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  1. #1
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    Fundamental Analysis

    ECB Testimony & US GDP In Focus Now


    September 21, 2015

    Even after FOMC officials failed to lift the Fed rate during its much awaited September monetary policy meeting, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn't reflect the pessimism and closed in a positive territory as some of the policy makers, in their public speeches during weekend, remained optimistic for the first interest rate hike since 2006 to take place during the current year. The Federal Reserve, in its quarterly economic projections, lowered growth and inflation forecasts together with cutting down longer-term interest rate path; however, 13 out of 17 policy makers still expect rates to increase in 2015, strengthening the chances of December rate hike. The Euro closed in negative region against majority of its counterparts as weaker inflation mark kept favoring the extended QE while the GBP liquidated some of its early week gains, mainly fueled by upbeat labor market details, as one of the BoE policy makers, the chief economist, Andy Haldane, said that the next move by the BoE could be an interest rate cut rather than a hike. Uncertainty in the global market kept favoring the JPY while Gold rallied to three week hike on safe haven demand. Moreover, the commodity currencies, namely the AUD, NZD and CAD, remained positive as commodity basket halted its decline.

    After the September FOMC proved less harmful to the USD, market players would closely examine the US economics in order to determine the chances of December rate hike as fewer people expect any moves by the Fed in October. Hence, this week's final reading of Q2 2015 US GDP, coupled with the US Durable Goods Orders and some of the housing market numbers, will be of higher importance. Moreover, testimony by the ECB President and Flash readings of Manufacturing & Services PMIs, for EU and Germany, are some other details that could continue making Forex traders busy during the rest of the week. It should also be noted that Japanese markets will be observing holidays through Wednesday and has only Inflation figures on the plate to release while there isn't anything important scheduled to publish from the UK in the upcoming week.

    US GDP, Durable Goods Orders And Housing Market Numbers To Determine USD Moves


    Having witnessed a cold reaction to the recent FOMC interest rate decision and economic projections, it becomes more important to closely examine the front-line US economics to determine chances of the Fed's interest rate hike during the current year. Hence, the Final version of Q2 2015 GDP, scheduled for Friday release, together with the monthly details of Durable Goods Orders, scheduled to release on Thursday, and figures relating to Existing and New Home Sales, to be published on Monday and Thursday respectively, are some of the stats that could help determine near-term USD moves; however, US GDP will gain more attention amongst all the details.



    Given that the recent market turmoil, triggered by China, caused the FOMC to stand pat on its current monetary policy, figures relating to the Q2 2015 GDP growth rate would be of utmost importance during the week. The growth number is expected to match its second estimation of 3.7% rise as compared to the previous quarter expansion of 0.6% on an annual basis. However, the monthly Durable Goods Orders, which also aptly describes the US economics, is likely to register a negative mark, with 2.0% contraction compared to its upwardly revised prior reading of +2.2% while the Core Durable Goods Orders are also bearing weaker growth consensus to 0.2% from previously downgraded number of +0.4%.

    Should the US growth figures, coupled with the durable goods orders, disappoint the market, speculations concerning the global economic slowdown hurting the world's largest economy strengthens that in-turn pushes away the chances of December rate hike and can provide near-term downside to the US Dollar. However, alternatively upbeat readings could support the FOMC hawks that still favor 2015 as a trigger to interest rate hike and could restrict the US Dollar downside.

    In addition to the mentioned top-tier economics, figures relating to Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales are also important to forecast intermediate USD moves. While the Existing Home Sales are likely to tick down a bit to 5.50M compared to its previous 5.59M, the New Home Sales can reimburse that loss with a three month high figure of 516K versus its 507K prior.

    Euro Move Depends On ECB President's Testimony And PMIs


    Recent comments from the ECB President, Mario Draghi, during the monetary policy meeting, revealed that the Euro region is facing troubles due to the Chinese action and the central bank stands ready to alter its 1.1 trillion QE, if needed. Moreover, the final reading of Inflation, released last week, printed a slower than expected price rise, favoring some of the ECB policy makers that support the QE extension. Hence, testimony by the ECB President, scheduled for Wednesday, becomes an important event to determine the central banker's intention relating to the QE future. Should the President conveys a dovish message and a need to either stretch the QE timeline beyond September 2016, which is more expected, or to increase the spectrum of bond buying, the regional currency is likely to witness further downside.

    Moreover, monthly readings of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, from EU and Germany, scheduled for publish on Wednesday as well, could provide additional details to determine whether the regional economy, together with the strong economic player, Germany, is in need for further monetary easing or not. Given these PMIs match their downbeat forecasts, chances are higher that the Euro could continue extending its recent downward trajectory.

    Rest of the Globe Details


    Other than the US GDP and ECB President's testimony, Chinese Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance numbers from Switzerland and New-Zealand, coupled with the Canadian Retail Sales and Japanese Inflation figures, are rest of the globe details that could help determine near-term Forex moves.

    Flash reading of Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, scheduled to release on early Wednesday, could become yet another Chinese detail to favor commodity decline and spread pessimism as the consensus favors one more below 50 reading, 47.6 versus upwardly revised prior of 47.3.

    Swiss and New-Zealand Trade Balance details, scheduled for publish on Tuesday and Thursday, favor further downsides of the CHF and NZD respectively. The Swiss Trade surplus is likely funneled down to 2.97B against 3.74B previous while the New-Zealand trade deficit bears the consensus of marking the lowest level last seen in November 2014, to -875M versus -649M prior.

    Moreover, the Wednesday's Canadian Retail Sales and the Friday's Japanese Inflation figures are some of the numbers to foresee near-term respective moves of the CAD and the JPY. Even if the recent Canadian retail sales figures have been weaker, the Core retail sales numbers can limit further downside of the Canadian Dollar, CAD. The Retail Sales previously grew 0.6% compared to the upwardly revised 0.9% prior while the Core number matched its downwardly revised 0.8% previous mark. Further, the Japanese National Core CPI y/y is expected to plunge negative for the first time since April 2013 while the Tokyo Core CPI y/y bears the consensus of marking the lowest reading since March 2013. Hence, weaker retail sales may continue dragging down the CAD; though, bounce in crude prices may help forecast further moves of the Loonie, as it is nicknamed, while the deflation marks in the Japanese economy favor the need of extra loose monetary easing and can force the JPY liquidate some of its recent gains.

