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  1. #71
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    Date : 31st October 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st OCTOBER 2016.






    FX News Today


    FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.


    United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders. The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.


    The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates. This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.


    Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.


    Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.


    UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.


    China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).


    Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.


    Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.








    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:47 AM.

  2. #72
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    Date : 1st November 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets fluctuating and closed with slight gains after the BoJ left rates unchanged, but lowered the inflation outlook. The Hang Seng is outperforming and mainland Chinese markets are also underpinned, after the official manufacturing PMI improved. The ASX underperformed as AUD strengthened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is just above USD 47 per barrel and clearly down from recent highs, amid the lack of an OPEC output deal. In Europe trade is likely to be quieter than usual, with a public holiday in some European countries, including parts of Germany. This will delay the release of final EMU manufacturing PMI numbers until tomorrow, while Switzerland and the U.K. will publish manufacturing PMI data today.


    The BoJ left policy unchanged following the conclusion of its latest policy meeting, as had been widely expected. This left the interest rate at -0.1% and QQE unchanged at Y80 tln per year. The central bank also pushed back, once again, the time when it expects inflation to reach the 2% target, now projecting this to happen “around fiscal 2018.” Previously the BoJ had forecast inflation returning to target by the end of fiscal 2017, which ends in March 2018. The ellusive target was first introduced in 2013. Headline core CPI fell to -0.5% y/y in October, while the so-called “core-core” CPI figure was flat y/y, a three-year low and highlighting sluggish consumer demand. The central bank also trimmed its inflation forecasts today, now seeing core CPI at 1.5% in 2017 versus 1.7% previously. On the economy, the BoJ said that the economy would continue to expand moderately, but noted that households haven’t been spending increased income and that the risks to the outlook were skewed to the downside.


    FX Update: The Aussie dollar was the standout performing, rallying on the RBA’s decision to leave policy unchanged. AUD-USD and AUD-JPY are registering the biggest movement out of the currencies we track, showing respective gains of 0.7% and 0.8% into the London interbank open. Australia’s weak core inflation data had fed some speculation that the RBA might have opted to make a third rate cut of the year. But the antipodean central bank stood pat and Governor Lowe’s statement was upbeat in outlook, noting that “over the next year, the economy is forecast to grow at close to its potential rate before gradually strengthening” with inflation “expected to pick up gradually over the next two years.” AUDUSD clocked a six-day high at 0.7688 while AUDJPY broke into three-month high terrain. Stronger than expected October manufacturing PMI surveys out of China, with the Caixin version reaching its best level since August 2011, also lifted the Aussie. Elsewhere, currencies generally saw narrow ranges. Cable consolidated gains seen into the London close yesterday, holding around 1.2220-30. EURUSD continued to narrowly orbit the 1.0950 level. USDJPY popped moderately higher after the expected decision by the BoJ to leave policy unchanged with the central bank lowering CPI forecasts and yet again pushing back the time it expects the 2% target to be reached.


    US Data reports: Mixed. We saw a moderate 0.3% September personal income gain, but with a solid 0.5% consumption rise, alongside divergent October swings for the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed that left both measures below prior estimates. We saw a Chicago PMI drop to a 5-month low of 50.6 from 54.2, and a rise for the Dallas Fed to a still-negative -1.5 in October from -3.7. We saw an ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed drop to 49.6 from 51.2 in October and 50.7 in September.


    Carney to stay and extra 12 months: BoE’s Carney will stay on another year, taking his term beyond the expected Article 50 process in order to help secure an orderly transition. This followed a meeting yesterday with PM May, the UK Finance Minister Hammond says he’s “very pleased” to hear that Carney intends to stay until the end of June 2019.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US manufacturing ISM – The October ISM should reveal a headline increase to 51.7 from 51.5 in September and 49.4 in August. Already released measures of sentiment for October have revealed headline declines. More broadly we expect sentiment to improve in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures climbing to 51 after two months at 50 as inventory headwinds dissipate and the mining sector rebounds.


    Canada GDP – Expectations are for a 0.2% rise in September GDP. The modest gain would follow the back to back surges in August (+0.5%) and July (+0.6%), as the economy, or more specifically oil sands production in the Fort McMurray region, rebounded from the wildfires that shuttered production in May (when GDP fell 0.6%). The energy sector saw continued growth in September, as export volumes grew and higher volumes boosted manufacturing production.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:47 AM.

