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  1. #11
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    Date : 3rd MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    Caixin China Services PMI disappointed in February and came in at 51.2 while analysts expected a 0.2 point rise to 52.6 from January. Index is still an indication of expanding services sector but growth was modest and much weaker than the average growth in long term. The survey shows that contraction in the manufacturing sector can spill over into service sector. This could be a red flag for the government and push it to increase its stimulative efforts further. Chinese government has been trying to replace manufacturing and export with private consumption as a key driver for the economy.


    Fed’s Beige Book reiterated growth expanded in most Districts, according to the report prepared by the KC Fed, with contacts generally optimistic over future economic growth. Consumer spending increased in most regions, but some weakness was noted in KC and Dallas. Auto sales remained elevated. Manufacturing was mostly flat, but conditions varied considerably across Districts. Most note weak demand originating from the energy sector, not surprisingly. Additionally, the stronger dollar and weaker global growth outlook were headwinds to exports. Nonfinancial services activity was up slightly, with demand for staffing services in the rise. Transportation was mixed. Residential real estate was mostly on the rise, while home inventories were low. Residential construction activity had strengthened. Nonresidential sales also improved. Labor market conditions continued to improve. Wage growth varied from flat to strong across the 12 Districts, and most noted consumer prices were holding steady.


    SF Fed’s Williams said that domestic demand is overwhelming weakness from abroad and he sees the US service sector as the driver next year, while inflation should move back to 2% over the next couple years. He doesn’t see the stock market a good indicator of where the economy is going and doesn’t think that China will be a huge risk to the US economic outlook. Williams sees no tangible risk that the US will fall into recession and the Fed strategy of raising rates is the right one. He still sees some accommodation as needed, but over time favors normalization. This is in keeping with his more bullish view of the economy and consistent favoring of normalizing rates for this hawkish dove.


    The 214k February ADP rise beat the analyst estimates. The mining-restrained 5k rise in February goods jobs included a big 27k increase for construction jobs follows yesterday’s solid construction spending report to signal encouraging prospects for that sector, though we saw a 9k drop for factory jobs. A stronger than expected 208k climb for service sector jobs explained the headline ADP overshoot, and countered fears of a weakening service sector. U.S. reports over the last week have largely countered the market narrative of a slowing economy despite the big hit to trade revealed in last Friday’s trade data.


    Main Macro Events Today


    EMU Final Services PMI: The Eurozone Markit Services PMI for February, is expected to be confirmed at 53.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Confidence has been coming off, although mainly in the manufacturing sector, which is more focused on global headwinds and slowing emerging market growth. The services sector continues to benefit from robust domestic demand and PMI levels suggest ongoing expansion, but growth momentum is clearly slowing down and even a better than expected number would do little to dampen demands for further easing from the ECB.


    US initial jobless claims: Jobless claims are expected to be 270k in the week-ended February 27. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,229k for the week-ended February 20. Forecast risk: upward, as the end of the holidays should slow layoffs. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikess expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed.


    US Factory Orders: January factory orders are expected to grow 2.0% with inventories down 0.2%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger topline durable inventory numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact the path of rate hikes.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #12
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    Date : 4th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    The AUD, NZD and emerging nation currencies gained ground against the USD, JPY and other currencies, continuing to outperform as stocks in Asia built on weekly gains, posting the best winning streak of the year in many cases. AUDUSD logged a three-month high at 0.7376, and AUDJPY a one-month peak. USDJPY, meanwhile, recouped to near 114.00 from the low 113s. EURUSD consolidated in the mid-1.09s after yesterday’s short-covering rally following above-forecast data out of the Eurozone. In the stock market realm, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.3% for the better, up by over 4% on the week, while the main Chinese indexes are set to make today the fourth consecutive daily gain. Oil prices have continued to consolidate the 30%-plus gains seen from January lows amid signs of an improving supply-demand balance. The PBoC’s cutting of its reserve requirement ratio for big commercial banks on Monday, expectations of more stimulus from the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, and encouraging data in the US this week, coupled with market-satisfyingly confident-but-cautious guidance from Fed policymakers have collectively underpinned the prevailing risk-on sentiment this week. Attention is now on today’s US payrolls report, which is expected to show a decent 190k headline gain.