  2. #2
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    Can This Week’s US NFP Favor Recent USD Up-move?

    September 28, 2015

    Last week, various central bank representatives, including the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the ECB President Mario Draghi, pumped considerable volatility into the forex market. Some of the influential FOMC members, together with the Fed Chair, repeated their words of expected interest rate hike during the current year in separate public speeches, which together with better Q2 2015 GDP figures, helped the US Dollar register across the board gains for second consecutive week. The Euro couldn't enjoy the ECB President's resistance from the need of QE alteration at this stage while the GBP witnessed considerable downside as dovish comments from the Bank of England (BoE) policy maker faded speculations favoring the central bank's interest rate hike during the current year. The JPY witnessed a bit downside with numbers relating to manufacturing and inflation indicating need of further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan while the commodities kept extending their declines as Chinese pessimism seems spreading the global disinflation fears.

    Looking forward, US labor market details and the EU Flash CPI are the releases that could dominate this week's trading practices while UK GDP and important PMIs may help determine the GBP moves. Moreover, Chinese official Manufacturing PMI, coupled with on-going rout of public speeches by BoE and Fed policy makers, are additional factors that are expected to continue fueling the Forex market volatility during the current week.

    Labor Market Details To Command USD Moves

    Even if the US Federal Reserve disappointed global markets with no interest rate hike in its September meeting, FOMC members, inclusive of the Fed Chair, kept being loud mouthed during their recent public appearances in favoring an interest rate hike this year with major focus put on improvement in labor market details. Hence, labor market details, including NFP, Unemployment rate and Earnings growth, are what the most market players would look for in order to expect an interest rate hike during the upcoming FOMC meetings in October and December.




    Latest figures from the US Bureau of labor statistics, released during early September, marked the first reading below 200K by the NFP since April; however, the Unemployment rate plunged to the lowest since May 2008 and reimbursed the losses emanated from the Non-farm Payrolls. Market consensus for the September month job details, scheduled for release on Friday, signals another +200K NFP, to 202K, and an unchanged Unemployment rate at 5.1% while the earnings are likely to register a slower growth of 0.2% against previously reported 0.3% rise. Moreover, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, believed to be an early signal for the NFP, scheduled for Wednesday release, is also expected to remain near is previous 190K by printing 191K and can support the overall optimism for the US labor market.

    With the expected resurgence of optimistic labor market details, chances of Fed's December rate hike gets strengthened if the actual marks meet forecast, favoring the USD up-move; however, global disinflation environment can call for the USD pullback should these details fail to portray the strong job market.

    Moreover, some of the FOMC members and the Fed Chair are going to have public appearances during the week that can provide greater insight into the Fed's next move and can help foresee near-term USD moves. Should they continue favoring an interest rate hike in 2015, the greenback is more likely to enjoy its recent up-move.

    Although, optimistic job numbers and hawkish comments from the Fed policy makers favor USD surge, some of the second-tier US economics, namely CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders, are likely registering a weaker mark and can pullback the recent USD advance should they meet consensus. US CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled for Tuesday, is expected to mark 96.2 figure versus 101.5 prior while the Manufacturing PMIs, namely Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, to be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, may print 53.2 and 50.8 against their respective previous readings of 54.4 and 51.1. Moreover, the Factory Orders, up for Friday release, is likely testing the three month lows with a contraction of orders by -0.9% compared to its 0.4% advance during prior month.

    EU CPI To Determine The Fate Of ECB's QE

    With the renewed global disinflationary concerns, mainly emanated from China, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been facing strong pressure to extend its Euro 1.1 trillion QE that is intended to end in September 2016. However, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, during his recent testimony before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee, said "even though renewed downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation have emerged, the central bank needs some time to analyze the economy in order to alter its QE, if needed" Hence, the Flash reading of EU CPI y/y, scheduled for release on Wednesday, becomes an important point of information to determine whether the regional economy is actually facing the disinflation risks, and the QE extension in-turn, or not.

    Preliminary reading of German CPI, scheduled for Tuesday, becomes an advance signal to determine the regional inflation outlook. While the inflation number from the biggest European economy, Germany, is likely to extend its contraction with -0.6% mark versus -0.4% prior, the EU CPI is expected to tick down to 0.0% from the previously revised down figure of 0.1%. Given the actual inflation releases either match the forecasts or deteriorate further, chances of the ECB announcing QE expansion gets strengthened, pushing down the regional currency, Euro. However, an alternative rise (except the strong jump in inflation figure) can only restrict the near-term declines of the Euro.

    GBP Trades To Depend Upon The UK GDP And PMIs

    Unless recently, the Bank of England (BOE) was also considered to be a strong contestant for an interest rate hike other than the Federal Reserve. However, off-late, after the Chinese move to devalue its currency, speculations have mounted that the central bank would refrain from altering its current interest rates. Moreover, fresh comments from BoE policy makers have also favored a delayed interest rate hike while some of them went farther and said the next move from the central bank would be of interest rate cut than a hike. Hence, Final reading of Q2 2015 UK GDP, scheduled for Wednesday release, coupled with Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI, to be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, become important to know the strength of UK economy.

    While the GDP number is likely to match its second estimate of 0.7% growth, the Manufacturing PMI seems to have been slowed down with 51.3 expected mark versus its previous 51.5 and the Construction PMI bears the forecast of printing 57.5 number compared to its 57.3 prior. Other than the economic numbers, speech by the BoE Governor, scheduled for Tuesday at Lloyds of London, also becomes a critical event to foresee GBP moves. Even if the economic numbers are less likely to provide further harm to the GBP, dovish comments from the BoE Governor can magnify the recent UK currency decline.

    Chinese Manufacturing And Rest Of The Globe Details

    Ever since the Yuan devaluation, global economies have been threatened by the Chinese slowdown, the global manufacturing hub. Should the leading manufacturing indices from China continue registering the contraction numbers, below 50, chances are higher that the commodity market and the commodity currencies, mainly, AUD, NZD and CAD, can continue witnessing downside pressure. However, strong Manufacturing numbers may restrict further declines of the commodity basket and the antipodeans while longer-term moves still favoring bears unless sustainably positive readings. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI and the Final reading of Caixin Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Thursday, are amongst these leading manufacturing indices. While the official figure is expected to remain unchanged at 49.7 the Final reading of Caixin Manufacturing PMI may rise a bit to 47.2 from its Flash 47.00 estimate. As the PMIs are struggling in the contraction region, chances are higher that the prices of commodity and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, can continue trading waters. However, a surprise expansion in these manufacturing indices may trigger a pullback in commodity prices and antipodeans.