  3. #73
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    Date : 1st December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: A jump in oil prices following yesterday’s OPEC deal on output cuts and a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading out of China underpinned broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight. The front end WTI future cleared the USD 50 per barrel mark, but while the oil price induced rally already helped European markets to post gains Wednesday, it seems to be running out of steam with U.S. stock futures down on the day in tandem with U.K. stock futures. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism seems to be adding to concerns. The rise in oil prices should keep upward pressure on yields, although if equities head south again, we could see futures regaining some of yesterday’s losses. Italian markets will remain in focus as the referendum on constitutional reforms draws nearer. The European calendar has the final reading for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment numbers and the U.K. manufacturing PMI for November.


    US Reports Yesterday: Very solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, we saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% “real” gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. We saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. We lifted our consumption estimates, though we still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though we saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. We saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. We expect a 190k rise in November payrolls tomorrow.


    Canada’s Growth Ticks Up: Canada’s 3.5% GDP rebound in Q3 was accompanied by the anticipated bounce back in energy production, but was joined by acceleration in the pace of consumption spending, a surge in investment on non-residential structures and a positive contribution from inventories. A 0.3% gain in September GDP left a strong hand-off to Q4. The reports also imparted a mildly positive tilt to the outlook for 2016 and 2017 growth, adding to the case for no change from the Bank of Canada at the December announcement.


    Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Mester said the “devil will be in the details” in terms of fiscal, trade and immigration policies of the next administration with respect to inflation and employment, but raising rates would be a prudent step for the Fed as postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability. She feels the Fed meanwhile “is not behind the curve.” Mester has been a hawkish dissenter against policy status quo and has been arguing for pre-emptive rate hikes for a while, so this won’t come as a surprise. Fed Governor Powell; communications should downplay the timing of rate moves, he said in prepared remarks at an “Understanding Fedspeak” event. Focusing on the potential timing of changes can lead to confusion. Rather, communications should emphasize the uncertainty over forecasts. On the dot plot, he noted that while changes in the plot might reveal changes in views on the policy path, it’s not a useful predictor of near term rate action. In conclusion, he said policymakers communicate a lot more these days; some of the comments are designed to express the consensus, while some is designed to show the diversity of views.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US ISM Manufacturing PMI – The October ISM is expected to rise to 52.5 from 51.9 in October. Forecast risk: upward, given strong components in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 59.9 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008.


    Canada 3Q GDP – Real Q3 GDP is expected to rebound 3.4% in the report due today after the 1.6% drop in Q2. A bounce-back in real net exports is seen driving the pick-up. Consumption growth is seen slowing, while M&E investment should manage another small gain. Inventories are the usual wildcard, projected to modestly subtract from GDP. Meanwhile, September GDP by industry is seen up 0.1% m/m, leaving a tepid hand-off to Q4. Moreover, the Q3 surge will be driven by a return to production and activity in the Forth McMurray region after the wildfire temporarily halted production in Q2.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:47 AM.

  4. #74
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    Date : 5th December 2016.


    THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD.






    Main Macro Events This Week


    United States: The November services data, along with trade and sentiment data will headline a thin economic slate. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Monday) is projected to rise to 55.5 after falling 2.3 points to 54.8 in October. The Markit services PMI is also slated (Monday). The October international trade report (Tuesday) is seen posting a wider $42.4 bln deficit. The December preliminary consumer sentiment release (Friday) should show an increase to 94.5 after popping up to 93.8 in November, further reflecting Trump enthusiasm. Productivity growth (Tuesday) is forecast to be unchanged at a 3.1% pace, while unit labor costs hold at 0.3%. The October JOLTS data (Wednesday) would typically be important, as it’s a Yellen favorite, but with the Fed a done deal next week, it will be overlooked. The quarterly QSS release (Thursday) will be of some importance for the GDP outlook as it’s an update on the service sector. Other data this week includes the Fed’s November Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) (Monday), October factory orders (Tuesday), October consumer credit (Wednesday), initial jobless claims (Thursday), and October wholesale trade. Fedspeak will be compressed to Monday this week heading into the Fed’s blackout window for the December 14 FOMC decision. On Saturday, NY Fed dove Dudley confined his remarks to regulation. He will be back up again on Monday discussing the macroeconomic outlook. Chicago Fed dove Evans will speak on the current economic outlook and policy. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard will discuss the economy and policy as well.