    Dallas Fed’s Kaplan sounded relatively dovish emphasizing patience on rate hikes and policy accommodation, especially relative to tighter global financial conditions so far this year. That said, he sees resilience in the US economy for 2016 with a 1.9% GDP forecast, once accounting for slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. As a Texas-based policy maker he sees potential ripple effects from weakness in the energy sector, though oil inventories may begin to fall by mid-2017. He also forecasts the jobless rate falling at a slower pace this year, though a low rate is more sustainable given global overcapacity. Kaplan said that inflation as tracked by the Dallas Fed ticked up in January, which bears watching. Markets remain inert ahead of payrolls.


    Yesterday’s US reports revealed disappointments across the factory goods, ISM-NMI, and claims figures that trimmed prospects for both GDP and payrolls, though the pattern of upside surprises in US data over the past week remains intact despite today’s setbacks. The productivity report tracked estimates with welcome Q4 boosts in productivity and output alongside big downward bumps in Q3 and Q4 compensation that allowed a hefty trimming in Q3 and Q4 growth for unit labor costs.


    Talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are on the table potentially in the first half of April, according to a Gulf OPEC delegate, but have not been formally set just yet. The source believes the meeting would likely be held in Doha, or some other Gulf city. A production “freeze” at elevated levels was agreed between the Saudis and Russia, but a wider agreement remains to be hammered out. Oil prices continue to consolidate gains in the meantime.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Employment: February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as improving claims could provide a lift. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the path of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.6 from January. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.1% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.


    Canada Ivey PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to drop to 60.0 in February after jumping to 66.0 in January. The run-up in the January Ivey did not mean sentiment across Canada switched from mild pessimism in December to a level of optimism not seen since February of 2012’s 66.5 reading. Underlying not seasonally adjusted data typically sees big swings over November, December and January that are proving difficult to adjust in the seasonally adjusted series. That was likely again the case this time around.


    Canada Trade: The trade deficit is projected to widen modestly to -C$0.8 bln in January (median -C$1.0 bln) from -C$0.6 bln in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. Imports are expected to rise 1.0% in January after the 1.6% bounce in December. Oil prices are a key risk, having plunged in January, which should weigh on import and export values.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #13
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    Date : 8th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    Fed governor Brainard noted some pick-up in inflation, in her comments on CNBC, with the core PCE rising to a 1.7% y/y pace in January. But that’s only one data point, she stressed, and she wants to see a pattern of increases moving toward the 2% target. Core inflation has also remained stubbornly low. She believes there’s reason for price pressures to build, especially if oil prices stabilize, upward pressures on the dollar abate, and the firming economy boosts demand. But she also sees troubling signs that inflation has moved lower of late, as she noted various downside risks to growth from abroad. She abstained from giving signs on the timing of a hike, but emphasized the two Fed mandates of growth and stable prices, and noted that there hasn’t been much progress on the latter. That suggests she won’t vote for a hike next week, or in the near future. He comments were consistent with prior remarks.


    Fischer: the Fed would prefer not to use negative rates, he said in Q&A. The FOMC has been looking at what other countries have been doing, in terms of employing various policy tools, and he noted that negative rates have worked somewhat better than expected. Additionally, it seems in his mind it’s a moot point as he indicated the US is not that far away on inflation, and he sees price pressures picking up once oil and the dollar stabilize.


    US consumer credit rose $10.5 bln in January after a revised $21.4 bln surge in December (was $21.3 bln). November’s $14.0 bln increase was nudged up to $14.1 bln. Non-revolving credit remained the leader, climbing $11.6 bln compared to the prior $15.9 bln increase (revised from $15.4 bln). Revolving credit declined $1.1 bln versus the prior $5.5 bln gain (revised from $5.8 bln). It’s the first decline for that component since February 2015.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Final EMU Q4 GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected to be confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but is too backward looking to change the outlook. The focus will be on the breakdown, which is likely to show that domestic demand and consumption remain the mainstay of growth, but investment seems to be also picking up, judging by national data already released.


    BoE Governor Carney Speech: Markets look forward to governor Carney’s speech in order to have clues on the banks future rates policy. We expect the BoE to stave off from hiking rates until Q4 2016 or Q1 2017. Continued disinflationary pressures along with slowing emerging market growth, together with abatement in domestic economic momentum, have been quelling BoE tightening ambitions.


    BoC Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% policy rate. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firming oil and commodity prices and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.


    Canada Housing Starts and Permits: We expect starts, due Tuesday, to improve to a 175.0k unit rate in February (median 182.5k) after the back to back declines in December to 172.5k and January to 165.9k from 212.0k in November.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.