    After recently weaker Japanese economics fueled concerns for another mammoth stimulus package by the Bank of Japan, Japanese Retail Sales y/y and Prelim Industrial Production m/m, scheduled for Wednesday, become important to determine near-term JPY moves. The monthly retail sales growth figure is expected to slow down a bit to 1.3% from its upwardly revised 1.8% prior while the Prelim Industrial Production is expected to reverse its previous -0.8% downward revision figure with +1.1% gains. Should these releases match their consensus, JPY can continue its upward trajectory. However, weaker readings aren't expected to provide much harm to the Japanese currency as global economic uncertainty can continue favoring the safe haven demand of the JPY.

    Australian Building Approvals and Retail Sales, scheduled for Wednesday and Friday respectively, may provide further details, in addition to Chinese Manufacturing PMIs, to forecast AUD moves. While the Building Approvals are likely to plunge negative -1.9% against its previous +4.2% gain, the Retail Sales bears the consensus of printing 0.4% mark versus its prior -0.1% decline. Considering the Chinese pessimism, only strong numbers can help the AUD witness noticeable pullback while the weaker readings can continue pulling down the Australian currency.

  3. #3
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    Holiday Season To Offer Quiet Market Sessions

    Federal Reserve's once in a decade interest rate lift, to between 0.25% and 0.50%, coupled with the optimistic tone of Fed Chair, helped raising expectations for further interest rate hikes in 2016 and fueled the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to snap a two-week of losing streak with more than 1% gain on a weekly basis. The Euro, however, remained weaker with ECB's monetary policy divergence as compared to the US Fed and a dovish message from the central bank's chief economist. Moving on, the GBP maintained its decline against majority of its counterparts as one of the BoE's MPC members favored a bit more of wait for the central bank's interest rate lift considering weaker inflation scenario while lesser than expected Earnings growth & higher Claimant Count Change became some more reasons for the UK currency to maintain its south-run. Moreover, the JPY remained firm after the BoJ announced changes in its massive stimulus program rather than altering the amount of QE while the NZD extended its gains with an improvement in dairy prices & higher GDP print; however, the AUD and CAD kept running into losses as global supply glut and pessimism at China favored additional downside of major commodity prices, including Copper and Crude.

    With the Christmas just around the corner, market players are less likely to participate actively during final two weeks of 2015, resulting quiet trading sessions; however, GDP numbers from Canada, UK & US, coupled with US Durable Goods Orders and housing market details, are some of the important economics that might support Forex liquidity during the current holiday shortened week.

    US GDP May Direct Further USD Moves

    After global markets celebrated Fed's interest rate hike, the next question relates to future moves of the US central bank which recently sound more hawkish for its economic growth. Hence, final reading of Q3 2015 GDP becomes more important for the USD traders to determine whether the Fed has enough scope for further interest rate lift or not.



    The US GDP registered considerable growth of 3.9% during Q2 2015; however, early estimations concerning third quarter growth marked 2.1% increase in US economic activity while final reading for the same, scheduled for Tuesday release, is expected to print 1.9% number. Considering recently upbeat US economics, the GDP is more likely to print a welcome number, offering an ease to the US central banker in further rate hikes; though, a pessimistic reading may raise the bars for the Fed to announce future lifts in its benchmark interest rate.

    Other than the GDP, numbers relating to Existing and New Home Sales, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, coupled with Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders, are some other indicators that may help determine near-term USD moves. While Existing Home Sales are likely to decline a bit with 5.32M, compared to 5.36M prior, the New Home Sales number is expected to mark three months' high with 507K against 495K printed in October. Moreover, Durable Goods Orders may disappoint the USD traders with -0.6% contraction versus its 3.0% gains for the month of October while Core reading for the same is likely printing 0.1% growth against 0.5% prior.

    Given the weaker readings by the headline US economics, mainly driven by the GDP, the Federal Reserve might have to wait for longer in order to announce another interest rate hike, favoring year-end profit booking moves by the US Dollar.

    Growth Numbers To Help Forecast GBP & CAD Trend

    Off-late the GBP has been on its southward trajectory as weaker economic readings, coupled with dovish messages from BoE members, favored prolonged easy monetary policy by the UK central bank. Though, higher than forecasted 0.5% growth rate by the Q3 2015 UK GDP number, scheduled for Wednesday release, may portray the nation's economic strength and harm some of the policy doves. Hence, a better print, more than the 0.5% second estimate & the previous 0.7% mark, could help the UK central bank in altering its economic outlook and signal an interest rate hike, which in-turn could trigger GBP up-move. In addition to the GDP number, UK Current Account detail, also scheduled for release on Wednesday, becomes an important indicator to foresee GBP moves. The current account deficit is likely to widen to -21.3B against its previous -16.8B and may magnify the recent GBP downside if the actual figure matches consensus.

    Canadian Dollar (CAD) maintained its south-run ever since the Crude prices, nation's main export, plunged; however, monthly reading of the GDP and Retail Sales, scheduled for release on Wednesday, becomes important to forecast near-term moves by the Loonie, as it is nicknamed. Even if the GDP and Retail Sales both registered a -0.5% print during their latest announcement, chances witnessing downbeat numbers are higher as list of headline Canadian numbers have been pessimistic off-late. Should the Canadian headline numbers keep portraying weak economic fundamentals, coupled with on-going decline in Crude prices, the CAD is more likely to extend its decline against majority of its counterparts.

    Japanese CPI, Unemployment Rate & Spending Details May Portray JPY Moves

    Even if the JPY traders considered a change in BoJ's stimulus as a positive indicator and provided additional strength to the Japanese currency, monthly readings concerning Household spending, CPI & Unemployment Rate, scheduled for Friday, become important to foresee further JPY moves.

    While the Household Spending is likely to cut its recent downside of -2.4% with -2.1% and CPI numbers for Tokyo Core CPI & National Core CPI are likely to improve, the Unemployment rate is expected to mark a higher number of 3.2% from its 3.1% prior. If the Japanese inflation numbers disappoint markets and the unemployment rate also ticks higher, concerns relating to the need of additional QE from BoJ can be renewed, favoring the JPY downside; however, safe-haven demand of the same Japanese Yen may help limit further decline by the currency.

