above the 0.7236 level. Nearest significant support and resistance levels in the daily chart: 0.7132 and 0.7326.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and has since then moved above resistance levels that have now turned into supports. Stochastics is getting overbought so it shouldn’t be too long from now that we see retracements to support levels. Nearest support at 0.7213 should be an interesting level to look at for long signals in such a case while 0.7285 is the nearest more significant intraday resistance level.


    Conclusion


    There is an attempt to create a market bottom but this pair however probably needs more consolidation before it’s completed. While EURUSD has moved beyond the recent highs that resisted the price advances EURGBP is still below the same highs and therefore inside the range. These pairs have recently had fairly strong correlation, and should the EURUSD correct lower from a resistance it is likely to have a negative impact on EURGBP. If EURUSD corrects lower and tests support levels successfully it is more likely that EURGBP will bottom out. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased. In such case the 0.7376 to 0.7422 range would be a reasonable target for short term trades. Short term momentum is currently to the upside but price is nearing the 0.7286 resistance. The Greek uncertainty coupled with elections in the UK could bring more volatility over the coming days and weeks. As usual, it makes sense to look for sell signals at resistance levels and buy signals at supports.


    Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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    EURGBP - 16.07.2015

    EURGBP fell 7years low as 0.69620. Technically, next immediate resistance above at 0.6987 and 0.7068 levels. Downside support at 0.6945 and 0.6900 levels.
    Trend overall looking slightly bearish at the moment.

  9. #9
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    EURGBP H1


  10. #10
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    Date : 5th November 2015.


    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th November 2015.






    EURGBP UPDATE


    I wrote in yesterday’s analysis on EURGBP: At the time of writing the pair is trading at the supporting end of the wedge. This market is still in a sell the rallies mode with the nearest resistance levels at 0.7093 and 0.7105. The nearest 240 min support is at 0.7060 while the next daily support can be found at 0.7027.


    Those that have been to my webinars knew exactly how to get into a short trade and had a low risk trade opportunity as EURGBP hit the 0.7093 resistance identified in the report. The pair hit the first support yesterday and after some consolidation has now resumed the downward momentum. Those that used the position management technique they have learned in the webinars have now a profitable and risk free trade. You are most welcome to join me to the webinars and learn how to find and trade these opportunities. Register now. It’s free.


    Today is a so called super Thursday, a day when Bank of England publishes not only the interest rates decision but also the quarterly inflation report. No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month.


    The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS





    FX News Today


    No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month. The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.


    Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 2.3% for Q4 compared to 1.9% previously following the surge on ISM Services to 59.1 in October: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning’s Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.” Blue Chip median estimates have settled near 2.7% and this update closed the gap somewhat.


    Implied Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 58% chance of a hike in December, versus about 52% at yesterday’s close, and 50% at the start of the week. Though the Fed Chair didn’t say anything new in her Q&A, the fact that she didn’t back down from the hawkish spin in the October policy statement, and that she reiterated the transitory nature of the soft trend in inflation added to market beliefs that the FOMC will pull the trigger this time. While the Fed must still monitor incoming data, unless the numbers are unambiguously weak, the FOMC can still tighten policy on the excuse that the figures are in line with their outlooks.


    Main Macro Events Today


    * US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of October 31st is out today and should reveal a 257k (median 263k) headline from 260k in the week prior. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and look poised to leave a month oaverage of 259k in October, down from 269k in September and 275k in August. Alongside the strength in claims we expect a better October employment report with a 190k headline.


    * US Productivity: The first release on Q3 productivity should revel a 1.5% (median unchanged) decline following a 3.3% increasein Q2. Unit labor costs should be up 4.0% (median 2.3) after a 1.4% decline in Q2. Output is expected to by up 1.2% which compares to the Q3 GDP figure of 1.5%.


    * Canada Ivey PMI: We expect the Ivey PMI to improve to 55.0 in October from 53.7 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Broadly, business sentiment remains under pressure as the economy continues to adjust to the oil sector contraction and global growth uncertainty. The RBC manufacturing PMI (released Monday) fell to 48.0 in October from 48.6 in September. The CFIB Business Barometer survey of small and medium sized business sentiment improved to 58.9 in October from a 56.0 level in September that was the lowest since April of 2009. Yet the CFIB’s index was well below the level seen in October of 2014.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 
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