    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst





    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #14
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    Date : 9th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    Stock markets continued to decline during the Asian session. Global growth concerns are once again hitting equity markets. In Europe, the Brexit debate is hanging over the UK and in the Eurozone investors remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, after the disappointment from December. Draghi is fighting a difficult balancing act while a deposit rate cut and a tweaking of the QE program seem almost certain, the question is if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat against resistance from the conservatives at the council. US equities ended yesterday in the red as the energy sector ended down by 4.2% and the financials dropped by 1.62%. News wasn’t particularly stock market friendly with Citi down 2.4% after the CFO forecasted a 15% drop in markets revenues in Q1 and 25% dive in investment banking revenues, along with a $400 mln charge for restructuring.


    Energy Action: The EIA lowered its Brent oil price forecasts, now seeing a 2016 average of $34/bbl from its prior $37 estimate, and $40/bbl in 2017, down from $50. Brent futures are currently trading at $39.88/bbl.


    China bad banks need a lifeline said a NPC delegate according to an article in the WSJ (subscription), in the form of fresh funds to help the resolve rising financial risks and absorb bad assets. The so-called “bad banks” were designated in 1999 to help shoulder $200 bln in bad debts from state lenders and buy bad assets at a discount before restructuring the companies and then selling the assets at a profit. The proposal is aimed at allowing them to go public and expand their asset purchases to help mop up “zombie companies.”


    Canada housing permit values fell 9.8% in January after a revised 7.7% m/m gain (was +11.3%) in December. According to Statistics Canada, the pull-back in total permit values was due to lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in B.C. and Ontario, along with a smaller drag from institutional buildings in Quebec and Alberta. Permit volumes slowed to a 188.4k rate in January from the 217.2k clip in December.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK Industrial Production: Industrial production numbers for January are out today and expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.4% in December. Industrial Production in the UK declined 0.40 percent YoY in December, following a 0.7 percent increase in November. December decline was the first contraction in 28 months and was mainly due to a decrease in manufacturing output.


    US Wholesale Trade: U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: January wholesale trade data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.8% decline for sales with inventories down 0.2% (median -0.2%) for the month. This follows respective December figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would allow the I/S ratio to tick up to 1.33 from 1.32 where it held in both December and November.


    BoC Rate Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% Bank of Canada policy rate in Wednesday’s announcement. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firmer oil and commodity prices relative to January and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #15
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    Date : 10th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    German trade surplus narrows as exports continue to drop. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.8 bln in January, down from EUR 20.3 bln in the previous month. The narrowing reflects a second monthly drop in exports, which fell -0.5% m/m at the start of the year. Imports meanwhile rebounded and rose 1.2% m/m in January, after falling -1.6% m/m in December. This is nominal data that is impacted by oil prices and forex developments, but it confirms the trend of growing imports and slowing export demand, which means the German recovery is for once not export driven, but supported by consumption and lately also investment.


    Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut 25 bps to 2.25%, contrary to widespread expectations for no change. Rate cuts were anticipated this year, just not so soon. Today’s cut was due to a concern over eroding inflation expectations. And more could be in store: Governor Wheeler said “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. A further cut could come as early as next month on April 28.


    China’s CPI accelerated to a 2.3% y/y pace in February from the 1.8% growth rate in January. While that left CPI expanding at the fastest pace since the middle of 2014, the gain was driven by food costs, which spiked higher during the week of Lunar New Year holidays. Colder weather also lifted food prices. Hence, the pick-up in the CPI growth rate should prove temporary. Underlying inflation remains tame, leaving ample leeway for the government to implement further monetary and fiscal stimulus this year. The PPI fell 4.9% y/y in February after the 5.3% drop in January, leaving the 48th consecutive decline.


    There weren’t any real surprises from the Bank of Canada, as it left its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The key take-away from January, that risks to the inflation profile remained largely balanced, was repeated. Though the general tone of the announcement might have been a little more upbeat, there was still plenty of caution noted given downside global risks. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX was the global outperformer (excluding Italy), rising almost 0.7%, doubling the gain on Wall Street, thanks to its heavy weighting in oil and commodities.


    Main Macro Events Today


    ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB is widely expected to ease policy again today when updated set of staff projections will likely bring downward revisions to growth and inflation projections. A deposit rate cut of at least 10 bps together with the introduction of a tiered system to soften the impact is widely priced in. The ECB is also widely expected to widen monthly QE purchases but without a very large deposit rate cut or a change in the pool of assets, Draghi will eventually run into supply constraints, with German bonds the bottle neck the ECB has to funnel its monthly QE spending through unless the ECB abandons the rule of purchasing paper in line with the policy key. That, however, could be interpreted as outright state financing, and such a decoupling or too “exotic” moves could bring Draghi further into conflict with the Bundesbank, but refraining from radical steps risks disappointing markets.


