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  1. #91
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    Date : 5th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher with Japanese markets underperforming as the Dollar weakened in the wake of yesterday’s Fed minutes, and a strengthening Yen weighed on Nikkei and Topix. U.S. stock futures are also down, but U.K. futures are moving higher after a pretty lacklustre session in Europe yesterday. Re-inflation and stronger than expected growth numbers have been a difficult mix for markets this week, and even though the ECB has already re-affirmed its commitment to maintain QE purchases through to the end of the year, concerns that the central bank will be running into supply constraints are resurfacing. The calendar today has U.K. Services PMI, Swiss CPI and Eurozone PPI.


    FOMC Minutes: FOMC minutes showed a gradual approach was appropriate for now. But upside risks were weighed. About half of the Committee included fiscal policy in their forecasts, although “many” stressed the “considerable uncertainty” over the timing, size, and composition of any fiscal stimulus, not to mention the mix of tax, spending, and regulatory changes. “Many” judged a faster pace of hikes might be necessary. As to downside risks, it was noted that trade barriers, dollar appreciation, and weaker than expected fiscal policy measures could limit growth. The minutes reflected more of an uncertain tone than an overly hawkish one.


    Overnight Data: China December Caixin Services PMI: 53.4 (prior 53.1) & Composite 53.5 (priors 52.9) services PIM at 17 month high and the composite is at near 4 year highs. Both manufacturers and services providers see steeper increases in activity, Overall employment declines slightly, due to ongoing job shedding across the manufacturing sector, Input price inflation remains sharp, but companies raise their selling prices at softer pace. AUDUSD ticked up on the news and continued selling pressure on USD at 14 day highs at 07320.


    US Data Yesterday: U.S. vehicle sales are topping expectations in December thanks to a combination of deep incentives and heavy demand for trucks, likely putting overall sales on pace to post record gains in 2016. This equates with a pace of 18.2 mln units (SA), matching the highest level in 7-years. Among the larger gains were by GM at 10% vs 4.4% forecast; Nissan 9.7% vs -2.8% expected and VW at 20.3% vs 5.6%. Fiat Chrysler was the worst performer at -10.0%, but even they beat -14.0% estimated. Analysts had been forecasting a pace of 17.4-17.5 mln units, near last year’s record 17.5 mln. Though consumer confidence is on the rise heading into 2017, inventories are up amid a slow new-model rollout and incentives have been as large as $4k/vehicle in December. Trucks accounted for 64% of year-end volume, pushing the average price up to a record $35,309 for a gain of 1.5% y/y. Rising loan and lease rates are also a potential speed bump.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Non-Manufacturing ISM – December service sector producer sentiment is out today and should reveal a headline decline to 56.8 from 57.2 in November. Overall, producer sentiment in December remained strong with most measures posting increases. The ISM-adjusted average of all measures looks poised to hold at 53 for a second month, up from 51 in October and 50 as recently as September and August.


    US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of December 31 is also out today and should show an improved headline of 260k (median 262k) from 265k the week prior and 275k in the week before that. More broadly, claims are poised to average a still firm 262k in December, up from 252k in November and 258k in October.




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #92
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    Date : 9th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.






    Main Macro Events This Week


    Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising “animal spirits.” The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets’ attention. The question is, was this a one-off gain, or is it a harbinger of a pick-up in wage and price pressures that will push the FOMC into a more aggressive rate hike path? Several Fed voters have already begun to incorporate some Trump stimulus into their projections and are expected to continue to voice that opinion as Republicans are itching to expeditiously move ahead with their pro-business agenda in 2017.


    United States: The back-loaded U.S. economic calendar in the wake of the slightly inflationary December employment report could be a little anti-climactic, but there will be a host of potentially relevant fundamental data with retail sales headlining on Friday. Expectations are for 0.7% increase and 0.5% ex- autos. Prior to that anchor release, consumer credit (Monday), Wholesale sales are projected to rise 0.5% in November (Tuesday). The weekly MBA mortgage and EIA energy inventory reports (Wednesday) are on tap next. Import prices are set to increase 0.8% (Thursday) in December given the rebound in oil prices from long-term depressed levels, after their prior 0.3% drop, while export prices are pegged to sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims should snap back 19k to 254k for the week ended January 7 after their inter-holiday plunge the week prior. With retail sales will come December PPI also due (Friday), Inflation data will be closely monitored after the uptick in earnings/wage growth in December payrolls. Business inventories are forecast to rise 0.7% in November, while preliminary Michigan sentiment may rise to 98.5 in January.


    Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen returns this week on Thursday. Already Saturday Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari took part in a “Too-Big-To-Fail” panel and Governor Powell participated in a panel on “Low Interest Rates and Financial Markets.” Monday has updates from Boston dove Rosengren and Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart. Thursday also brings Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook, Chicago’s Evans on the economy and policy, and St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard on the economy and policy. Harker speaks again on economic mobility on Friday-the-13th.


    Canada: Policy relevant economic data remains front and center on Canada’s calendar in the run-up to the January 18 BoC announcement and Monetary Policy Report. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey is first out of the gate this week (Monday). The slate of housing figures is heavy, with housing starts (Tuesday), building permits (Tuesday), the new home price index for November (Thursday), December Teranet/National HPI (Thursday) and December existing home sales (Friday) all due.


    Europe: The year is only a week old, but the focus has switched as inflation is making a comeback and survey indicators continue to come in higher than expected. The central bank just got its QE extension in on time ahead of the uptick in HICP rates, which of course come mainly on the back of base effects from energy prices. The calendar this week will not really add anything new to the outlook for 2017 and data are mainly backward looking with November production numbers from Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as final French December HICP readings. The latter are not expected to bring a major surprise and we expect the headline rate to be confirmed at 0.8% y/y, which is in line with consensus. The most up to date number is the initial estimate of full year 2016 GDP from Germany on Thursday, where we look for an acceleration in the overall growth to 1.9% from 1.7% in 2015.


    UK: Incoming data, particularly last week’s December PMI surveys yesterday, which smashed forecasts, continue to point to a robust economic rebound from the brief dip that was seen in the month or so following the vote to leave the EU last June. Sentiment in sterling markets has been correspondingly upbeat in early-year trading; the FTSE 100 equity index clocked record highs last week and the pound held its ground on foreign exchanges (though remains 17% below pre-EU vote levels). The calendar this week is highlighted by production figures for November (Wednesday). The BRC retail sales report for December is also up (Tuesday), along with November trades figures (Wednesday) and a smattering of house price data through the week. None of the data is likely to challenge prevailing sentiment.


    China: December CPI and PPI (tentatively due Tuesday) are penciled in at 2.1% y/y from 2.3% for the former, and 4.5% y/y from 3.3% for the latter. December new yuan loans (tentatively Tuesday) are expected to slip to CNY 700.0 bon from 794.6 bln. Trade data (due Thursday or Friday) should show modest improvement in the deficit to -$44.0 bln in December.


    Japan: Markets will be closed Monday for the “Coming of Age” holiday. The calendar picks up Tuesday with December consumer confidence, which we expect will improve slightly to 41.0 from 40.9. November’s current account surplus (Thursday) is forecast to have narrowed to JPY 1,400.0 bln from JPY 1,719.9 bln previously. December bank loans (Thursday) should be up 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in November.


    Australia: The calendar remains thin this week, Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to improve 0.5% following the identical 0.5% increase in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Projects are for steady rates from the RBA in 2017, as the economy gradually adjusts to the post-resource boom environment. The next RBA meeting is in February.




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #93
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    Date : 10th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were down, with Japan under pressure (closed down -0.79%at 19,301) as the Yen strengthened. The ASX is also in the red, while the Hang Seng outperformed ahead of economic data out of China later in the week. U.S. and European stock futures are heading sound after already being under pressure yesterday while oil prices are little changed, with the front end USOil future trading around the USD 52 per barrel mark. Bond futures remain supported as stock markets correct and while the drop in Sterling has for now underpinned the multinational dominated FTSE it may not be long before inflation concerns pick up again and weigh on Gilt futures. There is nothing in today’s calendar to shake up markets, with only inflation data out of Norway, French production and Swiss unemployment.


    FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-softer, losing moderately versus the euro and yen, but gaining versus a still-underperforming sterling. USDJPY logged a two-session low of 115.19 as Tokyo markets returned to the fray following a long weekend in Japan. The conjecture in the market is that higher oil prices and recent weakness in the yen have eroded BoJ easing expectations, which has shifted the relative yield dynamic. USDJPY’s low from last week at 115.07 is in the frame. A breach below here would put the pair in one-month low territory, and a daily close below here would signal a shift to a downside bias. Supports are at 114.77-80 and 114.40, the latter of which is the present situation of the 50-day moving average. EUR-USD clawed out a 12-day peak at 1.0627, before ebbing back under 1.0600 to the upper 1.05s. Cable traded softer versus yesterday’s closing levels, but remained above yesterday’s 10-week low at 1.2124 ,while EUR-GBP clocked a fresh eight-week high at 0.8735. Weakness in the pound was sparked by weekend remarks form PM May, who suggested that a “hard” Brexit is the course being set.


    Overnight Data: UK Shop price index rose more than expected to 1.0% in December as UK shoppers spent significantly more on food in the week before Christmas. Poor Retails sales figures for Australia failed to den the AUDUSD rally; Retail Sales grew only 0.2% in November against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Mixed data from China as PPI index beat expectations at 5.5% (4.5% expected) and CPI missed expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY when 0.3% and 2.3% were expected respectively. Better news from Japan as consumer confidence grew to 43.1 from 40.9 last time and beat expectations of 41.3 (consumer confidence in the US is expected at 98.5 on Friday)


    US Data Yesterday: US consumer credit surged $24.5 bln in November, stronger than expected, after a $16.2 bln increase in October (revised from $16.0 bln). Non-revolving credit paced the rise, jumping $13.5 bln versus $13.8 bln in October (revised from $13.7 bln). But, revolving credit was up a solid $11.0 compared to the prior $2.4 bln gain (revised from $2.3 bln) — it’s the largest increase in this measure since February 2001, with the record $19.5 bln increase set in April 1998.


    Fedspeak: Lockhart said it’s too early to estimate fiscal policy effects, in his written remarks. That’s a contrast from some of his colleagues who priced in some upside risk due to fiscal expectations. And he added it is unclear whether the economy is positioned for markedly higher growth. GDP is forecast at around 2% over the next few years, less optimistic than several others on the Committee, and below the markets’ hopes. Inflation is projected to move to 2.0% this year or next. He still looks for a gradual pace of rate hikes. It’s time for the FOMC to shift to “more of a support role” as the new administration comes into play.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Wholesale Trade – Wholesale trade data for November is out today and should reveal a 0.4% sales headline for the month with inventories up 0.9% as indicated by the advance economic indicators report. This follows respective October figures of 1.4% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio ticking up to 1.31 from 1.30 in October.


    Canada Housing Starts – Housing starts are expected to improve to a 190.0k unit rate in December from the 184.0k pace in November. The ever volatile multi-unit category was the source of the decline in total starts during November: multi-unit starts fell 7.7% to 105.9k in November while singe-detached units were steady at 60.9k. Underlying starts growth remained steady in November, as the six-month moving average was 199.1k from 199.6k in October. Permits, also due Tuesday, are expected to reveal a 5.0% drop in value during November after the 8.7% gain in October.




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #94
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    Date : 11th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian markets managed to move higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as stronger metals boosted miners. The Yen retreated, which helped to underpin gains in Japan, while mainland China underperformed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 51 per barrel, after the latest slump and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are down. Sterling up from recent lows, but still down against most currencies, which should continue to underpin equities, (UK100 closed at a record high for the ninth consecutive day yesterday) but is also reviving inflation concerns. This added to Gilt underperformance versus the Bund yesterday and saw yields moving higher. In the Eurozone spreads were volatile throughout the day yesterday, and yield curves steepened as the short end outperformed again, highlighting that as inflation is making a comeback, the ECB is struggling to get a grip on the long end despite QE, although the most recent dip in oil prices, if sustained should help to dampen inflation concerns somewhat and base effects should see headline rates peaking in Q1 this year, before falling back somewhat. The local calendar has U.K. trade and production data, as well as a German 10-year Bund sale, but markets will be looking mainly to Trump’s eagerly awaited press conference.