  4. #4
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    An Uneventful last week of 2015

    Even if the year-end holiday season restricted market moves during last week, sluggish economic details pushed US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards a negative weekly closing. The EUR and JPY remained mostly firm against majority of its counterparts and the GBP maintained its downturn with slower GDP growth indicating later than expected interest rate hike by the BoE. Moving on, the antipodeans, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, all stayed positive as commodity prices improved, lead by the Crude which gained heavily due to depleting U.S. inventories and a sustained cut in the number of US drilling rigs.Current week, which will close the year 2015, can be termed as "an uneventful one" due to the lack of economic details scheduled for publish. However, US CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI might become helpful in forecasting near-term USD moves while official readings of Chinese Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI can help providing some intermediate moves to the global financial markets.US Economics To Dominate This Week's Trading

    Dearth of data-points from the rest of the global economics would drive market players' attention on the scheduled US economic details, namely CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI, to ascertain the Fed's ability to extend its monetary policy tightening path. Amongst the scheduled US readings, monthly CB Consumer Confidence, up for Tuesday release, becomes more important as improvement in consumer sentiment, to an expected 93.9 from 2015 lows of 90.4, may support rest of the US economics and could help the central bank move forward in their interest rate hikes during 2016. Moving on, the Pending Home Sales, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is likely to register the highest growth in seven months, to +0.6% against +0.2% prior, while the Chicago PMI, to be released on Thursday, is expected to favor manufacturing expansion with 50.4 mark versus prior contraction of 48.7. Moreover, consensus relating to weekly Jobless Claims, out on Thursday, favors a three week high print of 274K against 267K registered in the previous week. Surprise downbeat prints from the scheduled US numbers, coupled with the year-end profit booking, could magnify recent greenback declines and raise the bars for the Federal Reserve's 2016 rate hike series; however, absence of global economic statistics may continue limiting big moves.Chinese PMIs Manage End Of The Week

    In addition to the US details, official PMI numbers concerning the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors of the world's largest industrial player, China, may manage to provide market moves during following trading sessions.



    The aforementioned chart signals that the Chinese manufacturing sector has been continuously contracting during last four months; however, forecasts concerning the Manufacturing PMI for the December month, scheduled for Friday release, mentions a point closer print to the 50.0 mark, favoring expansion, with 49.9 against 49.6 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely maintaining its up-move in above 50.00 number. Being the world's largest Industrial economy and the largest commodity consumer, another downbeat print by the Manufacturing PMI could negatively affect recent improvement in commodity prices and the commodity currencies, namely, AUD, CAD and NZD.

    Year-end holidays, coupled with fewer economics, could continue limiting trading volumes during the uneventful last week of 2015; however, high degree of deviation from the scheduled data points might still trigger some volatile moves in the Forex market.

  5. #5
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    2016 Starts With Handful of Economic Data-Points To Watch

    Although weaker Home Sales and near six months high Jobless Claims drove down the US Dollar Index during last week of 2015, the greenback index (I.USDX) headed for the third annual winning streak as the Federal Reserve successfully lifted its benchmark interest rate from near-zero levels and conveyed an optimistic status relating to the health of world's largest economy. Contrast to the USD, currencies of Europe, Japan and some other global economies, like AUD, NZD, CHF and CAD, which gained during the dull trading days of last week, were mostly adhered to negative yearly closing with JPY going down for the record fourth year and the Euro slumped for a second year in a row on loose monetary policies. Further, China kept struggling with its economic weakness, as indicated by repeated below 50.00 readings of its headline Manufacturing PMIs, while the Crude prices, which plunged heavily during 2015, recovered a bit as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalated in last week, giving hope of supply disruptions from major crude producers.

    As market players return from year-end holiday season, handful of economic data-points could offer volatile trading sessions during the current week. Notable amongst them are headline PMI numbers from US & UK, monthly details of US labor market and minutes of December FOMC meeting which triggered the Fed's first rate hike since 2006. Moreover, Inflation numbers from China and Europe, coupled with Australian Trade Balance and Building Permits, are some other indicators that might provide busy trading schedule to market participants.

    US Job Numbers And FOMC Minutes Could Gain The Limelight

    After witnessing another positive yearly close by the US Dollar Index, together with Fed's once in a decade interest rate hike, market players are now likely to focus more on consecutive rate lift-offs by the US central banker. Even if the Federal Reserve, during its latest monetary policy meeting, signaled that it could announce four interest rate hikes during 2016, all of them would be data-dependant and hence increases the importance of all the upcoming economic indicators, including this week's US employment details concerning December month. Moreover, minutes of recently concluded FOMC meeting would also become helpful to determine near-term USD moves as details of what exactly made the policy makers support an interest-rate hike and their preparedness for some more of the same moves during the current year will gain more attention.



    As it can be witnessed from the aforementioned chart, US Unemployment has been steadily coming down while the NFP, another important indicator to gauge job market strength, maintained its level above 200K. However, details relating to both these headline job numbers for the December month, scheduled for Friday, can become helpful to see how these indicators are performing and whether the US central bank will be in a better position to follow their forecasted path of four rate hikes a year. While the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings are less likely to change from their previous 5.0% and 0.2% numbers respectively, the NFP is expected to mark a small correction during the announcement with 202K mark against 211K prior. Even if downbeat numbers can trigger short-term USD decline, the same is less likely to favor drastic south-run unless being extremely passive as these numbers are only the first to be released in 2016.

    Minutes of December FOMC meeting, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, can help portray upcoming moves of the greenback. During the meeting, the Federal Reserve matched market expectation of a 0.25% interest rate hike and the Fed Chair spread hawkish remarks relating to the strength of the US economy; however, the central banker held most of its quarterly economic forecast intact and said the upcoming interest moves will be gradual and data-dependent. Given the interest rate hike and upbeat comments from the Fed Chair, details favoring strong US economic outlook may help greenback gain some of its recently lost ground; however, discussions mentioning a delay in rate hike actions might trap the greenback for immediate downside.

    In addition the headline events, monthly releases of ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, ADP Non-farm Employment Change and Trade Balance are some other data-points that USD traders might be interested in looking for. Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to inch closer to the 50 mark by printing 49.1 number against its more than a two year low of 48.6 marked during previous reading while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI may continue its up-move with 56.00 mark versus 55.9 prior. Further, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, early indicator for Friday's NFP, which is up for Wednesday release, bears the consensus of marking 193K against 217K prior and the monthly Trade Balance details, scheduled for the same day release, may reveal a bit higher deficit of -44.0B compared to -43.9B registered previously. As majority of data-points signal a bit weaker start of USD, actual numbers meeting consensus can pave the way for first negative week of 2016.