    Canada: the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the focus. No change in the current 0.50% rate setting is expected but a tempering of the easing bias is possible. Projections are also for no change in rates through next year. Data is headlined by the October trade report (Tuesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.0 bln from -C$4.1 bln. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is projected to be nearly steady at 60.0 in November from 59.7 in October. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen slipping to 190.0k in November from 192.9k in October. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to decline 1.0% in October after tumbling 7.0% in September. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is projected to rebound to 81.5% in Q3 as the economy recovered, following the plunge to 80.0% in Q2 that was driven by the Alberta-wildfire-related pull-back in GDP. Capacity utilization was 81.4% in Q1. The October new housing price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in October after the matching 0.2% increase in September


    Europe: The ECB is the focus this week. The Bank not only has to deal with the immediate fallout from the Italian referendum, but most importantly, it will be deciding on the future of the QE program, which currently runs out in March. News sources suggested that many on the Committee favor another 6-month extension at current levels. The calendar will play a secondary role, although German manufacturing order numbers (Tuesday) will be interesting and are likely to be watched closely by central bankers. Similarly, industrial production for October (Wednesday) is expected to rebound 0.9% m/m after falling -1.8% m/m in September. Data broadly in line with expectations would confirm what confidence indicators already suggested, that growth is likely to pick up again in the last quarter of the year. The same holds for Eurozone October retail sales (Monday), which are seen at 0.8% m/m.


    The November Services PMI (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at 55.0. And, against these up-to-date numbers, the third release of Eurozone Q3 GDP (Tuesday) will be rather backward looking. The data calendar also has German trade numbers (Friday) and French production data Friday).


    UK: Sterling closed out last week on strong footing with an average 0.6% advance versus the G3 currencies on the day and an average gain of 1.6% on the week. The calendar includes an expected ruling by the Supreme Court on Thursday on the government’s challenge to the issue of whether it has to put the decision to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before parliament. Data include the November services PMI (Monday), which is expected to ebb to a headline reading of 54.2) after October’s 54.5. Like the manufacturing and construction PMIs have already shown, the November PMI should reveal a spike in cost pressures as the consequence of sterling’s weakness post-Brexit vote start to bite. Production data for October is also up (Wednesday), where we see scope for a rebound in the industrial output figure, to +0.2% m/m after September’s 0.4% m/m contraction. Trade data and various house price indicators are also out, none of which is expected to move markets.


    China: The November trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to $45.0 bln from $49.1 bln in October. Friday brings November CPI and PPI, where the former is seen warming to 2.3% y/y from 2.1%, and the latter expected at 2.5% y/y from 1.2%.


    Japan: The October current account surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1,600.0 bln from 1,821.0 bln in September. November bank loan data are also due Thursday. The Q4 MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is expected to fall to 2.0 from 2.9 in November.


    Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight. No change to the current 1.50% rate setting is the expected outcome. The bank cut rates in May and August to counter a firming AUD. The slate of economic data is highlighted by Q3 GDP (Wednesday), projected to expand 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q2. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$14.5 bln after the -A$15.5 bln shortfall in Q2. The trade deficit (Thursday) is anticipated at -A$1.0 bln in October from -A$1.2 bln in September. Housing finance (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% in October after the 1.6% run-up in September.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:46 AM.

  5. #75
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 6th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to move mostly higher, after gains in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday. The Italian MIB closed with slight losses Monday, but it seems investors quickly got over the widely expected rejection of Italy’s constitutional reform and Renzi’s resignation. Italy may once again have to look for a new government, but that is hardly anything new in a country where it is extremely rare for a government to last full term Italy is hardly heading for an exit from the EU, even if EMU membership is under scrutiny in some quarters, but the problems of Italy’s banks will likely come back to the forefront and keep pressure on Italian markets, which actually managed to outperform in the last week ahead of the referendum. Still, U.S. and European stock futures are heading south this morning, and oil prices are down. The European calendar has German factory orders at the start of the session, which are expected to rebound from the contraction in September. There is also the final and detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP and Swiss inflation data. Already released overnight, U.K. BRC like for like retail sales came in weaker than expected.


    RBA Rates left unchanged: Cash rates remain on hold at 1.5% as expected. “Rising AUD could complicate economic transition” Steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets, global economy growing at a slower rate but Chinese economy has “Steadied”. Large supply of apartments to hit housing market (where prices are rising “briskly”) in the next few years. Global inflation more balanced than for “some time”. Labour market conditions have improved and commodity prices have risen. However, outlook for inflation remains “low for some time”. AUD unchanged following announcement and statement. RBA next meet February 8.


    US Reports Yesterday: The U.S. ISM-NMI bounce to a 1-year high of 57.2 from 54.8 in October, but a similar 57.1 in September, left the measure much closer to the 10-year high of 59.6 in July of 2015 than the 6-year low of 51.4 in August. The ISM-adjusted ISM-NMI bounced less sharply, to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, versus an 8-month high of 56.3 in June, a 10-year high of 59.0 in July of 2015, and a 6-year low of 50.7 in August. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys surged to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. The employment gauge surged to a 1-year high of 58.2 from 53.1.


