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Thread: USD

  1. #51
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    Dollar remain lower market eye on Br exit vote.

    The dollar remained lower lower against the other major currencies on Wednesday, after the release of positive U.S. new home sales data as investors prepared for the British vote on a potential exit from the European Union, or Brexit, due the next day.

    Separately, the international monetary fund said the U.S. economy was "overall in good shape" and expects U.S. growth to be 2.2% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.

    GBP/USD was up 0.30% at 1.4698, just off Monday’s six-month highs of 1.4782.

    An opinion poll on Tuesday showed that the campaign for the U.K. to stay in the EU lost some of its lead ahead of Thursday’s vote.

    The Survation poll showed that 45% of voters supported the campaign to remain in the EU, with 44% supporting Brexit, as a vote to leave is known. 11% were undecided.

    This compared to the 45% voting for remain and 42% voting to leave in an earlier survey.

    Two opinion polls released on Monday indicated that support for the Remain camp had regained its lead after falling behind last week.

    The dollar erased gains posted on Tuesday after Federal Reserve chair Yellen said that gradual interest rates hikes were likely to be needed, during her testimony to Congress.

    EUR/USD gained 0.42% to 1.1288.

    The dollar was steady against the yen, with USD/JPY at 104.72 and was lower against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF declining 0.37% to 0.9586.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.76% at 0.7508 and with NZD/USD advancing 0.76% to 0.7177.

    Elsewhere, USD/CAD slipped 0.16% to trade at 1.2797.

    Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.9% in April, in line with expectations, while core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, increased by 1.3% in April, beating expectations for an uptick of 0.6%.





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  2. #52
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    Dollar weakens ahead of Brexit vote.

    The dollar was broadly weaker on Wednesday as risk appetite returned to markets, boosting higher-risk currencies, while sterling and the euro rose on the last day of campaigning before Britain's referendum on European Union membership.

    A swing in bookmaker odds towards Britain choosing to remain in the EU, following the murder of a British lawmaker last week, helped boost currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, considered riskier investments because of their ties to commodity prices.

    The shift also helped sterling to recover 5 percent from lows around $1.40 last week.


  3. #53
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    US Treasuries gain as Fed seen to delay rate hike after Brexit vote

    The US Treasuries complex strengthened Monday on unexpected Brexit vote and it is set to hit 4-year intraday low of 1.40 percent. Also, the probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten this year has tumbled to 15 percent, from 76 percent, which boosted demand for fixed income securities.


    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell more than 10 basis points to 1.470 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note dipped 8 basis points to 0.574 percent by 12:30 GMT.


    Considering the reverberations of this shock beyond the UK, in terms of global markets and eventually the world economy, along with safe-haven flows due to the associated uncertainty, Treasury demand should be robust. Moreover, expectations of the Fed raising rates for the foreseeable future have understandably gone out the window.


    On Friday, just over 72 percent of the UK population, the highest participation rate in a country-wide poll since 1992 have participated in a historic referendum to abandon the EU project for good, highly legitimising the 51.9 percent vs 48.1 percent in favour of leaving, result. This outcome flies in the face of the high implied probabilities, based on bookie’s betting odds, of staying in, is at odds with several of the final (pre-referendum) opinion poll findings, and indeed goes against the grain of the number of self-confessed EU-sceptics who are said to have reluctantly moved towards the ‘Stay’ camp.


    Although the UK physical departure from the EU will not occur for at least a few years - article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty must first be invoked - domestically, the UK faces a very uncertain l-t economic future, and a sea-change in the political landscape. PM Cameron is to step down within three months and is likely to take along with him, Chancellor Osborne. The face of the next Conservative ‘administration’ that will be responsible for negotiating the country’s divorce and orderly exit terms from the EU will be altered, as the centre of gravity of the Tory government moves decisively further to the right.



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    Mirza
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  4. #54
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    Dollar continues to pare loss eye on FED

    Analysts had expected a 1.6% advance from the initial May number to a total of 560,000 units.

    Separately, the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence inched down to 97.3 this month from a reading of 97.4 in June, whose figure was revised down from a previously reported 98.0. Analysts expected the index to fall to 95.9 in July.

    Market participants were eyeing the Fed’s upcoming policy decision as a recent string of pbeat U.S. data continued to support expectations for a rate hike by the U.S. central bank in the near future.

    While most investors expect the Fed to leave its monetary policy unchanged this week, it could give hints on the timing of future rate hikes.