    US Jobless Claims: Weekly US Jobless Claims (expectations 270k) and Continuing Jobless claims (expectations 2,218K) have been following a volatile downward trajectory since early October of last year. Weaker than expected data will add to the slowing path of rate hikes, better than expected will add to the NFP figures from last Friday and increase speculation regarding a move by the FED next week.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #16
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    Date : 11th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    ECB’s policy “bazooka” backfired at least yesterday, where a buffet of easing steps were at first embraced then later spurned by the markets. For a while it seemed like Draghi had found his magic touch again. By burying a rather modest deposit rate cut in a broad package of other stimulus package, including a new corporate bond purchase program, he managed to keep markets happy, bring in spreads and give stock markets a boost, but only for an hour or so. Peripheral government bonds, stressed banks and corporate bonds were the main beneficiaries. In the long run though Draghi’s eagerness to shield highly indebted countries and banks struggling with non-performing loans may come back to haunt the ECB and the Eurozone. It would appear Draghi did too good a job of signaling the moves in advance, which were clearly priced in, then followed by rapid unwinding on-the-fact. He also managed to confuse markets while he initially managed to bury the modest deposit rate cut in a host of other measures and implicit easing bias. He undid most of the good work by remarking that he doesn’t expect it to be necessary to cut rates again. Given the ECB’s track record, the only thing that means is that there won’t be another cut at the next meeting, and we would expect markets to settle down again today as the details of the stimulus package sink in. Today’s CPI number release from Germany won’t change the picture either as numbers were in line with expectations and mostly unchanged.


    Japanese business sentiment deteriorated abruptly in the first quarter, the BSI Manufacturing Index indicated today. Financial market turmoil and slow demand globally had impacted negatively Japan’s flimsy economic recovery. The data pressures the policymakers to deploy extra stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is bordering on yet another recession. BSI Index measuring sentiment at large manufacturers came in at -7.9 in January-March, swinging from 3.8 in Q4 2015. BSI index is a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.


    OPEC, Non-OPEC meeting unlikely to happen on March 20 as previously scheduled, as Iran has yet to agree to the oil production freeze, according to sources cited on Reuters earlier. That sure could explain the reversal in NYMEX crude into the red by -1.9% and back below $38 bbl to the $37.50 area.


    Canada’s erosion in Q4 capacity use was not a surprise, as the drop to 81.1% in Capacity Utilization Rate fit with the already revealed slowing in real Q4 GDP growth to an 0.8% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.4% growth rate in Q3. Revisions were substantial in today’s report, but the pattern in 2015 remained intact: The post-recession Q4 2014 near term peak use rate was revised to 82.8% (was 83.3%), falling to 81.9% in Q1 (was 82.5%) and 80.5% in Q2 (was 81.4%) before rising to 81.6% in Q3 (was 82.0%).


    Main Macro Events Today


    Canada Employment numbers: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in February (median same at +10.0k) after the 5.7k drop in January. The year started out in a mess, with crude oil prices plunging and global growth worries intensifying. Against that backdrop, total jobs dipped. A less dire backdrop of firmer oil prices and markets that were not melting down is expected to lead to some optimism, lifting employment in February. But the resource and manufacturing sectors remained a drag, which may leave another disappointing report.


    Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Trends in rig counts are significant clues for market participants in the oil and gas sector as they reveal the supply dynamics in the sector. Rig counts are reported week on Fridays. On March 7th the company announced that the international rig count for February 2016 was 1,018, down 27 from the 1,045 counted in January 2016, and down 257 from the 1,275 counted in February 2015. The worldwide rig count for February 2016 was 1,761, down 130 from the 1,891 counted in January 2016, and down 1,225 from the 2,986 counted in February 2015.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #17
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    Date : 15th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    The improvement in stocks has run out of steam, which should keep bond futures supported. Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down, stock futures in the UK and the US are also heading south, after the BoJ kept policy on hold, while offering a somewhat bleaker picture of the economy and highlighting that inflation expectations are weakening. The door to further easing remains open then, but the BoJ’s decision to stay pat for now, is likely to be mirrored by other central banks this week. The Fed starts its two day meeting today and SNB and BoE will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, with policy expected to be kept on hold, leaving the focus on statements.