    FedSpeak: St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard: new tax, fiscal and regulatory policies in Washington could make the U.S. a higher-speed economy if they improve productivity. But any such policy changes should not be viewed as needed stimulus since the economy is not in recession. The impact on current low-growth, low interest rate regime depends on proper execution and focus on productivity improvements. Absent such changes, he’s still sticking with his one-rate-hike-only call to reach neutral policy, which is appropriate since inflation and unemployment are close to target. But this appears to give him an exit strategy if the fiscal outlook changes significantly. Dudley of NY Fed on CNBC: it’s premature to take on board market views of fiscal expansion, he said, but if fiscal policy got more expansive, the Fed would probably remove accommodation more quickly. But it depends on the specifics of any fiscal stimulus, which is as yet unknown. He’s essentially echoing his earlier speech on the economic outlook and he’s generally pleased that there has been an uptick in wages and inflation, which was the goal. Dudley notes that there will be lags in implementing any fiscal legislation, however, and any Fed policy adjustments as a result will be out over the horizon. Overall, he sees “downside risks to the economy reduced.” Dodd-Frank is not perfect, so changes are appropriate, but essential ingredients on capital requirements, etc. should remain. He also sees the rising dollar as consistent with expectations about growth. He is making a bid for automatic fiscal stabilizers again as well. Evans: we’re on cusp of period of rising rates, said the dovish Chicago Fed president, and he expects inflation to move “more solidly” toward the Fed’s 2% target. He said the state of demand in the U.S. is really quite good, growth should continue and with unemployment at 4.6% you don’t need explicit infrastructure stimulus. Evans echoed Dudley, saying we need to have patience to assess what the new administration’s policies will be, though policies under discussion could reinforce the U.S. growth trajectory. This is more optimistic on the growth front for Evans, therefore slightly more hawkish by implication.


    Main Macro Events Today


    EUR Gross Domestic Product – Year on Year Eurozone area GDP is out later this morning and it is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6% with Month on month GDP also unchanged at 0.3%.


    US Factory Orders – October factory goods data is out later today and should reveal a 2.6 increase for the headline with shipments up 0.3% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective September figures which had orders up 0.7%, sales up 0.9% and inventories up 0.1%. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio unchanged from September’s 1.34.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:45 AM.

  6. #76
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    Date : 12th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2016.






    Global equities continue to charge ahead as the Trump reflation rally brings glad tidings and cheer to investors heading into the holidays. This week’s calendar is highlighted by the long-awaited December FOMC meeting, the last of 2016, and a rate hike should not be a surprise given the rhetorical smoke signals of late and the underpinnings of growth, jobs and even nascent signs of inflation recovering. With the ECB meeting now out of the way, focus in Europe will turn to policy decisions in the UK and Switzerland, where unchanged policy settings are forecast. For Japan the calendar ramps up with PPI, machine orders, Tankan and industrial production, while in China, FDI, production, retail and fixed investment data are due.


    United States: The FOMC decision is the key data release of the week. U.S. import prices are projected to sink 0.4% in November vs +0.5% (Tuesday), while export prices are also seen -0.4% vs +0.2%. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) may continue to feel the strain of rising mortgage rates. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in November vs 0.8%, or 0.7% ex-auto, as rising gasoline prices boost gas station sales. Headline PPI may remain muted at 0.1% in November or 0.2% core. Industrial production is set to dip 0.1% in November, while capacity use may slip slightly to 75.2%. October business inventories are expected to sink 0.2%. CPI kicks off a busy (Thursday), with a headline forecast of 0.3% in November, while the core reading is seen 0.2% higher for a 2.1% y/y gain. The Philly Fed index may rise to 9.0 in December from 7.6, while the Empire State index is forecast to jump to 4.0 in December from 1.5. Also on tap is the Q3 current account deficit, projected to narrow to -$112.1 bln from -$119.9 bln. Initial jobless claims may slip 8k to 250k for the week ending December 10 and the NAHB housing market index is expected to hold steady at 63 in December. The week wraps up with housing starts (Friday) seen retreating 6.3% to a 1,240k unit pace in November after the 25.5% surge to 1,323k in October.


    The markets are fully priced for a rate hike Wednesday. So, key for price action will be what’s inferred for the 2017 trajectory in the policy statement, and more importantly in the forecasts. FOMC forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal boosts in the PCE chain price forecasts for 2016, downward 2016 jobless rate revisions, and a narrowing in 2016 GDP.