    EUR/USD held steady at 1.0991 off friday one month low of 1.0951

    Meanwhile, USD/JPY was down 1.09% at 104.65, after hitting a one-and-a-half week low of 10400 earlier in the day.

    The yen was boosted by a Nikkei report saying the Japanese government planned a direct fiscal stimulus of around 6 trillion yen ($56 billion) over the next few years, disappointing expectations for as much as 10 trillion to 20 trillion yen in fiscal stimulus.

    The dollar had climbed to as high as 107.49 last week, as investors’ expectations had mounted for Tokyo to unveil an aggressive stimulus package.

    Market players are also looking ahead to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting later this week. The BOJ is widely expected to ease policy further at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday, which could include a rate cut deeper into negative territory and additional asset purchases.

    The pound edged lower, with GBP/USD down 0.13% at 1.3122, while USD/CHF climbed 0.56% to 0.9914.

    Expectations for a rate but by the Bank of England at its August policy meeting mounted after the Financial Times reported that Martin Weale, a member of the BOE's rate-setting committee, dropped his opposition to an easing and now favored immediate stimulus.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.63% at 0.7516 and with NZD/USD advancing 0.79% to 0.7051.

    Earlier Tuesday, Statistics New Zealand said the country’s trade surplus narrowed to NZ$127 million in June from NZ$358 million the previous month, compared to expectations for a trade surplus of NZ$125 million.

    Elsewhere, USD/CAD eased up 0.08% to trade at 1.3227, nearg the previous session’s four-month peak of 1.3243.



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    Mirza
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  5. #55
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    Why Fed will not hike this year?

    1. GDP growth has slowed markedly to just around 1% q/q AR over the past three quarters – annual GDP growth from 3.3% y/y in Q1 2015 to 1.2% y/y in Q2 2016.
    2. Unemployment and underemployment rates have moved sideways for some time.
    3. Wage growth has picked up but is still subdued.
    4. PCE core inflation has moved sideways this year – it has only been at, or above, target for five months since 2008.
    5. Inflation expectations (both market-based and survey-based) have moved lower.
    6. ISM is the weakest it has been since 2010 and is in easing, not hiking, territory.
    7. Weak business investments as non-residential investments have declined for three consecutive quarters.
    8. The Fed has already tightened monetary policy equivalent to 330bp due to QE tapering and hiking expectations.
    9. Most voting FOMC members have a dovish-to-neutral stance on monetary policy, in our view.
    10. Do not always believe in Fed guidance, even if the Fed seems eager to hike.

  6. #56
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    Dollar holds rivals steady in subdued trade.

    The dollar held against the major currencies in subdued trade on tuesday, after the release of downbeat U.S. housing sector data as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan’s policy statements due on Wednesday.

    EUR/USD held steady at 1.1180.

    The U.S. Commerce Department said housing starts dropped 5.8% to 1.142 million units last month from July’s total of 1.212 million units. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.7% in August.

    Meanwhile, the number of building permits issued declined 0.4% to 1.139 million units from 1.144 million. Economists had forecast a 2.5% rise to 1.170 million units in August.

    Investors remained cautious with the U.S. dollar ahead of the Fed’s monthly policy meeting, set to begin later Tuesday, amid ongoing uncertainty over a possible rate hike.

    GBP/USD dropped 0.51% to 1.2963, the lowest since August 16.

    USD/JPY fell 0.29% to trade at 101.63, while USD/CHF slipped 0.12% to 0.9790.

    Market participants were also looking ahead to the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting this week, amid speculation over a possible rate cut further into negative territory.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.29% at 0.7556 and with NZD/USD advancing 0.44% to 0.7325.

    Elsewhere, USD/CAD added 0.16% to trade at 1.3226.



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  7. #57
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    Dollar extends gains, hits fresh 2-month highs.

    The dollar gains hit fresh two month highs against the other major currencies on tuesday for a U.S rate hike before the end of the year continued to lend broad support the greenback.

    EUR/USD dropped 0.50% to fresh low 1.1079
    In the euro zone, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research said that its index of German economic sentiment rose to 6.2 this month from September’s reading of 0.5. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 4.3 in October.
    Additionally, the index of euro zone economic sentiment increased to 12.3 in October from 5.4 a month earlier. Consensus was looking for an increase to 6.3.

    GBP/USD decline 0.64% to trade 31yr low 1.2283.
    The Pound remained under broad selling pressure amid sustained concerns over a hard Brexit for Britain.