    EU CPI May Command EUR Moves

    While there are fewer events to be published from Europe during the current week, Flash reading of December month CPI, up for Tuesday release, can help determine the inflationary scenario within the troubled region. The headline number is likely marking the highest level in more than a year with 0.4% mark against previously revised +0.2% and can help the EUR extend its recent short-covering rally. Moreover, German Factory Orders, scheduled for Thursday, can also help forecast immediate EUR moves as being the data of region's largest economy. The order growth is likely shrinking from its four month high of 1.8% to 0.1% and can limit the EUR gains. Hence, even if the positive inflation number can favor continuation of short-term EUR recovery, ECB's lose monetary policy, coupled with weaker factory order detail, may confine major gains by the Euro.

    PMIs And Trade Balance To Portray Near-Term GBP Trend

    Having realized Monday's three month low UK Manufacturing PMI, which printed 51.9 against 52.8 consensus & 52.5 prior, Tuesday's Construction PMI and Wednesday's Services PMI become crucial to base the GBP trades on; Moreover, November month Trade Balance details, scheduled for Friday, can also help depicting the short-term moves of the UK currency. While the Construction PMI is expected to mark 56.1 number against 55.3 prior and the trade deficit is also likely to shrink to -10.5B versus -11.8B, consensus relating to Services PMI reveals weakness into the crucial sector of UK economy with 55.6 mark against 55.9 prior. Journey of downbeat UK economics can continue favoring expectations of delayed interest-rate by the Bank of England, which in-turn might force the GBP traders to maintain their dovish outlook for the UK currency.

    Details From China, Australia And Canada Are The Rest To Watch

    Following dismal readings of Chinese Manufacturing PMIs, monthly details of inflation numbers from the dragon nation may help determine the inflationary pressure onto the troubled economy. While the CPI is expected to improve a bit from its 1.5% prior to 1.7% and the PPI is also likely to mark -5.8% versus -5.9% prior during their Saturday release, the PPI is still into the negative region. With the inflation numbers still struggling to provide upbeat scenario of world's largest industrial player, actual readings matching the same could add further weakness into the commodity prices and the commodity currencies, namely, AUD, CAD and NZD.

    Even if weakness at the China, Australia's largest consumer, keep favoring AUD weakness, recent improvement in Australian data-points helped the nation's central bank, the RBA, avoid further interest rate cuts and triggered a short-covering rally in Aussie prices. Should monthly releases of Australian Building Approvals, Trade Balance and Retail Sales print mark upbeat numbers the AUD can extend its recent advance. The Building Approvals, scheduled for Thursday release, are expected to mark first contraction in three months with -2.8% against +3.9% prior while the Trade Deficit may shrink to -2.98B against -3.31B during the same day announcement. Moreover, Friday's Retail Sales number is also likely to mark a bit slower growth 0.4% against 0.5% prior. While Chinese pessimism and expected downbeat readings may reverse AUD's near-term gains, strong numbers would strengthen the chances of another rate-cut hold and may further strengthen the Aussie, as it is nicknamed.

    Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been the victim of weaker Crude prices and sluggish economics; though, recent tensions in middle-east helped the energy price advance which in-turn favored short-covering moves by the CAD. Though, Canadian job numbers for the month of December, coupled with Trade Balance, are likely details that can help forecast immediate CAD moves in addition to tracking updates relating to the Crude. Wednesday's Trade Balance details may trigger CAD recovery with -2.6B deficit against -2.8B prior which can be carried forward with 10.4K addition into the Employment Change versus -35.7K prior and a stagnant Unemployment Rate at 7.1%. Recent geo-political tensions in Middle-East, which helped the Crude price pullback, may offer support to the Canadian Dollar's pullback in addition to the upbeat job numbers, if matched forecasts.

  6. #6
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    Fewer Data-Points To Confine This Week’s Forex Moves

    During the first full week of 2016, turmoil from China derailed the global financial markets by spreading heavy losses and dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down even as the December US non-farm payrolls number marked remarkable strength. Chinese pessimism, triggered by weaker headline PMIs, gained momentum during later part of the week when the PBOC devalued Yuan for eight consecutive days and caused losses to Crude and commodity oriented currencies, namely, AUD, NZD and CAD; however, the same move helped the JPY and the Gold prices due to safe-haven demand. Moreover, the GBP extended its downside with weaker than expected data-points while the EUR remained more or less stable with no major economics to publish.Moving forward, the current week has fewer economic details that could confine big moves of the forex market. However, Australian job numbers, US Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Manufacturing and UoM Consumer Sentiment, coupled with the UK Manufacturing Production, BoE meeting and the Chinese Trade Balance, are some of the data-points that might provide good trading opportunities.Consumer Centric US Details Could Help Forecast USD Moves

    While Chinese pessimism kept escalating fears that the Fed would find it difficult to introduce consecutive rate hikes, consumer-centric numbers, namely the Retail Sales and the UoM Consumer Sentiment, may help determine immediate moves of the greenback.

    Other than the Thursday, when the weekly Jobless Claims number will be out (expected 275K v/s 277K prior), US economic calendar is active during Friday when monthly releases of Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment are scheduled for publish. Amongst them, the Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment are likely to drive this week's USD moves. Both these figures aren't favoring the greenback up-move as the Retail Sales growth is expected to contract for the first time in six months with -0.1% mark versus +0.2% prior while the Core Retail-Sales forecast favors 0.2% print against 0.4% prior. Also, the preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment gauge is also likely to remain near the upwardly revised previous mark of 92.6 by marking 92.7 number. Moreover, the PPI is expected to liquidate its last month's gain of +0.3% with another negative reading of -0.2% and the Empire State Manufacturing, even after likely to mark the six month highs with -4.1 against -4.6 prior, may remain in the negative region. With recently released upbeat job details failing to help the greenback extend 2015 gains, weaker consumer-centric data-points may provide further downside to the US Dollar.Chinese Trade Balance And Australian Labor Market Numbers To Portray AUD Trend

    Even if troubles at China, Australia's largest consumer, keep pushing the Australian Dollar down, December month Chinese Trade Balance numbers and labor market details from the Australia may help determine near-term Australian Dollar (AUD) moves.