    Canada: Highlights are on Thursday, when the October manufacturing survey and the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review (FSR) are released. Manufacturing is expected to improve 0.5% in October after the 0.3% gain in September. The FSR, which is published twice a year, will be followed by a press conference with Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. The Q3 national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report is due Wednesday, which will provide a key measure of household leverage. Housing data is also due, with the Teranet/National HPI for November scheduled for Wednesday and the November existing homes sales report is due out Thursday.


    Europe: With the ECB announcement out of the way and effectively setting policy parameters for the whole of 2017, by extending the QE program through to December next year, data releases won’t change the overall outlook. The data calendar has the German December ZEW reading, which we expect to have picked up again following Draghi’s early Christmas present and expectations are for a rise in the future expectations index to 14.3 from 13.8 in the previous month. The rest of the calendar focuses on final November inflation data with the German reading expected to be confirmed at 0.7% y/y, the French also at 0.7% y/y, the Spanish at 0.5% y/y, the Italian at 0.1% y/y and the overall Eurozone number at 0.6% y/y. Inflation is ticking higher, but not sufficiently apparently for the ECB. Eurozone production data for October meanwhile could correct again after weaker than expected German and French data and the Eurozone trade surplus is expected to ease slightly. Events include an EU leaders summit, with Brexit strategy discussions likely to be high on the agenda, but unlikely to be discussed much publicly, as the official line remains the same as before the U.K.’s referendum.


    UK: Signs, via give-away remarks from government ministers and leaks, have suggested that the UK government is steering the economy to a soft Brexit. ary Policy Committee meets for the final time in 2016 (announcing Thursday), where unanimous decisions to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and the QE total at GBP 435 bln, is widely anticipated, coupled with a tone in the minutes that reaffirms the neutral stance that was established last month. The data calendar is headlined by inflation data for November (Tuesday), where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to a cycle high of 1.1% , which would more than reverse the unexpected dip in October to 0.9% (from September’s 1.0% rate). Monthly labour market data, covering October and November, is also up (Wednesday), where we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8% y/y in October, while the more timely jobless claimant count is seen rising 5k, which would build on the 9.8k rise seen in the month prior. Official retail sales for November (Thursday) has us anticipating a modest 0.2% m/m expansion, which would follow the solid, weather-influenced 1.9% m/m rise in October.


    China: November industrial production (Tuesday) is expected little changed at 6.0% y/y from 6.1% in October, while November retail sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 10.2% y/y from 10.0% previously. November fixed investment (Tuesday) is predicted at 8.2% y/y from 8.3%.


    Japan: Quiet week for data. The BoJ’s December Tankan index (Wednesday) should see the large manufacturer’s component improve to 8 from 6 and the large non-manufacturers component at 20 from 18. Revised October industrial production is also due Wednesday.


    Australia: The calendar features November employment (Thursday), expected to rise 15.0k after the 10.9k gain in October. The unemployment rate is at 5.6% in November, matching the 5.6% reading seen in October. The Q3 house price index is due Tuesday. There is no Reserve Bank of Australia speaker this week. The minutes to the December meeting (December 20) are the next event of note from the bank.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:46 AM.

  7. #77
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    Date : 13th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan outperforming (closed up 0.5% at 19,250) as the Yen fell ahead of the FOMC announcement. The ASX closed down, and Chinese bourses managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses, but the Hang Seng is also slightly in the red and funding concerns remain. A pick up in China retail sales and industrial production may indicate that there is still momentum in the economy, but pressure on Hong Kong’s money markets continues to build as funding costs rise to the highest level since 2009 as the Fed readies for a rate hike. And the squeeze has started to spill over into markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher though, and the FTSE 100 could claw back some of yesterday’s losses at the open. Oil prices have fallen back from yesterday’s highs and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.63, which could help bond futures to win back some lost ground and help yields to come off highs. The European calendar has German ZEW investor confidence and a host of December inflation data, with the final release from Germany at the start of the session, followed by inflation numbers from Sweden, the U.K. Spain and finally Portugal.


    China data beats: Chinese Retail Sales were particularly strong and came in at 10.8% y/y well ahead of expectations at 10.2%. Industrial Production also beat expectations at 6.2% y/y (6.1%) expected. Both sets of figures suggest a much smoother end to 2016 for the Chinese economy than the first six months. Private investment remains weak, and government stimulus continues to support the economy. The housing market (a main driver of the economy this year and many view as overheating) is showing signs of cooling and therefore slowing potential growth next year.