    Elsewhere USD/JPY edged up 0.15% to 103.76.

    While USD/CHF gainsed 0.45% to 0.9870.

    Australian dollar is weaker with AUD/USD down 0.78% at 0.7549.

    New Zealand dollar were also weaker with NZD/USD retreating 0.81% at 0.7077.

    Meanwhile USD/CAD rose 0.30% to trade at 1.3214.





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    Mirza
    PCM Brokers DMCC
    Executive Coordinator.


  8. #58
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    The US dollar and US interest rates rose sharply, after Fed Chair Yellen hinted the economy could be allowed to heat.

    US 10Yr treasury yields slipped from 1.78% to 1.75% after a mixed set of data releases plus Fed speak from Rosengren, but bounced to 1.80% post-Yellen. 2Yr yields fell from 0.86% to 0.82% and only recovered to 0.84%, thereby steepening the curve to a one month high. Markets interpreted Yellen’s comments to mean the Fed may keep the Fed funds rate lower than it needs to be in order to allow the economy to heat up, which in turn would produce inflation – a recipe for a steeper yield curve.

    Earlier, Fed Rosengren felt rates may need to rise faster than market pricing is implying and also discussed the idea of changing the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet to steepen the curve, although there was little market response. Dudley expected one rate hike this year.

  9. #59
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    Dollar changed close to 7 month peak against other currencies

    The dollar was little changed against the other major currencies on Tuesday, hovering close to a seven-month peak data showing that the cost of living in the U.S. rose at the fastest pace in five months in September.

    EUR/USD slipped 0.17% to 1.0979, off highs of 1.1027 hit earlier in the day.

    The U.S. Commerce Department said the consumer price index rose 0.3% in September, in line with expectations and after a 0.2% increase the previous month.

    Year-on-year, consumer prices increased 1.5% last month, also in line with forecasts and after having risen 1.1% in August. That was its highest reading since October 2014.

    Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% last month, below forecasts for a 0.2% rise.

    The pickup in inflation indicated that the economy may be able to sustain higher interest rates.

    GBP/USD jumped 0.97% to 1.2302 after the U.K. Office for National Statistics said consumer price inflation rose by an annualized rate of 1.0% last month, above forecasts for a 0.9% gain and compared to the 0.6% increase seen in August. That was its highest level since November 2014.

    USD/JPY held steady 103.93, while USD/CHF added 0.11% to 0.9904.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.55% at 0.7672 and with NZD/USD advancing 0.98% to 0.7205.

    Earlier Tuesday, Statistics New Zealand said consumer prices rose 0.2% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a flat reading and after an increase of 0.4% in the three months to June.

    Meanwhile, the Aussie found support after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said he was comfortable with the current exchange rate.

    In his first speech as the RBA governor, Philip Lowe also said that current low levels of inflation were not unprecedented, dampening expectations for further rate cuts.

    Meanwhile, USD/CAD eased 0.08% to trade at 1.3116.


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    Mirza
    PCM Brokers DMCC
    Executive Coordinator

  10. #60
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    Dollar bounces up to 7 month high on U.S data and Draghi talk

    The dollar bounced back to a fresh seven-month high against the other majors currencies on Thursday, after slipping briefly, as markets digested comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, as well as a string of mixed U.S. data.

    The U.S. National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday that existing home sales increased by 3.2% in September to 5.47 million units from 5.30 million in August. The consensus forecast was for a 0.4% advance to 5.35 million units.

    The data came after the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 in the week ending October 15 to 260,000 from the previous week’s total of 247,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000 to 250,000 last week.

    In addition, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business conditions index came in at 9.7 this month, down from 12.8 in September. Economists had expected a reading of 5.3 this month.

    EUR/USD was down 0.47% at a four-month low of 1.0922 after the ECB left interest rates unchanged at record lows of zero and held its quantitative easing program unchanged at €80 billion per month.

    In a subsequent press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank would wait for updated economic forecasts in December to make a decision and that it had not discussed either tapering the size of its asset purchase program or extending the horizon of the purchases.

    GBP/USD dropped 0.46% to 1.2233. The U.K. Office for National Statistics earlier said that retail sales were flat in September, after a 0.2% decline the previous month and compared to expectations for a 0.4% rise.

    Year-on-year, retail sales increased 4.1% last month, disappointing expectations for a 4.8% rise.



    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Mirza
    Executive Coordinator

 

 
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