    FX Update: Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump’s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week’s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high at 118.66. EUR-USD has become entrenched in a narrow orbit of 1.0550, holding just below the 50-day moving average at 1.0571. We see Trump’s conference as something of a wildcard, though there is a chance he will manage to reignite the Trumpflation rally. This would follow bond guru Gross remarks of yesterday, where he argued that a sustained break in the U.S. T-note yield above 2.60% — which Gross reckons is much more important than Dow 20,000, $60-a-barrel oil or parity in EUR-USD — would mark the beginning of a “secular bear bond market.” Such a scenario would fuel another upward adjustment in dollar valuations against most other currencies.


    Kuroda and Abe meet: BOJ’s Kuroda says meeting with Abe was a regular one and they discussed the global economy, specifically the US economy. They touched on Trump but no actual reference was made to the president-elect and both see the US economy growing “steadily”. No reference or report on the FOMC rate hike cycle. USDJPY continues to pivot around the 116.00 handle.


    Overnight Data: The U.S. wholesale report was modestly disappointing, with a 0.4% November sales rise after a downwardly-revised 1.1% (was 1.4%) price-led October surge, alongside a 1.0% inventory gain that exceeded the 0.9% increase in the advance indicators report, following a 0.1% drop in October. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in November but are still outpacing inventories overall in Q4 as oil prices rebound, following Q3 weakening in both sales and inventories. The Q4 GDP growth estimate has increased slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, but this trims Q1 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.4%. Expectations are now for a $14 (was $10) bln inventory addition and a still-lean $21 bln accumulation rate that extends the $16.5 bln bounce in Q3, as inventories are now reversing a big five quarter inventory headwind that culminated in a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 71k to 5,522k in November after dropping 180k to 5,451k (revised down from 5,534k). The rate edged up to 3.7% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). November hirings rose 59k to 5,219k following the 39k increase to 5,160k (revised from 5,099k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (October was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 41k to 3,064k from -29k to 3,023k (revised from 2,986k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. The JOLTS report is an important one to Fed Chair Yellen, but this is rather old news for the markets and hence didn’t move the ticker.


    Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker announced his retirement for October 1 on the Richmond Fed’s website. He’s been the bank’s president since August 2004, but has been with the Richmond Fed since 1989. He has also been a serial dissenter, opposing the consensus in all of his voting turns. In his last stint in 2015 he dissented twice against the consensus unchanged policy stance. And back in 2012 he opposed the FOMC’s outcome in all 8 meetings. He was the lone opponent in 2009, but it was with respect to QE and the purchase of Treasuries. But back in 2006 he dissented four times, each for a 25 bp hike. There’s going to be a lot of turnover at the Fed during Mr. Trump’s administration. He has two open governorships, while Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart already announced he’ll be stepping down in February. Meanwhile, Chair Yellen has indicated she plans to continue through her term which ends early in 2018.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Donald Trump Press Conference – Scheduled for 16;00 GMT. No a data release but by far the most significant event of the day. A wide ranging event is expected including Tax reform, immigration controls and reference to the Wall and climate change. Of particular interest to traders will be the incoming administrations (Mr Trump specifically) approach to trade and the impact particularly on the Mexican and Chinese currencies. Trade War Round 1?




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #95
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    Date : 12th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, with Japan underperforming and the Nikkei closing with a 1.19% loss as the strength of the yen weighed on exporters. The first press conference of the incoming U.S. administration disappointed and initially sparked a fresh bout of volatility, with investors taking a wait and see stance now to get a clearer picture of what lies in store going ahead. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south and the Bund future, which outperformed yesterday, lost much of its gains during the PM session. Eurozone spreads narrowed yesterday and the German yield curve flattened as the short end underperformed, while the U.K. yield curve steepened on short end outperformance. Today’s calendar has the first estimate of German 2016 GDP, seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in 2015. The calendar also has Eurozone production data for November, as well as the final reading of French December HICP and the ECB’s minutes for the Dec meeting.