    German final Nov HICP was confirmed at 0.7% y/y, as expected, with the national rate confirmed at 0.8% y/y. both unchanged from the previous month. The uptrend in annual price declines for energy products was halted in November and prevented a further rise in the headline rate. Prices for household energy dropped -2.9% y/y, versus a decline of -2.3% y/y in the previous month, as declines in prices for gas and heating oil accelerated again. Petrol prices dropped -2.2% y/y, after rising 0.4% y/y in November and excluding household energy and petrol, the annual rate would have risen to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. Clearly there are no signs of deflation risks and with rates excluding energy also far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability, the numbers do seem to back the ECB’s argument that further stimulus is needed, despite gradually improving economic conditions.


    FX Update: The dollar majors have been treading a narrow path. USDJPY has in the lower 115.0s after yesterday clocking a 10-month peak at 116.12, and EURUSD has settled in the low-to-mid 1.06s. Stronger than expected industrial production and retail sales data out of China had limited market impact, and directional ambition was largely absent during Tokyo trading today in forex markets. Wall Street closed mixed, off record highs, and the tone in Asia was generally negative until a PM-session bounce. The oil price rally has also come to pause, and market participants the world over are winding down into tomorrow’s Fed announcement and updated economic projections. A 25 bp rate hike at tomorrow’s announcement is all but certain, while there are no expectations for any major changes to the guidance of gradual tightening.


    Main Macro Events Today


    German ZEW Preview – It is expected to improve on ECB stimulus. A slight rise in German ZEW investor confidence to 14.3 from 13.8 in November after the ECB extended its stimulus package and confirmed that it will remain in the market at the very least until the end of next year and likely into 2018. Some disappointment over the scaled back monthly purchase volumes and the fact that Draghi didn’t opt for the more controversial measures, such as a foray into stock markets, or purchases of bank bonds, together with concerns about the rise of protectionist forces on the world stage may have limited the pick up in confidence, but the strong orders numbers may also go some way to underpin sentiment. As the ECB has effectively set out the policy parameters for next year already data releases at the moment will have less impact than usually, however.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:44 AM.

  8. #78
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    Date : 14th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were trading mixed with all eyes on the Fed and the FOMC announcement today. The Hang Seng managed slight gains helped by gains in China’s two largest energy companies amid reports of a fuel price increase and a pipeline sale. Ther Nikkei 225 close flat at 19,253. U.S. stock futures are also narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is down with investors holding back, which could see European markets give up some of yesterday’s broad gains. Oil prices have fallen back again and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 52.40 per barrel and Gold is up around USD 1162 . The focus on the U.S., where a 25 bp hike is widely expected, will overshadow the European calendar today, which includes U.K. labour market numbers, Eurozone production data as well as final November inflation data from France and Italy.


    The U.S. trade price report revealed only modest November price drop-backs in the face of a soaring dollar, with relative price firmness for exports versus imports as seen throughout 2016 that beat estimates and prompted a downward revision in our November trade deficit forecast to $42.0 bln from $42.5 bln. We saw November trade price drops of 0.3% for imports and just 0.1% for exports, with a 4.7% oil import price decline and a 0.6% food export price rise. Import prices have received a big lift since February from the rebound in oil prices, and ex-oil trade prices received a lift through mid-year from a drop in the dollar between January and April. Yet, the dollar has reversed course since the Brexit and U.S. elections, leaving downward pressure on prices beyond oil price gains that accompany ongoing headwinds from the global growth slowdown, petro-sector dislocation, and the inventory overhang that has reversed course in Q3-Q4.


    Reuters Report: Brexit could hit trade relations between Britain and the U.S, with nearly 40 percent of American firms considering moving their British office to the EU and two-thirds saying the vote is impacting investment choices, according to a survey.Food and beverage, life sciences and financial services firms were most likely to consider relocating whilst aerospace firms were the least likely, the survey by law firm Gowling WLG said.Nearly all the 533 companies surveyed said they would require some third-party support to deal with the transition as Britain leaves the European Union, potentially risking part of the close transatlantic relationship between the two nations. “The strong UK-U.S. trade relationship that has been carefully nurtured over the past fifty years is in serious jeopardy,” said Bernardine Adkins, the firm’s Head of EU, Trade and Competition. Cable trades up this morning at 1.2675 forom overnight lows of 1.2640.