    RBA – Upbeat on jobs but does not rule out rate cut. The Minutes from the last RBA meeting show that it does not rule out another rate cut. Employment has stalled in January, following a very strong end to 2015. “Nevertheless, conditions in the labour market had clearly improved since early 2015,” the RBA said. “Leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead. “But the central bank said low inflation will allow it to cut the cash rate if jobs growth flattens out or the global economy goes into meltdown. “Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” the minutes said.


    BoJ kept policy on hold, but signalled an implicit easing bias, by painting a bleaker picture of the economy and warning that inflation expectations are falling. The bank also announced that it will exempt around USD 90 bln in money-reserve funds (MRFs) – short term funds – from negative rates, after warnings that investment money would be driven into bank deposits. The pledge to increase base money at an annual rate of JPY 80 trillion was left in place. The BoJ said that while “Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend”, the pick up in exports, which was still seen in January, has paused, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging market economies. At the same time it said inflation expectations weakened recently. So the door to further easing is left open.


    ECB ups pressure on governments to implement structural reforms. Bank of France head Villeroy stressed that monetary policy alone cannot revive the economy and said France needs reforms to boost conference. ECB’s Rimsevics also said that monetary policy can only buy time and that politicians need to act on reforms. Hardly anything new, but with the ECB effectively removing market pressure on governments Draghi finds that verbal pressure alone is a blunt tool.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US PPI: February PPI is expected to decline by 0.3% (median -0.2%) in its Tuesday release with the core figure down -0.1% (median -0.2%). This compares to January figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.4%. Data in line with our forecasts would result in a flat y/y headline with a 1.1% y/y pace of growth for the core. Oil price declines have tapered off but are still likely to weigh on the release.


    US Retail Sales: February retail sales data is out on Tuesday and the headline should decline 0.2% (median -0.1% with the ex-autos figure down 0.3% ( median -0.2%) for the month. This follows January figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.1% for the ex-autos figure.


    US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: The March Empire State Index is out Tuesday and should reveal a headline increase to -12.0 (median -12.0) from -16.6 in February and -19.4 in January. Producer sentiment was strong over the course of the fall but weakened into the new year. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures of sentiment to hold at 49 for a third month.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #18
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    Date : 17th MARCH 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MARCH 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside Japan moved higher overnight, following on from gains in the U.S. after the FOMC trimmed its dot plot to imply just two tightening’s in 2016, which aligns the Fed’s view with the market. Japanese markets were weighed down by renewed strength in the Yen, following the dovish Fed statement. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and oil prices are starting to eye USD 39 per barrel. So good leads for European stock markets, but also bond futures and with the Fed statement out of the way the focus shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today.


    Fed Trims Dots and Remains Cautious: The FOMC statement reflects ongoing caution on global economic and financial developments, though optimism was maintained on the domestic front, and especially with regard to the labor market. The Fed also raised the profile of inflation, which “picked up” but remains shy of its target. The Fed’s mostly downward forecast revisions for the dot-plot and GDP, along with steadier inflation and job outlooks, left the markets taking a dovish cue from the proceedings, though Yellen left open the door for a move as early as April. She also the Fed is “not activity debating or considering negative rates,” or looking into other methods of accommodation. The Fed still has a range of tools it can use if it finds itself back in that situation of needing to add more stimulus. The adoption and impact of negative rates by other central banks is being studied.


    UK Chancellor Osborne announced GBP 3.5 bln in spending cuts as he presents the government’s 2016-17 budget. He said that cuts would be implemented towards the end of the current parliament, in 2019-20. On the Brexit issue, he argued that the UK is “better off” inside a “reformed” EU and that the official UK growth forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility were based on the country remaining within the union. UK growth was revised down to 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.4% forecast in November, and 2.2% in 2017, down from 2.5% previously envisaged. He quoted the OBR’s view that leaving the EU would “usher in an extended period of uncertainty.”


    CPI better than expected. The 0.168% February US. CPI drop was upstaged by a sturdy 0.283% core price rise, as the expected 6.0% energy price drop and 0.2% food price rise accompanied hefty gains of 1.6% for apparel prices that extended a 0.6% January rise, a second consecutive 0.5% rise for medical care service prices, and a 0.3% rise for owners’ equivalent rent after four consecutive 0.2% increases. We saw 0.2% gains for new vehicle and tobacco prices.