    The Dollar got Donalded: Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said. That would certainly explain his skepticism about the intelligence community’s motivations and secrecy. His conference roamed wildly across the range from fake news, to reaffirming the Mexico wall will remain an urgent priority (the peso plunged through 22.0), along with the relationship with Russia, Pharma pricing, hacking protections, the Trump Trust, Veteran’s affairs, etc. The conference was wide ranging and characteristically frank, leaving the press on their heels and markets chomping in ranges, but not essentially charting a new course. He was all rather vague and the markets reacted accordingly, the USD fell from its heady heights and continued to decline overnight. EURUSD sits at 1.0630, USDJPY under 114.50 (at one month lows) and Cable over 1.2240.


    Carney: BoE Governor Carney said Brexit-related risks have “gone down” during testimony, in terms of what he described as the immediate scale of risks, before a parliamentary select committee. However, he warned that a disorderly Brexit process, where there is no transitional arrangements, could lead to “unforeseeable moves in markets.”


    Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on reforming the culture in banking, in his written text on “Remarks at the Culture Imperative — An Interbank Symposium.” He noted the NY Fed was prompted to work on this issue after the LIBOR manipulations and misconduct highlighted the importance of culture. He believes evidence points to an industry wide problem, across firms and countries. Also, he stressed that reforms must be industry driven, while not denying the importance of regulation. He did not discuss monetary policy.


    Main Macro Events Today


    German 2016 GDP The first estimate for full year 2016 GDP is as usual released before the Q4 numbers are out, but with expectations for a robust fourth quarter growth rate, is widely seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in the previous year. The numbers will confirm that Germany is on a solid growth path, and confidence indicators suggest that this will remain the case in the first quarter this year, although going ahead, there are numerous downside risk.


    US Import & Export Prices December trade price data should reveal a 0.7% increase for headline import prices and a 0.2% decline for export prices on the month. This follows respective November figures which had import prices down 0.3% with export prices down 0.1% for the month. Oil prices resumed there rebound in December so there is some upside risk to import prices.


    US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of January should reveal a 252k headline, up from last week’s 235k which marked a low extending all the way back to the1970’s. Claims are expected to average 258k in January, about matching December’s 257k average and up from 252k in November.




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #96
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    Date : 13th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Aftershocks from President-elect Trump’s campaign-like press conference, which had weighed on global stock markets and yields started to recede late in the U.S. session and U.S. equities managed to recover part of their losses. Asian markets rebounded led by Japan as the Yen weakened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher, while the front end Nymex future is trading around USD 53 per barrel. Bund futures already started to head south in the after hour session yesterday and core yields are likely to move higher in early trade. The European calendar only has the BoE’s credit conditions survey and the final reading for Spanish December HICP, leaving markets to focus on global developments.


    FX Update: The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EURUSD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an intraday low in Asia at 1.0603, but still remains some 50 pips below yesterday’s one-month peak. While doubts have now crept in about U.S. president-elect Trump’s reflation plans following his fractious press conference on Wednesday, returning some support to the dollar have been Fed speakers, who were not been shy yesterday in warning of upside risks to policy in 2017, with the debate hottest over how quickly to hike rather than when to do so. Another batch of U.S. data today will help shape Fed policy expectations, though Trump may have his work cut out to reignite the sputtering Trumpflation trade.


    U.S. Reports revealed surprising firmness in December export prices alongside a restrained oil-boost to import prices, and a largely expected 10k rise in initial claims to a still-firm 247k that signals a tight start for 2017. For trade prices, the relative firmness in export versus import prices trimmed Q4 GDP growth prospects, though we left our estimate at 1.6%. For claims, gyrations through the New Year’s week can be attributed to holiday volatility, though we’re encouraged that claims are starting January below the 258k December average. Next week’s BLS survey week reading will likely undershoot the 275k December BLS survey week figure. We expect a 180k January nonfarm payroll rise that matches the average monthly gain in 2016, though this average faces a likely downward bump with the next report’s annual revisions.