    FX Update: Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far in currency markets as markets hunker down into the Fed’s policy announcement and guidance, which will come with updated economic forecasts from the central bank. EUR-USD drifted about 25 pips, back to around 1.0650, but has remained below yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.0667. USD-JPY dipped under 115.0, moderately lower. Japan’s Q4 Tankan business conditions survey saw the large manufacturers headline lift to 10 from 8 in the last quarter, as expected but nonetheless disappointing as improvement was concentrated only in the petroleum and coal sector. The figure for large service companies was unchanged at 18, slightly below the median forecast. AUD-USD managed to recover modest intraday losses seen after the Westpac Australian consumer confidence gauge fell to a nine-month low in the December survey, which has generally been taken as a bad sign ahead of the Christmas holiday period. The Aussie buck lifted back above 0.7500, leaving a low at 0.7481.


    Main Macro Events Today


    FOMC – The Forecast revisions along with the FOMC statement, should reveal boosts in the PCE Chain price forecasts for 2016, downward 2016 jobless rate revisions , and a narrowing in 2016 GDP 1.8%. For the following year’s growth and inflation prospects are likely to be tweaked upwards. Expectations remain for median forecasts that the FOMC will look for two tightening’s per year with a slightly steeper pace.


    U.S. Retail Sales – November retail sales data is out today and should reveal a 0.4% headline increase with the ex-autos component up 0.5%. This follows respective October figures of 0.8% for both the headlines and ex-autos figure. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside as chain store sales, gasoline prices and construction employment all bode well for November data.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:44 AM.

  9. #79
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    Date : 15th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2016.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, after the FED did the expected and hiked rates by 25 bp. Japanese markets outperform and the Nikkei closed with a slight gain as the Yen dropped while in Hong Kong property shares came under fresh pressure amid rising mortgage costs and punitive taxes. U.K. stock futures are also down, after broad losses on Wall Street yesterday, but U.S. futures are already picking up again. European bond futures, which rose going into the Fed decision, are likely to be knocked back and the Bund futures already headed sharply south in after hour trade yesterday. Oil prices dropped and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 51 per barrel. Gold collapsed to under USD 1144 following the “3 next year” comments. In Europe the data calendar is pretty empty and policy announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank are not expected to hold major surprises, with all central banks seen on hold. The BoE is likely to reaffirm its neutral stance, while the SNB will repeat again that it remains ready to intervene on forex markets if needed, as the Franc remains overvalued. EU leaders start gathering for the last summit of 2016 today with upcoming Brexit talks likely high on the agenda.


    FOMC Delivered on First and Last Hike of 2016: The Fed finally delivered on its threat to boost the Fed funds target range to 0.50-0.75%, narrowly slipping in the second hike of the lost decade with two weeks left to go before year-end. While entirely discounted by the markets given well-placed and consistent smoke signals from the Fed, it also stretched its “dot plot” forecasts to include three more hikes in 2017. The statement noted the “decline” in the jobless rate and a “considerable” uptick in inflation compensation as well.


    Australia employment surged 39.1k in November, much stronger than expected, after a revised 15.2k gain in October (was +9.8k). It was the largest one month gain this year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6%. Full time jobs jumped 39.3k after a 41.5k gain. Part time employment was nearly flat (-0.2k) following the 30.5k drop in October. The participation rate picked-up to 64.6% from 64.4%. This is a strong report that underpins expectations for no change from the RBA for an extended period.


    The U.S. Data Yesterday: Revealed a surprisingly weak round of Q4 retail sales figures that trimmed Q4 GDP estimates to 1.3% from 1.8%, following an assumed Q3 boost to 3.4% from 3.2%. We also saw a weaker than expected November industrial production report thanks to a huge weather-induced utility decline over the past three months alongside an unexpected November vehicle assembly rate drop. The October business inventory figures tracked assumptions, though these figures combined with the weak November sales and factory data suggest that the inventory reversal is proving slow to materialize. The November PPI figures bucked the day’s pattern of weak reports, with 0.4% headline and core-price gains that reflected strength in service prices alongside the expected pause in the energy price climb.


    Main Macro Events Today


    BOE Preview – The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee met for the final time in 2016 and an unanimous decisions to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and the QE total at GBP 435 bln, is widely anticipated. The minutes are expected to reaffirm the neutral stance that was established last month.


    SNB Preview – The SNB’s quarterly policy review is not expected to bring any surprises, with the bank widely expected to keep rates and general policy parameters unchanged. The central bank is almost sure to stress once again that it remains willing and ready to intervene in currency markets to keep the franc from running higher. A foray further into negative interest rate policy also remains in the arsenal, but is unlikely to be applied just yet. This will leave the focus not just on updated growth and inflation projections, but also comments on the domestic side effects of the SNB’s policy and developments on mortgage and property markets as Switzerland enjoys the quiet holiday period, before the political thunderstorms in Europe next year, when Brexit talks are set to start and France, Germany, the Netherlands face key elections, that have the potential to undermine the stability of the EU and EMU.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst




    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by Moderator; 12-16-2016 at 10:44 AM.