    Wednesday's Chinese Trade Balance is expected to match recently downbeat Chinese numbers with smaller surplus of 339B against 343B prior and the Australian Bureau of Statistics is also expected to reveal sharp turnaround in December month labor market numbers during its Thursday announcement. The Employment Change is likely contracting with the highest pace in 10 months, by printing -11.0K versus 71.4K released during last month while the Unemployment rate is also forecasted to disturb three month slid with a 5.9% mark against 5.8% prior. Should Australian job numbers cause disappointment, negative wipes from China gets stronger, signaling further downside of the AUD. On the contrary, better than expected releases still need to confront the pessimism from its largest consumer and might provide only short-lived up-moves to the nation's currency unless being drastically high.GBP Traders Should Look For UK Manufacturing Production & BoE Details

    Weaker UK details continue spreading worries that the BoE policy makers might have to wait longer before announcing monetary policy tightening and continue pulling the GBP downwards. Though, monthly details of UK Manufacturing Production, scheduled for Tuesday, and the Thursday's monetary policy meeting by the Bank of England (BoE) could help foresee near-term moves of the UK currency.Forecast concerning November month Manufacturing Production reflects a reversal of prior -0.4% contraction with +0.1% mark and only one BoE MPC member is expected to vote for an interest rate hike. However, recently released negative economic data-points, coupled with the Chinese turmoil, might force the UK central bank in uttering some dovish words. Even if the Manufacturing Production prints a welcome number, dovish BoE statement, due to Chinese trauma, may continue dragging the GBP towards south unless there is extreme up-mark by the data.Japanese Details May Support Projecting Further JPY Up-move

    Global market threats, mainly emanating from China, have continued helping the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY); however, monthly releases of Consumer Confidence, Economy Watchers Sentiment and the PPI, can provide fundamental support to project further up-moves of the JPY.

    Although, Tuesday's Japanese Consumer Confidence is expected to mark a bit weaker print of 42.3 against 42.6 prior and the Economy watchers sentiment is also likely revealing another below 50 reading with 46.7 versus 46.1 previous, December month PPI, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to mark the highest number since April 2015 with -0.4% as compared to -3.6% revealed for the month of November.

    As global pessimism favors safe-haven demand of the JPY, upbeat economic data-points could help the BoJ in refraining from further monetary policy easing and can provide extended up-move to the Japanese currency.

  7. #7
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    Top-Tier Releases To Propel This Week’s Forex Moves

    Even if the US economic calendar failed to provide welcome numbers, weaker than forecast readings from Europe, coupled with dovish remarks of the ECB President and expectations favoring further monetary easing by the BoJ, again shifted market focus to monetary policy divergence between the US Fed and the rest of the major central bankers, which in-turn helped the greenback index (I.USDX) secure consecutive second weekly gain. The Euro remained mostly on the downside after the ECB head said low inflation worries might force the central bank to act during March meeting while lesser than consensus PMIs further dragged the regional currency down. Moving on, the GBP reversed some of its recent losses after receiving upbeat UK job and inflation numbers while JPY dropped against majority of its counterparts after softer data-points, together with a downbeat message from one of the BoJ policymaker, magnified concerns for further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. Moreover, profit booking in the Crude prices from 13 year lows, coupled with a bit of weather demand, helped the AUD, NZD and CAD register gains during last week while CAD was also helped by the BOC's decision to refrain from additional monetary easing.Moving forward, monetary policy meetings by the FOMC, RBNZ and the BoJ are likely to take the center-stage of the market during the current week while GDP numbers from US and UK, coupled with EU Flash CPI, US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders, are some of the economic details that could propel this week's forex moves.US GDP and FOMC Might Help Foresee USD Trend

    Although recently soft US data-points have raised concerns that the US Federal Reserve might refrain from its expected four rate hikes during 2016, advance estimation of Q4 2015 GDP, coupled with the monetary policy meeting of the US central bank, could help determine the chances of further interest-rate lifts by the Fed and foresee near-term USD trend.



    Aforementioned chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals that the US growth number has been volatile since 2011 and it recently confirmed 2.0% mark for Q3 2015, which was lower than the 3.9% growth for the Q2. Forecast relating to the Q4 2015 GDP growth, scheduled for release on Friday, indicates a 0.8% number for the world's largest economy. While pessimism at China and weaker Crude prices were largely expected to provide harm to global economic growth, and the US isn't an objection, softer print could raise the bars for the US central bank in announcing rate-hikes during its consecutive monetary policy meetings.

    Monetary policy meeting by the FOMC, on Wednesday, becomes another important event, in addition to GDP release, that could help analyze USD moves. Even if the Fed isn't expected to alter its monetary policy at this meeting, neither does the meeting has Fed Chair's press conference scheduled, market players are likely to examine the FOMC statement in detail to predict chances of further rate-hikes by the central bank. While absence of Fed Chair's press conference reduces the importance of FOMC meeting, soft growth numbers, together with downbeat tone of the FOMC members, considering global economic worries triggered by China, could reverse some of the recent gains earned by the greenback.

    Other than the GDP and FOMC, monthly releases of US CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales and the Chicago PMI, are some of the second-tier economics that could propel the USD waves. While Tuesday's official Consumer Confidence index is likely to remain near the previous 96.5 by marking 96.6, housing market details, namely the New and Pending Home Sales, up for respective releases on Wednesday and Thursday, may print welcome numbers with New Home Sales consensus signaling 503K versus 490K prior and the Pending Home Sales growth of 1.1% against previous contraction of -0.9%. Moreover, the Durable Goods Orders, to be published on Thursday, bears the forecast of registering -0.7% mark against 0.0% prior while the Core reading is likely reimbursing its prior -0.1% with 0.0% number and the Chicago PMI, even after expected to print 45.4 against 42.9, still bears a soft consensus and likely maintaining its shrink by being below 50.00 mark. Even if the housing market details are likely to print upbeat numbers, negative marks of the Durable Goods Orders, coupled with unchanged Consumer Confidence, can drag the US Dollar down.EU Inflation & UK GDP To Determine EUR & GBP Trades Respectively

    Irrespective of the last week's ECB President's comments favoring further monetary easing during March meeting, January month EU Flash CPI, to be published on Friday, becomes a crucial reading for the central bank to watch as the number is expected to mark the highest point since October 2014 with 0.4% against 0.2% prior. Moving on, Preliminary UK GDP release for the Q4 2015, scheduled for Thursday, is likely joining the recent upbeat data stream by marking 0.5% growth against 0.4% print revealed for Q3 2015. Should the Euro-area inflation matches forecast, concerns relating to further monetary easing announcement during March become less expected, fueling the regional currency higher while upbeat UK GDP number can provide additional strength to the GBP in recovering recent losses.NZD & AUD Traders Should Look RBNZ Details And Australian Inflation Figures

    Recent pullbacks in Crude prices helped commodity currencies, including NZD & AUD, stop their downside; however, this week's RBNZ, New-Zealand Trade Balance, up for Wednesday, and Inflation numbers from Australia might help further project the moves of the NZD and AUD respectively.