    Main Macro Events Today


    BoE Decision: There is a strong consensus for the BoE to stand pat on policy this week, and we expect the minutes to reveal a unanimous vote to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% (median same). This would make it exactly seven years the repo has been at its historic low. Weakness in the February PMI surveys and the benign inflation backdrop should ensure a dovish-tilted tone in the minutes, though still keeping the door open to an eventual rate hike, which markets are now discounting to be in Q1 next year. It will be interesting to see if there is any mention of “Brexit” risks, which kicked into gear following the PM Cameron’s renegotiated membership terms and consequence setting of a referendum data (June 23).September.


    SNB Decision: The SNB will have eyed the ECB’s move carefully and especially the fact that the deposit rate cut was rather modest and so far the impact on the CHF proved temporary, could allow the Swiss central bank to hold off with another rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. Much will depend on developments in forex markets and even if rates are on hold this week, the SNB has shown before that it can always act at short notice and outside its quarterly policy meetings.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst





    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #19
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    Date : 05th April 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620.


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI.


    Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation.


    US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36).


    Main Macro Events Today


    U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM
    The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior.


    Eurozone Services PMI
    The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2.




    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #20
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    Date : 6th April 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th APRIL 2016.



    Main Macro Events This Week





    FX News Today


    German Feb industrial production drops less than feared: Production correcting just 0.5% m/m from the rise in January, against expectations for a drop of around -2.0% m/m. Still, the January number was revised sharply down to 2.3% m/m from 3.3% m/m reported initially and the annual rate fell back in February. Together with the weaker than expected orders readings and mixed confidence data the outlook is for slowing growth in overall production and a general weakening of the growth trajectory as the improvement on the labour market peters out and the refugee crisis weighs on consumer confidence.


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed with Japan underperforming as a third consecutive dip in the leading indicator and a stronger Yen weighed on markets. Elsewhere stock markets started to stabilize and the front end Nymex futures climbed toward USD 37 per barrel. The EUR weakened, but remains clearly above 1.130 against the dollar. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -1.7% in March, a slight uptick from the -2.0% y/y in February. Still to come, there is central bank speak from the ECB and the Riksbank and Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway sell bonds, while Greece issues bills amid fresh Grexit concerns.


    US ISM-NMI March increased to 54.5: This was from a 53.4 two-year low that beat estimates and capped a four-month drop from a solid 58.3 as recently as October, versus a 59.6 ten-year high last July. The ISM-adjusted measure rose to 54.1 from 53.2 in February and a 53.1 two-year low in January, versus a 59.0 ten-year high last July. The ISM-NMI figures remain stronger than the factory sentiment readings likely because the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power via lower gasoline prices, while the factory sector faces headwinds from an inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, restraint in the vehicle assembly rate, and a petro-sector recession. Given March strength in the factory sentiment figures, the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys popped to a surprisingly solid 53 in March from 49 in both January and February and 50 over the last four months of 2015, leaving the strongest average since the 53 figure in June and July of last year.


    US JOLTS report showed job openings fell 159k: 5,445k openings in February versus a revised 323k January gain to 5,604k (was 5,541k), though the January level was the 3rd highest of this cycle. The rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Hiring rebounded 297k to 5,422k after diving 276k in January to 5,125k (revised from 5,029k). The rate rose to 3.8% versus 3.6% previously. Quitters increased 99k to 2,950k following the prior 237k decline to 2,851k (revised from 2,804k). The quit rate also rose to 2.1% from 2.0%.


    Main Macro Events Today


    FOMC Minutes
    The minutes to the March 17, 18 Fed meeting will be interesting for clues on the various outlooks of the Committee. However, Yellen’s dovish stance has usurped a lot of the importance of the minutes. Also, other Fedspeakers since the mid-March meeting have also let their feelings known, with even the more dovish members supporting expectations for 2 rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, data has revealed a slower Q1 economy, with our 2016 growth forecast now just 0.7%, with the Atlanta Fed at 0.4%. We know that in March, policymakers were contending with many uncertain and conflicting signals, as well as geopolitical concerns. Those factors left the FOMC on the sidelines, as they punted into Q2, although the economic projections for the year, along with inflation forecasts, were trimmed. Look for the minutes to largely underscore the various uncertainties domestically and around the world as the central reason for the unchanged policy stance.


    ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingThe Non-Monetary policy’s ECB meeting is this morning in Frankfurt. This is a monthly meeting and involves all 25 members of the governing council.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 
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