  10. #80
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    Date : 19th December 2016.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2016.






    FX News Today


    The recent decisions by the FOMC to tighten policy and the ECB to extend stimulus reflect the widening divergences of monetary policy. And the uncertainties over the macroeconomic outcomes from government and central bank actions, along with geopolitical tensions, will keep the markets choppy ahead. So buckle up for a bumpy ride into the new year.


    United States: The rally on Wall Street took a breather on Friday, especially after news China seized a Navy drone motivated profit taking. The declines were slim, however, with the Dow at 19,843 and looking down the barrel of the psychological 20,000. Traditionally, the final two weeks of the year are very positive for equity markets. Hopes for increased fiscal stimulus and reduced regulations have underpinned a surge in the feel good factor, which have boosted confidence and manufacturing figures for the month. The calendar is back ended and compressed into the end of the week. Thursday’s slate is heavy; Personal income and consumption for November should show respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2%. The PCE chain price index is expected to rise 0.2%, with the core rate up 0.1%. November durable goods orders will also be of interest, though the volatility in the data limit its overall usefulness. The third version of Q3 GDP should show a small upward revision to 3.3% (median 3.3%) from the prior 3.2% pace, and up from 2.9% in the Advance report. The price index should hold at 1.4% (median 1.4%). November existing home sales (Wednesday) and new home sales (Friday) will also be of interest. Existing home sales are expected to edge up 0.4% to a 5.62 mln. New home sales should rebound 2.1% to 575k (median 575k) after October tumbled 1.9% to 563k. The final reading on consumer confidence (Friday) should hold near the 98.0 print (median 98.2) after surging 4.2 to that level in the preliminary reading amid optimism following the Trump election. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) for the week ended December 17, expected to rise 11k to 265k, This week’s survey is important as it coincides with the BLS survey week. Also on tap is the preliminary December Markit services PMI (Monday). It dipped 0.2 points in November to 54.6, though it was the 9th consecutive month of expansion. There is the October FHFA home price index (Thursday). Then it’s the KC Fed manufacturing survey (Thursday).


    Canada: GDP for October (Friday) is expected to improve 0.1% after the 0.3% gain in September. October wholesale trade (Tuesday) is seen rebounding 0.7% m/m in October after the 1.2% drop in September. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to expand 0.5% in October after the 0.6% improvement in September. CPI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip 0.2% in November after the 0.2% gain in October.


    Europe: The ECB effectively confirmed its policy parameters for the whole of 2017 last week. It will be political events, including the start of official Brexit talks, as well as elections in Germany, the Netherlands and France, that will dominate next year. This week’s focus is on the Ifo Business Climate index where expectations are for another marked improvement to 110.8 from 110.4 after the strong orders number and the better than expected manufacturing PMI. There is also likely to be a modest improvement in the flash reading for Eurozone consumer confidence to -6.0 from -6.1, with German GfK consumer confidence to 9.9 from 9.8. Last but not least is the final release of French Q3 GDP, expected to confirm the quarterly growth rate at 0.2%.


    UK: As 2016 draws to a close, the fundamental picture of the UK is looking pretty good, contrary to widespread fears following the June 23 vote to leave the EU. The BoE reaffirmed its neutral policy bias, but warned of a more “fragile” global outlook, highlighting the troubled Italian banking sector and rising debt in China, signaling that the policy rate could “move in either direction” in 2017. Brexit-related uncertainty remains a blot on the landscape. An FT article on Friday reported that Japanese banks have warned the government that they will start downsizing London operations within six months unless there is clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The UK calendar features the CBI distributive sales survey for December (Tuesday), November government borrowing figures (Wednesday), December consumer confidence (Thursday), and the third estimate of the Q3 GDP, which is expected to remain unrevised at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y.


    China: No data releases this week.


    Japan: The BoJ starts its two-day meeting on Monday, and will announce its policy intentions on Tuesday. No changes in policy are expected, with short term rates kept steady a -0.10%, and bond purchases continuing at a JPY 80 tln rate. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at up 0.1% m/m from up 0.2% previously, which was the first positive reading since July.


    Australia: The calendar is empty of top tier data this week. The only event of note is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the November meeting (Tuesday).


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 
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