    After the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest-rate during December meeting, it is less likely to announce any further monetary policy action; though, pessimism at China, coupled with weakness in Crude prices, might force the central bank to favor further easing in future. Further, January month New-Zealand Trade Balance is likely to register -130M number against -779M marked in December. Looking at the Australian CPI and PPI, up for Wednesday and Friday respectively, the headline inflation readings are likely to mark softer numbers by being at 0.3% and 0.6% against 0.5% and 0.9% priors.

    With the global commodity markets being still under pressure, mainly due to China and Crude supply glut, a surprise rate-cut by the RBNZ can extend the NZD downward trajectory while weaker Australian Inflation number might add downside pressure onto the AUD.JPY Trend Could Rely On BoJ Details

    Friday becomes an important day for the JPY traders as the Japanese Inflation numbers, coupled with the BoJ monetary policy meeting, are set to take place on the same day. Following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor's speech, at the WEF, that Japanese inflation expectations are weakening, market players have started looking for the hints of further monetary easing by the BoJ. Release of the said monetary policy meeting detail is also accompanied by the quarterly economic outlook announcement and the press conference by the BoJ Governor. Moreover, Japanese inflation figures, scheduled for publish on the same day, are likely to maintain their 0.1% mark.

    Given the extended timeline for inflation target achievement and weaker economic outlook, coupled with hints for further monetary easing, the JPY can continue extending its recent downside; however, broader safe-haven demand might restrict the currency's crash.

  8. #8
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    Central Bankers And Job Details To Offer Another Volatile Week


    With a surprise negative rate announcement by the BoJ and dovish messages from the ECB and BoE heads, market players' attention again shifted towards the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and rest of the major central banks, helping the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to close the week on a flat note even if headline economic details, including Durable Goods Orders, marked soft numbers and the FOMC sound worried about the global inflation hurting their rate-hike path. Moving on, commodity currencies, namely AUD, CAD and NZD, printed positive weekly closing against its US counterpart due to pullback in commodity prices, headed by Crude bounce, while no rate-cut by the RBNZ provided additional support to the NZD.

    After major central bankers helped magnifying the Forex volatility during last week, job details from US, Canada & New-Zealand and monetary policy meetings of the RBA & the BoE, together with BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), could take those liquid moves a step forward. Moreover, headline PMI announcements from the US & the UK, in addition to the ECB President's testimony, are some other details/events that could make forex traders busy throughout the upcoming week.

    Job Details Are What The USD Traders Would Be Concerned About


    While monetary policy divergence helped the greenback ignore last week's soft data-points, January month labor market details, namely the Earnings, NFP and the Unemployment Rate, scheduled for Friday release, gain the market attention as soft job numbers might raise another hurdle for the Fed's 1.0% rate-hike plan which seems currently disturbed by global inflation worries.



    As can be informed from the aforementioned chart, US NFP has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations for three-consecutive months till Dec. 2015, making the yearly average of 215K while the unemployment rate has also been held steady from Oct. 2015 at 5.0%, the lowest level since May 2008. However, consensus relating to January month reading favors a slide in NFP to 192K, lowest in four months, and one more unchanged print by the Unemployment Rate at 5.0%. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings is likely heading to test three months high with 0.3% growth against 0.0% prior while the early signal for Friday's crucial NFP, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled for Wednesday release, is also expected to test the three month low with 193K print as compared to 257K prior.

    Other than the headline labor market numbers, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, scheduled for respective release on Monday and Wednesday, Factory Orders, up for Thursday release, and the monthly Trade Balance, to be released on Friday, are some other US data-points that could help predict near-term US Dollar moves. While forecast relating to ISM-Manufacturing PMI favors another below-50 mark, with 48.6 against 48.2 prior, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to print 55.1 number as compared to 55.3 prior, the Factory Orders are likely contracting the steepest in a year with -2.5% versus -0.2% marked last month and the Trade Balance deficit is also expected to widen to -42.9B from its -42.4B prior.

    Even as steady Unemployment Rate and higher Earnings, coupled with renewed monetary policy divergence concerns, favor USD strength, soft prints by the NFP and some of the second-tier economic details might hold the greenback's up-move captive.

    Draghi's Testimony Can Help Forecast ECB's Next Action


    ECB President Mario Draghi, even after being famous for his bold attempts & hawkish tone, has recently spread his concern for global deflation and said that the central bank might not refrain from taking additional measures to safeguard the economy from such threats. The President, who is scheduled to present Testimony before the European Parliament on Monday, may utter some words on monetary policy guidance for the ECB in addition to speaking how the economy have reacted to central bank's measures. Should the testimony be an echo of what the central banker said last week, chances of another monetary policy easing measure announcement in March and an extended EUR downside can't be denied. However, concentration on the ECB's good work and an optimistic tone for the region's future might help the Euro recover some of its recent declines.

    In addition to the ECB President's Testimony, monthly reading of German Factory Orders, up for Friday release, becomes the only detail to help foresee EUR moves. The number from the Euro-region's largest economy is expected to test the lowest in three months by printing -0.3% against +1.5% prior, which if matched the consensus, might drag the EUR further down.

    BoE Inflation Report And Headline PMIs Could Direct GBP Moves


    Bank of England's Quarterly announcement of Inflation Report, QIR, up for Thursday, becomes an eye-catcher for all the GBP participants as the UK currency slid more than 8% since the last announcement was made in November when the central bank sound worried about commodity decline hurting global inflation outlook and downgraded their forecast for near-term growth and inflation. The central bank, alike previous QIR announcement, is also scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting and release the minutes of the same together with the QIR release. Further, UK Construction & Services PMIs, scheduled for release on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, become some more important news out of the Britain to predict near-term GBP moves.