    Fedspeak: Chair Yellen’s speech contained surprises and keynote comment was that sh e thought “short term I would say I don’t think there are serious obstacles. I see the economy as doing quite well” Fed’s Bullard maintained a rather circumspect outlook on policy and the economy. He projects only limited movement in rates, reiterating his views noted earlier of perhaps only 1 tightening this year and noting there is little reason to alter policy as the Fed nears its goals. There shouldn’t be any undue pick up in inflation. Job growth is likely to slow this year and next. And in terms of the new administration’s policies, he said it’s questionable what will actually occur. Bullard is not a voter this year. Kaplan: Fed should be removing accommodation in 2017, with growth forecast at greater than 2%, even without any fiscal boost. The U.S. is pretty near full employment and inflation is heading to 2%, though there’s some slack in the labor market and more demand than supply for skilled workers. He expects regulatory review and tax reform to help boost productivity, along with infrastructure investment. Kaplan said he will be scrutinizing decisions on trade, immigration and Obamacare for any impact on growth, while manufacturing plants need to be allowed flexibility in supply chains. This about par for the course, with the Fed evidently predisposed to normalize rates in 2017 all else equal.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Retail Sales – December retail sales data is out today expectations are for a 0.7% headline with the ex-autos aggregate up median 0.5% on the month. This follows November data which had the headline up 0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%.


    US PPI Data – December PPI data has expectations to post a 0.3% with the core index up 0.2% on the month. This compares to respective November figures which posted a 0.4% headline and a 0.4% increase for the core. Despite the fact that oil prices remain at depressed levels we did see a 14.0% climb in WTI prices in December which could lend some support to the headline.


    US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on January Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 98.5 (median 98.4) from 98.2 in December and 93.8 in November. Consumer confidence measures have been posting improvements since the election and the January IBD/TIPP poll has already reveal an increase for the month with a rise to 55.6 from 54.8 in December.






    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #97
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    Date : 16th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.






    Main Macro Events This Week


    U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. This will be a busy week for traders, with the inauguration of president-elect Trump on Friday headlining. While that won’t be market moving in and of itself, investors and traders anxiously await clarity his ambitious agenda to be outlined in his 100-day plan once he assumes office.


    United States: This week’s data calendar is busy and includes several important releases. The December CPI report (Wednesday) will be key after the surge in the inflation expectations. Also on tap this week is December industrial production (Wednesday). The Empire State data (Tuesday) and The Philly Fed reading (Thursday) will be watched closed as these are as close to real time indicators as possible. December housing starts (Thursday) and other data this week includes the January NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Wednesday), and November Treasury capital flows (Wednesday).


    Fedspeak: Considerable Fed presence this week; Chair Yellen will make two appearances (Wednesday & Thursday), Dudley (Tuesday). Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari both (Wednesday). Fed’s Harker, a voter, speaks on the economic outlook (Friday). Also, Williams will give closing remarks (Friday) at the Bay Area Council meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed releases its Beige Book (Wednesday) for the January 31, February 1 FOMC meeting. It will be interesting to see what references are made regarding the post-Trump surge in equities and the pick-up in several of the manufacturing and sentiment numbers.


    Canada: The main event is the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday). Expectations are for no change to the 0.50% rate. Manufacturing (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% rise in shipments after the 0.8% drop in October. The December CPI (Friday) is projected to be unchanged. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October.


    Europe: The focus this week is on the first ECB meeting of the year. Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold. German PPI inflation (Friday) is expected to jump to a 0.9% y/y clip from 0.1% y/y, and the data will confirm that for at least Germany. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for January is due (Tuesday) and is expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. Other data releases include Eurozone trade and BoP numbers for December, which will be too backward looking to change the overall outlook.


    UK: December inflation data (Tuesday), labour market figures covering November and December (Wednesday), and official December retail sales (Friday). Carney speaks Monday and PM May on Wednesday at Davos; these two could be fundamental to the performance of Sterling this week.