    Following Monday's UK Manufacturing PMI printed highest level in three months with 52.9 number versus 51.8 consensus and 52.1 prior, the Construction PMI is likely being near the previous release of 57.8 by marking 57.6 while the Services PMI, core to the UK economy, is also expected to remain around the previous 55.5 mark with 55.4 forecasted number.

    Considering recently released downbeat UK details, dovish message from the BoE Governor, coupled with another downgraded economic forecast in QIR, can continue extending the GBP's southward trajectory.

    Rest Of The Globe Details


    Although BoE and US job numbers are likely to gain the most market attention during current week, monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), together with the labor market details from Canada and New-Zealand, are rest of the globe details that can continue fueling the Forex liquidity through the upcoming sessions.

    RBA, in its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, is expected stretch the hold on monetary policy for eight consecutive time; however, market players are more likely to observe details of the RBA statement to look for any hints relating to central bank's future monetary policy action as its largest consumer, China, has been struggling off-late. Given the central bank maintains its tone of economic improvement, as it has been, chances of the AUD up-move becomes brighter; though, pessimism at China, as supported by recently released headline PMIs, might restrict further upside of the Australian currency.

    Moving forward, quarterly details of New-Zealand Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, out for Tuesday release, in addition to the January month Employment Change and Unemployment Rate from Canada, scheduled for Friday, are the numbers that could help foresee near-term trend of the NZD and CAD respectively. While the New-Zealand Unemployment rate is expected to print 6.1%, the highest levels since the data was released in November 2013, against 6.0% prior, the Canadian Unemployment is likely remaining constant at 7.1%. However, consensus relating to the Canadian Employment Change favors a lower print of 5.4K against 2.8K prior while the same release from New-Zealand is expected to test the highest level in four quarters with 0.8% mark as compared to prior -0.4% reading. While renewed downside pressure of the Crude, Canada's main export, coupled with weaker job details might halt the recent CAD upside, improvement in New-Zealand labor market details can favor the RBNZ's recent announcement of not altering the interest-rate and help the NZD regain its strength.

  9. #9
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    Absence of Top-Tier Economics Could Hold-Back This Week’s Forex Moves

    During early days of the last week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) was dragged down by disappointing economic data-points and dovish comments from some of the FOMC members which tamed speculations that the US Federal Reserve could stick to its plan of four interest-rate hikes in 2016. The downfall was strong enough to counter Friday's eight year low Unemployment Rate and a year's high Earnings detail by fetching the greenback gauge to negative weekly closing for the first time in four weeks. The GBP continued on its up-move and ignored the BoE's downgraded forecasts for near-term Inflation and growth numbers as positive economic releases and a bit hawkish tone of the BoE Governor favored the UK currency's strength while the AUD was hit by the RBA's choice to left the doors open for interest-rate cuts in future. Further, the NZD remained strong against majority of its counterparts due to surprise plunge in Unemployment rate and hawkish comments from RBNZ while the CAD enjoyed the recent strength of Crude prices and registered weekly positive closing. Moreover, weaker USD and risk-off market sentiment continued favoring the JPY and the Gold for one more week.Unlike last week, the current week might witness less liquid market sessions as there are fewer catalysts scheduled for publish; however, US Retail Sales and a testimony by the US Federal Reserve Chair, coupled with EU Flash GDP, UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance, are some of the data-points that might propel some liquidity into the world's largest financial market.US Retail Sales and Fed Chair's Testimony To Guide USD Moves

    With the recently weaker dataflow, except Friday's job report, in addition to nearness with March FOMC meeting, market players are likely focusing more on incoming US details to forecast whether the Fed could actually practice its plan of 1.0% rate-hike during the current year. Hence, January month Retail Sales coupled with Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment for the month of February, up for Friday release, become important for the USD traders as it would reflect the state of consumer confidence in the world's largest economy. Moreover, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy before the House of Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, will be on market players' radar as comments relating to the future actions of the Fed, in relation to interest-rate hikes, could help predict near-term greenback moves.The Retail Sales and the Core Retail Sales are both likely to reverse their prior -0.1% mark with +0.1% and 0.0% mark respectively while the Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to mark 92.6 number against the downwardly revised prior to 92.00. Moreover, the US Fed Chair, in addition to testifying the monetary policy stance of the central bank, might also comment on the present economic scenario of the US, if the question arises, which in-turn could help knowing whether the recent downtick in economic numbers really stops the central banker from its planned interest-rate actions for the year 2016 or not.While lack of major releases, coupled with upbeat forecasts from consumer-centric details, favors the USD up-move, market players would closely observe comments from the Fed Chair. Should the central banker continue remaining hawkish on monetary policy stance, chances of the greenback recovering some of its recent losses can't be denied.EU GDP To Help Forecast The Euro Trend

    Even as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced monetary policy actions in the month of December, the Euro region is still left to witness any positive outcomes and the central bank chief, Mario Draghi, recently said that the global worries might force them to announce additional measures during its March meeting. However, Preliminary readings of Q4 2015 GDP number for the Germany and the EU, scheduled for Friday, become important for the EUR traders as weaker reading increases chances of the ECB announcing another round of stimulus measures in its monetary policy meeting in March.



    Having marked the lowest reading in a year, with 0.3% growth rate, the EU GDP is likely to maintain the same 0.3% growth rate for the last quarter of 2015. The German GDP, alike EU number, is also likely to print 0.3% growth rate for one more time. Even as GDP readings are expected to maintain their previous growth numbers, those were the weakest in 2015 and reflect continued need of monetary policy stimulus, which in-turn favors EUR weakness. Should downbeat numbers disappoint the market, chances of a plunge in Euro prices become brighter.GBP Traders Should Watch UK Trade Balance And Manufacturing Production Numbers

    Alike recently upbeat UK releases, monthly details of the Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production, up for publish on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, are also expected to mark welcome numbers and can help cut speculations that the BoE might also go for interest rate-cut than a hike. The Trade deficit is likely to shrink to -10.4B against -10.6B and the Manufacturing Production is expected to reverse its previous contraction of -0.4% with 0.0% reading. With the scheduled second-tier releases likely joining the recently upbeat UK data-flow, the GBP becomes more likely to extend its near-term pullback except these numbers vary drastically from consensus.

 

 

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