    China: Releases are back loaded to Friday. Q4 GDP highlights and is expected to print a 6.7% y/y rate, unchanged from Q3 clip. In fact, 6.7% has been the reported rate of growth for each of the three quarters of 2016 so far. December industrial output is forecast at 6.0% y/y, slightly slower than the 6.2% seen previously, and would be the slowest since July. December retail sales are penciled in at a still robust 10.6% y/y from 10.8% in November. And, December fixed investment is seen at a 8.2% y/y rate, little changed from 8.3% previously.


    Japan: Revised November industrial production is due (Tuesday), having originally posted a 1.5% monthly gain.


    Australia: The calendar has the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in December following the 39.1k rise in November. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.7%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in November after the 0.8% decline in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #98
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 17th January 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan and ASX heading south amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister May will announce plans for a hard Brexit at today’s keynote speech. Yen strength is also continuing to put pressure on the Japanese markets. Mainland Chinese markets meanwhile mostly managed to pair losses in late trade and the CSI 300 is currently unchanged on the day while the Hang Seng is up 0.48%.Oil prices are little changed on the day, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.30 per barrel and Gold benefiting from the risk on mood trading at USD 1212. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, after European markets already closed in the red yesterday, while core bond yields came off, with Sterling weakness for once not weighing on Gilt futures, which outperformed yesterday as inflation considerations are balanced with the risks of weaker growth going ahead as the U.K. seems to be heading for an exit from the single market. May’s speech aside today’s calendar includes U.K. inflation data for December, as well as German ZEW investor confidence (see below)


    Canada Home Sales: Existing home sales improved 2.2% m/m in December after the 5.3% tumble in November’s seasonally adjusted home sales. The pull-back in November was the largest one month decline in 4 years and corresponded with the implementation of tightened mortgage regulations. The increase in December is contrary to expectations for another decline. But total actual (not seasonally adjusted sales) fell 5.0% compared to the level in December of 2015. New listing fell 3.0% in December versus November. Prices continued to climb on an annual basis: the MLS HPI was 14.2% higher y/y in December while the national average sales price grew 3.5% y/y.


    Davos Speak: (From the BBC) – The big draw at the World Economic Forum in Davos today is Chinese president Xi Jinping who will officially open the event this morning. It is the first time a leader from China has attended the event. Early afternoon, Anthony Scaramucci, a member of US president-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, will talk about the outlook for America. Shortly afterwards, the outgoing US secretary of state, John Kerry, will discuss “diplomacy in an era of disruption”. Then Satya Nadella, the chief executive of Microsoft, will tackle the issue of artificial intelligence alongside Zhang Ya-Qin, boss of China search engine giant Baidu. Other highlights include The Future of Finance: John Cryan, the boss of the troubled Deutsche Bank takes part in a panel discussion on where now for the industry and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz will examine how to end corruption.


    ECB’s Praet: ECB policy was focused on avoiding deflation trap. The Executive Board member said at a conference in Paris late yesterday that the “when you have a very slow growth rate with an increase in unemployment for a long period of time, you get into a sort of vicious circle. You have to use the tools that you have to support demand”. Praet said that “it has been key from the central bank point of view to avoid the de-anchoring of inflation expectations” with ECB policy “driven by the mandate and by avoiding that we fall into a sort of deflationary trap”.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK CPI & PPI – 09:30 GMT – YoY UK CPI data is expected to increase to 1.4% from 1.2% last time, with the Core figure up to 1.5% from 1.4%. MoM for December expected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2%. PPI figures also released at the same time this morning with input figures expected to increase to 2.2% from -1.1% last time and output figures expected to increase to 0.3% for 0.0% last time.
    German ZEW – 10:00 GMT – December expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. This would be consistent with a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of this year after a broadly similar number in Q4 2016.
    UK PM May Speech – 11:45 GMT – Expected to outline 12 key points for UK’s exit from the EU. No “half in, half out measures”. Prerelease of speech from Downing Street overnight.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 
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